Smart Q&A: Han Suk-hee] "Assertive China" and Prospects for China's Foreign Policy in 2013

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/120713_smarthsh.flv

Professor Han Suk-hee holds a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School at Tufts University and is currently a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University, and the director of the China Research Center at the East Asia Institute.

The South China Sea Dispute and "Assertive China"

Background of China's Assertive Actions: ① Relative Decline of the United States, ② Conservatization of Domestic Politics during Leadership Transition, ③ Increased Role of the Military in Decision-Making, ④ Psychological Scars of History

The most crucial factor in understanding China's assertive actions is the 2008 global financial crisis. The economic decline of the United States, which Chinese people believed they could never surpass despite their own remarkable economic growth through reform and opening up, had a significant impact. It was precisely this change that boosted Chinese confidence, leading to discussions about China's core interests. As the power gap between the US and China narrowed, the perception that China should now demonstrate its strength as a great power spread, altering China's attitude in its foreign relations.

Second, domestic political changes in China are also a significant factor. China is on the verge of the emergence of its fifth-generation leadership. In socialist states, when leadership succession is at stake, existing political forces tend to handle all matters conservatively to extend their political lives. This background often leads to ideological competition or a "clarity competition" (선명경쟁), resulting in a conservative trend in overall discourse.

Third, the increased role of the military in China's decision-making process is noteworthy. The anecdote of then-US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates asking about the intention behind the test flight of the J-20 stealth fighter in January 2011, and President Hu Jintao being unaware of the flight, is well-known. While this anecdote may be difficult to accept at face value, it is true that the military's role in China's decision-making has grown, which can be seen as a background to China's current military expansion.

Fourth, there is the psychological scar of history that the Chinese people carry. Having suffered greatly from Western imperialist aggression since the Opium Wars in the mid-1800s, China is now focused on securing national interests commensurate with its growing strength. When Dai Bingguo, China's State Councilor for Foreign Affairs, stated regarding the South China Sea issue that "small countries, such as the Philippines, should not bully larger countries," it stemmed from the perception that territories originally belonging to China were being encroached upon. This logic underlies the idea that China's strong response to such issues is natural.

Officially, China limits its core interests to Taiwan, Tibet, and the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region. Nevertheless, the informal inclusion of the South China Sea within its core interests appears to be an attempt to signal to the international community the importance China places on this issue.

The Fifth-Generation Leadership and Prospects for China's Foreign Policy in 2013

China's Fifth-Generation Leadership Likely to Pursue Regional Hegemony: ① Policy Independence of the Xi Jinping Group, ② Increased Advisory Role of Yan Xuetong, ③ Potential for Assertive Foreign Policy to Stabilize Domestic Issues

The fifth-generation leadership is likely to pursue a foreign policy that emphasizes regional hegemony, rather than "responsible great power" or "developed country focused on rise."

First, this is due to the policy independence of the upcoming Xi Jinping leadership, distinguishing it from the fourth-generation leadership. The third-generation leader Jiang Zemin could not achieve policy independence from Deng Xiaoping, inheriting Deng's policies of "reform and opening up" and "hide your strength, bide your time" (韜光養晦). In contrast, the fourth-generation leader Hu Jintao, while not completely departing from the reform and opening-up policy line, sought a degree of policy independence with his "Scientific Outlook on Development" and "Peaceful Rise Theory." The fifth-generation Xi Jinping group is expected to pursue greater policy independence than the fourth-generation leadership, and in this process, is likely to adopt a stance that emphasizes its status as a great power.

Second, this is because the advisory role of Professor Yan Xuetong will increase. While Professor Wang Jisi of Peking University played a significant role in foreign policy decision-making during Hu Jintao's tenure, Professor Yan Xuetong of Tsinghua University is expected to assume this role in the Xi Jinping era. Professor Wang Jisi emphasized that China should lower its profile and focus on its development, rather than confronting the United States. In contrast, Professor Yan Xuetong, as articulated in his op-ed in the International Herald Tribune, "How Assertive Should a Great Power Be?", argues that China should move beyond the "hide your strength, bide your time" policy and assume a new role commensurate with its national strength.

Third, this is due to the domestic political challenges that the Xi Jinping leadership will face. The domestic and international policy environment that Xi Jinping will inherit differs significantly from that of the Hu Jintao era. Economically, China continues its growth trajectory, but politically, it faces demands for domestic political reform stemming from the growth of the middle class. Therefore, while needing to devote more effort to managing domestic issues, there is a possibility that this situation will be addressed through external assertiveness.

Sino-US Relations and South Korea's Strategy

Short-term Hedging: Developing ROK-China Relations Centered on the ROK-US Alliance

Expanding South Korea's Role in the World Beyond Northeast Asia

Pursuing Maximization of South Korea's National Interest by Setting Direction on a Thematic and Issue-by-Issue Basis

The dilemma of South Korea being caught between the US and China is a long-standing issue. Observing the actions of the US and China closely, it appears likely that Sino-US relations will ultimately lead to conflict. Nevertheless, it is difficult for South Korea to mediate or reconcile the clash between these two superpowers. Therefore, there is an urgent need to consider how to protect South Korea's national interests within the given environment.

Firstly, in the short term, South Korea has no choice but to adopt a hedging strategy, pursuing the development of ROK-China relations centered on the ROK-US alliance. Existing research indicates that while China does have concerns about the ROK-US alliance, it does not oppose it strongly enough to demand its dissolution. This implies that South Korea can gain a certain degree of understanding from China by continuously persuading it of the necessity of the ROK-US alliance from a security perspective due to the North Korean threat. Concurrently, efforts must be made to continuously explain and seek understanding from the US regarding the importance of ROK-China relations from an economic perspective. South Korea's trade dependence on China currently stands at 24 percent and is projected to rise to 27-28 percent. Japan's dependence on China is around 17 percent, meaning it faces relatively lower costs than South Korea if it increases pressure on China in coordination with the US. Therefore, it is crucial to explain to the US that South Korea will find it difficult to align with the US as much as Japan does when the US pursues a containment strategy against China.

However, it is questionable how long this hedging strategy can be maintained. In the long term, a more fundamental approach is necessary. What is clear is that South Korea must continue its efforts toward globalization. Instead of being confined to Northeast Asia, South Korea must strive to enhance its role in a broader global context, thereby elevating its international standing. Furthermore, rather than unilaterally supporting either the US or China, it is necessary to maximize national interests by setting South Korea's course on a thematic and issue-by-issue basis. ■

The East Asia Institute (EAI) has been selected as a core research institution for the MacArthur Foundation's "Asia Security Initiative" program and is receiving financial support. EAI has been conducting Smart Q&A, a video interview series with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through Q&A sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript was compiled from interview content by Researcher Kim Yang-gyu (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) and Team Leader Kim Ha-jeong (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies). The opinions expressed are those of the individual experts and do not represent the views of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.