Smart Q&A: Kurt Campbell & Chun Jae-sung - U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy and the Korean Peninsula

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/141120_sqa.flv

Kurt Campbell Dr. Campbell is the co-founder, CEO, and Chairman of The Asia Group. He also serves as Chairman of the Center for New American Security and is a board member of Standard Chartered Bank. From 2009 to 2013, he served as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. In 2014, he was awarded the Order of Diplomatic Service Merit, Gwanghwa Medal (光化章) by the Republic of Korea for his contributions to the development of the ROK-U.S. alliance.

Chun Jae-sung Professor Chun is a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University and concurrently serves as the Director of the Center for Asian Security Studies at the East Asia Institute (EAI).

Overview

Kurt Campbell, former Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, who played a pivotal role in formulating the U.S. "pivot to Asia" strategy, met with Chun Jae-sung, Director of EAI's Center for Asian Security Studies, for a discussion on North Korea and the dynamics of East Asia. Campbell first warned of the potential for miscalculations regarding the North Korean regime's inherent uncertainties, arguing that South Korea should continue to seek dialogue with North Korea while also engaging in close discussions with China and other countries. While acknowledging that the vast majority of South Koreans support the necessity of the ROK-U.S. alliance today, Campbell made it clear that the future relationship between the ROK and the U.S. after unification will ultimately be decided by the people of the Korean Peninsula. However, he emphasized that the U.S. will continue to maintain and develop its relations with East Asia even after unification, and that America's future remains intertwined with the Asia-Pacific region. He pointed out the fallacy of the idea that China's rise would inevitably lead to U.S.-China competition, forcing regional countries to choose sides, and instead assessed that it is more effective for countries to develop good relations with both the U.S. and China. From this perspective, Campbell argued that improving ROK-Japan and Sino-Japanese relations is desirable, and that the U.S. needs to play a greater role in this process. However, he asserted that the rising nationalism in Asia hinders regional cooperation, and that countries, including South Korea, must mitigate the negative effects stemming from such sentiments.

"North Korea could create a crisis situation it sought to avoid through provocations based on miscalculation, and this risk should be considered to have recently increased."

"The U.S. and China are not expecting or demanding that neighboring countries choose sides; rather, it is in the best interest of Asian countries to maintain good relations with both the U.S. and China."

North Korea's Strategic Calculations

• While the behavior of the North Korean regime is indeed inherently unpredictable, it is necessary to recognize that its series of actions, including provocations, have been based on sophisticated strategic calculations.

• The North Korean regime is aware that actions aimed at escalation, such as military provocations, are not in line with its strategic interests, given that South Korea and the U.S. could decisively crush them with overwhelming military power in the event of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula.

• However, the North Korean regime has recently shown signs of overlooking the possibility that its provocative actions could escalate into a full-scale war, raising concerns in the international community. If such miscalculations continue, the situation on the Korean Peninsula is likely to develop in a more dangerous and worrisome direction.

• Given North Korea's high dependence on China, the South Korean government must engage in continuous dialogue with China on Korean Peninsula issues. This will help alleviate China's concerns that neighboring countries, including the U.S., might take measures it fears in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula.

Regional Dynamics and the Future of Korean Unification: U.S.-China Relations and Northeast Asia

• The ROK-U.S. alliance is demonstrating stronger solidarity than ever before, and this is expected to continue even after the unification of the Korean Peninsula. However, the future relationship between a unified Korea and the U.S. is ultimately a matter to be decided by the people of the unified Korean Peninsula.

• The most influential countries in Asia are those that maintain good relations with both the U.S. and China. Neither the U.S. nor Chinese governments expect or demand that neighboring countries choose sides.

• In line with its "pivot to Asia" strategy, the U.S. will continue to focus its attention on the Asian region. This strategy enjoys broad understanding and support from various groups, including the U.S. government, Congress, and the business community. As the U.S. faces various threats and challenges globally in the 21st century, it is a time that requires wisdom to pay attention to each issue and respond effectively. Among these, the Asia-Pacific region will have the greatest impact on America's future.

• If the U.S. continues to take no action regarding the deteriorating ROK-Japan and Sino-Japanese relations, there is a risk that Northeast Asian countries, including its allies, will feel alienated from the U.S. Therefore, the U.S. needs to actively signal its desire for the improvement of not only ROK-Japan relations but also Sino-Japanese relations.

• Asian countries, including South Korea, must recognize that deepening nationalistic foreign policy perceptions will further complicate regional cooperation, and must strive to guard against and mitigate the negative effects arising from such perceptions... (Continued)

The East Asia Institute (EAI) conducts Smart Q&A, a video interview series with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through Q&A sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript is a summary and compilation by researchers Shin Boram and Yoo Jaeseung of the original interview transcript compiled by EAI Foreign Policy and Security Team interns Ho Youngjin and Mael Alan van Beek. The opinions expressed are those of the interviewees and do not represent the views of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from the Smart Q&A series.