[EAI Presidential Election Panel Survey] VII. Partisan Polarization: What Were the Attitudes of Major Party Supporters in an 'Unlikeable Election'?

The 20th presidential election was conducted amidst significant criticism, with various allegations raised against the candidates of the two major parties during the campaign. Domestic and international media outlets labeled it an “unlikeable election” or a choice of the “lesser evil” (Reuter 2022; The Korea Herald 2021; Yonhap News 2022). Notably, despite these widespread negative assessments, voters with partisan preferences for the two major parties showed steadfast support for their preferred parties and candidates. This report aims to examine the patterns and characteristics of partisan preferences among voters during the 20th presidential election.

1. Favorability Towards the Two Major Parties and Candidates

① Overall Voters

[Table 1] below presents the average favorability ratings for the two major parties and their respective candidates. Respondents rated their favorability on a scale from 0 (most unfavorable) to 10 (most favorable). The average scores for all subjects were below 5. While there were no significant differences between the two parties and the two candidates, the average scores for the candidates were slightly higher than those for the parties.

[Table 1] Favorability Towards the Two Major Parties and Candidates: Mean and Standard Deviation

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[Figure 1] presents the distribution of favorability ratings for the two parties and candidates as histograms. Reflecting the prevalent negative sentiments such as dislike or choosing the lesser evil in this election, the proportion of respondents with the most unfavorable attitudes was highest for all subjects. The percentage of respondents holding the most unfavorable sentiment towards the Democratic Party and the People Power Party were 21.04% and 24.25%, respectively. For candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, these percentages were 25.72% and 25.07%. The distribution of favorability showed a very similar pattern for all subjects.

[Figure 1] Distribution of Favorability Towards the Two Major Parties and Candidates

② By Respondent's Party Affiliation

[Table 2] analyzes the emotional attitudes towards the four subjects, categorized by the respondent's party affiliation. Despite the similar average values for the two parties and the two candidates overall, significant differences were observed within each group based on party preference. Respondents supporting either of the two major parties showed high favorability towards their preferred party and candidate, while displaying considerably lower average scores for the opposing party and candidate. Thus, it was confirmed that the difference between positive sentiment towards one's own party and negative sentiment towards the opposing party is substantial among supporters of both major parties. It is important to note that partisan differences within attitudes towards each subject are more pronounced than the overall negative sentiment towards the two parties and candidates.

[Table 2] Favorability Towards the Two Major Parties and Candidates: By Respondent's Party Affiliation

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[Figure 2] and [Figure 3] present histograms of favorability toward the two parties and two candidates, categorized by respondents' party preference. As observed in [Figure 1], the proportion of the most negative attitudes toward both parties and candidates was highest. However, [Figure 2] and [Figure 3], which illustrate this by party support, revealed significant differences between supporters of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party. Looking at [Figure 2-1] and [Figure 3-1], which focus on favorability toward the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung, the proportion of negative attitudes toward the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung markedly decreased when only Democratic Party supporters were isolated. Conversely, among People Power Party supporters, the proportion of such negative attitudes significantly increased. In contrast, for the histograms of favorability toward the People Power Party and Yoon Suk-yeol, [Figure 2-2] and [Figure 3-2], negative attitudes were almost non-existent among People Power Party supporters, while they prominently increased among Democratic Party supporters. Therefore, it can be inferred that the negative sentiments toward the two parties and two candidates shown in [Figure 1] originated from respondents supporting the opposing party. In summary, among partisan voters, a significant affective polarization (Iyengar et al. 2012) was observed, characterized by a large gap between positive sentiment toward their own party and negative sentiment toward the opposing party; for these voters, this 'dislike' was directed solely at the opposing party.

[Figure 2] Favorability Distribution for Two Parties: By Respondent's Party Support

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[Figure 3] Favorability Distribution for Two Candidates: By Respondent's Party Support

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2. Satisfaction with Democracy and Favorability Toward Parties and Candidates

① Satisfaction with Democracy

How satisfied are respondents with the current state of democracy in South Korea? And how is this satisfaction related to partisan attitudes? Satisfaction with democracy (Anderson and Guillory 1997; Anderson et al. 2005) can be understood as a component of democratic support. Respondents chose from a scale of 0 ('not at all satisfied') to 10 ('entirely satisfied'), with 5 being 'neutral.' [Figure 4], which presents the results, shows that the proportion of respondents selecting 'neutral' was highest at 30.21%, with the proportion generally decreasing as responses moved toward the extreme ends of the scale.

[Figure 4] Distribution of Satisfaction with Democracy

Meanwhile, [Figure 5], which illustrates respondents' satisfaction with democracy categorized by party support, shows no significant differences across supporter groups. In each group, 'neutral' was the most frequent response, and the pattern of decreasing proportions toward scores of 0 and 10 was consistently observed across all groups. This pattern was similar to [Figure 4], which analyzed all respondents. Therefore, it is concluded that there are no discernible differences in perceptions and evaluations of the current operation of South Korean democracy based on party preference.

[Figure 5] Distribution of Satisfaction with Democracy: By Respondent's Party Support

② Satisfaction with Democracy and Favorability Toward Major Parties and Candidates

[Figure 6] and [Figure 7] present intriguing findings. Despite the absence of significant differences in satisfaction with democracy based on party preference, respondents supporting the two major parties tend to strongly associate their satisfaction with democracy with positive attitudes toward their own party and candidate. In [Figure 6-1], Democratic Party supporters show high satisfaction with democracy and, concurrently, high favorability toward the Democratic Party. In contrast, People Power Party supporters exhibit high satisfaction with democracy but low favorability toward the Democratic Party. Conversely, in [Figure 6-2], People Power Party supporters demonstrate high satisfaction with democracy and high favorability toward the People Power Party, while Democratic Party supporters show high satisfaction but negative attitudes toward the People Power Party.

[Figure 6] Satisfaction with Democracy and Party Favorability

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[Figure 7] Satisfaction with Democracy and Candidate Favorability

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This pattern is also evident in [Figure 7]. In [Figure 7-1], Democratic Party supporters show high satisfaction with democracy and, concurrently, high favorability toward Lee Jae-myung. In contrast, People Power Party supporters who are highly satisfied with democracy exhibit low favorability toward Lee Jae-myung. Conversely, in [Figure 7-2], People Power Party supporters demonstrate high satisfaction with democracy and high favorability toward Yoon Suk-yeol, while Democratic Party supporters show high satisfaction but negative attitudes toward Yoon Suk-yeol.

In conclusion, [Figure 6] and [Figure 7] reveal that while there are no partisan differences in the evaluation or satisfaction with the current operation of South Korean democracy, partisan voters attribute their satisfaction with democracy differently. Specifically, partisan voters associate their positive sentiment toward their own party and negative sentiment toward the opposing party with their satisfaction with democracy, indicating that behind the seemingly uniform satisfaction with democracy lie differing partisan considerations. These findings illuminate the underlying dynamics of the recent presidential election, often characterized as an 'election of dislike.' Both major parties' candidates were embroiled in scandals during the campaign, leading to a superficial impression of widespread dislike toward both camps. However, the actual dislike was primarily directed by supporters of one party toward the opposing party. ■

References

Anderson, Christopher J. and Christine A. Guillory. 1997. “Political Institutions and Satisfaction with Democracy: A Cross-National Analysis of Consensus and Majoritarian Systems.” American Political Science Review 91(1): 66-81.

Anderson, Christopher J., Andre Blais, Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, and Ola Listhaug. 2005. Losers’ Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy. Oxford University Press.

Iyengar, Shanto, Gaurav Sood, and Yphtach Lelkes. 2012. “Affect, Not Ideology: Social Identity Perspective on Polarization.” Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3): 405-431.

Reuters. 2022. “S.Korean Voters Hold Noses as Rivals Land Low Blows in 'Unlikeable Election.'https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/skorean-voters-hold-noses-rivals-land-low-blows-unlikeable-election-2022-02-03/

The Korea Herald. 2021. “‘Lesser Evil’? Disapproval of Presidential Candidates Rises.http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211024000193

Yonhap News. 2022. “Record-Breaking Unlikeable Election Leads to Record-Breaking Close Contest... 20th Presidential Election Shatters Records.https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20220310078300001?input=1195m

■ Author: Gil Jeong-ah_Research Professor, Institute for Government Research, Korea University. Teaches voter political attitudes, Korean politics, and quantitative analysis. Holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Seoul National University's Department of Political Science and International Relations. Primary research interests include voter political attitudes, partisan polarization, and political accountability in representative democracy. Has published articles in numerous journals, including Social Science Research, Korean Political Science Review, Korean Association of Party Studies Review, and Legislative Studies.

■ Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun_EAI Research Fellow

Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr