[EAI Online Seminar] COVID-19 and the New World Order 3. Asking About the Future of Democracy: Asia in the Wake of the COVID Crisis

YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTyYKZBAHXo

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The East Asia Institute (Director: Son Yeol) held the third seminar in the series '[COVID-19 and the New World Order],' titled 'The COVID-19 Pandemic and the Future of Democracy in Asia.' In this meeting, EAI discussed the challenges facing democracy during the pandemic and country- and region-specific interpretations of Asian democracy, based on a lecture by Professor Larry Diamond.

• Date: Thursday, July 16, 2020, 12:00–13:00 (KST)
• Speaker: Larry Diamond(Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and at the Hoover Institution and Professor, of Sociology and of Political Science at Stanford University)
• Discussants: Francisco A. Magno(Professor at De La Salle University & Director at Jesse M. Robredo Institute of Governance), Maiko Ichihara(Associate Professor in the Graduate School of Law and the School of International and Public Policy at Hitotsubashi University), U Khine Win(Executive Director of Sandhi Governance Institute)
• Moderator: Lee Sook-jong (EAI Senior Fellow; Professor of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University)

Asking About the Future of Democracy: Asia in the Wake of the COVID Crisis

The Trend of Democratic Decline Preceding the COVID-19 Pandemic

• Professor Larry Diamond points out that the trend of democratic decline has been ongoing globally even before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since 2006, various democratic indicators, including freedom, constitutionalism, the rule of law, and checks and balances, have been declining, with this trend accelerating in recent years. As if to prove this, in the 'Third Wave of Democratization' analyzed over the past 45 years, the last five years (2015-2020) have seen a significant number of countries break away from democratic systems for the first time, exhibiting a tendency of Huntington's "reverse wave of democratic breakdown." If this trend continues for a few more years, the world may reach a state of democratic regression.

• In many Asian countries, including the Philippines, India, and Bangladesh, the trend of democratic decline is manifesting as the strengthening of ruling parties' power or the weakening of opposition parties' checks. For instance, in Bangladesh, the opposition parties boycotted the 2014 elections due to election procedures that infringed upon the independence and neutrality of the Election Commission, allowing the current Prime Minister to remain in power. Sri Lanka showed signs of democratic recovery five years ago after an authoritarian regime was defeated in elections, but authoritarian politicians have regained power once again. In the Philippines, President Duterte's 'war on drugs' declared in 2016 has resulted in the weakening of the rule of law, human rights, and civil liberties.

• The current regression of democracy is not appearing in the form of military coups or declarations of martial law as in the past, but rather through the subtle erosion and consolidation of checks and balances. The powers of the executive branch, such as the president or prime minister, are subtly strengthened, making it easier to seize power. Consequently, institutions responsible for checks and balances, such as the judiciary, media, audit offices, prosecution services, and legislature, lose their independence and authority. The trend of democratic decline does not spare relatively well-established liberal democracies in Asia, such as South Korea. Indeed, South Korea has also shown signs of democratic regression similar to other countries, including recent strengthening of presidential power, zero tolerance for the opposition, weakening of checks and balances, and threats against political opponents.

• Professor Larry Diamond also points out that freedom, the core value of democracy, has rapidly declined, and the protection of freedom is taking on a rather deceptive form. Looking at India, the world's largest democracy, civil liberties, media independence, pluralism, and the openness of electoral debates are clearly weakening. Indonesia, the second-largest democracy in Asia, narrowly avoided democratic regression after the defeat of an authoritarian and populist opposition leader in the 2019 presidential election, but it still continues to exhibit trends of religious intolerance and anti-liberalism.

• Professor Larry Diamond reiterates that democratic decline was already underway before the COVID-19 crisis. He adds that it is difficult to find exemplary cases of democracy in Asia, citing Myanmar, which is undergoing transitional pains towards democracy; China, which suppresses democratic movements and concentrates power in Xi Jinping; Cambodia, where the opposition is fragmented and collapsing; and Thailand, where military-backed regimes continue to hold power.

Democracy in Asia: “Turning the Pandemic into an Opportunity or a Downward Spiral”

• The COVID-19 crisis offers two main implications for democracy in Asia. Asian democracies, already experiencing a decline, are now faced with the dilemma of either 'turning the pandemic into an opportunity (effective democratic response to the pandemic)' or 'succumbing to a downward spiral (democracies yielding to authoritarianism in the process of responding to COVID-19, following the trend of democratic decline).' As demonstrated by the cases of Taiwan and South Korea, the former argues that democratic systems are not obstacles to an effective response to COVID-19. These democratic countries have successfully controlled the virus by listening to government health experts, establishing effective communication channels, implementing mask-wearing policies with public cooperation, and rapidly isolating and tracing infected individuals. On the other hand, in the latter case, as seen in the examples of India, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, which have been struggling with democratic decline, the COVID-19 situation is being exploited by authoritarian regimes to use public fear as a tool for political control, suppress opposition parties and the media, and consolidate power, thereby infringing upon freedoms.

• Professor Francisco A. Magno characterizes the current situation in the Philippines as "creeping authoritarianism," noting that the signs of democratic decline observed in recent years have been particularly accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the COVID-19 outbreak, the Philippine government declared a state of emergency, and the ruling party's control over Congress and the President's allies' control over the Supreme Court have undermined the functioning of checks and balances. Furthermore, the Philippine Congress recently decided to shut down a major media network critical of the government, which had maintained an independent stance, and also passed an anti-terrorism law. While ostensibly enacted to protect democratic values, concerns are rising, for example, that the definition of terrorism in the anti-terrorism law is ambiguous and could be used to suppress opposition figures, and that the committee implementing the law is also under executive control.

• Associate Professor Maiko Ichihara expresses concern over the ongoing human rights abuses and weakening of the rule of law domestically, while global attention is focused on the COVID-19 crisis, citing the situation in Hong Kong as a prime example. In this regard, she adds that the U.S. Congress recently passed a bill to help Hong Kong human rights activists and ordinary citizens seeking refuge from Chinese government oppression, and argues that discussions on this issue should also take place in major Asian democracies such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Indonesia, and India.

• Professor Larry Diamond also points out that the current situation in Hong Kong is a major event in world history and that the international community is failing to respond adequately to the suppression of democracy in Hong Kong due to the COVID-19 crisis. Professor Diamond predicts that China's actions to suppress Hong Kong will not only infringe upon individual freedoms and violate international law but also lay the groundwork for further consolidation of authoritarian tendencies by President Xi Jinping. He also argues that liberal democratic countries within Asia need to introduce legislation to protect the freedoms of Hong Kong people and impose sanctions on the Chinese government to exert pressure. Regarding the issue of the Chinese government allowing access to information about foreigners supporting Hong Kong's democracy, Professor Diamond argues that all democratic countries should enact legislation that allows for criminal penalties against social media companies that provide their citizens' information to foreign governments, stating that such measures are fundamentally necessary to protect citizens' freedoms.

Lessons from the Pandemic: Must We Escape the Dilemma of Democracy vs. Authoritarianism?

• U Khine Win, Executive Director of the Sandhi Governance Institute, notes Myanmar's geographical proximity to several authoritarian states and assesses that authoritarian regimes in the region, such as Vietnam and China, have responded more successfully to COVID-19 compared to democratic countries like the United States and Italy. Based on this premise, U Khine Win explains the situation of democracy in Myanmar amidst the COVID-19 crisis using Francis Fukuyama's three criteria: state capacity, social trust, and leadership. In terms of social trust and leadership, Myanmar has demonstrated relatively noteworthy precedents, attributed to the inclusive and humanitarian response of the civilian government led by Aung San Suu Kyi to the COVID-19 outbreak. He explains that citizens in rural communities are actively cooperating in the COVID-19 response, for instance, by building quarantine facilities and assisting returnees with self-quarantine. He also adds that public participation is relatively high, with Myanmar citizens freely discussing the current situation on social media. Despite the very weak national capacity in healthcare, Myanmar is overcoming the COVID-19 crisis by demonstrating positive aspects in social trust and leadership.

• In this context, U Khine Win emphasizes that it is not possible to definitively state which system, democracy or authoritarianism, is superior in responding to COVID-19; rather, factors such as each country's circumstances, leadership, and social trust are more important. He also states that given the uncertainty of how long the COVID-19 crisis will last, the most critical issue for Myanmar in the long term is addressing the economic repercussions and impact of COVID-19. In Myanmar's case, the system where over three million citizens work abroad and send remittances home is being severely impacted by COVID-19. Furthermore, balancing economic interests with the pursuit of democratic values remains a future challenge for Myanmar, which has a high degree of dependence on China amidst this economic downturn caused by COVID-19.

• Geopolitically, Myanmar is situated between major powers like China and India. The country faces a dilemma in determining its stance amidst China's increasing influence in neighboring countries due to the COVID-19 crisis and India, the world's largest democracy but showing signs of regression. Furthermore, Myanmar's political transition and domestic conflicts, such as the Rakhine State issue, also draw attention to the role of democracy in Myanmar during the pandemic. In response, Professor Larry Diamond points out that even though Myanmar is surrounded by authoritarian regimes, including China, it must gradually reduce its economic dependence on China. He also urges the Myanmar government to strive to resolve issues related to international human rights norms concerning the Rakhine State conflict through international cooperation.

Post-COVID Challenges for Democracy in Asia: Respect for Individual Rights and Privacy, Voices of Voluntary Resistance, and the Role of Civil Society

• Professor Larry Diamond issues a warning regarding issues of individual rights and privacy that have emerged amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. He emphasizes that COVID-19 tracking apps installed on mobile phones can lead to controversies over the infringement of privacy and rights, and that these apps must be used in a manner that does not undermine democratic values, with appropriate oversight and management systems in place. He raises concerns that authoritarian regimes might use COVID-19 tracking apps as a tool to monitor opposition forces and infringe upon individual rights, adding that systems must be established to verify and ensure that tracking apps used as part of pandemic response measures are operated in compliance with the core principles of democracy.

• Professor Larry Diamond also points out that democratic countries in Asia, such as Japan and South Korea, need to speak out more forcefully about human rights violations and other threats to democracy occurring within the region. For example, they should be able to clearly identify and criticize the actions China is currently taking in Hong Kong, emphasizing that this is not solely the responsibility of Western countries but also of Asian nations, and urging Asian democracies to take a more active role and raise their voices against the trend of democratic decline.

• Finally, Professor Larry Diamond highlights the importance of civil society as the last bastion for protecting the freedoms of individuals and, more broadly, citizens across Asia, in relation to the democratic regression occurring in various Asian countries. He states that when civil society rises up to uphold democratic principles, effectively functions to monitor and check the government, and when networks among civil societies across Asia are activated, it will be possible to gain international solidarity and support for democratic cooperation. ■

■ Larry Diamond_ Professor of Sociology and Political Science at Stanford University. Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. He majored in Political Organization and Behavior at Stanford University, earning Master's and Doctoral degrees in Sociology from the same university, and is considered a world-renowned scholar of democratic theory. He has served as an advisor to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the World Bank, the UN, and the U.S. Department of State. His recent edited works include "Ill Winds: Saving Democracy from Russian Rage, Chinese Ambition, and American Complacency" (2019) and "China's Influence & American Interests: Promoting Constructive Vigilance: Report of the Working Group on Chinese Influence Activities in the United States" (2019). In particular, "In Search of Democracy" (2016) is highly regarded for its examination of the challenges facing democracy, based on 30 years of research on the development of democracy in Africa and Asia.

■ Francisco A. Magno_ Director of the Jesse M. Robredo Institute of Governance. Professor of Political Science at De La Salle University. He holds Bachelor's and Master's degrees from the University of the Philippines and a Doctoral degree from the University of Hawaii. He has lectured and conducted research at Florida State University, the University of Reading, Waseda University, Hiroshima University, the University of Hawaii, and the University of the Philippines, and was recognized as a Promising Young Researcher in 2000 by the National Academy of Science and Technology. His research spans various fields, including Pacific regional and security discourse, peace studies, international discussions on public policy, and environmental history.

■ Maiko Ichihara_ Maiko Ichihara is an Associate Professor in the Graduate School of Law and the School of International and Public Policy at Hitotsubashi University, Japan. She was a Visiting Scholar at the Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. She is a Co-Representative of the Future of Democracy Project at the Japan Center for International Exchange. She holds a Master's degree from Columbia University and a Ph.D. in Political Science from George Washington University. Her research primarily focuses on international relations, democracy assistance, and Japanese foreign policy. Her recent publications include "The Role of Democracy Promotion in Japanese Foreign Policy" in Nicholas Szechenyi, ed., Asianism and Universalism: The Evolution of Norms and Power in Modern Asia (Washington DC: Center for International and Strategic Studies, 2019).

■ U Khine Win_ Executive Director of the Sandhi Governance Institute. He holds a Master's degree from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy and is engaged in research and social activism to enhance transparency and accountability in the public sector and to foster democratic civil society governance in Myanmar.

■ Lee Sook-JongSenior Fellow and Director, East Asia Institute (EAI); Professor, Sungkyunkwan University. Dr. Lee received her Ph.D. in Sociology from Harvard University. She has served as a Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute, a Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Visiting Lecturer at Johns Hopkins University, President of the Association for the Study of Japanese-Korean Relations, a member of the Foreign Ministry’s Policy Advisory Committee, and Director of EAI. Her recent publications include Transforming Global Governance with Middle Power Diplomacy: South Korea’s Role in the 21st Century (editor), Public Diplomacy and Soft Power in East Asia (co-editor), The Second Act of Globalization: Korean-Style Globalization and New Designs (co-editor), and Conditions for Presidential Success in 2017 (co-editor).

■ Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun, EAI Research Fellow | Inquiries: +82-2-2277-1683 (ext. 204) jhjun@eai.or.kr

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