[Global NK Interview] Former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul (Professor, Inje University) on “The Next Government’s North Korea Policy Direction”

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXMaYnHXAcQ

The East Asia Institute (Director Yeol Son) operates an English-language web journal, sponsored by the Ministry of Unification, to overcome the reality where Western academia leads North Korea strategy and research, and to restore more balanced research on North Korea and Korean Peninsula issues, unification strategy, and East Asia strategy. This web journal interviews one prominent North Korea expert each month to present timely analyses of North Korea issues. In February, we invited former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul (Professor, Inje University) for a discussion to address the direction of North Korea policy for the next government that will emerge after the March presidential election. Minister Kim analyzed the strategic intentions behind North Korea's repeated missile provocations and predicted that North Korea would further escalate the level of provocations. Regarding the Moon Jae-in administration's North Korea policy, he pointed out as a regrettable aspect the failure to create an autonomous strategic space for South Korea to play a role between the U.S. and North Korea. He also advised that the next government should clearly define South Korea's national interests, establish a system to prepare for the era of comprehensive security, and strive to resolve the intergenerational perception gap regarding North Korea issues.

The East Asia Institute (Director Yeol Son) operates an English-language web journal, sponsored by the Ministry of Unification, to overcome the reality where Western academia leads North Korea strategy and research, and to restore more balanced research on North Korea and Korean Peninsula issues, unification strategy, and East Asia strategy. This web journal interviews one prominent North Korea expert each month to present timely analyses of North Korea issues. In February, we invited former Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul (Professor, Inje University) for a discussion to address the direction of North Korea policy for the next government that will emerge after the March presidential election. Minister Kim analyzed the strategic intentions behind North Korea's repeated missile provocations and predicted that North Korea would further escalate the level of provocations. Regarding the Moon Jae-in administration's North Korea policy, he pointed out as a regrettable aspect the failure to create an autonomous strategic space for South Korea to play a role between the U.S. and North Korea. He also advised that the next government should clearly define South Korea's national interests, establish a system to prepare for the era of comprehensive security, and strive to resolve the intergenerational perception gap regarding North Korea issues.

This interview consists of “Part 1: North Korea’s Missile Provocations and Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration’s North Korea Policy,” and “Part 2: The Next Government’s North Korea Policy Direction.”

I. North Korea May Pursue Plans Approaching the Red Line

• Former Minister Kim assesses the prospects for negotiations with the U.S. as "not optimistic."
• He states that while North Korea is currently focusing on diversifying and multiplying medium-range missiles within levels that do not cross the red line, "plans near the red line can be expected gradually."
• He specifically mentions that "satellite launches can also be expected" this year. However, he also raises the question, "Whether China and Russia will join the U.S. in additional sanctions within the UN Security Council regarding the 'peaceful use of outer space.'"

II. Evaluation of the Moon Administration’s North Korea Policy: “Structural Constraints on the Autonomy of North Korea Policy”

• Former Minister Kim states, "I believe the 'Spring of Pyeongchang' had a dual aspect." He explains that North Korea "declared the completion of its nuclear armament and used the Pyeongchang stage as an opportunity for negotiation," which is "duplicitous."
• He evaluates that the Moon administration at the time "should have analyzed these aspects more closely and entered the situation with a full understanding of the possibilities and limitations of negotiation."
• While various interpretations exist for the failure of the Hanoi summit in 2019, Former Minister Kim identifies the issue of "the space for relative autonomy in North Korea policy" as one of the key factors.
• He notes that "the autonomy of North Korea policy has been structurally constrained," but "efforts should have been made to create autonomous space" to fulfill roles such as mediation in negotiations. Because this was not done, "South Korea's role in breaking the stalemate was inevitably extremely limited."

III. Policy Recommendations for the Next Government

• Former Minister Kim presents three policy recommendations for the next government.
• First, he recommends defining "national interests from a broad perspective and with a long-term view."
• Second, he advises recognizing the advent of the era of comprehensive security and suggests that "the domains and functions of diplomacy and security, as well as policy decision-making structures, must also change."
• Third, he recommends resolving "perception gaps." He emphasizes the importance of "reducing the gap between generations to foster rational opinions, while accommodating changes in public sentiment in pursuing foreign and security policy."
• Furthermore, he stresses the importance of communication not only among domestic researchers but also with international researchers in the study of North Korean nuclear issues and the Korean Peninsula situation, suggesting that researchers' interest and cooperation will be necessary to resolve issues on the Korean Peninsula. ■

IV. Biography

■ Kim Yeon-chulFormer Minister of Unification and Professor at the Department of Unification Studies, Inje University. He holds a B.A., M.A., and Ph.D. in Political Science from Sungkyunkwan University. He previously served as the 16th President of the Korea Institute for National Unification, Director of the Hankyoreh Peace Institute, Policy Advisor to the Minister of Unification, Research Professor at the Asiatic Research Center, Korea University, and Senior Researcher at the North Korea Research Team, Samsung Economic Research Institute. His major publications include "Negotiation Strategy," "Memories of the Cold War," and "North Korea's Industrialization and Economic Policy."

■ Managed and Edited by: Lee Seung-yeon,EAI Research Fellow

    Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 205) | slee@eai.or.kr

Video Transcript

Everyone will remember the 'Spring of Pyeongchang' in 2018. Looking back now, I believe the 'Spring of Pyeongchang' had a dual aspect. North Korea was rushing towards completing its nuclear armament in 2017, and after declaring the completion of its nuclear armament, it used the Pyeongchang stage as a sort of opportunity for negotiation. On the other hand, due to the strong sanctions system in place, the space for relative autonomy in the South Korean government's North Korea policy was structurally constrained. However, in the end, to play a mediating role or other roles in the inter-Korean relations, efforts should have been made to create more autonomous space. This is my opinion.