[Smart Q&A: Jeong Han-wool] The 'Pro-North Korea' Controversy and Prospects for the South Korean Presidential Election

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/120615_smartjhw_k.flv

Jeong Han-wool is slated to receive a Ph.D. in Political Science from Korea University and currently serves as the Deputy Director of the Public Opinion Analysis Center at the East Asia Institute.

Recent Trends in Public Opinion During the Transition of the Presidential Election Phase

“A Decrease in the Progressive Segment in Subjective Ideological Distribution, a Temporary Phenomenon Rather Than a Fundamental Change”

“The 'Pro-North Korea' Controversy: While a Short-Term Detriment to the Opposition Party, It Could Strengthen Countervailing Sentiments if the Ruling Party Intensifies its Attacks”

Following the April 11 general election, the approval ratings for former interim leader Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party have risen, while those for the opposition parties and their candidates have declined. Of particular note is the shift in the ideological mood. Since the current administration took office, the subjective ideological distribution of public opinion has shown a stable equilibrium, with moderates comprising 35-40 percent, conservatives around 30 percent, and progressives about 25 percent. However, a survey conducted by the East Asia Institute and Korea Research on May 28-29 revealed that the proportion of respondents identifying as progressive fell below 20 percent, indicating a potential disruption of this ideological equilibrium.

It would be premature to interpret this phenomenon as a fundamental and long-term shift. The political changes that have occurred since the opposition's defeat in the general election, including the allegations of election fraud within the Unified Progressive Party and the recent 'pro-North Korea' controversy, can be seen as having caused a short-term fluctuation in the ideological distribution. It is highly probable that the equilibrium among progressive, moderate, and conservative ideological distributions will be restored depending on the future responses of the political parties.

The recent 'pro-North Korea' controversy is a short-term detriment to the opposition and a boon to the ruling party. Previously, public opinion regarding North Korea tended to favor progressive stances advocating for engagement policies over the conservative preference for hardline approaches. However, following the Cheonan sinking and Yeonpyeong shelling incidents in 2010, public opinion shifted towards a tougher stance on North Korea. Against this backdrop, the 'pro-North Korea' controversy emerged during the allegations of fraud within the Unified Progressive Party, leading to a short-term consolidation of the conservative base, internal divisions within the progressive camp, and heightened vigilance towards 'pro-North Korea' elements among moderates.

It remains uncertain whether this situation will persist in the long term. Notably, as the 'pro-North Korea' controversy was not spontaneously generated within civil society but rather amplified by the Saenuri Party, which even called for the expulsion of involved lawmakers, its long-term impact could yield contrary results. In other words, while the current political climate may be unfavorable to the opposition, if the Saenuri Party excessively intensifies its attacks on the opposition, leveraging the 'North Korea card' due to public wariness, it could provoke public backlash against the exploitation of the North Korea issue, thereby strengthening countervailing sentiments against the Saenuri Party. Considering that the rise in approval ratings for the Saenuri Party and former leader Park Geun-hye after the April 11 general election was partly due to moderates endorsing the party's reform efforts led by the interim committee, an excessive intensification of attacks on the opposition through the 'pro-North Korea' controversy could re-ignite antipathy and vigilance among moderates. This could potentially undermine the ruling party's efforts to broaden support for former leader Park Geun-hye to the moderate segment. Therefore, the impact of the 'pro-North Korea' controversy on the presidential election is a matter that warrants careful observation.

2012 South Korean Presidential Election Prospects

“The April 11 General Election Results Indicate a Balanced Political Landscape, Not a Ruling Party Advantage”

“If the Leadership Vacuum in the Opposition Camp is Resolved, the Balance Between Ruling and Opposition Presidential Candidates is Likely to Be Restored”

Prior to the April 11 general election, former leader Park Geun-hye appeared to be slightly trailing against Ahn Cheol-soo in one-on-one matchups. However, following the general election, opinion polls showed her regaining the top position in both influence and credibility, reigniting the so-called 'Park Geun-hye momentum.' Nevertheless, the current dominance of former leader Park Geun-hye and the Saenuri Party cannot be considered as firmly established as the 'momentum' suggests.

The 2007 presidential election was held at a time when the public's disappointment with the Uri Party led to strong support for the Grand National Party, clearly disrupting the balance of power between the ruling and opposition parties. In contrast, the current political climate is characterized by a balanced structure, with approval ratings for both the ruling and opposition parties being neck and neck. While the Saenuri Party secured more seats than the Democratic United Party in the general election due to the plurality-take-all system in single-member districts, the party vote results—Saenuri Party 42.8 percent, Democratic United Party 36.5 percent, and Unified Progressive Party 10.3 percent—indicate that the ruling and opposition parties are in a balanced state in terms of actual support. Therefore, it is difficult to conclude that the current advantage of the Saenuri Party and former leader Park Geun-hye will persist throughout the presidential election.

The rise in approval ratings for former leader Park Geun-hye is attributable to both her own efforts and the 반사이익 (spillover benefit) from the leadership vacuum in the opposition camp. As mentioned earlier, her leadership during the Saenuri Party's crisis, including rebranding the party, spearheading reform efforts, and advocating for economic democratization and welfare issues, defied expectations of a landslide defeat and resulted in securing a majority of seats. This clearly indicates that former leader Park Geun-hye's personal influence significantly contributed to the increase in approval ratings. However, the current advantage also stems from the opposition's leadership void. Despite heightened public sentiment for punishing the government due to worsening economic conditions and a series of corruption scandals prior to the general election, the opposition demonstrated leadership issues throughout the election campaign, including confusion in candidate nominations and inept responses to the civilian surveillance scandal. Furthermore, even after the election, they exhibited a lack of leadership in managing internal conflicts over accountability.

Therefore, considering the current balanced public support for both the ruling and opposition parties, it is highly probable that the balance between the ruling and opposition presidential candidates will be rapidly restored once the opposition leadership recovers.

Tasks for the Next Administration as Reflected in Public Opinion

“Resolving Economic Polarization, Expanding Welfare, and Improving the Quality of Individual Lives”

“Political Reform Issues: The Need for Self-Reflection and Self-Reform within the Existing Political Establishment”

“National Security Issues, Including North Korea: Experience in State Administration May Emerge as a Key Topic”

Predicting which agendas will be at the forefront of the next presidential election is challenging. This is not solely dependent on the direction of public opinion but is a result of the interplay between the choices made by the elites of each campaign camp and the public's response to them. Given the current difficulty in discerning the strategic plans of the presidential candidates from each party, accurately forecasting the core agendas of the election is arduous. However, based on a comprehensive analysis of opinion polls conducted during the current administration, three significant tasks that the public expects from the next administration can be identified.

First, economic issues. Public opinion polls consistently highlight issues related to livelihoods stemming from economic polarization and worsening perceived economic conditions under the current administration, making the resolution of these economic problems the area where voter expectations are highest. Recently, not only structural polarization but also issues concerning the quality of individual lives have emerged as important agendas. Furthermore, following the welfare debate and the subsequent demand for expanded welfare, expectations for national economic growth have re-emerged, increasing the likelihood that comprehensive economic issues will become significant points of contention during the presidential election.

Second, political reform. The meteoric rise of Ahn Cheol-soo after last year's Seoul mayoral by-election clearly demonstrates the public's strong distrust of the existing political forces and parties. In the upcoming presidential election, candidates and political forces will struggle to gain significant support if they fail to present a new vision for Korean politics and regain public trust. While past political reform demands primarily focused on institutional improvements, the current issue extends beyond institutional reform to encompass the entirety of politics, stemming from public anger over political efficacy. Therefore, a posture of self-reflection and self-reform is more crucial than institutional improvements at present. Political forces that exhibit such introspection are likely to gain an advantageous position in the upcoming presidential election.

Third, national security issues. While not yet fully materialized, North Korea remains a potential significant variable given the current strained inter-Korean relations. Depending on domestic 'pro-North Korea' controversies, changes in inter-Korean relations, and shifts in the international political landscape, national security may emerge as a critical issue in voters' decision-making. Notably, the Saenuri Party may pursue a strategy of highlighting national security issues, arguing that opposition candidates like Ahn Cheol-soo or Moon Jae-in, who are reportedly lacking in statecraft or political experience, would be unable to effectively manage such national security matters. ■

The East Asia Institute (EAI) has been selected as a core research institution for the MacArthur Foundation's 'Asia Security Initiative' program and is receiving financial support. EAI has been conducting Smart Q&A sessions in the format of video interviews with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through question-and-answer sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript was compiled by Researcher Kim Yang-gyu (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) and Team Leader Kim Ha-jeong (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) from the interview content. The opinions expressed are those of the individual experts and do not necessarily reflect the views of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.