[Global NK 인터뷰] 2024년 미국 대선과 한국의 대북 정책

YouTube 링크 : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQcwd_c8h78

이성윤 윌슨 센터(Wilson Center) 펠로우는 2024 미국 대선이 북한의 대외 정책에 미칠 영향을 분석하고, 북한의 열악한 인권 상황에 대해 책임을 묻기 위한 국제 사회의 대응책을 제시합니다. 이 펠로우는 북한이 중국과 러시아의 지지를 받으며 그 어느 때보다 대담하게 도발을 감행하고 있는 상황에서, 미국의 차기 대통령이 북한에 책임을 묻는 대신 호의적인 관계를 유지한다면 한국을 포함한 미국의 동맹국들에게 적지 않은 리스크를 가져올 것이라고 강조합니다. 나아가 대북제재의 효용성을 제고하기 위해 한국과 국제사회가 협력을 강화해야 한다고 강조하고, 김정은 정권에 의해 북한 주민들의 인권이 억압당하고 있음을 주민 스스로 깨달을 수 있도록 국제사회가 함께 노력해야 한다고 제언합니다.

■ 이성윤_윌슨센터(Wilson Center) 펠로우.

■ 담당 및 편집: 박지수, EAI 연구원

    문의: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

영상 스크립트

uh next question is about next year so uh Biden Administration has been criticized for its northc policy uh maybe because there are so many distractions in uh Global pish these days the Ukraine war and Gaza War so uh next year probably Biden Administration will not do very dramatic in dealing with North Korea nuclear problem or North Kore itself and also in November there will be a US presidential election which is a big concern for many countries including South Korea so do you think there will be any uh changes

or impacts of Us North policy after this election if you look at previous transition of power in the United States um from Obama to Trump for example in the last year of the Obama president presidency in 2016 North Korea was on a Relentless course of provocations and throughout the first year of the Trump presidency North Korea was again on a Relentless course of escalation with three ICBM intercontinental ballistic missile tests so with two years of provocations and creating a crisis-like situation North Korea dramatically

changed the tune to a happier one in early 2018 and launch its charm offensive and kimjongun during his new year's address on January 1st 2018 said he would be ad meable to sending a delegation to the pong Chong Olympics in South Korea and then inter Korean talks began almost right away one day before the North Korean delegation's visit to South Korea North Korea announced that kimy Jang would be on the delegation which created even greater excitement and expectation of genuine Peace So I think North Korea more likely than not

will do what it has over the past two or three years which is to be more provocative I think Kim jongan Feels emboldened by Putin's um unprecedented support for him the first meeting did not go well between the two men especially for Kim Jong-un he met Putin for the first time in Vlad BTO on April 25th 2019 and came out of the meeting feeling insulted because Putin told Kim at the meeting that tomorrow by the way I'm flying down to Beijing to attend the second belt and Road initiative conference it's considered RP diplomatic

protocol for the head of the host nation to fly out while the head of the the um visitor nation is still in your country almost R him uh like a tourist but as we saw at their second meeting in the Russian Far East on September 13th this year the two men look happy to meet each other again and of course there's a reason for that because Putin needs Kim almost as much as Kim needs Putin um we know that Putin needs ammunition um artillery Shields and so on from North Korea and North Korea needs help with

satellite and ICBM technology so we're living in a different world where there is unrestrained support for North Korea from Russia and China it remains to be seen whether China has supplied um any weapons to North Korea or to Russia but we know that China has been brazenly violating Security Council resolutions uh that it has signed on in the past uh that is selling Goods to North Korea sending Goods to North Korea buying coal from North Korea and also China's share of the Russian auto mobile market Market

went from 8% in 2021 to 55% this year in 2023 so China and Russia and North Korea are in the same camp just as they were during the days of the Cold War and I think Kim Jong feels further emboldened to be provocative because there's no real penalty that's been Meed out for North Korea's multiple ICBM tests and over 100 short range missiles that North Korea tested um over the course of the past almost two years now so yes whoever is elected in November uh matters to Kim Jong-un as well because Kim Jong-un and

Donald Trump had something akin to a rapport exchanging love letters as president Trump once said I think Donald Trump is the favorite us candidate from Kim jong-un's point of view and Kim Jong-un has actually some means to help Donald Trump if he invited Donald Trump to pongyang in the coming months uh and Trump made the visit then Trump can say look I have this special connection with Kim I can bring peace and denuclearization to the Korean Peninsula whereas Biden has been an utter failure over the past almost four years and so

on and that can be helpful to Trump's candidacy and once if Trump were to be president once again then there are legitimate concerns of course for America's allies uh NATO and Japan and South Korea um so yes although we cannot predict what will happen there are some risks that we have to not only live with but plan for yeah I think your remarks broadens our policy related imagination how we should cope with uh things happening next year so do you have anything that you can suggest to us or South Korean government

uh in the next year you already mentioned that the international environments surrounding North Korea is radically changing maybe in North Korea's favor so what should we do well Ian I'm calling for tough sanctions enforcement sanctions enforcement like domestic law enforcement takes a lot of f Manpower you have to do surveillance you have to investigate you have to build up a legal case all this is very labor intensive and the moment you let go everything falls apart so even the toughest criminal laws um on the books

if the law enforcement authorities do nothing don't enforce them they're meaningless likewise sanctions enforcement against North Korea really fell apart the moment Donald Trump said yes to Kim jongin's proposition for a summit meeting so um over the past five years or so sanctions enforcement has been feeble and China and Russia have brazenly violated uh Security Council resolutions that they had endorsed in the past that doesn't mean we have to give up on sanctions enforcement it should be a major um policy Visa North Korea at the

same time the free democracies in the region South Korea can do a lot more in terms of of information dissemination into North Korea and one basic information that needs to be made almost palpable To The World At Large is that the North Korean food insecurity situation near famine like situation every year since the real Famine of the mid90s this is all man-made and man sustained many people including Defenders of North Korea in the US argue that North Koreans are hungry R because because of us and un sanctions and

climate change these are baseless fearings you know us sanctions against North Korea until 2016 were very weak it was not until 2016 that the US actually came up with a North Korea specific sanctions legislation and with respect to un sanctions we know that there were no un sanctions until 2006 in the wake of North Korea's first nuclear test on October 9th in then there was a tough Security Council resolution number 1718 10 years after the onset of the famine and by what Marvel of nature does climate change every year stop right at

the border with China and with South Korea hardly anyone in China or South Korea goes goes to bed hungry no one is starving basically so if North Korea spent about $200 million doar to import food and distributed it equitably no man or woman or child would be hungry but North Korea chooses not to and the UN has many reports on food in insecurity one is the annual the state of food and nutrition in the world the most recent 20 23 report is out one measurement is um the prevalence of undernourishment in

the total population North Korea for the past several years has been in the world's top five worst cases this year it's number one is M Madagascar with 51% of the population who are hungry uh number two is Somalia with 49% and then number three is North Korea with 46% what really stands out I put one together top 20 Nations adult illiteracy the inability to even write your name the inability to read or write a simple sentence is high as 62% in many countries it's in the upper 20s or mid 30s meaning and North Korea

of course it's completely literate North Korea did eradicated adult illiteracy even before South Korea sometime in the mid 70s so this isn't an artificial man sustained miserable situation people living in Zimbabwe in Sierra Leon where illiteracy is 52% in Afghanistan where where illiteracy is 62% um they are eating better than North Koreans this is a shocking phenomenon that has continued for more than 30 years now many of us living in free societies we have no direct experience of state sponsored crimes like constant

surveillance or arbitrary arrest and torture or Poli iCal prison camps these serious crimes are therefore harder to empathize with they're something like an abstraction whereas everyone has been hungry at some point by choice or circumstance you know it's not a pleasant feeling and this chronic hunger and physical and mental atrophy of our fellow Koreans in the north that's been going on for three decades we need to hold somebody accountable for this serious crime I think that story needs to be told the people of North Korea

need to be told the truth so that they come to realize how relatively oppressed how extremely repressed they are so we need some good information campaign as well in addition to sanctions enforcement