Record of the 7th North Korea Advancement Meeting

Prospects for North Korea's Nuclear Program Following Missile Launch

Outlook on the North Korean Nuclear Crisis

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are escalating with North Korea's declaration of a missile launch. A long-term outlook on the North Korean nuclear crisis suggests that due to the inherent characteristics of the North Korean regime and the U.S. government, North Korea-U.S. relations are bound to repeatedly fall into a stalemate. In the February 13, 2007 Joint Statement, the Six-Party Talks agreed to a phased resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue: Phase 1 'shutdown and sealing of nuclear facilities,' Phase 2 'disablement and declaration of nuclear facilities,' and Phase 3 'dismantlement of nuclear weapons.' Although Phase 2 seemed to conclude with North Korea's submission of a declaration in June 2008, the North Korean nuclear issue remains in a stalemate due to verification issues concerning disablement measures. Even if the current crisis is resolved and the conflict surrounding Phase 2 is temporarily alleviated, leading to a temporary advancement in North Korea-U.S. relations, a stalemate will inevitably occur at Phase 3, the dismantlement of nuclear weapons, similar to the previous phases. As long as North Korea does not change, progress in North Korea-U.S. relations is unlikely.

North Korea had hoped for improved relations with the next U.S. administration following the Bush administration. However, current statements by Secretary Clinton indicate that the perspective on North Korea is not significantly different from that of the Bush administration, with the only difference being in the approach to handling nuclear weapons. The Obama administration has not yet formulated a concrete North Korea policy and is currently reviewing the Bush administration's policies. Based on the Obama administration's stance thus far, its North Korea policy appears to be building upon the foundation laid by Assistant Secretary of State Hill during the second Bush administration. If the current crisis is overcome and negotiations between North Korea and the U.S. proceed, North Korea-U.S. relations may advance to a certain extent, but the gap between North Korea and the U.S. is too wide for a complete resolution. This is the reason why progress in North Korea-U.S. relations is projected to be difficult in the long term.

Need for Preparation Following Missile Launch

Given North Korea's recent behavior, a missile launch appears to be a matter of time. Domestic discussions are focused on whether North Korea will launch a missile and when, but insufficient attention is being given to the more critical issue of how South Korea will respond after a missile launch.

What can South Korea do after a missile launch? Following the North Korean nuclear test, South Korea's response was limited to official condemnations. After a missile launch, North Korea, the U.S., China, and Japan will all react. South Korea must consider what role it will play amidst these reactions. If South Korea does not take the initiative, it is highly likely to be marginalized in subsequent negotiations.

Regardless of whether a missile is launched, the U.S. and North Korea may engage in temporary negotiations. However, as mentioned earlier, due to fundamental differences, they will ultimately return to a stalemate. Recognizing these limitations, South Korea must seek long-term response strategies.

Scenarios on the Impact of a Missile Launch on North Korea-U.S. Relations

Scenario 1: Negotiations will face further difficulties after the missile launch

Even if North Korea launches a missile despite U.S. opposition, it will be difficult for the U.S. to accept it as a bargaining chip within its cultural framework. If North Korea launches a missile and continues military provocations, negotiations with the U.S. will become even more challenging.

Scenario 2: Confrontation between North Korea and the U.S. will temporarily intensify after the missile launch, but they will eventually sit down for negotiations

During the first North Korean nuclear crisis, North Korea and the U.S. entered negotiations only after confrontation had intensified and the crisis had escalated. Following a North Korean missile launch, if the U.S. does not engage in negotiations, North Korea will continue to escalate the crisis in inter-Korean relations. North Korea will slowly raise the level of tension until the U.S. accepts a package deal on the nuclear issue. However, similar to the first crisis, negotiations will likely proceed after a period of heightened crisis and confrontation.

Scenario 3: Missile launch and normalization of North Korea-U.S. relations are unrelated; North Korea is currently miscalculating.

North Korea is raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula through missile launches and threats against civilian aircraft with the intention of gaining leverage in negotiations with the U.S. However, these actions have no impact on North Korea-U.S. negotiations. North Korea overlooks the fact that the U.S. conducts negotiations based on the perspectives of its policymakers and its internal logic, not in response to North Korea's actions. The U.S. makes policy decisions based on its internal logic, rather than in response to North Korea. In other words, the U.S. makes decisions unaffected by North Korean provocations. Regardless of how much North Korea provokes, if the U.S. does not wish to negotiate, it will not sit at the negotiating table, and if the U.S. deems negotiations necessary even without provocation, it will negotiate. The U.S.'s fundamental policy toward the Korean Peninsula does not change based on North Korea's actions. This is a characteristic of U.S. foreign policy decision-making.

The current Obama administration intends to utilize all means to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. It will employ all channels, including bilateral and multilateral approaches and UN Security Council sanctions, to ultimately find a way to influence North Korea. Although the Obama administration is still reviewing the previous government's policies regarding North Korea, recent statements by Obama administration officials suggest a growing emphasis on the 'tough' aspect of the 'tough and direct talk' with North Korea advocated during the presidential campaign. If North Korea launches a missile, direct negotiations between North Korea and the U.S., which North Korea desires, may become even more difficult.