10 Major Tasks for Korean Diplomacy in 2020

"Changes in the Diplomatic Environment in 2020: Complex Shifts in Power Distribution Structures, Global Political Issues, Actors, and Power Resources"

The world underwent a history of upheaval during the first decade of the 21st century. We experienced the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis originating in the U.S., and the Eurozone fiscal crisis. We witnessed the relative decline of traditional developed countries and the rapid rise of emerging economies, and experienced a crisis in global governance. These changes occurred in line with overarching trends represented by globalization, informatization, and democratization. The next decade is also expected to bring about complex changes in power distribution structures, global political issues, actors, and power resources.

"3 Major Challenges for Korean Diplomacy in 2020: U.S.-China Relations, North Korea Issue, Global Governance"

Amidst rapidly changing international dynamics driven by shifts in power distribution structures, the increasing influence of new key players, the prominent emergence of global issues, and the advent of new power dynamics, Korean diplomacy in the 2010s faces three major challenges. First, the task of reconstructing the changing East Asian regional order amidst deepening geopolitical competition and economic interdependence between the U.S. and China. Second, the task of establishing a future Korean Peninsula order by forging a new strategic relationship with the Kim Jong-un regime in North Korea. Third, the task of actively participating as a middle power in the construction of global governance in areas such as trade, finance, development cooperation, energy and resources, and the environment. The new East Asian order in the U.S.-China era and the denuclearization of the Kim Jong-un regime will shape the future of the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century depending on future strategy formulation and implementation, while the challenge of global governance will present significant constraints or opportunities for Korea's future path. To successfully overcome these three challenges, breakthroughs must be made with new strategies of "complex networks" and "coevolution," differing from the past.

《10 Major Tasks for Korean Diplomacy in 2020: Complexity and Coevolution》

The National Security Panel of the East Asia Institute (EAI) has published its fifth monograph, compiling the collective discussions and research results from its monthly meetings held from March 2011 to December 2012. The fifteen co-researchers sought complex responses by broadly dividing the ten major tasks for Korean diplomacy into four clusters: governance, security, economy, and environment.

First, the governance cluster, as Task 1, emphasizes the importance of securing systemic flexibility to peacefully absorb and develop the power transition in East Asia in order to successfully overcome the three major challenges facing Korea. To this end, it proposes the construction of a complex network for East Asian coexistence.

Second, the security cluster, as Task 2, argues that the ROK-U.S. alliance should pursue a strategic, multidimensional, and complex alliance, while balancing it with the ROK-China strategic partnership and expanding its role as an alliance that aids North Korea's normalization as a state. Task 3, ROK-China relations, proposes a strategy of expanding multifaceted networks by viewing relations not merely as a bilateral issue but from the perspective of regional or global interests. Task 4, North Korea policy, presents complex alternatives that consider ROK-U.S., ROK-China, ROK-Japan, and ROK-Russia relations in conjunction from a coevolutionary perspective. Task 5 emphasizes the need to solve a high-level equation that jointly considers fishing and seabed resource development in the complexly intertwined maritime issues of East Asia involving China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries.

Third, the economic cluster presents Tasks 6, 7, and 8 as trade policy, financial policy, and development cooperation policy, respectively. It proposes the establishment of an integrated policy package encompassing FTAs, regional currency systems, and support for less developed countries within the region to practice the given objectives in each issue area while also building a coexistent network in East Asia.

Fourth, the environment cluster notes that climate change leads to the depletion of energy resources, and the use of fossil fuels leads to global warming, thus highlighting the close interrelationship between energy diplomacy and environmental diplomacy. Therefore, it argues that these two issues cannot be separated and that related diplomatic policies must be formulated in a complex manner. Task 9, energy/resource policy, emphasizes the transition to clean energy that can withstand the pressures of international regimes on environment and climate change, and Task 10, environmental policy, proposes the pursuit of building an environmental state while fully considering energy and resource issues.

If Korean diplomacy can navigate the ten major tasks presented across the four clusters over the next decade with new strategies of complexity and coevolution, the future of "Korean Diplomacy 2020" will be bright.

Table of Contents

Foreword

Policy Proposals for 10 Major Tasks for Korean Diplomacy in 2020

Part 1: Governance Cluster

Chapter 1: Constructing a New East Asian Order and the Korean Peninsula _ Complexity and Coevolution | Ha Young-sun & Sohn Yeol

Chapter 2: Changes in U.S.-China Relations and Korea's Future Diplomacy | Chun Jae-sung & Joo Jae-woo

Part 2: Security Cluster

Chapter 3: Asia's Future Security Order and Korea's Response Strategies | Lee Dong-sun

Chapter 4: Changes in China's Politics and Economy and Prospects for Stability | Lee Dong-ryul & Seo Bong-kyo

Chapter 5: North Korea in the Kim Jong-un Era and Coevolutionary/Complex North Korea Policy | Kim Sung-bae & Cho Dong-ho

Chapter 6: Tasks and Prospects for Korean Maritime Policy in the 2010s | Gu Min-kyo

Part 3: Economic Cluster

Chapter 7: The Expansion of Asian FTAs and Korea's Strategy _ Multilateralization of Bilateralism | Kim Chi-wook

Chapter 8: The Changing Global Financial Order and Korea's Choices _ Linking Regional and Global Multilateralism | Lee Yong-wook

Chapter 9: Changes in Development Cooperation Order in the 21st Century and Korea | Lee Seung-joo

Part 4: Environment Cluster

Chapter 10: Constructing a New Global Energy Order and Korea's Resource Cooperation Diplomacy | Kim Yeon-gyu

Chapter 11: International Politics of Environment and Climate Change and Korean Diplomacy | Shin Bum-sik

For the convenience of our readers, parts of the original manuscript are being made public.