EAI 21st Presidential Election Poll Analysis VI: Cracks in the Heart of Conservatism? Variations and Repetitions of Regionalism in the 21st Presidential Election

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-UNdnsgZvU

Video Script

Variations and Repetitions of Regionalist Voting: An Analysis of the Yeongnam Region

I was in charge of regionalism. I covered this topic three years ago, and the title was 'Change and Continuity.' However, the phrase 'Change and Continuity' felt too bland, so I chose a stronger title to attract media and public attention. The title 'Cracks in the Heart of Conservatism' might have been a bit excessive. As a presenter, I feel somewhat embarrassed. When discussing variations or changes in regionalism, we primarily refer to the Yeongnam region. If the media or others bring up this topic, they often ask, 'Aren't you a supporter of the Democratic Party?' or 'Why focus only on Yeongnam when the turnout in Honam is 90%?' While regionalism is also strong in Honam, regarding recent changes in regionalism, Professor Kang Won-taek mentioned the easing of regionalism in a book around 2003, and Professors Choi Jun-young and Jo Jin-man have also published related papers.

Previous studies largely maintained that regionalism still persists, but recent studies argue for its easing or change. The argument for the persistence of regionalism is also evident in the recent election results. Candidate Lee Jae-myung achieved over 40% of the vote in Busan, a record for a presidential candidate, and in areas known as the Nakdong River Belt, candidate Lee Jae-myung garnered more votes in Gangseo-gu. In areas near the Nakdong River, such as Sasang, Saha, Yeongdo, and Buk-gu, the margin was a narrow difference of less than 10 percentage points. Despite this, Lee Jae-myung seemed dissatisfied. There's an anecdote that he said while dining with key Democratic Party officials in Yongsan, 'Why is the west still blue, but the east is still red?'

Changes in Yeongnam Region Vote Share and Favorability Analysis

This suggests that there are still unsatisfactory aspects. However, changes are also detected in the 'red' regions. Particularly, changes are emerging in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam (Bu-ul-gyeong) and Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) areas. I would like to discuss these changes. First, let's examine the analysis of the vote results from the Central Election Commission for 2022 and 2025, broken down by metropolitan region. In the Honam region (Jeonbuk, Gwangju, Jeonnam), the Democratic Party's vote share remained largely unchanged. In contrast, candidate Kim Moon-soo's vote share generally declined compared to three years ago. In Jeonbuk, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol received over 14% of the vote three years ago, but this dropped to 10.9% this time. Candidate Kim Moon-soo's vote share decreased across the board, whether in Daegu-Gyeongbuk, Yeongnam, PK, or TK. This is likely influenced by vote transfers to candidate Lee Jun-seok. Conversely, candidate Lee Jae-myung's vote share generally increased. A similar pattern is observed in the EAI Korea Research survey. The striped bars represent the previous election results, and the solid colors represent the current election results. As you can see, blue (Democratic Party) has generally increased in all regions, while red (People Power Party) has generally decreased.

This box plot analyzes favorability towards each candidate by region, specifically Gwangju-Jeolla, Daegu-Gyeongbuk, and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam. A box plot shows the range, median, and quartiles of a distribution. Interestingly, in the Honam region, the favorability ranges for candidates Lee Jae-myung, Kim Moon-soo, and Lee Jun-seok do not overlap significantly. This suggests overwhelmingly high support for candidate Lee Jae-myung. The numbers represent the average scores. In Honam, Lee Jae-myung scored 7.57, Kim Moon-soo scored 3.66, and Lee Jun-seok scored 3.93, showing a considerable difference. In contrast, the Yeongnam region, particularly Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam, presents intriguing results. Although Lee Jae-myung's favorability is somewhat lower on average in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam and Daegu-Gyeongbuk compared to Honam, his favorability is broadly distributed across the Yeongnam region.

Regional Responsibility Perception and Emotional Shifts in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam

This implies that while some individuals have very low favorability, there are also a considerable number of people who like candidate Lee Jae-myung. The average is quite high, and the broad range of favorability compared to conservative candidates is noteworthy. In the case of Busan, one reason for Lee Jae-myung's high vote share in the Nakdong River Belt might be the significant population of Honam origin in that area. This is an analysis based on residential location. Next is the perception of responsibility for constitutional amendments and impeachment by region. The lightest shade at the bottom indicates a high degree of responsibility for the People Power Party, orange indicates no responsibility for either party, blue indicates responsibility for both, and the pink at the top indicates responsibility for the Democratic Party. In all regions, the response that the People Power Party bears significant responsibility was the highest, particularly in the Gwangju-Jeolla region. In Daegu-Gyeongbuk, while the response of the People Power Party bearing significant responsibility was high, the pink response (responsibility of the Democratic Party) was close to 30%, and the response that 'both bear responsibility' was also very high. This seems to reflect the complex sentiments of the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region. For the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region, similar to recent studies, the pattern shows no significant difference from voters in the Seoul metropolitan area. While younger generations born after the 1990s might not be aware, it was striking how the regionalism of the TK and PK regions was formed with the slogan 'Are we not family?' during our school days. However, I believe the sentiments in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam have changed to the extent that such memories are now fading.

This data includes a question asking about self-perceptions of vote changes in the Yeongnam region. Respondents were asked on a 4-point scale from 1 (not at all likely) to 4 (very likely) about whether the People Power Party or the Democratic Party is a party worth supporting in the future. As you can see, from Seoul to Gangwon and Jeju, blue (likelihood of supporting the Democratic Party) generally appeared higher.

Party Support Intention and the Possibility of Easing Regionalism

This indicates that while people still lean conservative, the aversion to the Democratic Party in the Gyeongsang provinces has significantly decreased. As shown in the regression analysis, there may be a tendency to vote based on antipathy towards parties within the current polarized structure. However, in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, the intention to support the Democratic Party was slightly higher at 2.31 compared to 2.26 within a 5% range, and in the Bu-ul-gyeong region, it was also higher at 2.45 compared to 2.18. The intention to support the Democratic Party is, of course, high in the Gwangju-Jeolla region. Recently, there's been talk of 'Yeongnam Jeminryeon' (a hypothetical party combining Yeongnam and the United Liberal Democrats), along with analyses suggesting that Yeongnam representatives are leading the party. However, in my view, recent settlers discuss regional parties as a way to resolve regionalism. For example, even if there is an aversion to the Democratic Party in Yeongnam, the emergence of a regional party could pose difficulties for the People Power Party. Similarly, in Honam, the emergence of a regional party other than the Democratic Party could create challenges for the Democratic Party. In the past, this sign appeared in Honam when Ahn Cheol-soo's People's Party emerged. While there might be an aspect of being held hostage due to the current polarized structure, I believe there is potential for regionalism to ease if regional parties or alternative political forces emerge in Yeongnam.

Voting Behavior by Generation and Democratic Party Support Among the 40s and 50s

This data presents analysis by region and generation. In the Honam region, support for the Democratic Party is high among those in their 20s, while support for the People Power Party is relatively high among the elderly aged 70 and above. Differences exist by region and generation. Greater changes are observed in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam and Daegu-Gyeongbuk. In Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam, 90% of those aged 70 and above support the People Power Party. However, as seen in the presentations by Professor Han Jeong-hoon and Professor Kim Han-na, there are generational differences. While I find the voting behavior of those in their 20s and 30s interesting, I also find the voting behavior of those in their 40s and 50s, which includes myself, very intriguing. The 40s and 50s appear to be staunch supporters of the Democratic Party.

Regression Analysis: Influence of Ideological Orientation and Age

I find this phenomenon peculiar, even beyond regional considerations. A support rate of 60% or 70% or more, regardless of performance, suggests a special cohort effect at play. In the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, support for the Democratic Party was also high among those in their 40s, 50s, and 30s. In Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam, support for the Democratic Party was high among all age groups from 30s to 50s. For the People Power Party, while there was a unique situation with President Yoon Suk-yeol's 'own goal' in this election, these survey results suggest that they should demonstrate change rather than relying solely on regions or their staunch supporters who ardently back them. The following are the results of the regression analysis. Analyzing those who supported candidate Lee Jae-myung, focusing only on candidates Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo. Considering the recent polarization and the remaining two years of the presidential term, a log odds value centered around 0 indicates over 50% support on the right and under 50% on the left. Democratic Party supporters clearly supported candidate Lee Jae-myung, and People Power Party supporters clearly supported candidate Kim Moon-soo.

Statistically significant results show that ideological orientation (progressive tendency) influenced support for candidate Lee Jae-myung. Age also had some influence. While no significant results appeared within the 95% confidence interval, support for candidate Lee Jae-myung was significant in the Gwangju-Jeolla region alone. In the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Bu-ul-gyeong regions, although not significant within the 95% confidence interval, a significant result appeared in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region within the 90% confidence interval. This suggests that this trend was partially present in this election as well. While a divide between East and West is observed, changes are also perceived not only in Daegu-Gyeongbuk but also in Bu-ul-gyeong. Next are the results of an ordinal logistic regression analysis on future support intentions for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party. Excluding party support status, other variables did not yield statistically significant results. This implies that people are currently bound by their party support status and ideological orientation.

The Role of Alternative Parties in Mitigating Regional Divides

Given that statistically significant results did not emerge in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Honam regions, it is expected that regionalism will gradually ease with generational change if alternative parties emerge in each region. Of course, the left represents blue (Democratic Party) and the right represents red (People Power Party), and there seems to be little change in the Honam region. However, if the polarization is resolved, institutional changes occur, generational shifts take place, and an environment is created where regional alternative parties or forces can meaningfully emerge, then regional divides can be mitigated in the future. This concludes my presentation.

■ Lee Jae-mook_Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

■ Managed and Edited by Song Chae-rin_EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | crsong@eai.or.kr

In the case of the People Power Party, President Yoon Suk-yeol made a self-inflicted mistake due to the extraordinary circumstances of martial law this time. However, based on these survey results, it appears that the party will need to demonstrate a willingness to change rather than solely relying on regions or its fixed supporter base that ardently supports them. This is a result of regression analysis, analyzing individuals who supported candidate Lee Jae-myung, focusing only on Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo. Considering recent polarization, the analysis based on log odds with 50% as the threshold revealed that Democratic Party supporters backed candidate Lee Jae-myung, and People Power Party supporters backed candidate Kim Moon-soo. Statistically significant findings are as follows.

Considering ideological orientation, progressive supporters backed candidate Lee Jae-myung, and some age-based analysis was also observed. While most results were not statistically significant within the 95% confidence interval, support for candidate Lee Jae-myung was significant in the Gwangju/Jeolla region. Although not significant within the 95% confidence interval, support in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region was significant within the 90% confidence interval for the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (Bu-Ul-Gyeong) regions. This suggests that while regional divisions are evident in this election, signs of change are also emerging in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Bu-Ul-Gyeong regions. Furthermore, a subsequent analysis of future support intentions for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party using an ordered logistic model indicated that factors other than party affiliation and ideological orientation were not statistically significant. This suggests that current party affiliation and ideological orientation influence support behavior.

Given that statistically significant results are not observed in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Honam regions, there is a possibility that regionalism may gradually diminish with generational shifts if alternative parties emerge in each region in the future. The left represents Democratic Party supporters, and the right represents People Power Party supporters; no significant changes appear in the Honam region. However, if an environment is created that fosters the resolution of polarization, institutional change, generational shifts, and the emergence of regional alternative parties or forces, it is projected that regional divisions will likely diminish in the future. This concludes the report.

Lee Jae-mook_Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.

Managed and Edited by Song Chae-rin_EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | crsong@eai.or.kr