[Global Inter-NK-View] Young-Sun Ha Episode (Part 2: Four major frameworks and Global North Korea)

YouTube 링크 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwpcsQ7djiA

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Introduction

In the first episode of [Global Inter-NK-View], (Part 2: Four major frameworks and Global North Korea), Dr. Young-Sun Ha (Chairman of the Board of Trustees at EAI; Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University) explains about the website called Global North Korea, managed by East Asia Institute, and discusses the four major frameworks and the proper method of analyzing North Korean documents.

As part of the Global North Korea project, EAI has been conducting the ‘Global Inter-NK-View: Expert Views on North Korea’ to provide timely analysis on the North Korean issue through interviews with experts. The content of this interview reflects the interviewee’s opinions and not those of the East Asia Institute. Please make sure to use proper references when citing Global NK.

영상 스크립트

Today, the issue surrounding North Korea and the Korean Peninsula continues to develop. Dr. Ha wants to create an intellectual hub for how to research and develop the issue by constructing this Global NK website. Now I'm going to ask you a specific question about this website.

The Global NK website is providing analysis of the issues of the Korean Peninsula and North Korea, and lists four major strategies of Engagement, Sanctions, Internal Transformation, and Deterrence. Please tell us a bit more about these strategies. First of all, I'd like to talk about why the East Asia Institute started this English-language website called "Global North Korea," and then I'd like to talk about the four strategies.

There are two main reasons why I've been thinking for a long time that this type of website should exist. First of all, as we all know, North Korea's long-standing nuclear issue has been a problem that experts, policymakers and everyone at home and abroad have been worried about.

If you look back at the history of attempts to solve this problem, and the history of the problem itself, it seems that there has been one long-standing effort to approach North Korean denuclearization, or the North Korean issue, through sanctions and deterrence. You have some people who favor this approach say that it is more realistic, that these efforts have repeatedly caused North Korea to back down, yet, the problem has still not been solved.

So, it follows that we can solve this problem by improving political and diplomatic relations or by providing economic assistance through active engagement as was done during the Sunshine Policy. At the practical policy level, efforts to solve the problem have gone back and forth between these two approaches.

As a result, the problem we face today is that despite the two-pronged efforts, North Korean denuclearization and the North Korea issue have not been resolved. We have been talking about this for a long time at EAI, and we've been pointing out for a long time that we need to find a new third alternative solution that combines the benefits of the existing approaches.

What happens when we combine the two approaches? There must be an effort to try both approaches at the same time, meaning: there needs to be a minimum level of deterrence and a policy alternative that says corresponding economic sanctions are inevitable if North Korea does not follow, and there needs to also simultaneously be active political and economic engagement in order to ultimately solve the problem.

Additionally, one more thing we've included is that ultimately it is probably hard to find an answer to this problem without the integration of what we call self-reform efforts inside North Korea, which is what we mean by internal transformation. We have produced a number of research reports on how such a third approach might work.

That is the first purpose behind creating this site. Then there is the question of why did we construct this website in English. As everyone is aware, while the Korean Peninsula issue and the North Korean nuclear issue are indeed primarily tasks for the Koreans, there are only limited opportunities for global policymakers and experts to interact with the Korean side in dealing with this issue.

This is because realistically there has not been an effort to internationally disseminate and release materials on what we call the search for "our solution" in English, in the full-fledged sense. Paradoxically, it's always been our problem, but we have tended to think of American websites as being quite important.

So, the Global North Korea website was constructed with the intention of internationally disseminating for the first time English-language reports and information on what we believe the solution to be. Of course, first we must collect some basic documents from the other countries involved as well as their opinions regarding those documents.

The fundamental characteristic of our approach is the combination of the benefits of the realistic approach with some of the idealism from the other approach as well. So, as you asked earlier, we are collecting official statements from the governments of countries involved in North Korea or expert opinions and media and categorizing them into our four categories.

Our categories are engagement, sanctions, deterrence, and internal transformation. The important content as I explained before is, to sum up engagement simply, engagement can occur at both a political and a military level, and from the North Korean point of view, it becomes a matter of regime security.

Engagement also spans issues such as how to improve diplomatic relations and how to deal with the question of peace in the Korean Peninsula or in East Asia. The economic, or sanctions aspect deals with the current status of the current UN sanctions as well as the sanctions posed by individual countries on North Korea as well as the future forecast of how they might be eased.

The primary task for EAI is to categorize and organize this information in such a way that we can explore issues of how economic aid can realistically be possible as the next step to help North Korea become a middle power or even a developed country that can survive in the 21st century once sanctions are lifted.

We need deterrence because concrete deterrence is the most effective way to avoid an unfortunate military situation. Concrete deterrence will prevent the opposition from thinking that military means are a potential solution to this problem. So, the problem is that deterrence is inescapably important when it comes to peace on the Korean Peninsula and in the East Asia region that surrounds it.

The third strategy regarding issues related to internal reform is particularly difficult. Usually, we don't pay attention to this topic when dealing with the North Korea problem or denuclearization. But ultimately, the final decision of North Korea's denuclearization depends on the North.

If the decision made through coercive means such as military force or by rapid, undesirable internal changes, then how will the North be able to pursue a denuclearized version of itself for the advancement of the country? We consider this as a core topic.

To put it simply, some might wonder how it can be realistically possible. In terms of the economy, for instance, because North Korea intends to survive in the 21st century, marketization became unavoidable even within the framework of the planned economy, and in the same way, informatization is penetrating North Korea's society and culture.

Therefore, if seeking the right to live and develop as a nuclear state is less cost-effective than seeking these same rights without nuclear weapons, it becomes possible that North Korea will embrace internal transformation. As such, we selected this as the fourth topic.

We started disseminating this idea globally about a year ago, and we are expecting further outcomes in the future. I'd like to ask you whether the countries involved should be striving to implement these four strategies in a balanced way individually or whether these surrounding countries might be able to divide these strategies among themselves and pursue them strategically in concert with each other.

The main actor depends on the strategy and in some cases diverse actors can be involved. For instance, as I said before, if we start with engagement, political engagement is one of the most important areas to focus on. When it comes to economic engagement according to recent statistics, the national per capita income of North Korea is 1,200 USD, barely above 1,000 USD.

It is practically impossible for North Korea to develop itself like China where the national per capita income is 10,000 USD. Then, can it be possible with South Korea's active support? This also has limits. In other words, we should consider the main actors who can help North Korea's economic development become a reality.

Territorially speaking, Japan, China, the United States and even the EU should be involved. To mitigate the risk of North Korea choosing the military option, the most important primary work should be by South Korea and the U.S. As you know, there are current sanctions in place from the UN and individual countries.

Accordingly, the actors who can cooperate with each other are diverse. For example, we can say China is the most important actor in terms of political engagement. While the ROK-US alliance can handle the corresponding side of military measures, China is capable of influencing the situation diplomatically.

As far as sanctions go, given the recent discussions, the efficiency of sanctions can be measured depending on the extent to which China and Russia cooperate. But first, North Korea should make its own efforts to reform internally. Of course, in addition to efforts by North Korea's leadership, support from surrounding countries is also necessary.

To answer the question "who does the right to live and develop in a nuclear vs. a non-nuclear state benefit more, the nation or the citizens?" the signals sent by neighboring countries play an important role in how that issue is approached. In fact, I think such domestic efforts can create a synergy effect with neighboring countries.

Therefore, the ways in which countries involved in this issue can combine their efforts varies. I think one of the other features of the website is the collection of primary materials, which are the official documents of the countries involved. Especially for those students who are interested in North Korea, can you share a little bit about the importance of these primary materials and how you read them?

The first reason why Global North Korea is now trying to gather documents from the major stakeholders involved, namely North Korea, the United States, China, and Japan, is that while this it is true throughout international politics that it is increasingly difficult to distinguish real news from fake news, fake news abounds particularly when it comes to North Korea, both positive and negative.

The reason so many people write novels is because there are such limited sources. The sources are limited, but the news topic itself has a big impact in our lives. Thus, the news has to be fictionalized. Therefore, what we can see is that it is critically important to go back to the words and actions of the main actors. This is the first step in distinguishing real news from fake news at any rate.

Particularly when younger people try to learn about North Korea, they find it difficult to know how to read North Korean materials, and I always point out that people whose native language is Korean always become confused as the North and South Korean languages are quite distinct.

What this means is even if you can read the domestic (South Korean) newspapers, you will not know the meaning of the news published by the Rodong Sinmun. In other words, we need to study North Korean a bit. So how do we do that? The basic words that North Korea uses are quite different from what we use here.

For instance, democracy, peace, and independence have different definitions. So, approaching the subject requires some rudimentary study. It is fortunate that the North does not produce a great deal of material, so those who wish to study these basic terms used in the North Korean language can see a little bit of how their use has changed over time by looking at the basic documents issued by the North's Worker's Party Congress.

By examining these primary materials, we can understand that freedom, democracy, independence, and federation are used in a very different in context by North Koreans in their daily life compare to how South Koreans use such language. Once you have read these articles and come to this realization, you will be able to distinguish fake news from real news after some practice.