Direction and Major Tasks of South Korean Diplomacy in the 2010s

The East Asia Institute (EAI) hosted the 14th InfraVision Forum on March 22, 2011, inviting Shin Kak-soo, former First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, to explore the direction South Korean diplomacy should pursue over the next decade under the theme “Direction and Major Tasks of South Korean Diplomacy in the 2010s.” Based on an analysis of the South Korean diplomatic environment, former Vice Minister Shin presented the future direction and major tasks for Korean diplomacy, followed by a Q&A session with the discussants. The presentation and main discussion points are as follows.

Environment of South Korean Diplomacy

Trends in International Order Change

The post-Cold War unipolar system has transformed into a multi-layered multipolar system, and particularly since the 2008 global economic crisis, the advent of the Asian and Pacific eras has been accelerated.

Various global issues such as food, energy, and water are spreading, blurring the distinction between domestic and international issues. Meanwhile, the issue of global governance is becoming increasingly important due to structural transformations in international politics.

The phenomenon of the ubiquity of information subjects is emerging through media such as TGIF (Twitter, Google, iPhone, Facebook), and the importance of complex networks is increasing with the rise of various non-state actors.

Northeast Asian and East Asian Order

The rise of China and the US's re-engagement in Asia have led to increased cooperation and competition between the two powers. Given the existing mutual suspicion regarding intentions, it remains uncertain whether US-China relations will stabilize in the future.

While the decline of Japan and Russia is evident, Russia harbors a strong will to regain its past glory. If the Putin administration regains power after 2012, Russian foreign policy is likely to become more dynamic.

Despite various uncertainties, Northeast and East Asia are experiencing gradual progress in a loosely structured, open regionalism.

North Korean Dynamics

Instability is increasing due to four major adverse factors: the hereditary succession of power across three generations, structural economic difficulties, diplomatic isolation, and growing internal discontent. In particular, the succession process for Kim Jong-un has been less thorough compared to Kim Jong-il's succession, and the military's influence has strengthened due to the prolonged 'military-first' policy. Coupled with the influx of external information, the Kim Jong-un succession regime faces significant challenges.

Due to the worsening internal and external environment, North Korea no longer views nuclear weapons as a diplomatic card but as the sole means of survival, thus significantly narrowing the window of opportunity for resolving the North Korean nuclear issue.

Currently, North Korea is more likely to pursue 'muddling through' rather than 'reform' or 'internal collapse.' However, it remains questionable how long the regime can maintain its rule in the long term given the increasing internal contradictions.

Changes in South Korea's Status

South Korea secured an overwhelming advantage in inter-Korean competition long ago. Notably, the Lee Myung-bak administration has pursued an active foreign policy (Global Korea) based on its capabilities as a middle power.

Direction and Major Tasks of South Korean Diplomacy

Harmonizing the ROK-US Alliance and ROK-China Strategic Cooperative Partnership: Aligning with the US and Harmonizing with China (Yeonmihwajung 聯美和中)

Public diplomacy must be strengthened to ensure that the importance of the ROK-US alliance is shared across both societies.

Greater effort than currently exerted is needed to mature the strategic partnership with China. In particular, as debates regarding North Korea's strategic value are ongoing within China, patience is required to persuade China of our position until it shifts its direction.

China's stance on North Korean issues within the UN Security Council and the Six-Party Talks is significantly influenced by Russia's actions. Therefore, to strengthen leverage over China, Russia must be effectively utilized. Russia has the issue of the Northern Territories with Japan and fears the expansion of Chinese influence in the Far East, thus inwardly desiring improved relations with South Korea. This situation should be leveraged to guide Russia's policy toward the Korean Peninsula in a direction favorable to South Korea.

The success of Yeonmihwajung hinges on managing US-China relations in a constructive direction. Fundamentally, the lack of trust between the US and China is the issue. Therefore, moving away from specific contentious issues, including North Korea, South Korea should consider initiating forums, led by South Korea, to build trust between the US and China in less sensitive areas such as non-traditional security issues.

Resolving the North Korean Nuclear Issue and Developing Unification Diplomacy

Consideration is needed on how South Korea should respond if North Korea makes a strategic decision to abandon its nuclear program, or if it refuses to do so and resorts to delaying tactics.

If the Six-Party Talks are resumed, the South Korean government is expected to pursue a Grand Bargain and a Two-Track policy. Discussions are needed on the specific contents to be proposed through the Grand Bargain, and a coordination strategy for the tug-of-war between North Korea and the five parties, as well as within the five parties, must be prepared.

During the German unification, the Soviet Union, which supported East Germany, was in decline. However, China, which supports North Korea, is currently rising, posing a structural challenge to pursuing unification.

Since unification could occur regardless of our intentions, it is necessary to pursue unification based on South Korean values, national integration, and strengthening security posture, while simultaneously employing a dual policy of principled engagement and preparation for sudden contingencies.

Securing Middle Power Status and Strengthening Networks

South Korea should develop a Korean-style middle power diplomacy by benchmarking middle powers such as the Netherlands, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, and Canada.

It is anticipated that the global governance system, including the UN Security Council and the G20 framework, will be reorganized within the next 5-10 years. It is crucial for South Korea to be included in the establishment of this new system and secure a status commensurate with its national strength.

As Asia has not yet exerted influence as a cohesive regional group, South Korea must proactively form various groups to which it belongs. Therefore, a strategy to build and strengthen complex networks is necessary.

South Korea is often perceived internationally as a subordinate to China and Japan. Therefore, it is essential to increase soft power assets by developing a distinct Korean brand.

Securing a Safe Environment as a Trading Nation

Given the difficulty in concluding the Doha Round, it is necessary to establish multifaceted trade and investment liberalization measures, pursue energy and resource security strategies suitable for South Korea's situation from a medium- to long-term perspective, and make greater efforts to secure maritime transport routes through naval power enhancement.

Improving South Korea's Diplomatic System

Just as US diplomacy integrates the capabilities of the private sector into its diplomatic capacity and leads the global diplomatic stage, South Korea needs to establish a public-private joint committee to redefine the concept and direction of 21st-century Korean diplomacy and explore ways to improve the overall South Korean diplomatic system.

While an urgent expansion of limited diplomatic personnel is necessary, a vocational training system must also be established to cultivate talent suitable for building the complex networks required for Korean diplomacy, thereby enhancing overall diplomatic capabilities.

It is necessary to establish Korean values that can achieve bipartisan consensus. This includes democracy, capitalism, market economy, humanism, and culturalism, and it is essential to build a Korean diplomatic philosophy that reflects South Korea's unique experience of remarkable growth in a short period.

Middle powers like South Korea, which have great powers as neighbors, have vital interests in diplomacy, thus requiring greater emphasis on foreign policy than currently provided. To this end, the control and coordination functions within the diplomatic sphere need to be strengthened, and the system should be reformed to respond more agilely and efficiently to external issues.■

Shin Kak-soo, former First Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, graduated from Seoul National University with a degree in Law and obtained a Ph.D. in International Law from the same university. After passing the 9th Foreign Service Examination in 1977, he served as a secretary at the Embassy in Japan, Director of the Northeast Asia Division I, Counselor and Deputy Chief of Mission at the Permanent Mission to the UN, Director-General of the Treaties Bureau, and Ambassador to Israel, before serving as Second Vice Minister and First Vice Minister.

Moderator

Lee Sook-jong, President of the East Asia Institute

Discussants

Ma Sang-yoon, Professor at Catholic University of Korea

Shin Bum-sik, Professor at Seoul National University

Lee Dong-hwi, Professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security

Chun Jae-sung, Professor at Seoul National University

Joo Jae-woo, Professor at Kyung Hee University

Choi Kang, Professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security