[EAI-CISS NASD 2008] ROK-China Relations and North Korea: Towards a Developmental Trilateral Relationship

EAI-CISS Joint ROK-China Northeast Asia Security Dialogue

Expert Panel

Security Briefings Series No.1-2

Chun Jae-sung, Professor, Seoul National University

Introduction

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, ROK-China relations have achieved remarkable development in all areas. Beyond the quantitative development of relations in economic, social, and cultural spheres, both countries have pursued a leap in qualitative development by signing the "Strategic Cooperative Partnership" last spring. China aims to play the role of a "responsible great power" not only in the East Asian region in the 21st century but also globally, while South Korea seeks to emerge as a "global middle power" based on democracy and economic development. It is true that there are many commonalities between the national strategies of China, a responsible great power, and South Korea, a global middle power. This is because both South Korea and China desire for Northeast Asian international politics to be based on cooperative multilateralism, moving beyond a balance of power and interests, and aspire for a safe and prosperous Northeast Asian region in terms of both traditional security and human security.

North Korea presents various challenges in the process of pursuing mutual cooperation in the region and globally. South Korea seeks to overcome North Korea's military threat, peacefully resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, and facilitate North Korea's normalization within the international community, beyond establishing diplomatic relations with major countries like the United States and Japan. To this end, South Korea strives to strengthen international aid to North Korea for its future, including through the Six-Party Talks. China also encourages North Korea's normal development for peaceful economic development and regional stability, actively cooperates with neighboring countries to prevent security threats to the region, and promotes North Korea's stability through economic assistance.

The issue is that North Korea is gradually entering a period of fundamental change. Since the collapse of the communist bloc, North Korea has adhered to a "strong and prosperous nation" line, adopting a military-centered approach to economic and social development. Furthermore, by developing nuclear weapons and missiles, it poses a security threat to neighboring countries, seeking to establish diplomatic relations and peace negotiations with the United States and others, and thereby guarantee its regime's security. However, amidst this, North Korea's economy is gradually collapsing, and discussions are emerging about a partial erosion of public support. Most importantly, with the weakening health of Chairman Kim Jong-il, a transfer of power in North Korea is becoming inevitable. The national strategy that the future political leadership of North Korea will pursue is a matter of significant interest not only to South Korea and China but also to East Asia and the world.

South Korea and China are presented with an opportunity to solidify their strategic cooperative relationship by jointly contemplating and responding to North Korea's future. By sharing a strategic understanding of North Korea's future, both countries can contribute to the security of the ROK-DPRK-China trilateral relationship, and furthermore, to regional and global security. This paper will examine how South Korea and China can strengthen their cooperation regarding basic strategy, the North Korean nuclear issue, the Korean Peninsula peace structure, and future unification, while jointly contemplating North Korea's future.

National Strategies of South Korea and China

Both South Korea and China appear to be at a turning point in their national and foreign policy strategies. South Korea is striving to assume the status and role of a global middle power and a facilitator of cooperation in Northeast Asia, moving beyond its position as a relative minor power and developing country in the region. China, having overcome its history as a semi-colony subjected to imperialist aggression, and surpassing the national strategy of a rapidly developing country, now seeks to emerge as a responsible great power not only in Asia but globally.

In the rapidly changing power dynamics of international politics in the 21st century, it is a matter of significant interest and a desired outcome for both countries whether they can emerge as middle and great powers, respectively, and whether these strategic objectives can harmonize and create synergy. Unlike the past, the 21st century, characterized by the global trends of globalization, democratization, and informatization, requires not only military and economic strength for true national power enhancement. It is a new era where development in soft power aspects such as ideology, institutions, and culture must occur concurrently, and a comprehensive diplomacy encompassing not only the government of the other country but also its civil society and international institutions must be pursued.

The ROK administration under President Lee Myung-bak has set forth the foreign policy goal of becoming a global middle power. The policy slogan "Global Korea" exemplifies this objective. However, the concept of middle power diplomacy is not clearly defined in terms of its goals, scope, and policy instruments. The category of middle power often functions as a passive descriptor, encompassing all states except great powers and minor powers, rather than an active one. South Korea, while relatively a minor power in Northeast Asia, can be assessed as a middle power globally, ranking among the top ten economies. Nevertheless, considerable discussion is still needed regarding the specific foreign policy strategies, objectives, and instruments South Korea should adopt as a middle power. Failure to establish a clear global middle power strategy could lead to uncoordinated policies across various sectors or result in South Korea merely participating as a partner of the United States within the framework of its alliance strategy with the global hegemon...(continued)