[Smart Q&A: Chun, Park, Lee] Changing East Asian Security Environment and Korea's Diplomatic Strategy

Chun Jae-sung is a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University and concurrently serves as the Director of the Center for Asian Security Studies at the East Asia Institute.

Park Young-joon received his Ph.D. in International Politics from the University of Tokyo and is currently a professor at the Graduate School of National Security at the National Defense University.

Lee Dong-ryul received his Ph.D. in Political Science from the School of International Studies at Peking University, China, and is currently a professor in the Department of Chinese Studies at Dongduk Women's University and serves as the Chairman of the EAI China Research Panel.

Overview

Around the time of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to the United States in late April and Russia's Victory Day celebrations in May, domestic media raised concerns about the shrinking strategic space for Korea, suggesting the advent of a new era of intimacy between the US-Japan alliance and the China-Russia partnership. Meanwhile, at the Bandung Conference held on April 22, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Abe had a conversation for about 30 minutes and expressed their willingness to improve bilateral relations, indicating that these concerns should not be viewed solely through the lens of US-Japan versus China. This dialogue aims to explore the implications of the intense diplomatic maneuvering among major powers surrounding the Korean Peninsula for the changing East Asian security environment and, based on this, to identify desirable security and diplomatic strategies for Korea. The East Asia Institute has organized this <Smart Q&A> dialogue. Please note that this dialogue was conducted on May 16, prior to the announcement of the postponement of the ROK-US summit meeting.

Assessment and Outlook of the East Asian Security Environment

"The East Asian security order will be determined by the structure and nature of US-China confrontation and cooperation, China-Japan relations, and the US-Japan alliance versus China-Russia military cooperation."

"While both the United States and China currently acknowledge the need for cooperation, from an international political science perspective, it is inevitable to anticipate a dynamic of confrontation and competition between these two major powers."

Korea's Northeast Asian Security and Diplomatic Strategy in the Wake of the Strengthened US-Japan Alliance

"From a security perspective, it is necessary to make efforts to restore cooperative relations with Japan, predicated on policy coordination among South Korea, the United States, and Japan."

"The division of the Korean Peninsula serves as a conduit through which the interests and competition of major powers can be easily projected, thus requiring more careful management and response."

"As Korea's national objective is the unification of the Korean Peninsula, it is essential to maintain a strategic cooperative relationship with China."

Desirable ROK-US Summit Diplomacy

"Regarding historical issues with Japan, our government has already fully conveyed its concerns to the United States, so repeating them would be counterproductive... In relation to North Korea's nuclear program, efforts should continue to achieve an agreement reaffirming the principle of denuclearization between South Korea and the United States."

"For the ROK-US summit, proactive diplomacy is crucial to convey a clear message about the vision of the ROK-US alliance and Korea's East Asian strategy... The concepts of trust diplomacy, the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative, and the Eurasian Initiative, pursued by the current administration, also need to be adjusted and concretized in line with evolving international relations."

"In relations with Japan as well, rather than competing for influence in Washington, it is necessary for South Korea, the United States, and Japan to cooperate in resolving East Asian issues from a medium- to long-term perspective."

Conclusion

Changing East Asian Security Environment and Korea's Diplomatic Strategy

Chun Jae-sung: Recently, diplomatic activities among major powers surrounding the Korean Peninsula have been very active. This includes Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to the US in April and the ROK-US summit, Chinese President Xi Jinping's attendance at Russia's Victory Day celebrations in May and the ROK-China summit, and the China-Japan summit at the Bandung Conference prior to that. The leaders of the four major powers surrounding the Korean Peninsula appear to be rapidly developing their mutual relationships. In this context, we aim to examine Korea's position in Northeast Asia and the policy direction it should establish in preparation for the upcoming ROK-US summit. We will begin with a comprehensive assessment of the East Asian security situation as the first topic.

Assessment and Outlook of the East Asian Security Environment

"The East Asian security order will be determined by the structure and nature of US-China confrontation and cooperation, China-Japan relations, and the US-Japan alliance versus China-Russia military cooperation."

"While both the United States and China currently acknowledge the need for cooperation, from an international political science perspective, it is inevitable to anticipate a dynamic of confrontation and competition between these two major powers."

Park Young-joon: The East Asian security order will be determined by the structure and nature of US-China confrontation and cooperation, China-Japan relations, and the US-Japan alliance versus China-Russia military cooperation. Following the China-Japan summit held during the APEC meeting last November, the situation has been relatively stable. In broad terms, the US-Japan alliance has been further strengthened following Prime Minister Abe's visit to the US, and China-Russia relations are also showing signs of strengthening, as evidenced by the joint naval exercises in the Mediterranean and President Xi Jinping's attendance at the Moscow Victory Day celebrations.

However, in detail, the current situation is not one of unilateral competition or cooperation between the two blocs, but rather a coexistence of competition and cooperation. The competitive aspects between the two powers are evident in issues such as arms buildups and the inclusion of the Senkaku Islands issue in the US-Japan alliance. Yet, the continuation of US-China military-security dialogues, China's participation in the Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC) hosted by the United States, and the adoption of a code for preventing maritime collisions at the Qingdao International Fleet Review, in which the US, Japan, and China all participated, indicate an expansion of mutual cooperation. This coexistence of competition and cooperation between the US-Japan and China-Russia, or among the US, Japan, China, and Russia, suggests a shared cautious approach to managing the situation without unnecessarily escalating it to a catastrophic level.

Lee Dong-ryul: While the confrontation between the US-Japan alliance and China-Russia may appear externally as a realignment reminiscent of the Cold War, it is an oversimplification to define China-Russia and China-Japan relations solely as alliances or conflicts. It is true that President Xi Jinping's visit to Russia for the 70th anniversary of Victory Day showcased the close ties between China and Russia, aimed at countering the United States. However, this does not necessarily mean that both countries unconditionally pursue a deterioration of relations with the US. The sharp confrontation between China and Japan over historical and territorial issues also shows potential for easing, given China's efforts to find an exit strategy regarding the East China Sea territorial dispute following the last APEC meeting. Considering internal Chinese concerns that the confrontation between China and Japan only enhances the strategic position of the United States, China may actually seek to improve relations with Japan and the US.

Chun Jae-sung: US-China relations have a significant impact on East Asian security. The unipolar system centered on the United States, which has persisted since the end of the Cold War, is undergoing change. Specifically, China's rapid rise and the narrowing power gap between the two major powers foreshadow a power transition. This is the current diplomatic environment in East Asia, where the diverse interests of neighboring countries are being expressed.

While both the United States and China currently acknowledge the need for cooperation, from an international political science perspective, it is inevitable to anticipate a dynamic of confrontation and competition between these two major powers. Considering the security dilemma as a concept explaining the deepening competition based on uncertainty, the current US-China relationship can be seen as a prelude to the bilateral confrontation that will unfold in the future. However, US-China competition today differs from the Cold War era. The competition occurring within a context of close interdependence between the two countries is multi-layered, highly diverse, and fragmented. While the US and China are engaged in traditional, fierce military competition, they are also vying to reflect their respective interests in international norms and institutions across new issues such as the economy, finance, and the environment. Furthermore, South Korea, Russia, and Japan are also participating in this diplomatic contest. A full-scale confrontation between the US and China is unlikely to occur before 2020. Therefore, the current situation can be characterized as one of interdependence with an avoidance of confrontation.

Korea's Northeast Asian Security and Diplomatic Strategy in the Wake of the Strengthened US-Japan Alliance

"From a security perspective, it is necessary to make efforts to restore cooperative relations with Japan, predicated on policy coordination among South Korea, the United States, and Japan."

"The division of the Korean Peninsula serves as a conduit through which the interests and competition of major powers can be easily projected, thus requiring more careful management and response."

"As Korea's national objective is the unification of the Korean Peninsula, it is essential to maintain a strategic cooperative relationship with China."

Chun Jae-sung: Amidst the complex situation in South Korea-Japan relations, the revision of the US-Japan defense cooperation guidelines and various strategies pursued by Prime Minister Abe for Japan's normalization as a 'normal country' are of great interest in South Korea. In the context of the strengthening US-Japan alliance, how should the future development of the ROK-US alliance be harmonized?

Park Young-joon: The US-Japan summit and the revision of the defense cooperation guidelines hold significant meaning in many respects. The defense cooperation guidelines are documents that set the joint strategic direction for the US and Japan. Following the first agreement in 1978, a second revision occurred in 1997. The first guidelines, issued during the Cold War in 1978, primarily addressed the response of the US-Japan alliance to a Soviet attack on Japan. The second guidelines in 1997 focused on the response of the US-Japan alliance to contingencies on the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, the recently revised guidelines, at Japan's request, are centered on countering the rise of China within the framework of the US-Japan alliance.

Given that China is perceived not only as a target for containment but also as a partner for cooperation by the United States, the third guidelines should be understood as a result of the convergence of the US's dual approach of containment and engagement towards China and Japan's emphasis on containment. However, the containment of China within the framework of the US-Japan alliance is not explicitly stated in the revised defense cooperation guidelines. In the joint statement of the ROK-US-Japan 2+2 Foreign and Defense Ministerial Meeting, the mention that the Senkaku Islands are included within the scope of the US-Japan alliance was a way to express the stance of containment towards China. Considering both aspects together, Japan has achieved success in strengthening containment of China within the US-Japan alliance framework, while also reflecting the US's understanding by not directly stipulating related matters in the 2015 guidelines.

Given that China has not reacted strongly to the revision of the US-Japan defense cooperation guidelines, South Korea can be seen as having secured a broader strategic space. In this regard, one task is to establish a posture that can deter North Korea's nuclear development through policy coordination among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, or through cooperation between South Korea and China. Furthermore, in a situation where US-Japan relations are strengthening, it is necessary to make efforts to restore cooperative relations with Japan to some extent, predicated on policy coordination among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, at least from a security perspective.

Lee Dong-ryul: The primary reason for the close China-Russia relationship is to counter the United States. Additionally, Russia's cooperation is important for China's new Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, given that both countries are wary of the possibility of further deteriorating relations with the US due to their close ties, it is difficult to view their relationship as solely one of close alignment. While China-Japan relations exhibit a strong confrontational stance on the surface due to historical issues, cooperation is easing at the working level. Even on territorial issues, which are considered core interests, China is seeking an exit strategy, making it unlikely that China views historical disputes at the discursive level as a decisive factor in diplomacy. Therefore, China-Japan relations have the potential for rapid improvement compared to their outwardly visible conflicts or competition, which could pose a significant challenge to Korean diplomacy.

The primary reason for the close China-Russia relationship is to counter the United States. Additionally, Russia's cooperation is important for China's new Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, given that both countries are wary of the possibility of further deteriorating relations with the US due to their close ties, it is difficult to view their relationship as solely one of close alignment. While China-Japan relations exhibit a strong confrontational stance on the surface due to historical issues, cooperation is easing at the working level. Even on territorial issues, which are considered core interests, China is seeking an exit strategy, making it unlikely that China views historical disputes at the discursive level as a decisive factor in diplomacy. Therefore, China-Japan relations have the potential for rapid improvement compared to their outwardly visible conflicts or competition, which could pose a significant challenge to Korean diplomacy.

Chun Jae-sung: The US's pivot to Asia strategy, introduced after the 2008 global economic crisis, aims to restore its global leadership. This strategy seeks to regain control and management capabilities over the global economy and China's rise, thereby laying the groundwork for a resurgence of its hegemony. To this end, it is strengthening relationships with allies and strategic partnerships with non-allied nations, while developing mini-lateral or multi-lateral linkages. In this context, the US particularly needs strong allies that can provide substantial economic and military assistance, and Japan fits this role. Japan's strategy of becoming a normal country, involving a certain level of military contribution, aligns well with the US's pivot strategy amidst the power transition in East Asia. The strengthening of the US-Japan alliance will inevitably lead to an increased military role for Japan, and particular attention should be paid to US-Japan cooperation in the South China Sea, an area of sharp conflict between the US and China.

The key issue is the extent to which South Korea's strategy towards China can align with the strategies pursued by the US and Japan towards China. As the unification of the Korean Peninsula is Korea's national objective, it must maintain a strategic cooperative relationship with China. Therefore, excessive confrontation between the US-Japan alliance and China is undesirable. Korea should pursue strategic cooperation with China while ensuring that the relationships among the US, Japan, and China do not escalate into confrontation but are maintained in a state of adjustment. Of course, diplomatic efforts to fully persuade the US and Japan of Korea's position are essential.

Desirable ROK-US Summit Diplomacy

"Regarding historical issues with Japan, our government has already fully conveyed its concerns to the United States, so repeating them would be counterproductive... In relation to North Korea's nuclear program, efforts should continue to achieve an agreement reaffirming the principle of denuclearization between South Korea and the United States."

"For the ROK-US summit, proactive diplomacy is crucial to convey a clear message about the vision of the ROK-US alliance and Korea's East Asian strategy... The concepts of trust diplomacy, the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative, and the Eurasian Initiative, pursued by the current administration, also need to be adjusted and concretized in line with evolving international relations."

"In relations with Japan as well, rather than competing for influence in Washington, it is necessary for South Korea, the United States, and Japan to cooperate in resolving East Asian issues from a medium- to long-term perspective."

Chun Jae-sung: Considering Prime Minister Abe's visit to the US and President Xi Jinping's planned visit to the US in September, it feels as though South Korea's diplomacy towards the US is unfolding within a competitive landscape. Let us discuss the diplomatic activities and achievements that President Park Geun-hye should aim for in her upcoming diplomacy with the United States.

Park Young-joon: Both President Park Geun-hye and President Obama are currently in the middle of their terms, making this visit to the US a mid-term review of their foreign policies and a good opportunity to strengthen ROK-US cooperation. In particular, given that the US has agreed on its pivot to Asia strategy with Japan, South Korea needs to clearly express its intention to expand and strengthen its traditional cooperative relationship with the US regarding China's rise and East Asian security. However, regarding historical issues with Japan, our government has already fully conveyed its concerns to the United States, so repeating them would be counterproductive. In relation to North Korea's nuclear program, efforts should continue to achieve an agreement reaffirming the principle of denuclearization between South Korea and the United States.

Finally, South Korea must address Washington's curiosity or doubts about South Korea's position and role within the US-China relationship. While there may be differences in certain aspects, such as South Korea's participation in the AIIB, it is necessary to make efforts to emphasize that the ROK and the US share the same position in the broader framework. Furthermore, it is important to recognize that China's rise can be a factor contributing to peace rather than instability in the East Asian region, and to emphasize that consultations among South Korea, the US, or the US-Japan-Korea trilateral are more crucial than ever for this purpose.

Mobility Rate: With both Chinese and Japanese leaders visiting the United States, a South Korea-U.S. summit presents a difficult challenge. Interest in the summit is also growing. Especially as it is a year with the special significance of the 70th anniversary of liberation, the summit must serve as an opportunity for both South Korea and the U.S. to develop a new future-oriented relationship.

Considering the current Northeast Asian geopolitical landscape, aspects of conflict within the framework of cooperation and conflict among major powers are being projected onto the Korean Peninsula through so-called outsourced diplomacy. South Korea must contemplate how to minimize this. It is a crucial time for South Korea's status and role as a middle power. In other words, rather than solely focusing on the bilateral summit between South Korea and the U.S., it is necessary to develop it into a summit that simultaneously considers the various actors within Northeast Asia whose interests are intertwined. There is a need to present a more concrete and sophisticated vision for unification and the Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative, clearly demonstrating South Korea's vision for its status and role to gain consensus.

Chun Jae-sung: This South Korea-U.S. summit must prioritize outward-looking diplomacy that conveys accurate messages about the vision for the South Korea-U.S. alliance and South Korea's East Asia strategy. The most significant characteristic of U.S.-China relations today is uncertainty about the future. Amidst the great power politics between the U.S. and China, it is crucial for South Korea to maximize its national interests while ensuring peace and stability in East Asia to the greatest extent possible. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the U.S.-China relationship where cooperation and competition coexist and to meticulously define South Korea's role in East Asia. Concepts such as the trust diplomacy, Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative, and Eurasian Initiative pursued by the current administration also need to be adjusted and concretized in line with changing international relations.

Furthermore, this South Korea-U.S. summit should serve as an opportunity to review what South Korea's East Asia strategy is as the Park Geun-hye administration enters its mid-term. Currently, the U.S. is also unable to present a compelling vision for the future of East Asia. The U.S.-China summit is attracting attention precisely because of the anticipation for a new vision. Here, if a middle power like South Korea takes the initiative, it could yield results beyond expectations. If so, naturally, concepts and discourse must be prepared and organized in advance of the summit.

The U.S. likely has expectations regarding South Korea's perspective on East Asia and its future diplomatic direction. It is important to solidify the partnership between South Korea and the U.S. and share understanding on various East Asian issues, including China and the Korean Peninsula. Moreover, in relations with Japan, rather than competing for Washington's favor, it is necessary for South Korea, the U.S., and Japan to cooperate in resolving East Asian issues from a mid-to-long-term perspective.■

The East Asia Institute (EAI) conducts "Smart Q&A," a video interview series with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through Q&A sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript is a compilation by Researcher Yoo Jae-seung of the original interview text summarized by EAI Foreign Policy and Security Team interns Kim Seung-wan and Ban Ju-young. The opinions expressed herein are those of the interviewee and do not represent the official position of the East Asia Institute.