[Changing Korean Voters] Short Interview with the Author: ② Who were the voters who withdrew their support for the Democratic Party of Korea?

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uuEDpundpYk

The East Asia Institute (EAI) is operating the project <Changing Korean Voters>, which researches the 20th presidential election and reform agendas in Korean politics, based on the presidential election panel survey conducted with Korea Research. Following the release of special reports by the research team confirming the current state of public sentiment, we are releasing short interview videos with the authors to present key points for observing the trends in public sentiment changes revealed by this election.

■ Author: Jeong Han-wool_Senior Researcher and Research Designer specializing in public opinion analysis at Korea Research. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and International Relations from Korea University. He has served as Deputy Director of the EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center, Deputy Director of the Center for Diplomacy and Security, and Secretary-General. His main research areas include elections and generational politics, national identity and security perceptions, and CSR-related surveys. His major publications (co-authored) include "20s Men," "20s Women," "Market and Democracy in the Age of Inequality," and "The Park Geun-hye Phenomenon."

■ Contact and Editing: Jeon Ju-hyeon _EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Yesterday, I looked at the 4,000 reports and the question of why the ruling party, which secured 180 seats in the general election held two years ago, was judged by the public in this election. I conducted research to examine the answer to this question through panel survey data. I mainly intended to discuss the choices of the 'departing Democratic supporters.' 'Departing Democratic supporters' refers to those who voted for the Democratic Party's satellite party, the Democratic Party, in the proportional representation vote in the 2020 general election, and then, in the first evaluation survey conducted in January, were classified as 'loyal Democratic supporters' if they continued to support the Democratic Party, and 'departing Democratic supporters' if they did not support the Democratic Party and had defected. By examining how the voting intentions and thoughts of 'loyal Democratic supporters' and 'departing Democratic supporters' differed, I sought to find the reasons why the Democratic Party, which received overwhelming support in the general election, lost this election.

The first thing we looked at was the size of the 'departing Democratic supporters' and 'loyal Democratic supporters.' Among the 249 people who said they voted for the ruling party in the proportional representation vote in the last general election, about 70% were found to still support the Democratic Party, while the remaining 30% were classified as 'departing Democrats' who voted for the Democratic Party but no longer support it. Thus, 7 out of 10 people withdrew their support for the Democratic Party, and these 'departing Democratic supporters' can be seen as the main factor behind the defeat of the Democratic Party candidate in the presidential election, despite receiving overwhelming support in the general election.

Looking at the composition of these 'departing Democrats,' in terms of age, those in their 20s and 30s were relatively high in proportion, and by region, the Gyeonggi-Incheon area, and in terms of ideology, the centrist-conservative group were characteristics of the 'departing Democrats.' In other words, young people, those in the Seoul metropolitan area, and the ideologically centrist-conservative group have largely withdrawn their support for the Democratic Party since the last general election. Looking at the changes in their votes, in the first survey, Lee Jae-myung received 36%, Yoon Suk-yeol 5%, and Ahn Cheol-soo 2%. Although the competition between the candidates was fierce, a considerable number defected to support Ahn Cheol-soo.

Looking at the final survey results, in our survey, Lee Jae-myung received 45% and Yoon Suk-yeol received 48%, showing a divided result. This is the result for all respondents. Now, let's look at how the voting intentions of 'departing Democratic supporters' and 'loyal Democratic supporters' differed. 'Loyal Democratic supporters' stated that from the first to the second survey, 86% to 89% supported Lee Jae-myung. This means they not only maintained their support for the Democratic Party but also overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party candidate, Lee Jae-myung. On the other hand, among 'departing Democratic supporters,' in the first survey, Lee Jae-myung received 25%, Yoon Suk-yeol 22%, and Ahn Cheol-soo 26%. Thus, the votes of 'departing Democratic supporters' were dispersed among Lee Jae-myung, Yoon Suk-yeol, and Ahn Cheol-soo. However, in the sixth survey, even among 'departing Democratic supporters,' Lee Jae-myung received 44% and Yoon Suk-yeol received 45%, showing results consistent with the overall election outcome. Ultimately, the withdrawal of support by these 'departing Democratic supporters' and their shift to supporting Yoon Suk-yeol became the main reason for Yoon Suk-yeol's victory in this election, despite the close race.

Looking at the reasons for defection among 'departing Democratic supporters,' the most significant factor was the evaluation of the incumbent government. When asked to rate the Moon administration's performance on a scale of 0 to 100, 'loyal Democratic supporters' gave an average score of 77%, while 'departing Democratic supporters' gave 56%, showing a clear difference in their evaluation of the government's performance. Regarding the question of whether this presidential election was a referendum on the Moon administration, 'loyal Democratic supporters' disagreed with a score of 1.5 points, while 'departing Democratic supporters' agreed with a score of 6.4 points. This indicates that the intention to pass judgment on the administration was significantly stronger among 'departing Democratic supporters' than among 'loyal Democratic supporters,' and this can be considered the first reason for their defection.

Secondly, it concerns the candidates. Similar to the 'loyal Democratic supporters,' who gave an average approval rating of 7.2 points for Lee Jae-myung and 6.2 points for the Democratic Party, showing high favorability, the 'departing Democratic supporters' had a significantly lower approval rating for President Moon at 5.0 points, and particularly for Lee Jae-myung, their approval rating was below the midpoint at 4.2 points, and for the Democratic Party, it was 4.0 points. This confirms that 'departing Democratic supporters' had relatively lukewarm feelings towards the President, the presidential candidate, and the Democratic Party, unlike the 'loyal Democratic supporters.' However, their approval ratings for Yoon Suk-yeol and the People Power Party were 7.3 points and 6.4 points, respectively. Despite their dislike for Lee Jae-myung and the Democratic Party, they also had relatively strong favorability towards Yoon Suk-yeol and the People Power Party, suggesting that they experienced significant conflict in their choices. Consequently, this seems to have been a key factor in splitting the support between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol.

Finally, looking at the issues that caused 'departing Democrats' to defect, compared to 'loyal Democratic supporters,' while issues such as Kim Keon-hee's false career allegations and Yoon Suk-yeol's personal scandals acted as key decision-making factors for 'loyal Democratic supporters,' 'departing Democratic supporters' cited real estate policy and the Daejang-dong development scandal as the most significant factors influencing their candidate choice.

Ultimately, the scandals that occurred late in the election campaign served to solidify the decisions of 'loyal Democratic supporters' but had limitations in regaining the support of 'departing Democratic supporters.' This ultimately became the driving force that allowed Yoon Suk-yeol to win the election, albeit by a narrow margin. Considering these points, the 'departing Democratic supporters' who supported the Democratic Party two years ago but withdrew their support in this election, have withdrawn their past support, and in this election, support for Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol was evenly matched. Therefore, looking ahead to the political landscape after the election, if these voters move towards supporting the current government's policies, it could provide a stable foundation. However, if they become disillusioned with the new government and defect again, the administration could face instability from its early stages. This is a possible prediction.

If they become disillusioned with the new government and defect again, the administration could face instability from its early stages. This is a possible prediction.