[Smart Q&A: Ko Jae-nam] The Russian Presidential Election Results and Future Northeast Asian Dynamics

YouTube Link: video.eai.or.kr/120307_smartkjn_k.flv

Professor Ko Jae-nam holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Missouri and is currently a professor in the Department of European and African Studies at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

Russian Presidential Election Results and Political Outlook

“Putin’s victory was due to an effective election campaign, opposition disunity, and public desire for stability and great power status.”

“Protests by opposition parties and civic groups will lose momentum over time.”

In the Russian presidential election held on March 4, Vladimir Putin secured a landslide victory with 63.75 percent of the vote. This victory is somewhat unexpected, considering the decline in approval ratings for Putin and the United Russia party since early last year. This is particularly noteworthy given that United Russia, which held 315 out of 450 seats (70 percent) in the Duma, secured only 238 seats (52.89 percent) in the parliamentary elections last December, and subsequently faced strong public criticism after allegations of electoral fraud emerged.

Putin's decisive victory is analyzed as a result of a combination of factors: 1) Putin's own effective election campaign, 2) the disunity of the opposition and the absence of a strong opposition candidate, and 3) the public's desire for stability and the restoration of great power status. Unlike in the past, Putin engaged with voters through nationwide tours and, unlike other candidates, published seven papers on topics such as "diplomacy, national security, socio-economic issues, democracy, economy, ethnic issues, and Russia's challenges," outlining his domestic and foreign policy directions if re-elected. In contrast, the opposition forces, rather than presenting concrete visions, focused on the Medvedev government's failures and Putin's prolonged rule as election issues, but were unable to unite due to differing party platforms and individual candidates' ambitions for the presidency.

The Russian Communist Party and anti-Putin civic groups maintain their stance of continuing protests against alleged electoral fraud during the presidential election. However, moderate opposition forces and civic groups hope that Putin will promptly implement the promised political, social, and economic reforms. Considering the government's efforts to prevent allegations of electoral fraud, such as accepting international election observers and installing 200,000 surveillance cameras at polling stations, this election can be considered relatively fair by Russian electoral standards. Therefore, the momentum of protests against alleged fraud and anti-Putin demonstrations by opposition parties and civic groups is expected to significantly weaken over time. The protesters' demands are also likely to shift towards specific calls for the implementation of the reforms promised by Putin.

Future Russian Foreign Policy and Northeast Asian Dynamics

“The emphasis on a 'strong Russia' and resolute, independent policies for 'national interest protection' is likely to be election rhetoric.”

“In reality, the existing pragmatic foreign policy line will be maintained.”

“A balanced policy towards the Korean Peninsula, leaning towards South Korea, will be pursued, maintaining a relationship of cooperation and conflict on an issue-by-issue basis with the United States. While short-term strategic cooperative partnerships with China will deepen, a balancing role may be sought in the medium to long term. Efforts will be made to expand economic and energy cooperation with Japan amidst ongoing territorial disputes.”

In his op-ed published on February 27, titled "Russia and the Changing World," Putin declared Russia's intention to play an independent role on the international stage based on "strong national power and national interests." He particularly criticized the Western world's interventionist policies in the "Arab Spring" and emphasized the urgent need to strengthen military capabilities to guarantee the inviolability of state sovereignty and maintain its great power status in the international community.

However, the emphasis on a ‘strong Russia’ and resolute, independent policy promotion for ‘national interest protection’ during the presidential election campaign is likely to have been election rhetoric, and it is anticipated that Russia will actually maintain its existing pragmatic foreign policy. This is because, in order to successfully promote the immediate economic modernization, construct a multipolar international order, deepen integration with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, and enhance its role in the international community, it is necessary to maintain a stance that emphasizes cooperation rather than confrontation.

Regarding policy towards the Korean Peninsula, Russia is expected to maintain its policy of not recognizing North Korea as a nuclear-weapon state and upholding stability and peace on the peninsula. Simultaneously, it will continue to pursue a policy of expanding its influence and strengthening its position on the peninsula through a balanced approach leaning towards South Korea.

Cooperation with the United States will be sought on international issues such as nuclear proliferation, terrorism, and drug trafficking. However, a relationship of cooperation and conflict on an issue-by-issue basis will be maintained regarding the European missile defense system (MD), unilateral intervention in Middle Eastern affairs, and the deepening of strategic imbalances.

Regarding China, with no significant changes expected in the existing policy towards China, efforts will likely be made in the short term to further deepen and expand strategic cooperation at bilateral and international levels to advance the 'strategic cooperative partnership.' However, in the medium to long term, Russia may seek a role as a balancer if China's rise becomes excessive. Therefore, it will be crucial to closely observe how the trilateral relationship among the US, Russia, and China evolves with China's growing influence.

Resolving the Kuril Islands (Northern Territories) dispute with Japan is unlikely to be easy. However, the Putin administration is expected to actively pursue economic cooperation policies with Japan to promote economic modernization and the development of the Far East and Siberia.

South Korea's Response

“Cooperative projects should be actively pursued to solidify the 'strategic cooperative partnership'.”

“Russia's constructive role in ensuring stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula, including the North Korean nuclear issue, should be encouraged.”

“Active participation in the development policies for the Far East and Siberia is necessary to secure a bridgehead for a unified Korea to advance into the continent.”

South Korea-Russia relations have developed more than ever in the past four to five years, with frequent summit meetings and strengthened exchanges and cooperation at the civilian level, including the Korea-Russia Forum. It is now time to actively pursue cooperative projects to solidify the 'strategic cooperative partnership,' which was elevated from the 'relationship of mutual trust and comprehensive partnership' in September 2008.

It is necessary to encourage Russia's constructive role in ensuring stability and peace on the Korean Peninsula, including the North Korean nuclear issue. In this context, support should be provided for the early resumption of the Six-Party Talks and the revitalization of the working group for the Northeast Asian peace and security regime, chaired by Russia. Efforts should be made to strengthen political and diplomatic initiatives to ensure the successful implementation of the South-North-Russia gas pipeline cooperation project. The gas pipeline project is not merely an energy issue but can serve as a catalyst for deepening economic interdependence between the two Koreas and improving political and diplomatic relations. Therefore, efforts should be made to expedite the project's implementation. If the gas pipeline project is successful, it will also provide momentum for projects such as the connection of the Trans-Korean Railway (TKR) with the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), power grid interconnections, and green growth cooperation.

Active participation in Russia's economic modernization and development policies for the Far East and Siberia is required. Furthermore, government and civilian efforts are needed to establish and expand economic outposts in Russia to secure a bridgehead for a unified Korea to advance into the continent.

It is necessary to share South Korea's experience in hosting international conferences with the Russian government for the successful organization of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Vladivostok, scheduled for September 2012. Support should also be provided for Russia to expand cooperation with Asia-Pacific countries and strengthen economic integration.

The East Asia Institute (EAI) has been selected as a core research institution for the MacArthur Foundation's 'Asia Security Initiative' program and is receiving financial support. EAI has been conducting Smart Q&A video interviews with domestic and international experts, aiming to provide timely and in-depth analysis of current issues through question-and-answer sessions with experts in relevant fields. This manuscript was compiled by Researcher Kim Yang-gyu (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) and Team Leader Kim Ha-jeong (EAI Center for Asian Security Studies) based on interviews. The opinions expressed are those of the experts and do not necessarily reflect the views of the East Asia Institute. Please cite the source when quoting from Smart Q&A.