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Conditions for the Success of the 20th President
| Beyond the Blue House Government, Pursue Integration and Coexistence! Conditions for the Successful State Administration of the 20th President! A Stern Warning from the East Asia Institute, Korea's Leading Think Tank, for the 20th President!! Conditions for Presidential Success Derived from Analyzing the History of Failure Prescription for Presidential Success Presented to the 20th Presidential Candidates The East Asia Institute, a think tank that has published the "Conditions for Presidential Success" series since the 2002 presidential election, has released its fifth prescription for success ahead of the 2022 election. Candidates and their campaign teams, as well as voters, are all preoccupied with finding the conditions for victory. It may be natural to prioritize winning the election at hand, as the winner can seize all power regardless of the percentage of votes received. However, in this process, candidates are forced to neglect preparations for the post-election period due to their sole focus on winning. This phenomenon has been observed in all presidents who have been elected and inaugurated since democratization. Consequently, presidents nearing the end of their term have been plagued by 'lame duck' status and the stigma of being a 'failed president.' However, a failed presidency is not merely a disgrace for the president; it is a disgrace and a failure for all involved, including politicians who served with the president and the public. Therefore, the fifth installment, "Conditions for the Success of the 20th President," published this time, identifies the causes of presidential failure, analyzes them, and derives the conditions for success from these failures. The authors of this book have distilled the conditions for a failing presidency into three key areas: First, the concentration of power in the presidency, as indicated by the term 'imperial presidency.' Second, the structure of extreme confrontation and division between political camps. Third, the increasing complexity and uncertainty of presidential duties. Conversely, the conditions for success identified are also threefold: First, power must be shared. Second, the divided populace must be integrated. Third, professionalism and execution capabilities must be secured. Through this, the book proposes, "Only by demonstrating innovative leadership that transitions from power concentration to decentralization, from political division to integration, and from communication and events to professionalism and execution capabilities, can a president be remembered in history as successful." Beyond the Blue House Government, Pursue Integration and Coexistence Given the short five-year term and the single-term limit, a president's success is inherently constrained. As the practical implementation of campaign promises becomes difficult, disappointment with the president grows towards the end of the term. Thus, the president of South Korea takes office under conditions that make success challenging. Consequently, the first condition for success, unanimously demanded by the nine expert contributors in "Conditions for the Success of the 20th President," is the decentralization of power concentrated in the presidency, moving beyond the 'Blue House government.' This demand stems from the increasing concentration of power in the 'Presidential Secretariat' and the president's excessive reliance on it. The Presidential Secretariat, commonly referred to as the 'Blue House,' is, by definition, a staff organization to assist the president. However, in practice, it has taken center stage in governance and intervened in state affairs. This concentration of power in the Presidential Secretariat and its intervention in state affairs, known as the 'Blue House government,' has become a target of criticism. The concentration of power in the Blue House not only increases the opacity of policy decisions but also inevitably lowers execution efficiency. While this issue was strongly criticized during the Park Geun-hye administration, it has not only failed to improve under the Moon Jae-in administration but has actually intensified. The concentration of power in the Blue House limits the resources available to the president for state administration and, by excluding bureaucrats—a valuable resource for governance—reduces policy operational expertise. This limitation is particularly evident as personnel from the presidential election campaign team tend to move en masse into the Presidential Secretariat upon the government's inauguration, leading to an inability to place talent in the right positions. Therefore, the book posits that appropriately dispersing the authority concentrated in the Blue House is the first condition for successful state administration. The next proposed condition for success is 'integration.' Korean politics is more divided and confrontational than ever, split into political and ideological extremes. Furthermore, economic polarization is deepening, and numerous divisions exist, including intergenerational conflict and gender strife. Consequently, it is difficult to advance major presidential policies, and legislation in the National Assembly faces hurdles. To overcome this, the president must broaden the consensus base in the National Assembly, centered around the ruling party, and pursue cooperation through the cabinet. The final proposed condition for success relates to the environment facing the new president. The world, both domestically and internationally, is characterized by increasing complexity and uncertainty. This is particularly true in foreign policy and national security. The restructuring of industries due to the information revolution, crises arising from low birth rates, aging populations, and climate change, the complex coordination of interests for balanced national development and the revitalization of declining regions, and the realignment of the global order following the US-China strategic competition and the pandemic all demand a presidential leadership that is significantly more critical than in the past. To address these challenges, the administration must be staffed with competent professionals, and above all, it must be composed of a government that possesses expertise and execution capabilities, discarding arrogance and stubbornness. Each of these three conditions for success is elaborated upon by nine experts who begin with a thorough analysis of the causes of failure in their respective fields and then present practical solutions. |
Nine Areas of Innovation for the 20th President to Focus On
The new book "Conditions for the Success of the 20th President" is structured into three parts: Part I, "Conditions for a Successful Head of Government"; Part II, "Conditions for Success in Politics of Harmony and Coexistence"; and Part III, "Conditions for Success in National Balanced Development and Communication."
In Chapter 1, "Innovate the Blue House Government," Professor Kang Won-taek of Seoul National University critiques the Blue House government as a breeding ground for power concentration and a distortion of state administration. He persuasively analyzes how the concentration of power in the Presidential Secretariat limits the resources available to the president and proposes utilizing the Blue House Secretariat as a staff organization rather than an executive body. He also offers specific operational plans for the Blue House Secretariat. His concluding remark, "The president's success hinges on the effective utilization of the executive branch," provides valuable insight into how the 20th president should structure the Blue House early in their term.
In Chapter 2, "Share Authority and Administer State Affairs with a Long-Term Perspective," Professor Park Jin of the KDI School of Public Policy and Management presents the processes and infrastructure for formulating good policies to improve citizens' livelihoods. Through this, he calls for the president to adopt a stance of power decentralization and to possess a "long-term perspective" to achieve "achievements that will be remembered in history."
In Chapter 3, "Innovate the Foreign Policy and National Security Command Tower," Professor Son Yeol of Yonsei University outlines four major challenges and five key action items for success in the increasingly complex and uncertain field of foreign policy and national security. He emphasizes that foreign policy and national security, often not sufficiently addressed during election campaigns, become critically important after the president's election, and he presents the president's responsibilities for safeguarding South Korea's survival and prosperity. He specifically advises the new president to guard against the politicization of foreign policy and to strengthen the policy coordination function of the National Security Council.
In Chapter 4, "Do Not Be Swayed by Bureaucrats; Control Them Democratically," Professor Jang Seung-jin of Kookmin University proposes methods to motivate bureaucrats, the most crucial partners in achieving the president's state objectives. He suggests effectively utilizing the president's appointment power to ensure bureaucrats' willing cooperation. He offers specific measures such as "Do not fear code appointments," "Appoint heads of power institutions with maximum neutrality," and "Establish a system of mutual checks and balances among power institutions." Through these, he urges the president to maximize the capabilities of bureaucrats.
In Chapter 5, "Establish a Bridgehead for Stable State Administration," Professor Lee Hyun-chul of Konkuk University calls for communication and cooperation among the ruling party, the government, and the Blue House. Viewing communication between the party, government, and Blue House as the starting point for presidential leadership, the author presents directions for establishing a desirable relationship between the party and the government. He specifically urges the president to understand the party-government relationship as a "two-person, three-legged race" to restore the relationship that has drifted apart since democratization, arguing that this is essential for achieving practical results in policy implementation. This suggestion is noteworthy as it offers a way to mend the party-government relationship, which has been strained across both progressive and conservative administrations since the Roh Moo-hyun era.
In Chapter 6, "Respect the National Assembly from the Perspective of Cooperation," Professor Choi Jun-young of Inha University advocates for a cooperative relationship with the National Assembly, framing it as "National Assembly-President" rather than "President-National Assembly." He presents practical principles for the president to implement, such as "Mobilizing the public yields more harm than good," "Consensus is better than majority rule," and "Negotiations with the opposition party are sometimes better left opaque," urging the president to become successful by deliberating with the National Assembly.
In Chapter 7, "Failure of the Constitution, Failure of the Judiciary, Failure of the Presidency," Professor Kim Jeong of the University of North Korean Studies uses examples of constitutional, judicial, and presidential failures caused by the president's politically aligned appointments to empirically demonstrate the principle that judicial reform begins with fair appointments of Supreme Court justices. He recommends that "The operation of 'invisible' power to curb the abuse of judicial administrative power by the Chief Justice begins with institutionally guaranteeing a Supreme Court en banc that possesses both neutrality and diversity." Ultimately, he emphasizes the importance of the president's exercise of appointment power, suggesting that success hinges on how wisely the president utilizes the appointment authority for the Chief Justice and Supreme Court justices.
In Chapter 8, "Propose a New Paradigm for Balanced National Development," Professor Cha Jae-kwon of Pukyong National University proposes realistic measures for balanced national development to address the current crisis of regional extinction. The author posits that mechanical balanced development policies are bound to fail in regions facing extinction and proposes, "The nation thrives when regions thrive; let's first prevent regional extinction." He also suggests moving beyond an obsession with mechanical balance and focusing on increasing the pie for balanced development through selection and concentration. This chapter offers a practical vision for balanced development on the brink of regional extinction.
In the final Chapter 9, "Discard 'Arrogance,' the President's Greatest Enemy," Professor Han Kyu-seop of Seoul National University analyzes the causes of declining presidential approval ratings and draws insights into presidential leadership from this analysis. The study reveals that 'arrogance' became the most significant turning point, causing the decline in approval ratings for presidents who took office with high support. In a political environment where party bosses have disappeared, presidential arrogance acts as a decisive factor in the drop in approval ratings. The media also plays a crucial role in this. For successful state administration, the president must discard arrogance and exercise leadership for integration.
Acquiring power is less important and more difficult than governing successfully. The new book "Conditions for the Success of the 20th President" is a guide for all who wish for the successful state administration of the next president.
Table of Contents
Foreword
Introduction: Three Conditions for Presidential Success│Son Yeol
Part I: Conditions for Presidential Success I - Conditions for a Successful Head of Government
1. Abolish the Blue House Government: How to Utilize the Presidential Secretariat (Kang Won-taek│Seoul National University)
The First Milestone on the Path from Election to Success: The Blue House
The Blue House Government Limits the Resources Available to the President
Utilize the Blue House Secretariat as a Staff Organization, Not an Executive Body
The President's Success Hinges on the Effective Utilization of the Executive Branch
2. Share Authority and Administer State Affairs with a Long-Term Perspective: The President's Stance for Successful National Administration (Park Jin│KDI School of Public Policy and Management)
How to Improve the Livelihoods of the People
Design the Process for Formulating Good Policies
Build the Infrastructure for Formulating Good Policies
Adopt a Long-Term Perspective for the President's True Success
3. Innovate the Foreign Policy and National Security Command Tower: Five Conditions for a Successful Foreign Policy President (Son Yeol│East Asia Institute/Yonsei University)
The President's Absolute Authority, Foreign Policy and National Security, Determines the Nation's Future
Four Major Challenges Awaiting the 20th President
Five Key Action Items for Success as a Foreign Policy President
The President's Role in Safeguarding South Korea's Survival and Prosperity
4. Do Not Be Swayed by Bureaucrats; Control Them Democratically: Motivate the Bureaucratic Society to Achieve State Objectives (Jang Seung-jin│Kookmin University)
Motivate Bureaucrats, Partners in State Administration, to Cooperate Willingly
Why is Democratic Control Over Bureaucrats Necessary?
What Should Be Done and How to Motivate Bureaucrats?
Lead Bureaucrats to Maximize Their Capabilities
Part II: Conditions for Presidential Success II - Conditions for Success in Politics of Harmony and Coexistence
5. Establish a Bridgehead for Stable State Administration: Enhance Execution Capabilities Through Communication and Cooperation Among the Ruling Party, Government, and Blue House (Lee Hyun-chul│Konkuk University)
Communication and Cooperation Between the Ruling Party, Government, and Blue House: The Starting Point for Presidential Leadership
The Party-Government Relationship Drifting Apart Since Democratization
What is the Direction for Establishing a Desirable Relationship Between the Party and the Government?
Restore the Party-Government Relationship as a Two-Person, Three-Legged Race for Presidential Success
6. Respect the National Assembly from the Perspective of Cooperation: Successfully Position the National Assembly-President Relationship (Choi Jun-young│Inha University)
Imagine the National Assembly-President Relationship from the Perspective of Cooperation
No Policy Without Politics
Mobilizing the Public Yields More Harm Than Good
Consensus is Better Than Majority Rule
Negotiations with the Opposition Party Are Sometimes Better Left Opaque
To Be a Successful President, Deliberate Together with the National Assembly
7. Failure of the Constitution, Failure of the Judiciary, Failure of the Presidency: Exercise Leadership to Set the Judiciary Right (Kim Jeong│University of North Korean Studies)
Failures of the Constitution, Judiciary, and Presidency Caused by Politically Aligned Appointments
The Constitutional Failure Caused by Judicial Impeachment
The Judicial Failure Caused by Judicial Misconduct
The Presidential Failure Caused by Partisan Appointments
Judicial Reform Begins with Fair Supreme Court Appointments
III Conditions for Presidential Success: National Balanced Development and Communication Success Conditions
8 Present a New Paradigm for National Balanced Development – The President's Task to Counter Regional Depopulation, National Balanced Development (Cha Jae-kwon | Pukyong National University)
Why is New Consideration for Balanced Development Necessary?
The Distorted Capital Region Republic: What is the Problem?
The New Paradigm of Balanced Development: Where Should It Head?
How to Implement the New Paradigm of Balanced Development?
On the Threshold of Regional Depopulation, Present a Substantive Vision for Balanced Development
9 Abandon the President's Greatest Enemy, Arrogance – Lessons Learned from Presidential Approval Rating Fluctuations (Han Kyu-seop | Seoul National University)
Why is the Post-Presidency of a President Elected Amidst Blessings Precarious?
Presidential Approval Ratings and Governing Momentum
Why Do Presidential Approval Ratings Decline?
Park Geun-hye Presidential Approval Rating Turning Point
Moon Jae-in Presidential Approval Rating Turning Point
Abandon Arrogance and Exercise Leadership for Integration
Conclusion Towards Politics of Decentralization, Integration, and Coexistence (Kang Won-taek, Son Yeol)
*This text is an AI translation of an original written in Korean. Some translations or nuances may be inaccurate.