[MBN-East Asia Institute Diplomacy Strategy Symposium] US-China Strategic Competition and South Korea's Middle Power Diplomacy

YouTube Link : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yebOhiinmzI

The East Asia Institute (Director Son Yeol) co-hosted a symposium with MBN on Thursday, October 29th, at the Glad Hotel in Yeouido. The symposium proceeded with sessions on US-China security competition and South Korea's strategy, US-China trade and technology competition and South Korea's strategy, and Empowering Middle Powers through Cooperative Networks. Participants in each session engaged in in-depth discussions on the direction South Korea should take and methods for middle power cooperation amidst intensifying US-China strategic competition.

This symposium was conducted in a hybrid format, with both on-site attendees who had pre-registered and live online participants. Australia, Germany, and Indonesia were connected via video conference for the third session.

Program

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

f2e34dd1a320d063

Opening Ceremony

Session 1

Session 2

Session 3

Session 3 (Korean Interpretation)

Video Script

East Asia Institute's Trade, Technology, and Transformation Center and MBN are jointly hosting the first Diplomacy Strategy Symposium. We will now begin the opening ceremony. Considering the COVID-19 situation, we kindly ask attendees to wear masks at all times during the event. First, we will watch a video prepared for the symposium. The intensifying US-China strategic competition is escalating from competition to conflict and confrontation, with the global order in flux.

Countries around the world, including South Korea, are being forced to make a choice. The US-China competition, which has lasted for decades, is intensifying pressure on neighboring countries, as both sides seek to maintain their hegemony and assert dominance. The upcoming US presidential election further amplifies uncertainty. What are our options? Where should South Korea go? Let's find the answers at the Diplomacy Strategy Symposium hosted by MBN and the East Asia Institute. Next, we will hear opening remarks from Son Yeol, Director of the East Asia Institute. Please give him a warm round of applause.

Hello, I am Son Yeol, Director of the East Asia Institute. First, I would like to thank the audience for attending today despite your busy schedules. Special thanks to our co-host, MBN Chairman and CEO Sung Jun Bang, and to the Honorable Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, who will deliver welcoming remarks and a congratulatory speech. Also, although not yet present, we have Democratic Party leader Kim Tae-nyeon and People Power Party leader Joo Ho-young. Thank you very much. We also have Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun. We share a connection as we attended the same university.

Thank you for attending despite your busy schedules. Many distinguished lawmakers are also present from the National Assembly. We have Representative Kim Suk-ki from the People Power Party, Representative Yang Hyang-ja from the Democratic Party, and Representative Cho Tae-yong from the People Power Party. Representing the East Asia Institute, we also have Professor Lee Sook-jong, a senior fellow and professor at Sungkyunkwan University. Thank you all. I believe today's symposium, titled 'US-China Strategic Competition and South Korea's Middle Power Diplomacy,' holds significant meaning for three key reasons.

First, it addresses the nature of US-China competition. In our society, discussions often revolve around the simplistic notion of choosing sides in the face of China's rise. I believe we need to move beyond this basic level of discourse. If we consider the Cold War where the US and the Soviet Union engaged in total confrontation across all domains, it is crucial to assess the current state of US-China relations. In this regard, the East Asia Institute will present various perspectives today. Looking at the US-China relationship from a broader perspective, China's GDP is projected to reach parity with that of the US around 2030, approximately ten years from now.

If this trend continues, defense spending between the US and China is expected to become equal around 2050, reaching approximately $1 trillion each. At that point, South Korea and Japan will each have economies about one-tenth the size, around $1.5 trillion. Therefore, the next ten years, and the subsequent twenty years until 2050, will be a critical period. If the US and China achieve economic parity in ten years, they will engage in a hegemonic competition across various fields.

Furthermore, ten to twenty years after that, there is a significant possibility of an arms race and military confrontation between the two countries, according to our institute's projections. This suggests that South Korea has approximately ten years remaining, that is, until the US and China fully enter into hegemonic competition. If we consider the current discussion about choosing sides, and if a third way exists, it's important to note that by 2030, when the US and China become major powers with a combined GDP of $24 trillion, even a united Korea would not reach $2.4 trillion.

With less than one-tenth the economic power, North and South Korea cannot achieve self-reliance. Therefore, our task is to seek a third way that allows us to coexist with both the US and China, and this is the crucial diplomatic agenda we must address over the next decade. Our institute believes that our choices over the next ten years are critical, and beyond that, we may have no options left. If we consider the possibility of being forcibly aligned with one side or the other, without even the choice of aligning with the US or China, then South Korea's preparations over the next decade are paramount. In this context, we will discuss our second keyword: middle power diplomacy.

Simply put, this question addresses what middle powers can do to find a third way. There are several middle powers caught between the US and China. If they can align their interests and cooperate, they may create significant room for maneuver and choice in the face of current and future US-China hegemonic competition. Therefore, serious discussions on middle power diplomacy, and the solidarity and cooperation among middle powers, are necessary today, and will be held. The panelists will include not only representatives from South Korea but also from Australia, Germany, and Indonesia, countries in similar situations. We also plan to invite Japan, which will likely become a middle power in twenty years. Thus, today's session will be an opportunity to actively explore what we can do together among these middle powers.

Third, this event marks a new collaboration between the East Asia Institute and MBN. We are living in an era of digital media. Our institute has primarily operated through written publications, but today, in partnership with MBN, we are taking a new step towards content creation and dissemination. We extend our special gratitude to MBN and Chairman Sung Jun Bang. We hope that the content created with dedication will reach a wide audience and have a meaningful impact. I will conclude my opening remarks here.

Thank you very much. Thank you for your insightful remarks. Next, we will hear welcoming remarks from MBN Chairman and CEO Sung Jun Bang. Please give him a warm round of applause. First, I would like to thank Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun, Democratic Party Floor Leader Kim Tae-nyeon, People Power Party Floor Leader Joo Ho-young, and distinguished guests for attending today despite your busy schedules. I also extend my appreciation to Director Son Yeol, Chairman Ha Young-sun, and all other staff members of the East Asia Institute for their hard work in preparing this event.

The conflict between the United States and China, which began with a trade war, has now expanded to all areas, including technology and security, and in this process, South Korea is being forced to make a choice. International relations theorist Graham Allison presented the Thucydides Trap theory, applying the competition between ancient Athens and Sparta to international relations. The theory posits that a rising power and an established power are bound to clash, and tragically, the outcome of this theory is armed conflict. The US presidential election results will be announced next week. Regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins, the US-China conflict is bound to intensify. Therefore, I believe this symposium, which seeks to explore our response strategies, is highly meaningful.

In particular, this symposium focuses on the middle power diplomacy of middle powers. The US-China conflict paradoxically highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation, and our capabilities demonstrated in COVID-19 containment can serve as a springboard for middle power diplomacy. I hope that this Diplomacy Strategy Symposium, organized by MBN, Maeil Broadcasting, and the East Asia Institute, will provide insights into the path forward for South Korea and lay the groundwork for future solutions. Thank you. Next, we will hear a congratulatory speech from Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun. Please give him a warm round of applause. Esteemed citizens, distinguished guests, good afternoon.

I sincerely congratulate MBN and the East Asia Institute on hosting the Diplomacy Strategy Symposium. The US presidential election is just a few days away. I believe it is very timely to hold a forum for discussing international diplomacy strategies with experts like yourselves at this important juncture in international affairs. I thank the organizers for preparing this symposium, MBN CEO Sung Jun Bang, and East Asia Institute Director Son Yeol. The COVID-19 crisis is reshaping the landscape of international politics. Border closures have led to a contraction in trade, and rising protectionism is intensifying geopolitical competition.

In particular, the strategic competition between the US and China over trade, security, and advanced technology is putting our diplomatic capabilities to the test. Amidst these rapidly changing circumstances, South Korea's standing in the international community has also undergone significant changes. In the face of the COVID-19 crisis, we have effectively controlled the spread of the virus through our three core principles of openness, transparency, and democracy, and our three strategies of Test, Trace, and Treat. The sacrifices and dedication of our medical professionals, and the high civic consciousness of our citizens practicing social distancing in their daily lives, are serving as a model for the world.

K-Quarantine has become a new brand and a symbol of South Korea's national prestige, and the export of K-Quarantine products is driving economic recovery in the post-COVID era. However, the COVID-19 crisis is proving to be longer than anyone anticipated. We cannot afford to rest on our laurels of success in epidemic control. Our government will leverage the success of K-Quarantine to broaden our perspective and address the various challenges of the post-COVID era. While it will not be easy, we will find a way to balance epidemic control and economic recovery, and focus on laying the groundwork for our economy to lead the world in the post-COVID era through the success of the Korean New Deal.

The world will once again turn its attention to Korea. Esteemed guests, to further strengthen our standing and foster closer cooperation with the international community, we must accurately grasp and prepare for the overarching trend of strategic competition between the US and China. This is a time that requires the formulation of diplomatic strategies based on thorough analysis and practical response measures. South Korea's three fundamental diplomatic directions are: expanding cooperative diplomacy based on principles, accumulating consistent diplomatic practices, and strategic economic diplomacy that protects our citizens and businesses and secures future competitiveness.

Within these fundamental directions, we must pursue a relationship of mutual benefit and coexistence with both the US and China. In this process, the paramount priority in all our choices must be national interest. Furthermore, we must communicate and strengthen cooperation with international organizations as well as responsible nations within the international community. We must also actively seek solidarity with partner countries that share our concerns. I look forward to the valuable insights and expertise of the many specialists attending today's Diplomacy Strategy Symposium. I urge you to pool your creative wisdom to protect our nation, secure our peace, and leap forward as a leading global nation.

Thank you. Thank you, Mr. Prime Minister. The congratulatory speech by Democratic Party Floor Leader Kim Tae-nyeon was scheduled, but due to a National Assembly plenary session, he was unable to attend. I will convey this on his behalf. Next, People Power Party Floor Leader Joo Ho-young will deliver his congratulatory remarks. Please give him a warm round of applause. It is a pleasure to be here. The congratulatory speech I have prepared is almost identical to the one prepared by Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun. I sincerely congratulate MBN and the East Asia Institute on hosting the first symposium and express my deep gratitude to everyone involved in its preparation.

Moreover, the theme of the first seminar, 'US-China Strategic Competition and South Korea's Middle Power Diplomacy,' is not only excellent but also highly timely. We maintain close relations with the United States based on the ROK-US alliance, and at the same time, we have an unavoidable and close relationship with China geographically and economically. These two countries are engaged in an endless competition that began with a trade dispute, and according to Graham Allison's Thucydides Trap, there is even a possibility of armed conflict, placing us in a precarious situation.

We must remember the Korean proverb, 'A person who walks between two fires will be burned by both.' We must consider which choice will benefit our nation's stability and development. However, our dilemma lies in the fact that these relationships are so intertwined that they cannot be easily severed. As Director Son mentioned, we may have about ten years of leeway, but I anticipate that this leeway will not last for ten years, and we will face difficulties demanding immediate choices in the near future.

In such times, it is crucial for experts in international relations and diplomacy like yourselves to gather and deliberate on South Korea's diplomatic path and direction. The government's foreign policy authorities should then use these deliberations as a basis to make decisions with the fate of the nation at stake. I hope for a very meaningful and beneficial discussion today. Many lawmakers are present from the National Assembly, and especially from our People Power Party, members of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee are here. This will greatly assist us in setting and supporting our diplomatic direction, and we will do our utmost. I hope that this first joint forum of MBN and the East Asia Institute will be evaluated as a valuable seminar that first charted the course for our nation's diplomacy. I look forward to a very beneficial and productive discussion. Congratulations. Thank you, Floor Leader. Next, Deputy Foreign Minister Choi Jong-kun will deliver a keynote address on the topic of US-China Strategic Competition. Please give him a warm round of applause. Good afternoon. Thank you to MBN CEO Sung Jun Bang and to the esteemed Chairman Ha Young-sun and Director Son Yeol of the East Asia Institute for inviting me to this meaningful symposium.

To this end, we aim to develop the ROK-US alliance, the cornerstone of our diplomacy and security, into a future-oriented partnership based on mutual support. Simultaneously, we seek to foster a more substantial and mature strategic cooperative partnership with China. We will also activate strategic dialogues and multi-layered consultations with neighboring countries, including Japan. Second, we will pursue consistent diplomacy by making decisions on major diplomatic issues in accordance with our national interests and principles. This will reduce the scope for our decisions to be interpreted politically in the international community and expand our diplomatic space.

As Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun and Floor Leader Joo Ho-young mentioned earlier, I am very pleased as an academic to have this opportunity to engage in a timely discussion with various domestic private sector experts. I have temporarily left academia to work in diplomacy and security for the past three years. This is my first time speaking in public at a seminar like this, so I am a little nervous. As someone involved in formulating and implementing foreign policy and security policy, I have personally experienced over the past three years that the insights of intellectuals who seek to understand and explain the nature of international politics are an essential foundation for formulating good policies.

Especially in the era of COVID-19, strategic symposiums like this one will provide even more valuable opportunities for reflection. As the Prime Minister mentioned, the international community's response to COVID-19 is the focus of global attention. In particular, how great power politics unfolds alongside the COVID-19 era will have significant implications for us. The pandemic, COVID-19, has rapidly changed many aspects of our society and our daily lives. In the field of diplomacy and security, it is also bringing about fundamental changes to the existing grammar of diplomacy and security.

As evident in the recent response to COVID-19, we must recognize the importance of international cooperation and synergy in addressing global issues. There are many predictions about the future circulating within the intellectual community. I do not believe we can predict the future with certainty. However, one thing is certain: we will continue to live in an era of uncertainty for the foreseeable future. Some have likened our current diplomatic situation to being caught in a crossfire, referring to the realities of recent international politics.

This implies that South Korea is facing pressure from various great powers, and such observations are meaningful and plausible. However, I do not believe we need to restrict our own options. Despite the harsh international environment created by COVID-19 and geopolitical conflicts, our diplomacy is steadily advancing with the goal of maximizing national interest, pursuing the following three directions. First, we are pursuing expanded cooperative diplomacy by strengthening close cooperative networks with neighboring countries and broadening our strategic space for action.

To this end, we aim to develop the ROK-US alliance, the cornerstone of our diplomacy and security, into a future-oriented partnership based on mutual support. Simultaneously, we seek to foster a more substantial and mature strategic cooperative partnership with China. We will also activate strategic dialogues and multi-layered consultations with neighboring countries, including Japan. Second, we will pursue consistent diplomacy by making decisions on major diplomatic issues in accordance with our national interests and principles. This will reduce the scope for our decisions to be interpreted politically in the international community and expand our diplomatic space.

Third, we will actively promote strategic economic diplomacy to support our businesses and secure future national competitiveness. We will work closely with business leaders and relevant ministries to ensure that the interdependence between nations does not manifest as a vulnerability for our economy. We will also respond firmly to any discriminatory or unfair treatment of our businesses. It is crucial to accurately diagnose the reality of our situation amidst the changes in the international order brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on this, we must engage in a sober and honest discussion about the path forward for our diplomacy.

And I believe that path must be solely focused on national interest and our citizens. That is why I am even more pleased that such a meaningful event has been organized today. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will strive to meet the heightened international interest in South Korea and the public's expectations for our diplomacy. I ask for your special attention and support. Thank you. Thank you. Mr. Prime Minister. The congratulatory speech by Democratic Party Floor Leader Kim Tae-nyeon was scheduled, but due to a National Assembly plenary session, he was unable to attend. I will convey this on his behalf. Next, People Power Party Floor Leader Joo Ho-young will deliver his congratulatory remarks. Please give him a warm round of applause. It is a pleasure to be here. The congratulatory speech I have prepared is almost identical to the one prepared by Prime Minister Chung Sye-kyun. I sincerely congratulate MBN and the East Asia Institute on hosting the first symposium and express my deep gratitude to everyone involved in its preparation.

Also, considering the COVID situation, the commemorative photo session will be conducted with participants wearing masks. Thank you. We will now proceed to lunch. Those outside the venue, please return and be seated. We will now begin lunch. Before lunch, we will have a brief session.

To grace this occasion, we have with us Yang Hyang-ja, Supreme Council Member of the Democratic Party. She will offer words of encouragement with a toast. Please welcome her with a big round of applause. It is truly an honor to be given this opportunity for a toast. Today, MBN and the East Asia Institute are jointly hosting this event. It seems you are holding an important event at a crucial time. As someone who has been in the field of semiconductor technology for the past 30 years, and given that Chairman Lim Hyung-kyu will speak about the US-China strategy shortly, I believe that diplomacy is not just about technology, but also about the technology itself.

Last year, when Japan launched an economic aggression using evan dert, we were able to establish a dignified diplomatic stance precisely because we held the hegemony in memory semiconductors. At that time, although no one may have known, I was the one who reported on its influence. Yes, there was a small figure behind the statement, 'You can go with confidence; we will not lose again.' And regarding the question of where our alignment should be between the US and China, as the Chairman mentioned, is it not a strategic alliance with the US and a cooperative competitive relationship with China?

Therefore, yes, yes, that is the direction we are heading, and in the future, the only way to establish Korea as a global leader is through technological hegemony. That is my belief, and I hope you will remember that technological hegemony is diplomacy. Are you ready? You mentioned that I am the first Yang Hyang-ja from Gwangju of the Democratic Party. Since we are discussing the Ministry of Economy and Finance, if MBN needs anything, I will assist with the budget at any time. Now, let's reiterate technological hegemony. Please respond loudly to 'diplomacy without looking.'

You should not do it without looking; you must do it while looking. Technological hegemony is appreciated. Thank you. Following the committee member, Kim Seok-ki, an Assembly Member of the People Power Party and the secretary of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, has joined us. We will now hear his words of encouragement. Please welcome him with a big round of applause. Yes, I am Kim Seok-ki, a Member of the National Assembly from Gyeongju, serving as the secretary of the Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee and the president of the Korea-Japan Parliamentary League. I express my sincere gratitude to MBN CEO Chang Young-yang and East Asia Institute Director Son Hyuk-hwan for hosting such a wonderful symposium today.

I believe the success or failure of diplomacy significantly influences a nation's future prospects. Therefore, the importance of successful diplomatic strategy and policy cannot be overstated. In the midst of truly challenging international circumstances, this symposium, which discusses Korea's future direction and strategy, is indeed meaningful and important. However, it appears the Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs is currently absent. Our diplomatic authorities must carefully consider the discussions held today and reflect them in actual foreign policy.

In the National Assembly's Foreign Affairs and Unification Committee, our opposition party members, including the honorable member participating today, possess considerable expertise in this field. However, it seems the government is not diligently listening to our criticisms and suggestions regarding its foreign policy. Therefore, our diplomacy must be for the national interest, and despite the difficulties, it must become a dignified and principled diplomacy for Korea. In that spirit, I propose a toast. I hope for a Korea that stands even taller in the world through its diplomacy. When I say 'Korea,' please respond with 'to the world,' and when I say 'to the world,' please respond with 'Korea.'

Korea is to the world. Thank you. Thank you. Please enjoy your lunch comfortably. After lunch, the main sessions will begin at 1:00 PM. Thank you.