[Smart Q&A: Andrew Nathan] Conflict and Cooperation Amidst Mutual Distrust: The Current State of US-China Relations and the Korean Peninsula

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/150413_sqa.flv

Andrew Nathan is a Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, where he also serves as Chair of the University Seminar on Human Rights and Chair of the University Appeals Board. He has long studied Chinese foreign policy and the legitimacy of Asian political systems. His books and co-authored works includePeking Politics, 1918-1923; Chinese Democracy; Popular Culture in Late Imperial China, Human Rights in Contemporary China, Crisis; The Great Wall and the Empty Fortress: China's Search for Security. Professor Nathan has also authored numerous articles for publications such as World Politics, The China Quarterly, The Asian Wall Street Journal, and the International Herald Tribune.

Overview

What is the current state of US-China relations? Andrew Nathan, Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, points out that while the United States and China exhibit cooperation in various areas, deep distrust still persists. He assesses the theory of power transition between the US and China, which has been a subject of discussion since China's rise, as premature, given that the power gap between the two nations is widening at a slower pace than anticipated and a fundamental shift in the security balance is unlikely in the near future. Furthermore, Professor Nathan suggests that the US's pivot to Asia was primarily intended to remind China and other regional powers that Asia remains a region of critical strategic interest to the United States, and its symbolic significance outweighed any substantial changes it brought about. He notes that China's ability to emerge as a global economic power while maintaining its authoritarian political system offers some lessons for regimes like North Korea regarding a Chinese model of modernization. However, he highlights a key difference: China's rise was facilitated by the support and welcome of the international community, including the United States, a condition not met by North Korea. Professor Nathan identifies internal instability in regions such as Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, as well as the inherent openness within China's intellectual circles and civil society, as the most significant challenges facing China today, compelling its foreign policy to be defensive.

Regarding the situation on the Korean Peninsula, Professor Nathan advises South Korea to maintain a balance between economic cooperation with China and the military alliance with the US, while also asserting its voice as an influential middle power. He argues that the ROK-US military alliance needs continuous strengthening to counter North Korea's security threats and that its maintenance even after unification would align with South Korea's strategic interests. On the issue of deploying the US THAAD missile defense system, Professor Nathan recommends an objective assessment of its utility from a security perspective, coupled with a thorough consideration of the message the South Korean government intends to convey to the US and China through this decision. He warns that excessive deference to either the US or China on issues like THAAD could dangerously undermine South Korea's sovereignty, emphasizing the need for foreign policy messaging based on independent decision-making.

"US-China relations are a dual relationship where cooperation and conflict coexist, overlaid with deep mutual distrust. China believes all US actions are aimed at maintaining or expanding American influence, while the US perceives all Chinese actions as part of a long-term strategy to undermine US interests."

Current State of US-China Relations

"While the relationship cannot be viewed solely through the lens of cooperation or conflict, the wall of mutual distrust remains high."

"Power transition between the US and China is premature; no signs of fundamental change in the security order."

• The US and China have not only deepened their economic ties but also maintained cooperative relations through increased people-to-people exchanges, such as student programs. They have worked to minimize conflict on regional issues like Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, as well as global issues such as the Iran nuclear negotiations, and have even spoken with a unified voice on environmental issues like climate change response.

• China perceives the US-led alliance system surrounding it as a security threat, while the US seeks to maintain its influence by closely developing relationships not only with allies like South Korea, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines but also with countries such as Vietnam, Myanmar, and India.

• The theory of power transition, suggesting China will surpass the US, is premature. The US is laying the groundwork for a new leap forward by improving its domestic economic conditions, while China must adapt to a 'new normal' of slowing growth. The current security balance, where US military power holds an absolute advantage, is unlikely to change in the near future.

• The US pivot to Asia was largely symbolic, intended to remind regional powers, including China, that Asia remains a region of critical strategic interest to the United States. The pivot did not bring about significant changes to the Asian hegemonic order itself. The future of Asia is more likely to face crises due to factors beyond the control of US-China relations, such as China's domestic issues, nationalism within Japan, or the stability of North Korea's regime, with both the US and China making strategic calculations based on their respective situations.

China's Model of Statehood and International Relations

"An authoritarian political system responsive to public demands, a contradiction from a Western perspective but a national vision for the Chinese leadership."

"To apply the Chinese model of statehood to North Korea, international support for its leadership must precede it."

• China is a nation of unprecedented historical character, characterized by an authoritarian political system based on one-party rule coexisting with a vast middle class exceeding 300 million people. While the government does not permit freedom of the press or the independence of civil society, its creation of a state system responsive to public demands, though seemingly contradictory from a Western viewpoint, represents a national vision for the Chinese leadership.

• China's international relations tend to manifest as defensive foreign policy due to domestic issues concerning ethnic minorities and the international demands from intellectuals and civil society organizations. This is because the Chinese central government perceives international attention on regions like Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and Yanbian as a threat to its state system and reacts sensitively.

• While discussions exist about applying China's model of statehood to North Korea, prerequisites are necessary. These include institutional changes within North Korea through reform and opening up, as well as international acceptance of its leadership. However, North Korea's Kim Jong-un regime is condemned by the international community as having committed crimes against humanity, as detailed in the UN COI report. It is important to recall that when Deng Xiaoping pursued reform and opening up, he enjoyed a very positive international image, and the international community actively supported his policies. Unless North Korea improves its situation, it is unlikely to achieve development comparable to China's.

US-China Relations and the Korean Peninsula

"South Korea needs balance between the US and China, without leaning towards either side; this will remain true even after unification."

"THAAD deployment is a matter of South Korean sovereignty; clear messaging to the US and China based on objective assessment is necessary."

• As an influential middle power situated between the US and China, South Korea must maintain a balance, appropriately managing China's influence while solidifying its alliance with the US. China is a crucial economic partner for South Korea, and the US is a key security partner deterring North Korean threats. While the decision of what stance a unified Korean Peninsula will take towards the US and China is up to the unified Korean government, the current trend suggests that the existing balance is unlikely to change radically.

• Before deciding on the deployment of the US THAAD missile defense system, South Korea needs to conduct a clear assessment of the missile threat posed by North Korea. If North Korea's missile capabilities pose a substantial threat to South Korea and the THAAD system is deemed effective in countering it, then proceeding with deployment would be reasonable. Conversely, if the threat from North Korea is judged to be minimal, there would be no reason to deploy it.

• In addition to assessing North Korea's missile threat and the performance of the THAAD system, political messaging is crucial. China's public pressure on South Korea to oppose THAAD deployment can be seen as disregarding South Korea's national sovereignty and could, in fact, provide grounds for a decision contrary to such demands.

• The United States also needs to fully recognize the sensitivity of the issue and engage in sufficient prior consultation with the South Korean government to prevent unnecessary misunderstandings regarding the THAAD system... (continued)

The East Asia Institute (EAI) conducts video interviews in a Smart Q&A format with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through question-and-answer sessions with specialists in relevant fields. This manuscript was compiled by Research Fellow Yoo Jaeseung from the original interview transcript organized by Michael Parker, an intern with EAI's Foreign Affairs and Security Team. The opinions expressed herein are those of the interviewee and do not necessarily reflect the views of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.