Was the Cheonan Incident a Variable in the Local Elections?

EAI OPINION Review No. 201006-01

Jointly by EAI ∙ SBS ∙ JoongAng Ilbo ∙ Hankook Research

Based on the Analysis of Data from the 5th National Panel Survey for the 5th Local Elections (2010/05-06)

Introduction

The recent local elections garnered significant media attention throughout the campaign period, to the extent that they could be described as having started and ended with the Cheonan incident. Given that the elections were held mid-term for the Lee Myung-bak administration, they were initially expected to be disadvantageous for the government and the ruling party. However, the outbreak of the security issue concerning the Cheonan incident was seen as creating a favorable environment for the ruling party. In other words, the Cheonan incident was expected to act as a form of 'North Wind' (북풍) that would aid the Grand National Party. Furthermore, criticism arose that the government and ruling party attempted to exploit the heightened military tensions caused by the Cheonan incident for electoral gain, as the investigation team's announcement regarding the incident coincided with the official start of the election campaign, and President Lee Myung-bak's address to the nation was delivered at the War Memorial of Korea. Amidst these various controversies surrounding the Cheonan incident, the local elections concluded with a devastating defeat for the Grand National Party. This paper aims to examine how the Cheonan issue, a subject of political controversy, actually influenced voters' choices in the elections.

Major Issues Affecting the Elections

Before examining the impact of the Cheonan incident on the elections, we will explore how significant various issues raised during the campaign period were in voters' decision-making. Table 1 summarizes the response rates to the question of whether each issue was considered when deciding on a candidate for the metropolitan mayoralty election. Table 1 presents very interesting results.

Although the Cheonan incident virtually dominated major media outlets such as newspapers and broadcasts, the proportion of people who actually considered the Cheonan incident when making their voting decision was lower compared to other issues. In the first survey conducted before the election, free school meals for elementary and middle school students garnered high interest, followed by the Four Major Rivers Project, then Sejong City, then the disclosure of teachers' union membership lists, and fifthly, the Cheonan incident. The second survey conducted after the election showed a similar order, with the order of free school meals and the Four Major Rivers Project reversed, and the Cheonan incident also ranked fifth in terms of consideration. This indicates that issues that had a greater impact on daily life, such as free school meals, the Four Major Rivers Project, and education, influenced voters more than 'political' issues like the Cheonan incident or the first anniversary of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death. The importance of 'life-style politics' was highlighted.

[Table 1] Proportion of Respondents Who Considered Each Issue When Deciding on a Candidate

Interestingly, this trend appears regardless of party affiliation. As shown in Table 2, among those who supported the Grand National Party candidate for metropolitan mayor, 59.6% responded that they did not consider the Cheonan incident. This proportion, while not a huge difference, was higher than the 51.8% who responded that they did not consider the issue among those who voted for the Democratic Party candidate. Overall, despite the sensational media coverage, the impact of the Cheonan incident on voting appears to have been limited.

[Table 2] Consideration of the Cheonan Incident by Party Affiliation for Metropolitan Mayor Candidates

One point worth noting here is that the response indicating consideration of the Cheonan incident was higher among those who voted for the Democratic Party candidate in Table 2. Given that opposition party supporters were more likely to consider this issue, it is possible that the incident had an adverse effect on the Grand National Party. To confirm this characteristic more clearly, Table 3 compares the proportion of respondents who considered the Cheonan incident when voting, by age group. Interestingly, as age increased, the proportion of respondents who considered the Cheonan incident when choosing a candidate decreased. Among the younger demographic aged 19-29, the proportion who considered it was 55.5%, whereas among those aged 40-50, it remained around 35%-39%. Considering the previous election trend where older demographics tended to react more sensitively to issues related to North Korea or national security, the higher proportion of younger respondents considering the Cheonan incident is somewhat unexpected. As pointed out earlier, this response pattern suggests that the Cheonan incident influenced voting decisions in a different way than in the past.

[Table 3] Consideration of the Cheonan Incident by Age Group

Was the Cheonan Incident a 'North Wind'?

In previous elections, North Korean issues generally benefited the incumbent party, especially conservative ones. For this reason, the Cheonan incident, which was attributed to North Korea, was also expected to create a favorable environment for the ruling Grand National Party. However, as seen in the previous section, the impact of the Cheonan incident was considerably limited, and its effects manifested in ways somewhat different from the past. A higher proportion of opposition party supporters reported considering the issue, and younger voters showed a higher response rate for considering the Cheonan incident. The actual election results, unlike past 'North Winds,' did not prevent the ruling party's defeat. Therefore, to which political party did the Cheonan incident prove more advantageous?

Table 4 summarizes the responses regarding whether the Cheonan incident influenced changes in voting behavior, and the results are noteworthy. Approximately three-quarters of all respondents, 70.0%, indicated that they did not change their preferred candidate, suggesting they were not influenced by the issue. Excluding 'Don't know/No answer' (2.6%), about 27% responded that they changed their original voting decision due to the Cheonan incident. Among these, the largest proportion, 12.7%, indicated a 'shift in support from the ruling party to an opposition candidate.' In contrast, the proportion of respondents who stated they 'shifted support from the opposition to the ruling party due to the Cheonan incident' was only 2.4%. In other words, the Cheonan incident had a greater impact on shifting support towards the opposition than towards the ruling party. Meanwhile, when including respondents who shifted their support to ruling or opposition candidates from among those who had no preferred candidate, the proportion who shifted to supporting the opposition due to the Cheonan incident was 16.8%, while the proportion who shifted to supporting the ruling party was 6.4%. While past 'North Winds' in electoral strategy benefited the incumbent party, the Cheonan incident this time, conversely, benefited the opposition party. The public interpretation that the 'North Wind' of the Cheonan incident became a headwind in the elections is confirmed by the results in Table 4.

[Table 4] Changes in Voting Behavior Due to the Cheonan Incident

Why, then, did the Cheonan incident have an adverse effect on the ruling Grand National Party, contrary to initial expectations? One possible reason is that the public may have been dissatisfied with the ruling party's attempt to exploit the Cheonan incident for electoral purposes. In other words, the attempt to politically utilize the 'North Wind' may have generated backlash. To verify this, we examined responses to the question of whether the government intended to use the announcement of the Cheonan sinking to influence the local elections, broken down by the party voted for in the metropolitan mayoralty election. Table 5 clearly shows that voters' perceptions of the Cheonan incident varied significantly depending on the party they voted for. Overall, the response indicating a political intention was relatively high, with 69.3% of all respondents believing there was an intention to politically exploit the Cheonan incident. However, among voters who supported the Grand National Party candidate, more than half, 58.1%, believed there was no political intention. In contrast, among voters who supported the Democratic Party candidate, almost all, 90.9%, believed the Cheonan incident was exploited with political intent. While past 'North Winds' were effective in mobilizing conservative and ruling-party-leaning voters, the results in Table 5 suggest that this time, it had the opposite effect of mobilizing opposition supporters.

[Table 5] Responses Regarding Political Intent of the Cheonan Incident by Party Affiliation

To further confirm this characteristic, we examined attitudes toward the political intent of the Cheonan incident based on evaluations of the Lee Myung-bak administration's performance. The results in Table 6 summarize the response rates regarding the political intent of the Cheonan incident in relation to the evaluation of President Lee's performance. Among those who positively evaluated President Lee's administration, 58.3% answered that there was no political intent. However, the majority of those with a negative view of the administration, 90.0%, responded that the announcement of the Cheonan incident had political intent. Interestingly, the results in Table 6 are very similar to those in Table 5, but given that the number of respondents with a negative evaluation of the Lee Myung-bak administration is larger, it can be inferred that the handling of the Cheonan incident had a significantly adverse effect on the ruling Grand National Party.

[Table 6] Responses Regarding Political Intent of the Cheonan Incident by Evaluation of State Administration

What Went Wrong?

As we have seen, the Cheonan incident appears to have had the opposite effect of helping the ruling party in the elections, unlike past 'North Winds.' While various factors such as the post-Cold War era, ten years of inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation, and significant differences in economic power between North and South Korea may have contributed to this deviation from past trends, another reason seems to be the Grand National Party's failure to grasp the agenda that the Korean public desires today. Firstly, regarding North Korea policy, despite provocative actions like the Cheonan incident, the long-term direction desired by the majority of the public was not hardline confrontation but rather strengthening inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation. Table 7 presents responses regarding the desired direction of inter-Korean policy, surveyed in the second round after the local elections.

[Table 7] Desired Direction of Inter-Korean Policy

Despite the Cheonan incident, 61.5% of all respondents desired strengthened inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation. Only 37.1% advocated for a hardline approach. This suggests that pushing policy towards a hardline stance, with mentions of war during the handling of the Cheonan incident leading up to the elections, did not significantly benefit the Grand National Party.

However, the response rates differed based on the party affiliation of the candidate voted for. While 54.4% of those who voted for the Grand National Party desired a hardline approach, 78.8% of those who voted for the Democratic Party desired strengthened reconciliation and cooperation. Given the reduction in the Grand National Party's support in the actual election results, the Cheonan incident and the subsequent hardline stance appear to have hindered the expansion of the Grand National Party's support base. Response patterns also showed considerable differences by age group. Of course, it is noteworthy that regardless of age group, strengthening reconciliation and cooperation received a higher response rate than hardline confrontation. However, among young voters aged 19-29, 69.2% desired strengthened reconciliation and cooperation, while this figure was 57.4% among those aged 60 and above. It is highly probable that the Cheonan incident and the subsequent hardline policy caused significant dissatisfaction among young voters.

Another issue concerns the nature of the policies that voters desired at the time of the election. The government and the ruling party likely intended to prioritize national security issues due to the Cheonan incident. However, expectations regarding national security issues were unexpectedly low. Table 8 summarizes the themes of national policy tasks that the government should prioritize in the future. Despite the Cheonan incident, only 3.2% responded with strengthening national security. Instead, the response for improving inter-Korean relations, which is in the opposite direction, was relatively high at 10.0%. The tasks with the highest response rates were resolving economic polarization, followed by economic growth and national integration. In other words, the issues that many voters were interested in during the local elections were not related to national security. Despite the Cheonan incident, the agendas that were actually desired were socio-economic issues such as resolving polarization, national integration, and economic growth. This reaffirms the growing importance of 'life politics' observed in Table 1. However, the government and the ruling party made a judgment error by focusing on security issues during the election period, contrary to the voters' wishes, and failing to adequately address those demands.

[Table 8] Government's Top Priority National Policy Tasks

Conclusion

The 2010 local elections yielded many interesting results in various aspects. Among them, the Cheonan incident is particularly noteworthy for producing results entirely different from similar phenomena in the past. As mentioned earlier, the sinking of the Cheonan was at the center of social attention throughout the local election period. With its attribution to North Korea, North Korea once again emerged as a significant variable in Korean elections. As observed in this paper, regardless of the government and ruling party's actual intentions, the Cheonan incident was perceived by voters as another 'North Wind.' However, the 'North Wind' strategy received less attention compared to other issues and, in fact, backfired, leading to a partial defection of support from the Grand National Party and a consolidation of votes for the Democratic Party.

The reason for the 'North Wind' backfiring is that the government and ruling party's handling of the Cheonan incident was perceived as politically motivated, casting doubt on its sincerity, and because a majority of voters ultimately desired a direction of reconciliation and cooperation rather than hardline confrontation in North Korea policy. The most fundamental reason is that the national policy tasks that the public urgently desires today are issues related to real life, such as resolving polarization, economic growth, and national integration. However, by focusing on the security issue of the Cheonan incident, the government and ruling party failed to adequately respond to those demands. The controversy and outcome of the Cheonan incident in the local elections clearly demonstrate how crucial a correct understanding of the changing times is for political success. ■