North Korea and the World: Kim Ju-ae and the Future of North Korea's Fourth-Generation Succession

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jVK5cByx_yU

Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies and Professor at Ewha Womans University, explains the background and implications of Kim Ju-ae's appearance in North Korea and presents prospects for the fourth-generation succession. Director Park analyzes that Kim Jong Un is attempting to strengthen the legitimacy of his regime by touting nuclear weapons development as his achievement, and that Kim Ju-ae was exposed to the public to impart a symbolic meaning of being able to provide 'happiness' to future generations through the advancement of nuclear capabilities. In particular, considering the difficulty for a female leader to seize power in North Korea, which maintains a conservative, male-dominated Confucian culture, Director Park explains that Kim Ju-ae is likely to remain a propaganda tool to strengthen Kim Jong Un's ruling system.

■ Park Won-gonDirector, EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor, Department of North Korean Studies, Ewha Womans University.

■ Managed and Edited by: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

This year, the military parade was held three times. Kim Ju-ae participated in two of them. Every time she participates, North Korean military personnel say things like this: 'One day, that statement will come out, and it will be decided that Kim Ju-ae is the successor for the fourth generation.' While a fourth-generation succession will undoubtedly be attempted, and it will undoubtedly be of the Paektu bloodline, it is still too early to conclude that it has been decided with Kim Ju-ae. Hello, and thank you sincerely to everyone watching Park Won-gon's North Korea and the World. This week, we will delve into North Korea's internal political situation to discuss what kind of situation North Korea is in, what it is interested in, and how things are developing. First, I would like to start by posing a question today. Perhaps many of you have heard this name.

It is Kim Ju-ae, Kim Jong Un's daughter. Kim Ju-ae first appeared on November 18 last year, and her appearances have continued since then. Most recently, she appeared at the military parade celebrating the anniversary of the founding of their regime, as North Korea calls it. This shows that Kim Ju-ae continues to appear and is undoubtedly a global news item. The most significant question is whether a 10-year-old girl will become Kim Jong Un's successor. Another, in a broader context, as you all know, North Korea had a third-generation succession. Will this now move to a fourth-generation succession? And will Kim Ju-ae be the successor in this fourth-generation succession? These debates continue. Today, I intend to discuss these issues along with the fundamental characteristics of North Korea's political system.

In a broad sense, I believe many of you may not be aware of this, but we do not actually know much about Kim Ju-ae. The reason I say this is that North Korean media has never officially used the name Kim Ju-ae. They use expressions like 'beloved, respected,' or 'most beloved child,' but her exact name has never been revealed. So, where did we hear the name Kim Ju-ae? This can be described as an interesting and peculiar story. The person who first revealed this was Dennis Rodman, a former American NBA professional basketball player. Many of you who remember the era when he played with Michael Jordan on the Chicago Bulls in the 90s, and fans of the Chicago Bulls, will know this famous basketball player. He was known for his tattoos all over his body and his rebounding skills, and he was quite an eccentric player.

He was also a basketball player with many scandals. After Kim Jong Il died in late 2011 and Kim Jong Un took power, the United States and the entire world were tense because not much was known about Kim Jong Un. It was known that he had studied in Bern, Switzerland, and was a fan of the Chicago Bulls at the time. He wore Chicago Bulls clothing and was known to have only worn limited edition merchandise. Initially, they tried to connect with the U.S. government.

However, they gave up on that. Instead, a company called Vice, which is very popular among young American millennials and creates provocative documentaries, heard about this. They decided they wanted to meet Kim Jong Un and create a documentary that would truly capture global attention. They sought out former Chicago Bulls players. However, no one wanted to go. Meeting Kim Jong Un in North Korea was an unimaginable prospect, but Dennis Rodman raised his hand at that moment.

He had made a lot of money, but he was reportedly in a difficult financial situation. So, he went. As I recall, he went about three times. On one of those trips, Dennis Rodman met Kim Jong Un. He met him twice, and it was revealed through Ri Sol-ju that they had a daughter, and her name was Kim Ju-ae. This was first reported when Dennis Rodman gave an interview to The Guardian in September 2013, stating that Kim Jong Un had a daughter named Kim Ju-ae. Even researchers who study North Korea and people familiar with North Korea find the channels through which information is obtained to be quite complex and unexpected.

Of course, I believe our government and the U.S. government have made their own judgments, but to my knowledge, this is the first time it was revealed in the manner I have described. Now, let's get to the main point: Will Kim Ju-ae be the successor in the fourth succession? In broad terms, to state my conclusion first, it is still too early. One thing is certain: Kim Jong Un will attempt a fourth succession, and the successor will be from the Paektu bloodline. The Paektu bloodline refers to the direct lineage originating from Kim Il Sung – Kim Il Sung, Kim Jong Il, and Kim Jong Un. It is certain that this Paektu bloodline will inherit the leadership.

However, the process of reaching the fourth generation is fraught with uncertainty. I will now explain the basis for my statement. The first instance was on November 18, 2022, when Kim Ju-ae first appeared. North Korea launched the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, and Kim Jong Un brought Kim Ju-ae to the missile launch site, where she was photographed for the first time and revealed to the world. North Korea typically launches weapons systems like the Hwasong-17.

After North Korea conducts high-intensity provocations or undertakes actions they deem significant, they usually publish a commentary in the Rodong Sinmun. In our terms, it would be like an editorial. For researchers, it's somewhat burdensome, as these articles are typically between 10,000 and 15,000 characters long. This time was no exception. After the ICBM Hwasong-17 was launched, a lengthy article was published on the 20th, titled 'Solemn Declaration of the Workers' Party of Korea.' A particular passage in this article caught my eye: explaining the significance of launching the Hwasong-17, it stated that it is for the happiness of the people and to protect a bright future.

This implies that through the Hwasong-17 weapon, they are providing happiness not only to the current North Korean residents but also to future generations. Therefore, since she appeared at that time, the reason Kim Ju-ae was brought along is likely to imbue a symbolic meaning of being able to provide happiness for the future through the weapons systems created by Kim Jong Un. This is also connected to a fundamental understanding of North Korea: how should we view North Korea? Many scholars have defined this. For example, Wada Haruki, a professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, defined North Korea as a 'guerrilla state,' originating from Kim Il Sung's anti-Japanese partisan struggle in Manchuria in the 1930s. North Korea continues to reproduce this narrative, which forms the ideological foundation of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, established in 1948. Even now, during military parades, symbolic units reenacting the partisans of that era, wearing their uniforms, march at the forefront. This remains symbolically important. Furthermore, anthropologist Lee Moon-woong referred to North Korea as a 'family state.' He explained that North Korea regards the supreme leader, the 'Suryong,' as a father figure, to whom absolute loyalty must be shown. Conversely, the father figure loves all North Korean people. This concept of a reciprocal state has been created and continues to function effectively in North Korea. Another aspect is that it is a Confucian state. Arguably, North Korea emphasizes Confucian traditions more than any other country in the world. The core tenets of Confucianism are loyalty ('chung') and filial piety ('hyo').

From North Korea's perspective, both loyalty and filial piety are necessary. Loyalty refers to loyalty to the nation, and filial piety refers to devotion to the father figure. As mentioned, Kim Il Sung established himself as the father figure worthy of filial piety, creating a crucial ideological virtue that enables North Korean citizens to demonstrate loyalty and filial piety. This is very important for maintaining the state system. North Korea possesses such traditions. Furthermore, one of the characteristics of Confucianism is its extreme conservatism and emphasis on abstract principles, while rejecting pragmatism. I believe these points largely represent the current North Korean system. Therefore, in large-scale mass games in North Korea, slogans like this often appear on banners:

'Do not expect any change from me.' This can be seen as an inheritance of Confucian principles. I believe this is connected to Kim Ju-ae in all aspects. How can the 10-year-old Kim Ju-ae inherit the tradition of the partisans? In the family tradition, the father figure is primarily male; can Kim Ju-ae replace this male image? Thirdly, North Korea has the most male-dominated and conservative culture in the world; can a female leader emerge from such a society? Moreover, no matter how much the North Korean system is a hereditary succession system of the Paektu bloodline, a new leader must differentiate themselves from the previous leader and possess their own achievements.

Only then can they gain legitimacy among the North Korean people. For example, when Kim Jong Il inherited power in 1994, North Korea faced the 'Arduous March' in the late 1990s, during which one to two million people are estimated to have starved to death. Yet, North Korea did not collapse. Kim Jong Il managed to overcome this period of hardship by emphasizing the history of resistance of his father, Kim Il Sung, through the slogan 'prioritizing the military.' This became an achievement that allowed Kim Jong Il to continue leading North Korea. Kim Jong Un is currently writing a new history: the history of missile development. He has developed a wide variety of missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads and attacking targets in the Korean Peninsula, Japan, Guam, and the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the U.S. mainland. This is represented by various forms of intercontinental ballistic missiles such as Hwasong-15, -17, and -18. This is becoming Kim Jong Un's unique achievement, which he constantly talks about. Starting with Kim Il Sung's partisan struggle in the 1930s, his father Kim Jong Il endured the Arduous March, but Kim Jong Un has surpassed all of that and completed the development of the Hwasong series of weapons. He has completed the narrative that this completion guarantees the people's livelihood and extends responsibility to future generations. Although this has become a lengthy explanation, the question remains: can Kim Ju-ae achieve such a feat in this context? If not, can she rule solely by relying on the achievements of her predecessors, as in the so-called 'legacy politics' of the past? This is the first issue. Additionally, the need for 'politics of display,' which can impress the people and threaten the world, is also necessary, but this is not yet visible and seems difficult. As you know, there have been three military parades this year. Kim Ju-ae participated in two of them. Even if she hadn't participated, the same slogans would likely be heard, but North Korean military personnel say things like this:

The Paektu bloodline must be defended to the death; Kim Ju-ae must be defended to the death. One day, that statement will come out, and it will be decided that Kim Ju-ae is the successor for the fourth generation. As I mentioned at the beginning, a fourth-generation succession will undoubtedly be attempted, and it will undoubtedly be of the Paektu bloodline, but it is still too early to conclude that it has been decided with Kim Ju-ae. This is my basic judgment. Kim Jong Un is still accumulating achievements for future generations through Kim Ju-ae, and furthermore, as a father figure, he is taking responsibility for and loving future generations, which is a symbolic representation in line with the principle of prioritizing the masses.

My heart is heavy. A fourth-generation succession is unprecedented. This reflects the pre-modernity inherent in the North Korean system. Many European countries, even amidst the current war in Ukraine, have moved beyond the nation-state model of the 19th and 20th centuries and are advancing with the creation of a unified entity like the EU in the 21st century. Yet, on the Korean Peninsula, we still have to discuss a fourth-generation succession, which is a remnant of pre-modernity. As a researcher and as a citizen, I find this very regrettable. That is all for today.

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