Changing Korean Voters 7: The 2022 Presidential Election and Korean Politics

The Unprecedented Process and Outcome of the 20th Presidential Election

The 20th presidential election, held in March 2022, unfolded in ways that differed from previous elections in several aspects. With individuals lacking legislative experience nominated as presidential candidates by the two major parties, voters relied on campaign activities and mutual attacks for information acquisition without sufficient vetting processes. The grand discourse on state governance, a recurring theme in presidential elections, disappeared, replaced by tailored campaign pledges aimed at specific supporter groups. The election was decided by the narrowest margin of votes since democratization, reflecting the extreme partisan division during the Moon Jae-in administration. Regional and generational cleavages, long-standing characteristics of Korean politics, persisted, while unprecedented gender conflict emerged, particularly among younger generations, drawing significant attention to the voting intentions of young voters.

Changing Korean Voters 7 observes and deeply analyzes the new phenomena that emerged in the 20th presidential election from various perspectives. Published at a critical juncture in Korean politics, this book offers a new perspective on the future of Korean democracy by examining the notable changes in the current political landscape.

EAI's Seventh Installment of the "Changing Korean Voters" Series: A New Horizon in the Study of Korean Electoral Politics

The East Asia Institute (EAI) has been conducting panel surveys to gauge public opinion trends before and after elections, starting with the 2006 local elections. The "Changing Korean Voters" series has established itself as a treasure trove for research on Korean electoral politics by compiling studies by Korean political experts based on panel survey results. Through this series, EAI aims to elucidate the characteristics of changing Korean politics, present theoretical frameworks for understanding the landscape of Korean voters, and foster discussions for the advancement of Korean democracy.

Ten Perspectives on the 20th Presidential Election

This book is divided into three parts: Part I discusses the issues that influenced voter choices during the election period and voter behavior based on partisanship; Part II analyzes voter tendencies and changes in regionalism reflected in the election results; and Part III examines the background and impact of cleavages based on generation and gender.

In Chapter 1, Professor Kang Won-taek of Seoul National University examines the impact of evaluations of the Moon Jae-in administration's real estate policies on voters' decisions. In the absence of forward-looking grand narratives from the candidates, the failure of real estate policy served as a mechanism enabling retrospective voting. The author assesses that the results of the 20th presidential election not only demonstrated political accountability but also revealed voters' demand for practical, issue-based politics focused on daily life.

In Chapter 2, Professor Yoo Jae-seong of Keimyung University analyzes the choices of undecided voters and mobile voters who changed their preferred candidate during the election period, as well as the impact of the Yoon Suk-yeol-Ahn Cheol-soo candidate consolidation on the election outcome. Panel survey data analysis revealed that a significant portion of the votes shifted due to the candidate consolidation went to Yoon Suk-yeol, contributing to his victory. While Lee Jae-myung's strategy was effective in mobilizing undecided voters in the final stages of the election, it was insufficient to overturn the results.

In Chapter 3, Dr. Gil Jeong-ah, a research professor at the Korea University Institute for Government Research, demonstrates that behind the 20th presidential election, termed an "election of dislike," lay the phenomenon of emotional polarization among partisan voters. That is, the influence of voter groups who favored their party and expressed strong dislike for the opposing party offset each other across the two major parties, making the presidential election appear as a choice of the "lesser evil." The author suggests the need to discuss the political implications of the confrontation between polarized voters for the current state and desirable future of Korean democracy.

In Chapter 4, Professor Kim Jeong of the Graduate School of North Korean Studies at Kyungnam University divides the polarization of Korean voters into two dimensions—'ideological polarization' and 'affective polarization'—and explains the impact of partisan division and alignment. Comparing panel survey results from 2012 and 2022, it is revealed that over the past decade, the political factors influencing Korean voters' choices have shifted from ideological partisan alignment to affective partisan alignment. The author points out the need to pay attention to the potential for affective partisan alignment to lead to a qualitative decline in democracy.

In Chapter 5, Jeong Han-ul, a senior researcher at Korea Research, examines the background of the change in government by analyzing the factors behind the defection of some Democratic Party supporters after the 2020 general election. In particular, the background of significant supporter defection among voters in their 20s and 30s, the Gyeonggi-Incheon region, and the centrist bloc included conflicting evaluations of the Moon Jae-in administration and controversies and negative sentiments surrounding candidate Lee Jae-myung. The direction of these defecting voters is predicted to be a crucial variable in shaping the voter landscape that will form the basis for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's governance and the 2024 general election.

In Chapter 6, Professor Lee Jae-mook of Hankuk University of Foreign Studies examines whether the recent trend of weakening regional cleavages in Korean politics continued in the 20th presidential election and comprehensively analyzes voters' regional voting behavior. Both major parties recorded high vote shares in their traditional weak regions, indicating a potential weakening of regionalism. Notably, the decreasing degree of partisan bias by region, particularly among young voters, suggests the possibility of regionalism changing and other voting determinants replacing it in the future.

In Chapter 7, Professor Jeong Dong-jun of Inha University examines voters' responses to the authoritarian styles of the two leading candidates. Voters' authoritarian tendencies were higher among males, young people, and ideologically conservative groups, and were found to increase the probability of voting for Yoon Suk-yeol. The author points out the limitations of research that failed to consider the differences in authoritarian levels between candidates and left-wing authoritarianism, while urging vigilance regarding the impact of authoritarian tendencies of political elites and voters on the democratic system.

In Chapter 8, Professor Han Jeong-hoon of Seoul National University reviews the conservatism of young voters by comparing panel survey data from 2017 and 2022. Over five years, conservatism in Korean society as a whole strengthened, with a notable increase in conservative tendencies among those in their early thirties. However, the tendency for ideological conservatism among young voters to translate into behavioral conservatism supporting conservative party candidates was not clear. The author emphasizes the need for long-term tracking of ideological changes to identify the conservatism of young voters.

In Chapter 9, Associate Professor Bae Jin-seok of Gyeongsang National University identifies the voting behavior and ideological characteristics of the '86 generation' in past presidential elections. Contrary to their self-assessment as progressive, the '86 generation' did not actually make more progressive voting choices than other generations. Furthermore, in the 20th presidential election, the influence of ideology and policy preferences was greater than generational identity. The author explains that these results align with recent academic discussions that focus on intra-generational differences rather than inter-generational differences.

In Chapter 10, Kim Hanna, a researcher at the Seoul National University Institute for Korean Political Studies, examines the divergence in voting choices among voters in their 20s based on gender in the 20th presidential election. The gender cleavage among young voters, triggered by the subcultures of online communities, evolved into a political cleavage in conjunction with the mobilization strategies of political elites leading up to the 20th presidential election, significantly influencing the voting choices of young voters. The author suggests the possibility of institutional resolution of gender issues through the mobilization of gender cleavages.

Table of Contents

Foreword

Part I: Issues and Partisanship

Chapter 1: Issues in the 2022 Presidential Election: Focusing on the Evaluation of the Moon Jae-in Administration's Real Estate Policies (Kang Won-taek | Seoul National University)

Chapter 2: Characteristics and Voting Choices of Undecided and Mobile Voters (Yoo Jae-seong | Keimyung University)

Chapter 3: What Were the Attitudes of Major Party Supporters in an Election of Dislike?: Emotional Polarization of Partisan Voters in the 20th Presidential Election (Gil Jeong-ah | Korea University)

Chapter 4: Partisan Division and Alignment of Korean Voters: A Comparison of the 2012 and 2022 Presidential Elections (Kim Jeong | Graduate School of North Korean Studies)

Part II: Change and Continuity

Chapter 5: Why Was the 180-Seat Ruling Party Judged in Two Years?: Focusing on the Choices of Defecting Democrats (Jeong Han-ul | Korea Research)

Chapter 6: Change and Continuity of Regionalism in the 20th Presidential Election (Lee Jae-mook | Hankuk University of Foreign Studies)

Chapter 7: Voters' Authoritarian Tendencies Examined Through the 20th Presidential Election (Jeong Dong-jun | Inha University)

Part III: Generation and Gender

Chapter 8: A Shift in Youth? A Comparison of Ideological, Policy Preferences, and Voting Behavior in the 2017 and 2022 Presidential Elections (Han Jeong-hoon | Seoul National University)

Chapter 9: The '86 Generation' and the End of Generational Effects: Analysis of Presidential Elections from 1992-2022 (Bae Jin-seok | Gyeongsang National University)

Chapter 10: The 2022 Presidential Election and the Gender Cleavage Among Voters in Their 20s (Kim Hanna | Seoul National University)

Appendix

Author Biographies