[EAI Heard Commentary] North Korea's "Head-On Breakthrough" Amidst the COVID-19 Crisis: A Crisis or an Opportunity?

Editor's Note

The East Asia Institute (Director Yeol Son) is producing the "EAI Heard Commentary" content to allow easier and more convenient access to expert analyses on major domestic and international issues. As the third installment, we present the commentary by Professor Won Gon Park of Handong Global University, who analyzed North Korea's foreign policy amidst the COVID-19 crisis. While the number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 continues to increase exponentially, there is a country with zero official confirmed cases: North Korea. Although the authorities deny it, the prevailing view is that the virus has already infiltrated, as evidenced by numerous signs. North Korea declared a "head-on breakthrough" against internal and external difficulties, but recently, by lowering the level of provocations and revealing its willingness to improve inter-Korean relations through personal correspondence diplomacy, it has hinted at a possible change in its "head-on breakthrough" line. However, the author points out that North Korea may intend to weaken sanctions against it through rifts that could arise between South Korea and the United States due to inter-Korean exchange, arguing that it will not deviate from the "head-on breakthrough" line. While the author believes humanitarian aid is necessary to help North Korea navigate the COVID-19 crisis, he also argues that special caution must be exercised to ensure that such assistance is not used for a "head-on breakthrough" that neutralizes sanctions aimed at denuclearization.

EAI Heard Commentary Script

Hello. The East Asia Institute is presenting "EAI Heard Commentary" to provide expert analyses of complex issues in a more accessible and convenient format. The third topic of "EAI Heard Commentary" is North Korea amidst the COVID-19 crisis.

While the number of confirmed cases and deaths from COVID-19 continues to increase exponentially, there is a country with zero official confirmed cases: North Korea. Although the authorities deny it, the prevailing view is that the virus has already infiltrated North Korea. North Korea declared a "head-on breakthrough" against internal and external difficulties in December, emphasizing "self-reliance." However, considering the dire domestic conditions, it is a fact that it will be difficult for North Korea to overcome the COVID-19 crisis without external assistance if the virus spreads. How will North Korea overcome the COVID-19 situation? The East Asia Institute aims to explore North Korea's future foreign policy through the commentary of Professor Won Gon Park of Handong Global University, who analyzed North Korea's conflict between self-reliance and compromise amidst the COVID-19 crisis. Now, let's begin!

Although the exact internal situation in North Korea is unknown, it is not difficult to estimate the immense damage North Korea would suffer if the virus spreads nationwide. It is evident that North Korea is currently facing severe economic difficulties. Chairman Kim Jong Un had raised expectations by promising never to let the people starve, but he has long been in a difficult position, failing to resolve economic issues due to prolonged UN Security Council sanctions and stalled North Korea-U.S. talks. The pattern of resorting to stereotypical North Korean slogans such as "self-reliance," "self-determination," and "head-on breakthrough" in times of difficulty is repeating itself once again. If a situation beyond control due to the virus were to occur on top of these adverse conditions, the North Korean regime would inevitably become precarious.

North Korea has hinted at a possible change in its existing "head-on breakthrough" line due to concerns about the spread of the virus. First, the level of North Korea's provocations has decreased since the COVID-19 outbreak. Despite concerns about the development of new strategic weapons, recent provocations have been at the level of short-range ballistic missile tests last year, and even after the provocations, North Korea showed a stance of not provoking South Korea and the United States, stating they were merely "routine military exercises." Signs of a policy shift in North Korea are also evident in the personal letter Chairman Kim Jong Un sent to President Moon Jae-in. The letter, sent the day after First Vice Department Director Kim Yo Jong's harsh criticism of the Blue House, was written very politely, expressing concern for President Moon Jae-in's health, and hinted at future improvements in inter-Korean relations. This is a remarkable change, considering that after the Hanoi summit's failure, North Korea told South Korea, "Stop acting as an overbearing mediator and facilitator," urging it to prioritize national interests.

While the reason for sending contradictory messages to South Korea within a single day remains ambiguous, one interpretation is that North Korea's fluctuating statements toward South Korea reflect its desperation to overcome the current predicament. With its borders sealed due to the COVID-19 situation, North Korea, unable to expect support from China for the time being, desperately needs assistance from South Korea. As always, North Korea will likely feign reluctance in accepting South Korean aid.

However, there is a point that should not be overlooked here. That is, North Korea will not deviate from the "head-on breakthrough" line declared last December, even if it resumes exchanges with South Korea. North Korea may, in fact, be seeking to restart inter-Korean dialogue and exchanges to break through sanctions and actively implement its "head-on breakthrough" strategy. Although sanctions against North Korea have been somewhat eased due to the COVID-19 situation, what North Korea expects from South Korea has the potential to go beyond the scope of eased sanctions. For example, tourism is not explicitly prohibited by sanctions against North Korea. However, there is a high possibility of it conflicting with sanctions in its actual implementation. The United States has emphasized that tourism issues must be handled through South Korea-U.S. working-level consultations, and has made it clear that there will be no improvement in inter-Korean relations separate from the North Korean nuclear issue. If inter-Korean dialogue proceeds without the United States, rifts between South Korea and the United States are inevitable. Perhaps North Korea anticipates such rifts and may accept aid from South Korea. In other words, it could use the rifts between South Korea and the United States as an opportunity for its "head-on breakthrough" to weaken sanctions against North Korea.

Although the North Korean authorities strongly deny it, the situation within North Korea concerning the coronavirus is widely accepted as serious. Given the urgent need for assistance, humanitarian aid seems necessary to help North Korea navigate the COVID-19 crisis. However, special caution must be exercised to ensure that such assistance is not used for a "head-on breakthrough" that neutralizes sanctions aimed at denuclearization. Attention is focused on whether North Korea's "head-on breakthrough" will succumb to COVID-19 or become a means for turning crisis into opportunity. This has been EAI Heard Commentary, with Yoon Jun-il of the East Asia Institute. ■

Professor Park Won-gon's original commentary can be found on the "Commentary Download" or "Commentary Download" or the Global North Korea website. [Link]

■ Author: Park Won Gon_ Professor of International Relations, Department of International Studies and Languages, Handong Global University. Advisory member for the Ministry of National Defense and the Ministry of Unification. Holds a Ph.D. in Diplomacy from Seoul National University. His main research areas include Northeast Asian international relations, security studies, diplomatic history, North Korean studies, and the ROK-U.S. alliance. Major works include "Evaluation of the Obama Administration's Foreign and Security Strategy and Prospects for the New Administration's Foreign Policy" (2016) (co-authored), "A Study on the Theory of Just War: A Comparison with Pacifism and Realism" (2016), "Changes in and Prospects for the East Asian Security Order: A South Korean Perspective" (2016), "A Theoretical Review and Critical Analysis of South Korea’s Proactive Deterrence Strategy" (2015), and "Future Vision of the ROK-U.S. Alliance: Focusing on Command Structure Reform" (2014).

■ Responsible Person and Editor: Yoon Jun-il, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 203) I junilyoon@eai.or.kr

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