[Smart Q&A: Ju Jae-woo] The Opening of the Xi Jinping Era and Korea's Challenges

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Professor Ju Jae-woo holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from Peking University and is currently a professor in the Department of Chinese Language and Literature at Kyung Hee University, specializing in Chinese politics and diplomacy.

Foreign Policy Stance of China's Fifth-Generation Leadership

"A balance between continuity and differentiation from the fourth-generation leadership will be achieved."

"Continuity: Diplomacy for economic development and national prosperity."

"Differentiation: Complex worldview, recognition of contradictory status, emphasis on interdependence."

The foreign policy stance of China's fifth-generation leadership will manifest as a balance between continuity and differentiation from the fourth-generation leadership. Firstly, continuity is inevitable due to the long-term goals set by the Communist Party and the Chinese government. That is, the realization of a moderately prosperous society by 2020 and the establishment of a "prosperous, strong, democratic, harmonious socialist modern country" by 2050. Therefore, the fundamental direction of China's foreign policy, which has been utilized as a tool for economic development and national prosperity since the reform and opening-up, will be maintained.

Unlike Hu Jintao, Xi Jinping launched his new administration holding both the positions of General Secretary of the Communist Party and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. Upon assuming the presidency in March next year, Xi Jinping will grasp the "power of three bodies," namely the supreme power of the Party, government, and military. This implies that Xi Jinping, unlike Hu Jintao, can pursue policies without worrying about checks or concerns from the previous leadership. Hu Jintao, after becoming General Secretary in 2002, was only able to pursue his unique foreign policy concepts such as the "peaceful development perspective" and "harmonious world" after transferring the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission from Jiang Zemin in 2004. From this perspective, the Xi Jinping administration, unlike the Hu Jintao administration, is likely to exhibit different diplomatic behavior due to the guaranteed power and autonomy to create unique foreign policy lines, concepts, and strategies from its inception.

An analysis of Xi Jinping's statements and speeches over the past two to three years offers insights into the direction of his administration's foreign policy. First, Xi Jinping holds a complex view of foreign affairs, emphasizing the parallel development of globalization and multipolarization, the coexistence of diversity and commonality, and the coexistence of openness and pluralism. This suggests that Xi Jinping's foreign policy will emphasize mutual understanding of differences and diversity, equality, and respect. Second, regarding China's international status, he holds a contradictory view of China as both the world's largest power and the world's largest developing country. This is because China, while ranking outside the top 90 in per capita income, is the world's second-largest economy in terms of scale. In this context, China under Xi Jinping is expected to focus on enhancing its economic influence over neighboring countries and leveraging this to increase its influence in political, diplomatic, and security spheres. Third, from a strategic perspective, he emphasizes the concept of interdependence, where all issues are closely linked, and stresses the need to prevent international disputes from surfacing and negatively impacting relations between the parties involved. Therefore, the fifth-generation leadership is expected to prioritize conflict management through preventive diplomacy.

Prospects for China-US Relations and Korean Peninsula Policy in the Xi Jinping Era

"New type of major power relationship between China and the US pursuing common interests: ① Objectively and rationally understand the strategic intentions of the other party ② Strengthen communication to resolve cooperative international and regional issues."

"Balanced Korean Peninsula Policy: ① Maintain the blood alliance between North Korea and China ② Increased demand for reform and opening-up, especially for improving the lives of residents outside Pyongyang."

China is reorganizing its relations with other major powers, recognizing itself as one of the world's largest nations. The concept of a "new type of major power relationship" between China and the US emerged in this context. The core of this new type of major power relationship, which China proudly claims is the first concept of its kind in international relations history, lies in the "pursuit of common interests." The background for China's emphasis on common interests stems from the shared recognition that actively building a win-win relationship based on mutual respect and cooperation between China and the US serves the common interests of both countries as well as the world. Specific aspects of the new type of major power relationship highlighted by China include: first, objectively and rationally understanding the strategic intentions of the other party in relations with all major powers; and second, strengthening communication to cooperatively resolve important international and regional issues.

As Xi Jinping is a leader who emphasizes pragmatism, China's fifth-generation leadership is expected to pursue a balanced diplomatic strategy between South Korea and North Korea overall. However, given that the US and China are managing the region centered around the ROK-US alliance and the ROK-Japan alliance on one axis, and the North Korea-China alliance on the other, China will fundamentally have to embrace North Korea to maintain the power balance in Northeast Asia. In particular, Xi Jinping has a history of emphasizing the North Korea-China blood alliance by describing the Korean War as a "just war" at the 60th anniversary commemoration of China's participation in the Korean War in 2010, making it highly probable that he will adopt a stance of supporting and defending North Korea on the international stage.

At the same time, China desires North Korea to become a non-shabby alliance partner. Recognizing the strategic value of the North Korea-China alliance, China expects North Korea to play a constructive role in contributing to peace and stability in Northeast Asia. In this context, China under Xi Jinping is highly likely to demand stronger reform and opening-up from North Korea. Notably, four out of the seven members of the fifth-generation leadership's Politburo Standing Committee—Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, and Wang Qishan—are former provincial secretaries. These individuals, who worked to develop the economies of their respective counties, the frontline administrative units of reform and opening-up, have risen to the highest echelons of power based on their achievements. Against this backdrop, the Xi Jinping leadership is expected to urge North Korea to take measures to improve the lives of its residents and regions outside Pyongyang, recognizing that North Korea's current food and economic crises are not merely issues for the citizens and city of Pyongyang.

Korea's Challenges

"Establish Korea's diplomatic goals and values as a middle power within a grand strategy framework."

"Take the lead in establishing regional multilateral cooperation mechanisms and encourage China's participation."

"Urgent need to establish channels for close communication with both the US and China."

The most critical issue for South Korea, situated between the US and China, is to soberly assess what it can achieve as a middle power. While it needs to strengthen cooperation with the US for its security interests, China is an important partner for its economic interests. Without establishing the value, goals, and grand strategy of its national diplomacy, South Korea risks losing consistency and being swayed by practical gains as it pursues its policies.

The role of middle power South Korea is to take the lead in establishing regional multilateral cooperation mechanisms and to encourage China's participation in these mechanisms. This will create opportunities for major regional powers to naturally share common values and norms.

South Korea, which maintains the ROK-US alliance, needs to make significant efforts to alleviate China's concerns that it is inevitably biased towards the US. Many believe that the Roh Moo-hyun administration's emphasis on ROK-China relations led to a deterioration in ROK-US relations, and the Lee Myung-bak administration's strengthening of ROK-US relations led to a cooling of ROK-China relations. However, in reality, the most summit meetings between South Korea and China occurred during the Lee Myung-bak administration. It is not desirable to view the improvement of relations with the US as possible only through the deterioration of relations with China. The crucial point is that despite the numerous meetings between leaders, concrete channels for communication between South Korea and China have not been established. The US and China are now constants in South Korea's foreign policy. Bipartisan efforts are urgently needed to establish channels for close communication with both countries.■

The East Asia Institute (EAI) has been selected as a core research institution for the MacArthur Foundation's "Asia Security Initiative" program and receives financial support. EAI has been conducting Smart Q&A, an interview-style video series with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through Q&A sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript was compiled by Researcher Kim Yang-gyu (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) from interview content and represents the personal opinions of the expert, not the official stance of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.