Special Report: US-China Nuclear Grand Bargain - Introduction: Seeking a Grand Bargain through US-China Nuclear Arms Control, Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Counter-Terrorism, and North Korean Denuclearization

Amidst fierce competition over strategic core interests between the US and China, a full-scale confrontation in the military and security domain, particularly concerning nuclear weapons, would pose an unbearable threat not only to both nations but to all of humanity.

Currently, China is simultaneously striving to strengthen its global military standing by expanding its nuclear arsenal and developing intelligent warfare capabilities utilizing advanced technology and artificial intelligence (AI), in addition to asserting influence in gray zones such as the South China Sea and addressing sovereign territorial disputes like the Taiwan Strait. The United States is working to thwart China's military modernization, maintain its overwhelming military superiority, and bolster alliances and strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific (hereafter IP) region based on the strategic concept of Integrated Deterrence and technologically advanced military forces. Amidst this, the distinction between conventional and nuclear warfare is becoming blurred in modern conflict due to the characteristics of space warfare and cyber operations, and China's "nuclear entanglement" which blurs the lines between nuclear and conventional capabilities. If low-intensity conflicts using conventional weapons escalate, a nuclear war could erupt due to miscalculation during the initial stages of competition for initiative.

In a situation of clear nuclear imbalance between the US and China, China is pursuing the expansion of its nuclear military power. If this trend continues, it will lead to serious problems such as the risk of nuclear war due to miscalculation between the two countries, security and military confrontation in the IP region based on China's military confidence, increased risk of nuclear proliferation in the IP region, and the resulting exacerbation of nuclear security and safety issues. Both the US and China must accept the necessity of preemptive security cooperation, considering the costs of nuclear buildup, the increased instability in the IP region, and the risks of nuclear war. In particular, the possibility of catastrophe increases when new, unpredictable technologies combine with nuclear competition. With advancements in AI, space power, and cyber technology, an era of "deterrence by denial," where one side can neutralize the other through highly sophisticated military intelligence and precision strikes, is becoming a reality. The hypotheses of "mutual vulnerability" and "Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD)" based on the possession of second-strike capability are collapsing, and the future of US-China military competition is becoming uncertain (Figure 1).

[Figure 1] Future Scenarios of US-China Nuclear Competition and the 4 Grand Bargain Initiatives and Roadmap for US-China Cooperation

While an acceleration of strategic competition between the US and China in the short term is difficult to avoid, a turning point for a new chapter in history could be created by the decisions of both leaderships when the military conditions are met for China's nuclear buildup to counterbalance America's unilateral superiority, coupled with a slowdown in US-China economic growth and the emergence of domestic political atmospheres that foster nationalistic sentiments like "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" or "America First" to decline.

The four initiatives proposed in this study, as depicted in [Figure 1], are designed to prevent catastrophic scenarios while satisfying the interests of both nations amidst their conflicting national interests. Broad security cooperation will lay the foundation for US-China collaboration, making a comprehensive grand bargain and a new détente possible. Detailed proposals for the four initiatives will be discussed in each report of this special report series.

In 1972, the United States and China achieved cooperation by pursuing mutual recognition, economic ties, and comprehensive mutual interests, while addressing issues such as Taiwan and security on the Korean Peninsula. On the foundation of mutual cooperation stemming from core security interests, the US and China can move towards a grand bargain encompassing economy, politics, and society. In doing so, the US and China will begin efforts to reset their overall political relationship, acknowledging each other's systems and coexisting and co-prospering, and will be able to join forces to establish the new global governance demanded by the international community. ■

■ Ha Young-sunChairman, East Asia Institute; Professor Emeritus, Seoul National University.

■ Sohn YeolPresident, East Asia Institute; Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University.

■ Chun Jai-sungDirector, National Security Research Center, East Asia Institute; Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University.

■ Kim Yang-gyuSenior Research Fellow, East Asia Institute; Lecturer, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University.

■ Responsible Editor:Park Ji-soo, EAI Researcher

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) | jspark@eai.or.kr