[EAI Online Seminar] COVID-19 and the New World Order: A Conversation with Richard Haass on the New World Order

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UQRCpIKizY

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The East Asia Institute (EAI) hosted an online seminar titled "A Conversation with Richard Haass on the New World Order." In this seminar, EAI invited Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), to discuss the changing world order with Hayoun Lee, EAI Chairman (Professor Emeritus, Seoul National University).

• Date: Friday, September 11, 2020, 9:00-10:00 (KST)
• Speaker: Richard Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations
• Moderator: Hayoun Lee, Chairman of EAI; Professor Emeritus, Seoul National University

I. From Disarray to Disorder

The ills of globalization usher in an era of disorder

• Richard Haass presents the 21st century as an era of international disorder unprecedented in history. He argues that we are currently facing a historically difficult period, confronting comprehensive challenges that include traditional threats in international relations, as well as new burdens arising from globalization, such as COVID-19, climate change, and North Korea's nuclear program. The confluence of issues at both regional and international levels, exacerbated by deepening economic inequality, the limitations of existing institutions, and the diffusion of power, distinguishes this era significantly from previous ones.

The first step toward building order: US-China strategic dialogue

• The Chinese government, under President Xi Jinping, pursues repressive domestic policies and an assertive foreign policy, diverging from previous administrations. China has implemented the Hong Kong National Security Law, been implicated in various espionage activities, and failed to uphold its non-militarization pledges. It is crucial to recognize that China's unilateral actions will have consequences.
• Despite escalating US-China tensions, President Haass argues that characterizing the current international situation as a "new Cold War" is inappropriate. China in the 21st century has established extensive economic integration networks globally and maintains a passive stance on the international spread of socialism and communism, following a different path than the Soviet Union in the 20th century.
• For the world to move towards order, the United States and China must mitigate their conflict, beginning with mutual understanding of their differences. Given the sharp competition between the two nations in areas such as economics and military affairs, President Haass advocates for establishing strategic dialogue through close diplomatic channels.

The rise of international organizations' perceived irrelevance: the solution lies in individual state will

• Historically, order and disorder have coexisted in a delicate balance, contingent upon the balance of power and the degree of consensus among states. Analogous to a formula, balance of power and consensus signified a peaceful and stable state, while periods lacking balance of power or facing threats indicated conflict. This dynamic was most evident in the international order during World War I and World War II. In contrast, the current disorder of the 21st century cannot be navigated solely through balance of power and consensus; the will and determination of individual states have emerged as new variables. Even for issues where consensus exists in principle, achieving a genuine balance of power and avoiding conflict hinges on the strength of each nation's commitment to resolving global challenges.
• This autumn, on the eve of the 75th anniversary of the United Nations, the organization's role is being tested. Judging by its past performance, the UN has not played a significant role in resolving the challenges posed by great power politics or the negative consequences of globalization. In this era of confusion, creative approaches are required, including the research activities of think tanks such as the East Asia Institute (EAI) and the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). More importantly, for the world to move towards genuine order, the political resolve and will of the United States and China are paramount.
• President Haass warns that if disruptive events recur, the balance between order and disorder will inevitably shift towards disorder. A world of disorder will breed more conflict, leading to a landscape filled with failed states and the devastating consequences of climate change. The current COVID-19 pandemic further accentuates trends of globalization, such as US-China competition and global inequality. He predicts that such a world will not be dominated by China or the United States, but will be a contest with no winners. The balance between order and disorder will be broken, and existing solutions and institutions will prove insufficient to address the challenges faced. The bleakest aspect of this grim future is not that such a future is inevitable, but that there is no certainty it will be averted. However, the most concerning aspect, according to President Haass, is the insufficient effort being made to halt the current rush towards disorder.

II. The challenges left by Trump

Three and a half years of Trump: American foreign policy at a crossroads Stand

• Before evaluating the foreign policy achievements of the Trump administration over three and a half years, President Haass recalled a moment when he advised then-candidate Trump on foreign policy at Trump Tower. Haass, who had a prior acquaintance with President Trump through golf and their shared New York life before his election, expressed concern about Trump's foreign policy perspective, which was critical of free trade and viewed foreign policy solely through the lens of economic interests. Initially, there was an expectation that Trump's policies would not deviate significantly from traditional American foreign policy directions after his election. However, he has since pursued a distinct foreign policy.
• President Trump's approach to foreign policy is unprecedented compared to most US presidents who took office after World War II. Haass likens him to President Andrew Jackson of the 19th century, or reminiscent of various isolationists who served as US senators in the 20th century, and more recently, figures like Pat Buchanan or Ross Perot, who advocated for unilateralism, isolationism, and protectionism. His foreign policy tendencies differ from those of previous presidents, and it is more accurate to say that President Trump has reshaped American foreign policy rather than being reshaped by it.

What the next presidentshouldaddress: alliances and a disordered America Situation Correction

• The US presidential election, scheduled for November 3, will introduce a nationwide mail-in voting system, making ballot processing a key issue. Chairman Haass predicts that this election will be highly polarized and fiercely contested. He explained that regardless of who becomes the next president, they will inherit a 'very difficult inbox'.
• Chairman Haass believes the US could strive to restore relations with its allies in Europe and Asia and rejoin multilateral agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). If Biden is elected, restoring alliances will be a top priority for the US government. However, if President Trump is re-elected, alliances will likely remain a lower priority in US foreign policy, as they have been. In this regard, Chairman Haass argues that Trump needs to seriously reconsider the US policy toward China. The US should pursue a policy toward China in cooperation with its allies and partners, rather than unilaterally, and Biden already recognizes the value of such collaboration. Regardless of who the next president is, US-China relations will be a challenging issue to resolve.
• Meanwhile, to stabilize the chaotic domestic situation, the US must increase investment in education and infrastructure and resolve conflicts arising from racial discrimination and immigration policies. With tens of millions projected to be unemployed due to COVID-19, political divisions will deepen, and this confrontational structure will be clearly evident in the November election. The next president will not be able to afford the luxury of being solely a 'foreign policy president' and will face the task of encompassing the role of a 'domestic president'.

III. The North Korean Nuclear Issue and the Korean Peninsula

An Alternative to the North Korean Nuclear Issue: 'Something-for-Something' Alternative, ‘Something-for-Something’

• The resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue cannot be achieved in the short term. Having already attempted all manner of solutions, it is now impossible to conceive of fundamentally different approaches. Therefore, setting denuclearization as a long-term goal and pursuing a phased resolution is the view of Chairman Richard Haass. Denuclearization should not be a subject of negotiation but should be pursued in stages in the near future through the conclusion of an interim agreement, based on the principle of reciprocity, 'something-for-something.' Various alternatives should be proposed, such as easing North Korean sanctions in return for participation in the denuclearization process. Close cooperation among South Korea, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia will be required in this dialogue process. ■

■ Richard HaassPresident of the Council on Foreign Relations. He previously served as Director of Policy Planning at the U.S. Department of State and as Senior Advisor to former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Appointed Ambassador by the U.S. Senate, Haass served as the U.S. Special Envoy for the peace processes in Afghanistan and Northern Ireland. He was a Special Assistant to President George H.W. Bush and Senior Director for Near East and South Asian Affairs at the National Security Council (NSC). He received the Presidential Citizens Medal for his service during the 1991 Gulf War. His recent books includeThe World: A Brief Introduction(2020) and A World in Disarray: American Foreign Policy and the Crisis of the Old Order (2017).

■ Ha Young-sun Chairman of EAI, Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He served as a member of the Senior Advisory Council for the Inter-Korean Summit Preparation Committee and the Presidential National Security Advisory Group. He was a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University (1980-2012) and a visiting fellow at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. His recent books and edited volumes include 『The World Politics of Love: War and Peace』(2019), 『Revisiting Korean Diplomatic History: Tradition and Modernity』(2019), 『The Competition to Build the Asia-Pacific Order between the US and China』(2017), 『Ha Young-sun's International Politics Columns 1991-2011』(2012), 『Complex World Politics Theory』(2012), and 『North Korea 2032: A Co-evolutionary Strategy for Advancement』.

■ Contact and Editing: Kim Seyoung, EAI Research Fellow | Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) sykim@eai.or.kr