North Korea and the World: Four ROK-US Military Options

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L5lB08A18U

Park Won-gon, Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies and Professor at Ewha Womans University, examines four military options available to South Korea and the United States regarding North Korea and discusses the possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula in the future. Explaining the limitations of each of the 'preemptive strike,' 'preventive war,' 'decapitation strike,' and 'bloody nose' operations mentioned as military options against North Korea, Park assesses that a South Korea-US invasion of North Korea is practically impossible. Furthermore, Park explains that North Korea, despite knowing this fact, consistently labels ROK-US joint exercises as 'Northward invasion plots' to leverage external tension for internal unity.

■ Park Won-gon_Director of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies. Professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.

■ Production and Editing: Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr

Video Script

Since there is no will for denuclearization, they are attacking North Korea's symbolic targets. For example, deliberately attacking the Yongbyon nuclear facility or attacking statues in Pyongyang. If such military options were chosen, would North Korea remain idle? Moreover, if North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons, responds to such limited military operations, the possibility of full-scale war increases. Welcome and thank you for joining Park Won-gon's North Korea and the World. Today's topic is very sensitive and very important from South Korea's perspective as well. It is the topic of whether South Korea and the United States will invade North Korea. I will discuss this topic. When I say this, North Korea constantly refers to the joint exercises conducted by South Korea and the United States as a 'Northward invasion plot'.

It calls it a "provocation exercise." To be precise, the Korean Central News Agency clearly defined this exercise held from late May to early June as follows: "It clearly shows the US-led joint military scheme to achieve a preemptive military action plan against our state and demonstrates the enemy's readiness for military action to invade our republic." Following the ROK-US Camp David Summit, North Korea also stated that ROK-US joint exercises are 'nuclear war exercises'.

I will quote North Korea precisely on this as well: "Even before the ink on these agreements, which have concretized and formalized plans for nuclear war provocations on the Korean Peninsula, had dried, exercises were underway to implement them." It also stated, "This shows that the excuse of being defensive cannot hide the reality." In summary, since the 1970s, South Korea and the United States have conducted joint exercises. North Korea has consistently claimed that these joint exercises are 'Northward invasion exercises' aimed at a preemptive attack on North Korea by South Korea and the United States in collusion. Today, I will discuss whether this is indeed the case.

First, there was the firepower suppression test exercise I mentioned briefly earlier. The scenario for this exercise is what I will discuss today. The materials are publicly available on the internet. The South Korean Ministry of National Defense released the scenario for this firepower suppression exercise, although not in detail. However, the general direction and starting points are clearly confirmed. It states that the exercise begins with North Korea's long-range artillery, deployed forward near the DMZ, initiating an attack on South Korea. This is the primary premise. The scenario discusses this situation. In other words, since North Korea first launched an attack towards South Korea, this is a scenario where South Korea retaliates against that initiated attack.

In a way, if North Korea does not attack first, it means that South Korea would not attack first, which is completely untrue. If North Korea attacks with long-range artillery, South Korea first defends against it. Once defense reaches a certain level, it then counterattacks. Therefore, some commonly refer to this as a defensive exercise, while others call it a counterattack exercise. I reiterate that the very first premise and starting point of this exercise is that North Korea first launched a full-scale attack on South Korea. Additionally, South Korea conducted the Ulchi Freedom Shield (UFS) exercise from August 21 to 31 for 11 days. There is much discussion about this as well, but it clearly begins with the premise that South Korea defends against a full-scale invasion by North Korea. Therefore, are there any scenarios in past joint exercises where, as North Korea claims, South Korea attacks North Korea first or launches a surprise attack? There are no such scenarios.

South Korea has operational plan 5015. I understand that this operational plan is currently being revised. Plan 5015 basically consists of, as mentioned earlier, phase one: defense, and phase two: counterattack. The scenario is structured such that if North Korea launches a full-scale attack on South Korea, the ROK-US combined forces will defend against that attack, and then at a certain point, counterattack against North Korea. I will now discuss each military option. What does North Korea mean by preemptive strike and invasion? The concept needs to be clearly understood.

There is a preemptive strike and a preventive war. This is a bit complex. A preemptive strike is a 'preemptive strike.' What North Korea refers to is closer to what I will call a preventive war later. A preemptive strike is recognized to some extent as self-defense under international law. If there are clear signs that North Korea is about to attack South Korea, for example, war does not start overnight. To launch a proper attack, extensive preparations are required beforehand. This is what we call 'preparatory signs'.

Of course, our operational plan also includes judging and identifying preparatory signs based on North Korea's movements. This would involve a full mobilization order for all troops. The divisions deployed forward would need to form attack formations, and their artillery would need to be aimed at South Korea. All these processes are prepared in advance before an attack. At the point when these preparatory signs are accurately assessed and it is confirmed that North Korea will clearly start a war, the ROK-US combined forces can launch an attack.

As I mentioned, this is considered an exercise of the right to self-defense under international law. In past Middle Eastern conflicts, when it was clearly confirmed that Syria and Egypt were mobilizing their troops and preparing to attack Israel, the Israeli Air Force first attacked Egypt and Syria. The international community did not deem this illegal. This is what we call a preemptive strike. Conversely, this means that an attack is launched because North Korea clearly intended to attack South Korea, not because South Korea is preparing for war and attacking North Korea, as North Korea claims. That is entirely incorrect.

What North Korea commonly refers to as a preemptive strike is this type. In fact, there is another form of preemptive strike: if North Korea is preparing to launch a nuclear missile towards South Korea, and if this is clear and certain, then the ROK-US forces can attack it. However, this is not an easy task. It is, in fact, a very difficult operation. First, it is not easy to definitively determine whether North Korea's nuclear missiles are equipped with nuclear warheads. Second, North Korea possesses many mobile launchers, often referred to as TELs (Transporter Erector Launchers). When North Korea launches such missiles, only a few of these numerous mobile launchers become active. Therefore, it is difficult for the ROK-US forces to accurately identify which mobile launcher is launching the missile. Even if identified, the time to detect, identify, and intercept is very short. Therefore, another form of preemptive strike is not something that can be easily discussed with current technological capabilities.

Second, let me discuss preventive war. I believe that what North Korea refers to as an invasion war is much closer to this preventive war. In English, it is called a 'preventive strike.' This means that since North Korea possesses nuclear weapons and is unwilling to abandon them, the ROK-US forces would launch a preemptive attack to destroy North Korea's nuclear facilities and missiles. A war initiated with this objective is a preventive war. The war in Iraq is often referred to as a preventive war. This is because the George W. Bush administration initially claimed that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction that posed a threat to the United States and the international community, and they invaded. However, in reality, there were not many weapons of mass destruction. Thus, although the nature of the war changed, it was a form of preventive war.

Therefore, a preventive war would involve South Korea and the United States attacking North Korea first to eliminate the threat posed by North Korea's nuclear weapons and missiles. Do you think this is possible? I believe this is also nearly impossible for several reasons. First, it is understood that North Korea's facilities for producing nuclear materials, such as highly enriched uranium, are scattered throughout the country. The first challenge is whether we can accurately pinpoint the locations of these facilities. Even if we know their locations, can we accurately locate and attack all of North Korea's missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, as well as the mobile launch vehicles that can fire them? This is nearly impossible. If such an action were taken, it would essentially require preparing for a full-scale war. The ROK-US combined forces would have to search every nook and cranny of North Korea to achieve that objective. Is there a possibility that South Korea and the United States would engage in a full-scale war with North Korea? In a broad sense, regardless of North Korea's claims, there is no possibility that South Korea and the United States would initiate a war first.

There is no such provision in the operational plan, and politically, it is inconceivable for any president of South Korea or the United States to initiate a war with North Korea first. For South Korea, the possibility of immense suffering and devastation from such a war is too great, and for the United States, the potential for significant casualties is also immense. Therefore, it is unlikely that South Korea and the United States would attack first unless in a truly dire crisis situation as described. Let me mention another military option.

This is commonly referred to as a 'decapitation strike,' but I believe this is a very inaccurate term. The accurate term is 'major leadership removal operation.' In English, it is called a High-Value Target (HVT) operation. This type of operation was conducted by the United States in 2011 to eliminate Osama bin Laden. There is much discussion about this operation, with media often referring to 'decapitation units' and training. If war breaks out, it is natural to remove North Korea's key leadership, given the nature of its regime. This applies to all modern warfare; all capabilities and forces are projected to eliminate the leadership because if the leadership is eliminated, the will to fight is significantly broken, especially in a regime like North Korea's. However, is it possible to conduct a major leadership removal operation against Kim Jong-un under normal circumstances? I believe this is also impossible.

North Korea is a closed society. Therefore, to conduct a major leadership removal operation, special forces would need to infiltrate North Korea. Is this even possible? Even if infiltration were possible, where would North Korea's key leadership be located? Can we conduct an operation with accurate intelligence? More importantly, even if all these conditions are met, what happens after the key leadership is eliminated? That is a much more complex issue. If the North Korean leadership is gone, in what direction will North Korea move? If we consider that far ahead, extensive political groundwork must be laid in advance. Crucially, relations with China must also be resolved. Then, the post-leadership regime in North Korea must be fully envisioned, the individuals who will lead that regime must be identified, and prior coordination with China must be established. Under the current circumstances, I believe this is also nearly impossible. The last military option is what is known as a 'bloody nose' operation. This involves North Korea continuously developing nuclear weapons and...

...having no intention of denuclearization, so they attack symbolic targets in North Korea. For example, deliberately attacking the Yongbyon nuclear facility or attacking statues in Pyongyang. The intention is to induce North Korea to engage in dialogue and abandon its nuclear weapons by demonstrating military power. But is this possible? I believe this is also an impossible operation. First, if such military options were chosen, would North Korea remain idle? I do not think so. Moreover, if North Korea, which possesses nuclear weapons, responds to such limited military operations, the possibility of a full-scale war increases. Even if not a nuclear response, there is a high probability of retaliation using their conventional forces, which would increase the possibility of a full-scale war. Would political leaders of South Korea and the United States be able to make such a choice? Today, I have discussed several military scenarios.

So, to conclude, will South Korea and the United States invade North Korea, as North Korea claims? Are the joint exercises conducted by South Korea and the United States war games for invading North Korea? The conclusion, as I have stated, is no. The most important point here is that North Korea likely knows this far better than I do. A significant portion of this is military intelligence, and I believe North Korea has made every effort to gather information on military movements and operational plans over the past decades. Therefore, North Korea likely knows much more than I do, and the conclusion is that the North Korean leadership knows that South Korea and the United States will not attack first. Despite this, North Korea continues to call them 'invasion plots' because of its own political needs.

By creating external tension, North Korea, often referred to as the 'siege mentality' in North Korea, feels surrounded. By creating external tension, they can unite internally and maintain internal solidarity. This has been the core driving force for maintaining the North Korean regime for the past 70 years. Therefore, every time South Korea and the United States conduct joint exercises, they relentlessly criticize them as 'Northward invasion plots.' Today, we have addressed a very sensitive and, in some ways, controversial topic.

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