Changing Korean Voters 5: The 2012 General and Presidential Elections Through Panel Surveys

2012 General and Presidential Elections: What Determined Victory and Defeat?

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A Collaboration of Top Researchers and the Best Election Survey Methodology

Changing Korean Voters 5: The 2012 General and Presidential Elections Through Panel Surveys analyzes voter patterns in the 2012 general and presidential elections using panel survey data.

To scientifically and empirically grasp the dynamics of Korean elections, the EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center, in collaboration with SBS, JoongAng Ilbo, and Korea Research, has systematically analyzed election processes and outcomes through panel surveys in all national elections held in South Korea since 2006, including the 2006 local elections, the 2007 presidential election, the 2008 general election, the 2010 local elections, and the 2012 general and presidential elections. Panel surveys are virtually the only method that can overcome the limitations of one-off surveys, which only capture voting preferences at a specific point in time. This is because they allow for an accurate understanding of individual voter attitude changes and trends, as well as a sophisticated analysis of the causes of shifting voter sentiments over time. The 2012 Korean Elections Panel Studies (KEPS 2012) utilized the eight-month interval between the general and presidential elections in that year to conduct seven waves of panel surveys from before the general election to immediately after the presidential election, collecting data accordingly.

The EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center formed a research analysis team, a media reporting team, and a survey research team to plan scientific panel surveys, develop questionnaires, and conduct in-depth data analysis. The research analysis team for the 2012 General and Presidential Elections Panel Survey included Lee Nae-young (Team Leader, Director of EAI Public Opinion Analysis Center, Korea University), Kang Won-taek (Seoul National University), Kwon Hyuk-yong (Korea University), Kim Jun-seok (Dongguk University), Park Won-ho (Seoul National University), Park Chan-wook (Seoul National University), Seo Hyun-jin (Sungshin Women's University), Yoon Kwang-il (Sookmyung Women's University), Lee Gon-soo (EAI), Lim Sung-hak (University of Seoul), Jang Seung-jin (Kookmin University), Jung Won-chul (EAI), Jung Han-wool (EAI), and Ji Byung-geun (Chosun University). The media reporting team included Shin Chang-woon (JoongAng Ilbo) and Hyun Kyung-bo (SBS). The survey research team included Kim Chun-seok, Oh Seung-ho, and Yoo Seok-sang (all from Korea Research), totaling 20 participants. The EAI Election Panel Survey Research Team conducted research using data collected from five panel surveys since 2006 and has published the results in the Changing Korean Voters series. Following the first monograph published in 2007, this marks the fifth book, presenting research and analysis of the 2012 general and presidential elections.

Voter Choices in 2012

In the April 19th general election, the Saenuri Party unexpectedly secured a majority of seats. Right before the election campaign began, the dominant prediction was that the Democratic United Party would become the largest party in the National Assembly and even secure a majority of seats, bolstered by a narrative of judgment against the Lee Myung-bak administration. However, the Saenuri Party actively pursued reform efforts centered around interim leader Park Geun-hye, while the Democratic United Party failed to secure a majority due to internal factional conflicts, leadership deficiencies, nomination controversies, discord arising from the electoral alliance with the Unified Progressive Party, and the scandal involving controversial remarks by candidate Kim Yong-min.

In the December 18th presidential election, Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye was elected president with 51.6 percent of the total vote. Although the race was neck-and-neck with Democratic Party candidate Moon Jae-in until the vote count, the results showed Park Geun-hye's victory. Key reasons for Park's decisive win include her campaign's strategy of differentiation from the MB administration and its focus on livelihood-centered policies. Simultaneously, the Democratic Party's internal divisions, lack of effective campaign strategy, the mobilization of the 50-60 age demographic and its increasing proportion in the population, and the failure of candidate unification also played significant roles.

Four Keywords for the 2012 General and Presidential Elections

The Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon, Distrust in Opposition Parties, Generational Divide, Candidate Image

Numerous factors explain the process and outcomes of the 2012 general and presidential elections. This book, Changing Korean Voters 5: The 2012 General and Presidential Elections Through Panel Surveys, organizes these factors into four keywords. First, the so-called "Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon" and the opposition's candidate unification. The underlying cause was the public's deep disappointment with existing political parties and a strong desire for new politics. Paradoxically, however, the repercussions exposed the incompetence and lack of electoral strategy of the main opposition party, the Democratic United Party, and ultimately contributed to the election of candidate Park Geun-hye.

Second, the lack of voter trust in the Democratic United Party. Despite negative public assessments of the incumbent MB administration, the ruling party's candidate, Park Geun-hye, was elected. An interesting theoretical implication from this electoral outcome is the possibility that prospective evaluations may have played a larger role than retrospective evaluations of the ruling party in the previous presidential election. In other words, many citizens did not trust the Democratic United Party as a viable alternative for governing the country.

Third, the generational divide was more acute than in any previous election. While generational divisions emerged as a significant variable in Korean electoral politics starting with the 2002 presidential election, they had weakened after the 2007 presidential election, showed signs of resurgence in the 2010 local elections, and were further intensified during the 2012 election cycle. In the 2012 presidential election, the strong preference of the 50-60 age group for candidate Park Geun-hye, driven by the aging trend and their increased proportion in the population, decisively contributed to her victory.

Fourth, candidate image, rather than a competition of visions and policies, took center stage. Consequently, the influence of policy issues on the election outcome was limited. Instead, the ruling Saenuri Party preemptively raised issues of economic democratization and welfare, traditionally considered progressive agendas, signaling the emergence of distributive politics as a major issue in future Korean politics.

Introduction

In the general introduction, Kim Chun-seok and Yoo Seok-sang of Korea Research, who were responsible for the 2012 General and Presidential Elections Panel Survey, introduce the methodology and operation of this survey.

Chapter 1: Regionalism and Political Preferences

This chapter examines how regionalism, a decisive variable in Korean elections, influenced political preferences and voting choices in the recent presidential election. To this end, regionalism is conceptualized as a socio-psychological characteristic of 'in-group regionalism,' and its influence is examined. The main analytical findings indicate that while favoritism towards in-group regional parties and candidates, and disparagement and bias towards out-group regional parties, were relatively pronounced among individuals from the Honam and Daegu/Gyeongbuk regions, this effect was relatively weakened among individuals from the Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam regions due to the Moon Jae-in effect.

Chapter 2: Ideology and Candidate Choice in the 2012 Presidential Election

Although issues such as economic democratization and welfare appeared to converge between the ruling and opposition parties during the presidential election, making ideological factors seem less prominent, a close analysis of empirical data confirmed that ideology significantly influenced voters' choices. Furthermore, the relationship between candidate support and ideological distance deviated from Downs' theory emphasizing proximity. It was also observed that a considerable number of voters' subjective ideological orientations tended to become more conservative from just before the April general election until immediately after the presidential election.

Chapter 3: The Impact of Generational Factors on the 18th Presidential Election Results

Generational factors can be identified as one of the most influential elements in the 2012 presidential election. First, it was confirmed that the generational gap in voting preferences in the 18th presidential election widened compared to the 17th and even the 16th presidential elections. Notably, there was a significant concentration of support for candidate Park Geun-hye among the 50-60 age group. The chapter also points out that changes in generational composition, specifically the decrease in the proportion of the 20-30 age group and the increase in the proportion of the 50-60 age group, were major factors directly influencing the 18th presidential election.

Chapter 4: The Choices of Undecided Voters

This chapter analyzes the size and types of undecided voters, those without party identification, during the 2012 election cycle, and examines their voting choices and political behavior. The study attempts to redefine the existing concepts of party identification and undecided voters, which were formed in the context of American politics, to fit the realities of Korean politics. It reveals that the undecided voter segment, comprising 27 percent of Korean voters, is not a monolithic group but rather a segment with diverse political inclinations that are not fixed and can be politically activated.

Chapter 5: An Analysis of the Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon

This chapter addresses the Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon, which was the eye of the storm in the 2012 presidential election. It analyzes the demographic characteristics and socioeconomic background of Ahn's supporters and tracks how public favor towards Ahn changed from immediately after the general election until just before the presidential election. Furthermore, it analyzes the shift in voter sentiment among Ahn's supporters in the presidential election after he withdrew his candidacy amidst a deadlock in the opposition's candidate unification negotiations.

Chapter 6: Voters' Policy Preferences and Voting Choices

This chapter analyzes how voters' policy preferences influenced their voting choices in the 18th presidential election. It reveals that voters had a relatively high level of understanding of the policy positions of both major parties and that a significant proportion of voters considered ideology and policy when casting their ballots. The analysis demonstrates that voters' judgments on the next government's policy priorities, as well as their age, ideology, and region of residence, significantly impacted candidate selection, suggesting the presence of rational voting behavior based on issue priority.

Chapter 7: Partisan Dispositions and Perceptions of Candidate Ideological Positioning

This chapter analyzes the relationship between voters' party support and their perceptions of candidates' ideological positions. To this end, it proposes and tests three mechanisms—projection, inference, and adjustment—by which support for a particular party introduces bias when perceiving the ideological positions of that party's candidate and opposing candidates. The analysis confirmed that all three mechanisms, whereby partisanship biases perceptions of candidates' ideological positions, were present. However, as the election campaign intensified and the electoral landscape stabilized, the projection and inference effects were strengthened, while the adjustment effect weakened.

Chapter 8: Media Use and Candidate Choice in the 18th Presidential Election

This chapter analyzes media consumption patterns and their impact on candidate choice in the 18th presidential election. The core question is how the use of progressive or conservative media, or the use of old versus new media, influenced voters' candidate selection. The analysis results indicated, as expected, that voters who consumed traditional media such as newspapers and TV more frequently tended to choose candidate Park Geun-hye, while those who actively used the internet and social media tended to vote for candidate Moon Jae-in. However, the author emphasizes that media use appears to reinforce existing attitudes rather than change them, raising concerns about the potential for media to exacerbate existing generational or ideological divides.

Table of Contents

Foreword

Methodology and Operation of the 2012 General and Presidential Elections Panel Survey | Kim Chun-seok • Yoo Seok-sang

Part I: Persistent Electoral Issues and Phenomena

1. Regionalism and Political Preferences | Yoon Kwang-il

2. Ideology and Candidate Choice in the 2012 Presidential Election | Kang Won-taek

3. The Impact of Generational Factors on the 18th Presidential Election Results: Focusing on Generational Voting Behavior and Compositional Effects | Lee Nae-young • Jung Han-wool

4. The Choices of Undecided Voters: Focusing on the Two Major Elections of 2012 | Park Won-ho

Part II: New Electoral Issues and Phenomena

5. An Analysis of the Ahn Cheol-soo Phenomenon | Kim Jun-seok

6. Voters' Policy Preferences and Voting Choices | Ji Byung-geun

7. Partisan Dispositions and Perceptions of Candidate Ideological Positioning | Jang Seung-jin

8. Media Use and Candidate Choice in the 18th Presidential Election | Seo Hyun-jin

Appendix

Author Biographies

Excerpts from the manuscript are made available for the convenience of readers.