[EAI International Conference]

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFmdJ90PaAk

The East Asia Institute (EAI) held an international conference on "Security Challenges and Responses in the Post-COVID-19 Era: Climate Change, Pandemics, Economic Security, and Cyber Security" on December 11 and 12. The opening ceremony on the 11th featured a welcome address by EAI President Yeol Son (Professor, Yonsei University) and a keynote speech by EAI Chairman Ha Young-sun (Professor Emeritus, Seoul National University). Chairman Ha diagnosed the 21st-century world as facing crises in six major areas: security, economy, political systems, environment, technology, and global governance. He proposed overcoming these crises by establishing a structure where international actors engage in co-evolution through parallel competition and cooperation in each area.

■ Contact and Editing: Han-Soo Park EAI Researcher

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | hspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

My name is Yeol Son. I am the President of EAI. On behalf of EAI, I would like to welcome all of you, including renowned scholars and distinguished guests. Thank you for being here. I am honored and pleased to take this opportunity to work with distinguished experts, participants, and scholars present today for a two-day conference. Especially, I would like to thank the funder for this wonderful conference. EAI is a nonpartisan think tank primarily

working on foreign policy, North Korea, and Asian democracy cooperation, among others. One important research project concerns the post-COVID world order. During COVID, EAI has worked on various webinars on the post-COVID, post-Corona world order. This is one of those efforts. We have experienced the existing international order, the world order, fracturing. The COVID pandemic has accelerated that trend. Inequality within the nation and between nations, populism, nationalism, distrust in multilateralism and international institutions, and also the accelerating pace of the rise of China and US-China strategic competition. But at the same time, we are witnessing the rise of emerging security issues. We might see a moment of appeal in that sense. The pandemic has clearly demonstrated how infectious diseases, climate change, climate crisis, weapon development facilitated by cryptocurrency theft in cyberspace, and

the weaponization of economic interdependence have all transformed the landscape of national and international security and, subsequently, the world order. Recent public opinion polls conducted by EAI have demonstrated changes in the perception of threats to the public. Two years ago, during the pandemic, EAI did a public opinion poll, and the top, the most serious threat to you, the top was pandemic and infectious diseases. That was 45% of respondents who said that is the most

serious one. US-China competition and confrontation was second, 44%, a close second. And the trade and tech war is also 44%. And traditional threats like nuclear, North Korean nuclear and missile development was 35%. So, among the top four, three are what we discuss today and tomorrow. This year, we did the same survey, and the numbers are roughly very similar. The top is trade and tech war, which is 55% of respondents said. And very close next is nuclear, North Korean

serious one, uh, US-China competition and confrontation was second at 44%, um, you know, a close second, um, and the trade and tech war is also 44%. Traditional, uh, threats like nuclear, uh, you know, North Korean nuclear and missile, uh, development was, uh, 35%. So, um, among the top four, the top three are what we discuss today and tomorrow. Um, this year we did the same survey, and the numbers are, um, roughly very similar. The top, um, is the trade and tech war, which 55% of respondents cited. And very close next is nuclear North Korean.

nuclear development, which is 54%. And climate change this time is 41%, which is the third security threat. So we have seen quite big changes. Traditionally, number one is always North Korea, that is the core of South Korea's security threat perception. But now that perception is increasingly diverse, complex, and multi-dimensional. So, in that sense, we are discussing three of those top four threat perceptions that South Korean people have addressed today and tomorrow.

COVID-19 marks a moment of reckoning for the present era and the future. It is, like I said, a multi-dimensional emergency and crisis that requires efforts from all many disciplines. Today, we have experts from many disciplines and a whole-of-government approach, obviously. So, in this sense, the study of emerging security becomes, I mean, needs new analytical frameworks and new concepts and rigorous research to gain accurate insights and craft suitable responses to these evolving

challenges that are coming. So, EAI is proud of hosting this International Conference, "Coping with Security Challenges in the Post-COVID-19 World," to analyze key issues and challenges in emerging security, from climate change, health, economy, and cybersecurity. I hope that this event seeks to chart future pathways for Korea and the global community to tackle the emerging crises. I look forward to great discussion, debate, and dialogue. Thank you very much. It is

my pleasure to have a talk on the new perspective of competitive symbiosis in the age of complex crisis for this conference's timely and importance. Conferences, the contemporary civilization in the 21st century is now facing six major crises. The first one is complex security crisis. As the recent US-China Summit meeting in San Francisco shows, two big powers will not easily face off at a stage where the US military dominance is still maintained as it is now. However, it is probable that mutual misjudgment over

the core interests of the US and China may ignite military clashes in the hotspots of the Indo-Pacific region. Moreover, the US government has speculated that US-China military power in 2050 could become much more competitive. This led the US to renew and amplify its armed forces under the Integrated Deterrent strategy through utilizing conventional, nuclear, and AI weapon systems across complex domains of traditional, cyber, and outer spaces, while working with allies and partners. The PLA also pledges to modernize the People's

Liberation Army by 2035 to make them the world's most invincible armed forces by 2050. If, by any chance, US-China rivalry becomes intense by the mid-21st century, this will heighten the risk of strategic deterioration. The second one is the economic deglobalization crisis. After the end of the Cold War in 1991, the trend of globalization continuously increased in the liberal international order. However, since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, signs of deglobalization began to appear. In addition, as the disputes between the

US and China over trade escalate, the level of contention over the reconstruction of the global and regional trade order became ever more severe. Uncertainties are rising over rebuilding an open global economic order as the US and China are tactically involved in competition over the reorganization of supply chains in key technologies and industries by elevating levels of economic and security links beyond the protected tariff war. The third one is the global legitimacy crisis. The current Riffed US-China

relationship prompts both sides to enter the phase of full-fledged competition over legitimacy. The US has carried out global efforts to disseminate American democracy, which is distinct from Chinese socialism, in a bid to lay the groundwork for legitimacy in the world order in the 21st century. On the other hand, the Chinese have emphasized ushering in a new era for Chinese socialism as a standard for new civilization by 2050. They lashed out at the US efforts as an infringement of China's core

interest, which could be the core cause for generating the likelihood of confrontation and discord between the two sides. The discord between the established and rising powers in the history of the modern world order, in most cases, stemmed from the struggle over legitimacy, especially when there were military asymmetries. But once the emerging powers' demands for legitimacy are not accepted, then war eventually broke out in the next phase through a rise for military armament. The fourth one is the anthroposcene

scene crisis. In 2000, considering the rapidly growing impacts of human activities on Earth and the atmosphere, Paul Crutzen proposed to use the term Anthropocene for the current geological epoch. COVID-19 pandemic and climate change are two representative examples of the Anthropocene. The COVID-19 pandemic originated from human-caused disruption of the viral sphere and also spread rapidly on the urbanized and globalized stage. Climate change is also linked to the increased level of harmful carbon resulting from rapid industrialization. In comparison with 4

billion years of Earth's history and viruses, the modern form of human beings began to originate during the last 200,000 years and is now playing the leading role on Earth with a great acceleration of human history since the 1950s. From this perspective, COVID-19 pandemic and climate change crisis can be interpreted as a fight back against the excessive role of humans on Earth. The fifth one is existential crisis from the high technology revolution. The revolutionary development in cutting-

edge technology has established itself as a cornerstone, following the history of religion, politics, and economy. It paved the way for new opportunities in complex stages. Simultaneously, however, the impact of the misuse and abuse of advanced technology, such as artificial general intelligence and superintelligence, will lead to a detrimental crisis that will accelerate the end of human civilization, specifically in four major stages: military, economy, culture, and ecology. With the recent developments in

cutting-edge technologies, both the US and China consider technology as a core factor that could set the tone for relations between the two countries. Thus, the US is endeavoring to reinforce international solidarity to contain China in areas such as AI, 5G, Big Data, robotics, aerospace, and quantum computing, which are the essential features of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. China has strengthened its domestic technology capabilities and seeks to break through to reduce gaps in the high-tech domain. The sixth one is the

crisis of global governance. According to the classic definition given by the 1995 Commission on Global Governance for global military and non-military security, global governance should represent the sum of the many ways individuals and institutions, public and private, manage their common affairs. Entering the 21st century, the traditional US-led liberal system of global governance is now facing difficulties and the emerging challenges of new actors such as China, India, middle powers, and Global South countries. Complex stages, including old

and new agendas and new performances of competitive symbiosis, we do need to accomplish three major tasks of building the architecture of competitive symbiosis to overcome six critically important crises that could unfold after COVID-19. First, given the increasingly intricate and diversified circumstances that the world is now facing, the global actors in the 21st century should necessarily be constructed as having multi-dimensional and multi-phase facet characteristics that affect all spheres of global concerns.

However, the current US standard of competition without catastrophe and China's new type of international relations do not deviate remarkably from the state-centric concept of modern international order. The deepening US-China strategic competition is not just a matter of survival between the two superpowers but a matter of survival for the entire planet. In this regard, all related parties must converge to effectively grapple with the cascaded challenges by coming up with possible alternatives for

instance, the issue concerning North Korea's denuclearization also demands complex efforts by relevant actors to impose economic sanctions, apply military deterrence, and globally guarantee the national security and economic development of North Korea in return for denuclearization. In the case of the COVID-19 pandemic, although there is a new question that neoliberal globalization revealed a series of contradictions and flaws in the process of devising treatments to help the immune system fight

COVID-19, the anti-globalist movement did not successfully suggest an alternative. Thus, careful consideration for reglobalization is inevitable. There are movements encouraging self-reflection on the belief that human agency is the driving force of the modern world. Discussions over the contemporary ecological crisis took place in a time of worries about the ramifications of human factors on the ecosystem, which is a critical issue in the Anthropocene debate. The standard for the global order in an era of new

civilization following COVID-19 will need to incorporate newly emerging protagonists who are capable of responding to a multifaceted situation on the globe. Second, it appears that the time is right for devising a valuable blueprint to rebuild the world order based on recent developments in international politics where myriad crises are intertwined in a complex form. To resolve the world's most pressing problems in the area of a new civilization, a three-tier architecture should be built to respond

flexibly to the overarching tasks presented in international politics. First, the middle tier encompasses four critical sectors, which constitute the primary section of the architecture. First two sectors, ecology and culture, which are intrinsically and extrinsically linked to the new chronic postmodern crisis. The last two are security and prosperity, which are indispensable components that play critical roles in preventing the crisis emanating from the modern era. Second, the revolution of information and communication

technology positioned itself as the bottom tier of the architecture, acting as a driving force that refurbishes the middle tiers. However, one should be aware that revolutionary developments in artificial intelligence and advanced technologies tend to contribute less to human satisfaction and more to bolstering domination. Thus, catastrophic outcomes can be stayed by carefully laid plans and closely coordinated schemes. Third, in the upper tier of the architecture, address the co-governance stage, which is responsible for managing

and regulating the complex web of political, economic, ecological, cultural, and technological interdependence. Finally, third, a detailed examination of how international actors perform in the global sphere is an important task. The protagonists in the modern international order have abided by the principle of competition, which is the crux of traditional international politics, where prosperity and military defense are the necessary ingredients for the survival of nation-states. They also preferred minimal cooperation as a tool to fend off the maximization of conflict, such as war and poverty. However, the era of neutral civilization requires global protagonists not only to pursue foreign policy that puts significant emphasis on states to act according to the situation where competition, cooperation, and conflicts take place but to get themselves prepared to effectively deal with more complex states of affairs in the postmodern world. The successful rebuilding of new civilization in the 21st century will depend upon on how

global actors demonstrate relentless efforts to reach self-organization for survival and prosperity. They should simultaneously devote ultimate efforts for co-evolution with other protagonists as well. The world order following COVID-19 is at a crossroads where newly emerging complex crises are calling for measures to be taken from a new perspective of competitive symbiosis of world politics. There is no question that the world order in the 21st century will promptly approach toward the

apocalyptic stage of human history if no substantial alternatives are formulated. In parallel, South Korea, as a global people-state, should also contribute to initiating the Korean model of competitive symbiosis. Thank you.

apocalyptic stage of human history if no substantial alternatives are formulated. In parallel, South Korea, as a global people-state, should also contribute to initiating the Korean model of competitive symbiosis. Thank you.