New Criteria for Evaluating Presidential Candidates: Trustworthiness Assessment

Lee Myung-bak Leads in Political Influence; Evaluations of Lee and Park Candidates Diverge on Trustworthiness

Among Unaffiliated Voters, Park Candidate's Trustworthiness is 4.37, Lee Candidate's is 4.26

Most Ruling Party Candidates Receive Less Trust Than President Roh
Only Candidates Sohn Hak-kyu and Han Myeong-sook Surpass President Roh in Trustworthiness

Politicians Trusted by Ruling Party Supporters

1st Kim Dae-jung (5.38), 2nd Sohn Hak-kyu (4.83), 3rd Park Geun-hye (4.76), 4th Roh Moo-hyun (4.73), 5th Lee Myung-bak (4.47)

Politicians Trusted by Undecided Voters

1st Park Geun-hye (4.34), 2nd Kim Dae-jung (4.30), 3rd Lee Myung-bak (4.26), 4th Lee Hoi-chang (4.26), 5th Han Myeong-sook (3.14)

Recent presidential candidate opinion polls show a clear trend of narrowing support gaps between candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. While candidate Lee still holds an advantage in suitability for presidential candidacy, candidate Park is leading in evaluations of moral integrity, indicating emerging shifts. The assessment of political trustworthiness differs somewhat from simple support or personal moral evaluations.

Political trust is ultimately defined as a consistent belief that a politician or political institution will fulfill one's expectations, and it is known to be formed over the long term based on evaluations of actual activities and performance. Therefore, such beliefs are not formed instantaneously, but once established, they are not easily dismantled; conversely, once broken, they are difficult to restore. When political distrust and cynicism are prevalent, politicians face significant challenges in persuading the public with their policies or eliciting voluntary consent. For instance, President Roh Moo-hyun's difficulties in governing, despite short-term increases in approval ratings, can be attributed in part to a weakened foundation of political trust.

While changes in support bases, as observed through shifts in approval ratings, are useful for understanding the direction of undecided voter sentiment, assessments of long-term trust foundations can be more valuable when comparing the stability of each candidate's political base. Measuring the trustworthiness of current presidential candidates vying for the next term, candidate Lee Myung-bak leads, followed closely by candidate Park Geun-hye.

Candidate Park's overall trustworthiness score is slightly behind candidate Lee's. Similar to previous analyses of support bases, candidate Lee receives high trust from voters in the Seoul metropolitan area, those in their 40s and younger, and men. Candidate Park, conversely, garners high trust from the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, those aged 50 and older, and individuals with a middle school education or less. However, candidate Park also receives relatively high trust from undecided voters (ranking 1st) and ruling party supporters (ranking 3rd), indicating a fluid voter base.

A reassuring finding for the Grand National Party is that supporters of each candidate rank the opposing candidate next after their preferred candidate in terms of trustworthiness. This suggests that the supporters of a defeated candidate in a primary election are likely to be absorbed into the support base of the winning candidate.

However, among ruling party supporters, former President Kim Dae-jung was selected as the most trusted politician (5.38 points), and among presidential candidates, candidate Sohn Hak-kyu (4.83 points) received the highest rating. Notably, among voters who selected a ruling party candidate as suitable for the presidency, candidate Park Geun-hye (4.76 points) was ranked third in trustworthiness, and candidate Lee Myung-bak (4.47 points) received the fifth highest score. President Roh Moo-hyun's trustworthiness score was 4.73 points, similar to candidate Park Geun-hye's evaluation. This can be interpreted not as high trust in Grand National Party candidates among ruling party supporters, but rather as a sign of extremely weak trust foundations for ruling party presidential candidates, including President Roh, even among their own supporters. This implies that the supporters of defeated candidates in the process of ruling party consolidation are unlikely to shift to the winning candidate's camp.

The trustworthiness assessment results reaffirm that the 17th presidential election is highly favorable for the Grand National Party and presents a formidable challenge for the ruling party. However, a few variables appear to remain.

First, while candidates Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye of the Grand National Party are indeed receiving relatively high trust ratings, the level of trust among undecided voters is significantly lower. In the undecided voter segment, candidate Park Geun-hye scored 4.37 points and candidate Lee Myung-bak scored 4.27 points, indicating a lack of substantial trust. Therefore, if the competition and conflict between the two candidates intensify, absorbing undecided voters into their respective support bases may not be easy.

Second, the stance of President Kim Dae-jung, who receives relatively high trust from ruling party supporters and undecided voters, is a variable. Although he has stepped back from the front lines, President Kim Dae-jung, who ranked first among ruling party supporters (5.38 points) and second among undecided voters (4.30 points), could influence some ruling party and undecided voters. However, these variables are unlikely to yield significant results unless the ruling party can restore public trust among its discredited candidates or recruit new individuals who are trusted by the public from outside.

The dilemma for the ruling party is that both of these possibilities are difficult to achieve.

[Figure 1] Presidential Suitability Survey (%)

[Figure 2] Comparison of Average Scores for Influence and Trustworthiness Evaluations of Lee and Park Candidates by Group

Left Figure: Lee-Park Influence Difference

Right Figure: Lee-Park Trustworthiness Difference

(1) By Education Level

(2) By Region

(3) By Age

(4) By Preferred Presidential Candidate