[Korea-Japan-Australia International Conference] Korea-Japan-Australia Cooperation in the Era of Trump 2.0: Challenges and Responses

YouTube Link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7avI72W_e3U

Video Script

Conference Opening and Statement of Purpose

Good morning. Welcome to the East Asia Institute (EAI). I am Son Hyuk-chan, President of EAI and Professor at Yonsei University. Thank you all for attending our conference this Saturday morning. I would like to extend a special thanks to His Excellency Mr. Geoff Raby, Australian Ambassador to Korea, His Excellency Mr. Mishiima Kiichi, Japanese Ambassador to Korea, and the Korean Ambassador to Korea for gracing us with their presence today. This conference was conceived and planned immediately after the election of President Trump.

Immediately after the election. It was only two months ago, so all aspects of preparation were done in a very tight schedule. Therefore, I am deeply grateful to the panelists and keynote speakers for accepting our request on such short notice and making this event possible. As allies of the United States, Australia, Japan, and Korea share common concerns and anxieties about the return of former President Trump.

Challenges of the Trump 2.0 Era and the Need for Trilateral Cooperation

This is driven by the anticipated acceleration of what is called Trumpism, which encompasses not only Trump's personal and unique leadership style but also broader systemic changes in U.S. foreign policy. This reflects a long-term decline in American hegemony. We may face a leadership deficit or a hegemonic deficit in maintaining the existing liberal international order. This order has actually contributed to the interests and well-being of the three countries. For prosperity. So, what then?

What will be the impact on the Indo-Pacific regional order? And can that deficit be filled collectively by the three allies? What can the three countries do if Trump's vision differs from their aspirations? If solidarity among the three countries is possible, what are their shared goals, and what should we do? These are urgent issues and questions for the three countries, key U.S. allies. Therefore, today's

trilateral conference aims to identify critical challenges and, more importantly, to develop strategies for fostering trilateral cooperation in the Indo-Pacific to navigate the changing dynamics of U.S. foreign policy and strengthen the partnership of the three countries to achieve common goals. I look forward to a fruitful discussion today. Thank you. Good morning. Thank you, Professor Son, President of EAI, and to the Ambassadors of Australia and Japan to Korea.

Current Status and Prospects of Trilateral Cooperation Among Korea, Japan, and Australia

Distinguished panelists, ladies and gentlemen, it is a great pleasure to address this distinguished group of experts from Korea, Australia, and Japan. With the inauguration of President Trump imminent, the first Australia-Japan R Track 1.5 Trilateral Dialogue, hosted by the American Studies Center last June, laid the groundwork for formalizing and structuring meaningful exchanges among us. I believe that continued vibrant discussions on R Australia-Japan trilateral cooperation at multiple levels are absolutely essential and beneficial.

In this regard, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to the East Asia Institute (EAI) for hosting today's timely and thought-provoking discussion. As key U.S. allies, our three nations have much to reflect upon regarding the evolving dynamics of the Indo-Pacific and the role of the United States within it. I would also like to express my deep appreciation for EAI's unwavering support for the implementation of Korea's Indo-Pacific Strategy. We strongly believe in the importance of solidarity among like-minded countries to uphold and strengthen the rules-based international order in our region.

To this end, we are committed to fostering and leveraging close partnerships based on shared values and strategic interests. In recent years, Korea has made significant strides in strengthening trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States. Milestones such as the establishment of a trilateral secretariat underscore our commitment to nurturing sustainable collaboration. Korea is also diversifying its strategic communication channels and enhancing regional engagement by extending its diplomatic network beyond the Russia-Japan framework. Among these emerging cooperation frameworks, the trilateral partnership between Korea, Australia, and Japan stands out as a cornerstone of strategic importance. This trilateral framework has achieved considerable progress in a relatively short period. Initiatives such as defense ministerial meetings have been launched, and over the past year, we have held two Indo-Pacific dialogues.

Challenges and Opportunities in the Indo-Pacific Region Following Changes in U.S. Policy

As like-minded partners across a broad spectrum, the trilateral partnership has a solid foundation underpinned by our shared vision for a peaceful, prosperous, free, and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Likewise, our cooperation reflects a convergence of many priorities, ranging from maritime security to climate action and sustainable development. Distinguished guests, as we anticipate the Indo-Pacific approach of the incoming Trump administration, it is crucial to consider the potential for a significant recalibration of U.S. strategy in the region. The new administration is expected to pursue a more assertive and transactional approach, particularly in its relations with China. We may see a renewed focus on bilateral trade negotiations and a potential expansion of tariffs that could reshape our regional economic dynamics. While the core objective of maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific may persist, the methods and priorities could differ significantly. It may also exert pressure on allies to shoulder more of the financial burden for regional security.

This recalibration can present both challenges and opportunities for trilateral cooperation, demanding that we adjust our strategies and potentially play a more proactive role in shaping regional security and economic architectures. What is clear is that regardless of the level of U.S. engagement in the region, our three nations must continue to champion our shared principles and values and create added value for our region through deeper cooperation. By effectively coordinating our efforts across various domains, South Korea, Australia, and Japan can play a crucial role in addressing regional priorities, particularly those affecting Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island countries. As discussed in our previous Indo-Pacific dialogues, we are well-positioned to advance common interests in areas such as maritime security, climate change, and sustainable development. For instance, we jointly hosted the first ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific Maritime Cooperation Seminar in 2023. The second edition is scheduled for next month. We highly appreciate Australia’s leadership in co-hosting the seminar and believe that greater synergy can be achieved by more closely coordinating our respective initiatives. In this sense, today’s conference offers a significant opportunity to shape innovative regional cooperation among like-minded countries in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. I believe that the United States, as an ally and essential actor in shaping Indo-Pacific dynamics, will also gain valuable insights by viewing the region through the lens of Australia-Japan-ROK trilateralism. With distinguished experts from our three countries today, I look forward to a frank and candid exchange that will meaningfully contribute to shaping a prosperous future for our region. Thank you. I am Ishima Kiichi, Japanese Ambassador to Korea. Together with EAI Chairman Hayashi,

Improving Korea-Japan Relations and Strengthening Trilateral Cooperation

Director Shell of the East Asia Institute. I am also pleased to be here with Ambassador Jeff Robinson of Australia, and Ambassador Choi Young-sam, Korea's Special Envoy for Indo-Pacific Affairs. With the inauguration of President Trump on January 20th imminent, I initially questioned the seminar's original theme, 'Imagining the Indo-Pacific without the United States.' This might seem somewhat provocative. However, I interpret this original title as a strong affirmation that the Indo-Pacific region should never be conceived or function without the presence of the United States. I am confident that the panelists today will share this perspective. The international environment surrounding us leaves no room for space without the United States, in terms of both security and economy. Earlier this week, from January 13th to 14th, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visited Korea. This was the first bilateral visit by a Japanese Foreign Minister in nearly seven years. During the visit, he paid respects at the Seoul National Cemetery and held meaningful discussions, including a meeting with his Korean counterpart and with the Acting President and Speaker of the National Assembly of Korea. In his talks with Korean Foreign Minister Choi Young-sam, the two ministers reaffirmed the importance of strengthening future-oriented cooperation between Japan and Korea. They also agreed to actively pursue trilateral cooperation among Japan, Korea, and the United States in addressing challenges related to the Indo-Pacific and economic security, as well as the North Korean issue. Despite the significant challenges Korea faces, this visit underscored the enduring importance of Japan-Korea relations and sent a positive message. Japan, Korea, and Australia, as democracies in Asia and allies of the United States, share many commonalities and are committed to fundamental principles and values. In terms of trade relations, in 2023, Korea was Japan's third-largest export destination, after the United States and China. Australia ranked tenth. In terms of imports, Australia was Japan's third-largest supplier, after China and the United States. Korea ranked seventh. Building on these strong political and economic ties, trilateral dialogues were held in Seoul in June and December last year. These discussions addressed maritime security, development cooperation, regional issues, and relations with the Global South. Furthermore, a trilateral defense ministerial meeting was held in Singapore in June. These multilateral frameworks are crucial for upholding and strengthening a rules-based, free, and open international order.

Given the financial burden for regional security, this recalibration can present both challenges and opportunities for trilateral cooperation. This suggests the need for us to adjust our strategies and take a more proactive role in shaping regional security and economic architectures. What is clear is that regardless of the level of U.S. engagement in the region, our three nations must continue to uphold our shared principles and values and create added value for our region through deeper cooperation.

Through cooperation across various domains, Korea, Australia, and Japan can play a crucial role in addressing regional priorities, particularly those affecting Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island countries. As discussed in our previous Indo-Pacific dialogues, we are well-positioned to advance common interests in areas such as maritime security, climate change, and sustainable development. For instance, we jointly hosted the first ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific Maritime Cooperation Seminar in 2023, and its second edition is scheduled for next month.

I highly value Australia's leadership in co-hosting the seminar and believe that by more closely coordinating our respective initiatives, we can achieve greater synergy. In this context, today's conference offers a significant opportunity to shape innovative regional cooperation among like-minded countries in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. I believe that the United States, as an ally and an indispensable actor in shaping Indo-Pacific dynamics, will also gain valuable insights by viewing the region through the lens of our Australia-Japan-Korea trilateral. With distinguished experts from our three countries joining today, I anticipate a frank and candid exchange that will meaningfully contribute to shaping a prosperous future for our region. Thank you. I am Kiichi Mishima, Ambassador of Japan to the Republic of Korea. I am honored to speak at the seminar on trilateral cooperation among Japan, Korea, and Australia, under the initiative of EAI Chairman Hayoung-sun and Director Shell of the East Asia Institute.

I am also pleased to be joined by Ambassador Geoff Raby of Australia and Ambassador Choi Young-sam of Korea, the Special Representative for Indo-Pacific Affairs. With the inauguration of President Trump of the United States imminent on January 20, I initially thought that the seminar's original theme, 'An Indo-Pacific Vision Without the United States?', might appear somewhat provocative. However, I interpret this original title as a strong affirmation that the Indo-Pacific region should not be conceived or function without the presence of the United States.

I am confident that the panelists today will share this perspective. The international environment leaves no room for space without the United States, in terms of both security and economy in this region. Earlier this week, from January 13th to 14th, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi visited Korea. This was the first bilateral visit by a Japanese Foreign Minister in nearly seven years. During the visit, he paid respects at the Seoul National Cemetery and engaged in meaningful discussions, including a meeting with his Korean counterpart and with the Acting President and Speaker of the National Assembly of Korea.

In a dialogue with Korean Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se, the two ministers reaffirmed the importance of strengthening future-oriented cooperation between Japan and Korea. They also agreed to actively promote trilateral cooperation among Japan, Korea, and the United States in addressing challenges related to the Indo-Pacific and economic security, as well as the North Korean issue. Despite the significant challenges Korea faces, this visit underscored the enduring importance of Japan-Korea relations and sent a positive message in this regard.

Japan, Korea, and Australia, as democracies in Asia and allies of the United States, share many commonalities and are committed to fundamental principles and values. In terms of trade relations, in 2023, Korea was Japan's third-largest export destination after the United States and China, while Australia ranked tenth. In terms of imports, Australia was Japan's third-largest supplier after China and the United States, and Korea ranked seventh.

Building on these strong political and economic ties, trilateral dialogues were held in Singapore in June and Seoul in December last year. These discussions addressed maritime security, development cooperation, regional issues, and relations with the Global South. Furthermore, a trilateral defense ministerial meeting was held in Singapore in June. These multilateral frameworks are crucial for upholding and strengthening a rules-based, free, and open international order.

Japan is the third-largest source after China and the United States, while South Korea ranked seventh. Building on these strong political and economic ties, trilateral dialogues were held in Singapore in June last year and in Seoul in December. These discussions covered maritime security, development cooperation, regional issues, and relations with the Global South. Furthermore, a trilateral defense ministers' meeting was held in Singapore in June. These multilateral frameworks are crucial for maintaining and strengthening a rules-based, free, and open international order.

Upholding the Rules-Based International Order and Democratic Values

Japan supports the rule of law to promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region and is committed to actively pursuing this agenda. While democracy may appear less efficient than authoritarian regimes in the short term, it is essential for safeguarding values such as diversity, inclusivity, and individual freedom. These values are indispensable for lasting peace and prosperity. Therefore, protecting democracy is a core foreign policy priority. Likewise, mutually beneficial economic relations are the foundation of stable international relations.

Maintaining and expanding a free, fair, and rules-based economic order is essential. Furthermore, addressing economic corruption, one of the major foreign policy challenges in recent years, requires close cooperation between public and private sectors, including reliable evidence gathering. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has underscored the interconnectedness of security in Europe and Asia. Japan has consistently emphasized the urgency of the situation,

Strengthening Multilateral Frameworks and Regional Cooperation

warning that today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia. Allies such as the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Australia must remain steadfast in their commitment to peace, stability, and economic security in the Indo-Pacific region. Simultaneously, it is crucial to effectively communicate these commitments to the global community, including the Global South. As part of these efforts, Japan will continue to advocate for and strengthen multilateral networks, such as minilateral frameworks like cooperation among Korea, Japan, and Australia.

cooperation among Korea, Japan, and Australia. As I conclude my remarks today, I look forward to a frank and productive discussion among leading scholars in the region on a wide range of issues, including security, trade, and technology. Thank you once again to EAI and Professor Son for your strong leadership in hosting this seminar. Thank you. Hello, everyone. I am delighted to be here. My sincere congratulations to EAI and Professor Son for hosting this important event. It is, of course, an honor to be here with Dr. Jung.

Dr. Jung, and Ambassador Moshima. I have come to consider Ambassador Moshima a very good colleague and friend. I also thank Melissa and Thomas from Australia and Japan, whom I have not yet met, as well as the distinguished scholars who have come here for this timely meeting. And of course, our Korean hosts. I am truly delighted that the East Asia Institute has taken a leading role in maintaining the momentum of this emerging trilateral consultative partnership since the first trilateral 1.5 track dialogue held in Australia last June.

since the first trilateral 1.5 track dialogue held in Australia last June. As you know, officials from the three foreign ministries attended the first Indo-Pacific dialogue in Canberra. And we held a second meeting here in Seoul in December. Furthermore, the defense ministers of Korea, Japan, and Australia met trilaterally on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue last year, and I am personally passionate about continuing these processes.

The Role and Strategic Interests of Middle Powers

It is clear that this trilateral cooperation has the potential to complement existing frameworks, such as the U.S.-Japan-Korea and U.S.-Japan-Australia formats. While I do not wish to overuse the term 'endless work,' we should note that we are three like-minded democratic middle powers that underpin America's alliances in the Indo-Pacific. We have complementary geographic perspectives and deep strategic and economic networks not only with each other but also with other regions in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. Above all, we have fundamentally aligned strategic interests in a peaceful, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region characterized by strategic balance, where no nation dominates or is dominated, and disputes are resolved based on rules, norms, and international law, rather than on power and size.

Australian Foreign Minister Wong stated during her visit to Korea last July that middle powers like us are not mere bystanders to the actions of great powers. Our region is being reshaped, and our mission is to influence this reshaping. To this end, countries with shared interests, like ours, must cooperate. The period of strategic competition we face presents very difficult issues and choices for middle powers. From Australia's perspective, the answer is not to talk about choosing sides. Our interests require us to engage with all great powers. Nor is it to adopt a cautious middle path as if we had no stake.

Nor do we have a stake in the direction of this strategic competition. Instead, we must be very clear about who we are, what our national interests and values are, and what this means for the kind of region we live in and the kind of region I have just described. We have a shared interest in the future direction of our region. The original title of this conference was perhaps more deliberately provocative in Australia than in Japan or Korea. There are some strategic commentators in our region who are again deliberately provocative.

predicting not only a decline in America's relative influence but also a complete withdrawal of the United States from the region. From the Australian government's perspective, the question is not whether the United States will be present, but what will be the character and nature of its engagement and leadership, and what role can we, as allies of the United States, play in shaping that engagement. This is in the long-term interests of the region and of the United States. Some may recall that Australia released a foreign policy white paper in 2017. That was quite some time ago.

It was a bold decision to release a long-term strategic outlook in a time of uncertainty and change. This included the first year of the Trump administration. However, the fundamental strategic judgments of that white paper have proven remarkably accurate. One of them reads as follows: The Australian government judges that the long-term interests of the United States will anchor its economic and security engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. The major Pacific alliances, including those with Japan and South Korea, will continue to be strong.

Most regional countries, including Australia, view a significant U.S. role in the Indo-Pacific as a stabilizing influence. President Trump ran on a platform of change, and it would be unwise to expect anything other than change. However, early signals from the incoming administration show a continued commitment to the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, Marco Rubio, likely the next Secretary of State, stated repeatedly in his confirmation hearings

for example, very strongly about the importance of the AUKUS partnership. The strategic competition with China will remain a feature of U.S. foreign policy, and managing that competition will require a strong U.S. diplomatic, military, and economic footprint in the region. This includes a network of alliances that enhance deterrence. The alliance between Australia and the United States is just one pillar of that network, and indeed, it is as strong and important as ever. Therefore, as Australia's Ambassador to Korea, I am always pleased when our country

comes together to build a shared understanding of the challenges facing our region and identify ways to cooperate. Despite the title of this discussion, we must always keep in mind the shared challenges facing all three of our countries, which other actors in the region are already facing, regardless of any change in administration in Washington. Furthermore, as we watch the current political situation in Korea unfold, events like these and

the role of institutions like EAI are more important than ever in informing and guiding future Korean policy. Similar things are happening in Australia and Japan. I am confident that this is a very timely meeting. I offer my sincere congratulations to the leadership and organizers of this meeting. It is truly important that we, as informed commentators, play our role to ensure that future policy directions are appropriate for our shared interests. I am very pleased to deliver a keynote address at EAI's trilateral conference.

Crisis of Global, Regional, and National Leadership and the Importance of Trilateral Cooperation

I am very pleased to deliver a keynote address at EAI's trilateral conference on cooperation among Korea, Japan, and Australia in the context of the Trump 2.0 era. We are witnessing profound leadership crises at the global, regional, and national levels. Globally, the relationship between the United States and China has faced significant challenges as the central axis of the world order in managing competition and conflict over the past few years. With the return of President Trump and his emphasis on 'America First,' this relationship appears to be transitioning into a more cautious form of conflict.

However, the risk of strategic deterioration is significant, particularly in the context of the nuclear-AI nexus. Furthermore, the global economic order is increasingly fragmented, and the trend of decoupling from China is exacerbating this trend. These developments underscore the sharp decline in the effectiveness of global leadership in recent times. The Indo-Pacific has become the focal point of strategic competition between the United States and China.

Trump's Indo-Pacific strategy is expected to prioritize rejecting China's hegemonic ambitions as part of his 'Make America Great Again' agenda. This approach is likely to rely on transactional partnerships with coalition members who provide cost-effective contributions. In response, China is expected to pursue a counter-strategy to expand its regional influence, pursuing 'great national rejuvenation.' While direct confrontation between the two great powers may not occur, their competition will

be fierce and extensive. Nationally, the leadership crisis is deeply evident on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea is pursuing a triple survival strategy: strengthening its domestic capabilities through nuclear and economic development, increasing its international influence by supporting Russia in Ukraine, and deepening its animosity towards South Korea. However, this strategy faces increasing challenges. The impracticality of the 'parallel development' line of pursuing both economy and nuclear development simultaneously, limited support from Russia,

and deteriorating relations with South Korea pose significant obstacles to North Korea's survival strategy.

Since liberation, South Korea has made remarkable progress in nation-building, characterized by rapid industrialization and democratization, despite its limited absorptive capacity and the negative consequences of deteriorating inter-Korean relations over the past 80 years. Korea now faces a leadership crisis at a critical juncture of civilizational transition, demanding innovative approaches to the public good, including a vision for building civilization in the 21st century, and must address the current triple crisis.

Addressing Regional and National Challenges Through Trilateral Cooperation

Cooperation among Korea, Japan, and Australia is crucial in addressing global, regional, and national leadership crises. Globally, the three great powers must lead in establishing competitive coexistence as a new civilizational standard for the 21st century. This requires fostering a complex leadership model capable of managing and regulating peaceful, prosperous, ecological, cultural, and technological interdependence, aiming to mitigate the catastrophic risks of the technological revolution era.

Regionally, the evolution of the Indo-Pacific strategy must be guided by future-oriented discussions focused on peace, prosperity, technological innovation, and regional coexistence. Korea, Japan, and Australia must also play a leading role in implementing this new framework in cooperation with the United States, seeking future-oriented approaches to encourage an open and reform-oriented China. Nationally, addressing the leadership crisis requires defining new public goals for nation-building that align with the demands of 21st-century civilization.

In particular, South Korea must navigate deepening partisan polarization and transcend factional diplomacy to address the triple diplomatic challenges of deepening ROK-U.S.-Japan cooperation, strengthening regional cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, and resolving the North Korean nuclear issue. This can be achieved through a post-modern complex state framework that aligns with modern global standards. Furthermore, South Korea must seek innovative strategies

to support North Korea's transition to a sustainable and denuclearized survival framework in cooperation with other stakeholders. The success of trilateral cooperation ultimately depends on a leadership transformation in Korea, Japan, and Australia, which must meet the new civilizational standards required in the 21st century. I am confident that today's dialogue will be a meaningful step in addressing the triple leadership crisis and opening opportunities for a more stable and prosperous future for the Indo-Pacific. Thank you.

Thank you.