[Changing Korean Voters] Short Interview with the Author: ③ Has the Paradigm of 'Progressives in Gwangju/Jeolla, Conservatives in Daegu/Gyeongbuk' Been Broken?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVtvRg6dXj0

The East Asia Institute (EAI), in collaboration with Korea Research, is operating the project <Changing Korean Voters>, which studies the 20th presidential election and reform agendas in Korean politics, based on a presidential election panel survey. Following the release of special reports by the research team confirming the current state of public sentiment, we are releasing short interview videos with the authors to present key points for observing the trends of public sentiment changes revealed by this election.

■ Author: Lee Jae-mook_Associate Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS); Director of Public Relations, HUFS; Team Leader, BK21 Global Democracy and Human Security Research Team, Department of Political Science and International Relations. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Iowa. He currently serves as Director of Education for the Korean Political Science Association and Secretary-General of the Korean Association of Political Parties. His main research areas include political behavior, political processes, and American politics. His recent co-authored works include "Korean Political Parties and Democracy Diagnosed in the Political Arena" (2018, co-authored), "American Politics and East Asian Foreign Policy" (2017, co-authored), and "US-Korea Politics: Challenges and Changes" (2014, co-authored).

■ Responsible Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun _EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr

Video Script

As many of you may know, regionalism has often been cited as the single most important factor in the Korean voter market since democratization. However, since the 2000s, with the election of presidents Roh Moo-hyun and more recently Moon Jae-in, both from Busan and Gyeongnam, who belonged to the Democratic Party, and with the significant easing of regionalism in recent years, particularly in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions, other factors such as generation, ideology, or gender are emerging as crucial factors in elections. Interestingly, the Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung was not from Honam, and he himself highlighted being the first Democratic Party presidential candidate from Andong, representing the TK region. And Yoon Suk-yeol,

although a candidate from a conservative party, is from the Chungcheong region, not the traditional support base of the People Power Party in Daegu and Gyeongbuk. Therefore, I wondered how regionalism would play out this time. Upon examining the data, the Democratic Party's Lee Jae-myung received votes in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions at a level similar to Moon Jae-in's performance five years ago, suggesting that regionalism continues to be eased in the PK region. Furthermore, Lee Jae-myung, who often referred to himself as being from the TK region, received more votes in Daegu and Gyeongbuk than Moon Jae-in did five years ago.

There were such interesting aspects. In Honam, Yoon Suk-yeol and People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok put considerable effort into campaigning. Some opinion polls showed support exceeding 30%, leading to cautious optimism. While this did not materialize as expected, with support around 12-13%, Yoon Suk-yeol still secured over 10% in Gwangju and Jeonnam, indicating that the People Power Party, compared to the past, has shown some change in its ability to sway public opinion in Honam.

Another interesting point this time was the generational breakdown of party support and voting patterns. There was a noticeable shift in regionalism, particularly among younger voters. We also directly asked voters in each region whether they thought regionalism had eased. Voters in the traditionally strong regionalist areas of Yeongnam (Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam) and Honam (Gwangju/Jeolla) responded that regionalism had eased compared to other regions.

Therefore, although the pace may be slow, considering the patterns of the past decade or two and the recent presidential election, we anticipate that regionalism will continue to ease, potentially leading to reduced regional conflict and disparities in Korean society. It will be necessary to closely monitor whether this pattern continues or if new changes emerge in the upcoming June local elections and the 2024 general elections.