[EAI-CISS NASD 2008] Sino-Korean Relations and North Korea: Towards a Developmental Trilateral Relationship

EAI-CISS Joint Sino-Korean Dialogue on North Korean Security

Expert Panel

Security Briefings Series No.1-2

Professor Chun Jae-sung, Seoul National University

Introduction

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, Sino-Korean relations have achieved remarkable development in all areas. The two countries have not only pursued quantitative development in economic, social, and cultural spheres but have also aimed for qualitative leaps by establishing a "strategic cooperative partnership" last spring. China seeks to play the role of a "responsible great power" not only in the East Asian region in the 21st century but also globally, while South Korea aims to emerge as a "global middle power" based on democracy and economic development. It is true that there are many commonalities between the national strategies of China, a responsible great power, and South Korea, a global middle power. This is because both South Korea and China desire for international politics in Northeast Asia to move beyond a balance of power and interests towards a foundation of cooperative multilateralism, and they aspire for a secure and prosperous Northeast Asia, not only in terms of traditional security but also in the realm of human security.

North Korea poses various difficult challenges in the process of mutual cooperation in the region and globally. South Korea seeks to overcome North Korea's military threat, peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, and facilitate North Korea's normal integration into the international community, beyond establishing diplomatic relations with major countries like the United States and Japan. To this end, South Korea is striving to strengthen international aid to North Korea for its future, as well as engaging in the Six-Party Talks. China, for its part, also encourages North Korea's normal development for peaceful economic growth and regional stability, actively cooperates with neighboring countries to prevent security threats to the region, and promotes stability in North Korea through economic assistance.

The issue is that North Korea is gradually entering a period of fundamental change. Since the collapse of the communist bloc, North Korea has adhered to a "strong and prosperous nation" line, adopting a military-centered approach to economic and social development. Furthermore, by developing nuclear weapons and missiles, it poses security threats to neighboring countries, seeking to establish diplomatic relations and peace negotiations with countries like the United States, and thereby guarantee its regime's security. However, amidst these efforts, North Korea's economy is gradually collapsing, and discussions are emerging about a partial erosion of public support. Most importantly, with the weakening health of Chairman Kim Jong-il, a transfer of power in North Korea is becoming inevitable. The national strategy that the future political leadership of North Korea will pursue is a matter of significant interest not only to South Korea and China but also to East Asia and the world.

South Korea and China are presented with an opportunity to solidify their strategic cooperative relationship by jointly contemplating and responding to North Korea's future. By sharing a strategic understanding of North Korea's future, both countries can contribute to security at the trilateral level of South-North Korea-China, as well as at the regional level of Northeast Asia and, furthermore, at the global level. This paper will examine how South Korea and China can strengthen their cooperation regarding fundamental strategy, the North Korean nuclear issue, the Korean Peninsula peace structure, and future unification, while jointly considering North Korea's future.

National Strategies of South Korea and China

Both South Korea and China appear to be at a turning point in their national and foreign policy strategies. South Korea is striving to transition from being a relative minor power and developing country in Northeast Asia to assuming the status and role of a global middle power and a facilitator of cooperation in Northeast Asia. China, having overcome its history as a semi-colony subjected to imperialist aggression, is moving beyond its national strategy as a rapidly developing country to emerge as a responsible great power not only in Asia but also globally.

In the rapidly changing power dynamics of international politics in the 21st century, the extent to which South Korea and China can emerge as middle and great powers, and whether these strategic objectives can harmonize and create synergy, is a matter of significant interest and a desired outcome for both countries. Unlike the past, the 21st century, characterized by the major trends of globalization, democratization, and informatization, requires not only military and economic strength for true national power enhancement. It is a new era where development in soft power, such as ideology, institutions, and culture, must occur concurrently, and a comprehensive diplomacy encompassing not only the government of the counterpart country but also civil society and international institutions (governance) must be pursued.

The Lee Myung-bak administration in South Korea has set forth the foreign policy objective of becoming a global middle power. The slogan "Global Korea" succinctly embodies this goal. However, the concept of middle power diplomacy is not clearly defined in terms of its objectives, scope, and policy instruments. First, the category of middle power often serves as a passive concept, encompassing all states except great powers and minor powers, rather than an active one. South Korea, while a relative minor power in Northeast Asia, can be considered a middle power globally, ranking among the top 10 economies. However, significant discussion is still needed regarding the specific foreign policy strategies, objectives, and instruments South Korea will possess as a middle power. If South Korea does not establish a clear global middle power strategy, it may result in the coexistence of uncoordinated policies across various sectors or a limited role as a partner to the United States within the framework of alliance strategy with the global hegemonic power, the U.S.... (continued)