[EAI Presidential Election Panel Survey] ① The Effect of Candidate Unification: Did the Choice of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters Determine the Presidential Winner?

1. Introduction

The unification of People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol and People's Party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, which was "agreed upon abruptly" in the early morning of March 3rd, six days before the 20th presidential election and one day before early voting, was the most significant variable that "suddenly emerged" at the end of the election. Due to the candidate unification or Ahn Cheol-soo's withdrawal from the race, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters lost the opportunity to vote for the candidate they supported and were forced to either give up voting or choose another candidate. In a situation where the approval rating difference between candidate Lee Jae-myung and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol was very close, the presidential winner could have been determined by the effect of the candidate unification.

It was difficult to predict the presidential winner based on the final opinion polls conducted six days before the election. Candidate Yoon Suk-yeol did not lose the top spot in any poll, but the approval rating gap with candidate Lee Jae-myung was not large. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo had a low probability of winning independently but was found to have secured 7-9% of the support.

[Table 1] Opinion Polls on Preferred Candidates Announced on March 2, 2022

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Unit: %

In this situation, there were various "discussions and debates" about the choice of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters and the effect of candidate unification.[1]Speculations included that Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters would give up voting due to disappointment and backlash over the "humiliating" and "opaque" unification, switch their support to candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, or that the unification would lead to increased mobilization and voter turnout among Democratic Party supporters who felt a sense of crisis.

The election result was a narrow victory for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol by a margin of 0.73%p. Would Yoon Suk-yeol's victory have been possible without the candidate unification? To what extent did the candidate unification contribute to Yoon Suk-yeol's victory? This report analyzed these questions using panel survey data collected before and after the election.

2. Characteristics of Ahn Cheol-soo's Supporters

[Table 2] shows the characteristics of supporters for each candidate in the pre-election survey (conducted from January 12-15, 2022).[2]The characteristics of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters were found to be higher among women (14.4%) than men (11.0%), by age group, among 22-33 year olds (17.8%) and 33-43 year olds (17.0%), residents of Seoul (13.5%), Gangwon/Jeju (15.2%), and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam (13.7%), white-collar workers (14.6%) and students (14.8%), and households with an income of 4-5 million KRW (18.2%). Among those with a centrist political ideology, 16.2% supported candidate Ahn Cheol-soo, and among undecided voters, 22.9% supported him. Additionally, the average political ideology score (strong progressive=0 to strong conservative=10) of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters was 5.41, which falls between the average scores of Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters (5.57) and Lee Jae-myung's supporters (4.85), indicating a center-right tendency.

[Table 3] shows the preferences of supporters for each candidate regarding the main issues of this presidential election. Respondents chose from a scale of 0 (strongly disagree) to 10 (strongly agree) for each survey question, and the numbers in the table represent the average response.

Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters are positioned between Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters and Lee Jae-myung's supporters on the main issues of this presidential election.

Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters generally agree with the "judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration" (5.44), but not as strongly as Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters (7.36). Conversely, Lee Jae-myung's supporters generally disagree with the judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration (2.25). Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters agree that "comprehensive real estate holding tax is excessive" (5.53), but not as strongly as Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters (7.16). Lee Jae-myung's supporters disagree that the comprehensive real estate holding tax is excessive (4.23). Regarding "the government's quarantine measures for the COVID-19 pandemic," Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters generally disagree (3.93), and Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters also disagree to a similar extent (3.41). In contrast, Lee Jae-myung's supporters evaluate the government's quarantine measures for the COVID-19 pandemic as successful (7.35). Regarding "family issues or work-related incidents involving candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol," Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters are the most critical, strongly agreeing (7.48) that these issues influenced their candidate choice. The impact of these issues on Lee Jae-myung's and Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters appears to be relatively weaker compared to Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters.

In summary, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters share the same stance as Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters in agreeing with the judgment of the Moon Jae-in administration, agreeing that the comprehensive real estate holding tax is excessive, and agreeing that the government's response to the COVID-19 pandemic was not successful; however, the intensity of their agreement or disagreement is not as strong as that of Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters.

[Table 2] (Pre-election Survey) Candidate to Vote For If the Presidential Election Were Tomorrow

[Table 3] (Pre-election Survey) Agreement/Disagreement on Issues by Preferred Candidate (Average Score)

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3. Choice of Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters Due to Candidate Unification

Following the candidate unification, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters could not vote for Ahn Cheol-soo and were thus compelled to consider abstention or voting for other candidates. Post-election surveys indicate that among the 12.7% of respondents who stated they supported Ahn Cheol-soo prior to the election, 6.72% abstained from voting[4], 57.46% chose Yoon Suk-yeol, and 31.34% chose Lee Jae-myung.

[Table 4] (Post-election Survey) Final Voting Choices of Ahn Cheol-soo Supporters

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[Table 5] presents the average scores, ranging from strong disagreement (=0) to strong agreement (=10), on key issues for respondents who supported Lee Jae-myung or Yoon Suk-yeol among Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters. The top row shows the results from the pre-election survey for each issue, and the bottom row shows the results from the post-election survey.

In the pre-election survey, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters were dispersed across a relatively wide spectrum of opinions on key issues, from agreement to disagreement. For instance, regarding the issue of a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration, the 42 respondents who ultimately voted for Lee Jae-myung generally disagreed with the referendum (4.38) in the pre-election survey, whereas the 77 respondents who voted for Yoon Suk-yeol agreed with it (6.51). Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters comprised individuals who both agreed and disagreed with the 'referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration,' and their opinions appear to have diverged based on this issue after the candidate unification. The same pattern is observed for the comprehensive real estate holding tax and the government's COVID-19 quarantine measures.

In summary, Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters, who were initially dispersed across a relatively broad spectrum, appear to have diverged into voting for Yoon Suk-yeol or Lee Jae-myung based on their degree of agreement with the referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration, their agreement with the proposition that the comprehensive real estate holding tax is excessive, and their critical stance on COVID-19 quarantine measures.

[Table 6] shows the reasons for the voting choices of Ahn Cheol-soo's supporters who voted for Yoon Suk-yeol or Lee Jae-myung. For Yoon Suk-yeol voters, the reasons for their choice were 'Other' (27.27%), 'Candidate's Political Party' (22.08%), and 'Candidate's Likelihood of Winning' (14.29%). In contrast, for Lee Jae-myung voters, the reasons were 'Candidate's Ability and Experience' (35.71%), 'Candidate's Pledges' (21.43%), and 'Other' (21.43%). Lee Jae-myung voters made their decisions based on the 'candidate,' while Yoon Suk-yeol voters focused on the 'party' and 'election victory.'

[Table 5] (Pre- and Post-election Surveys) Agreement-Disagreement on Issues by Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol Voters (Average Scores)

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[Table 6] (Post-election survey) Reasons for voting choice of Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol voters (%)

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[Table 7] (Post-election survey) Favorability ratings of politicians (average score) of Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol voters

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According to [Table 7], the favorability ranking of politicians among Yoon Suk-yeol voters is Ahn Chee-chong (7.04) - Yoon Suk-yeol (6.24) - Moon Jae-in (3.22) - Lee Jae-myung (2.49), and among Lee Jae-myung voters, it is Lee Jae-myung (5.38) - Moon Jae-in (5.26) - Ahn Chee-chong (4.52) - Yoon Suk-yeol (2.21). In the case of Yoon Suk-yeol voters, the most favorable politician was 'Ahn Chee-chong,' but since they could not vote for Ahn Chee-chong due to the candidate consolidation, it appears natural for their votes to shift to 'Yoon Suk-yeol,' who has the next highest preference. In the case of Lee Jae-myung voters, since the preference for 'Lee Jae-myung' is the highest, voting for Lee Jae-myung is also a natural vote shift (however, it is difficult to explain why Ahn Chee-chong's preference among Ahn Chee-chong supporters is ranked third, lower than Lee Jae-myung or Moon Jae-in).

4. Effect of Candidate Consolidation

Did this division of votes among Ahn Chee-chong supporters ultimately determine Yoon Suk-yeol's victory? [Table 8] shows the distribution of respondents who voted for each candidate in the post-election survey. Respondents who stated they voted for Lee Jae-myung accounted for 46.65%, and those who voted for Yoon Suk-yeol accounted for 49.58%. Among these, 42 respondents, who indicated support for Ahn Chee-chong in the pre-election survey but actually voted for Lee Jae-myung after consolidation, constituted 8.48% of Lee Jae-myung voters, while 77 respondents voted for Yoon Suk-yeol, constituting 14.64% of Yoon Suk-yeol voters. The proportion of Ahn Chee-chong supporters' votes within Yoon Suk-yeol's vote share is larger than that within Lee Jae-myung's vote share. This is the result of 57.46% of Ahn Chee-chong supporters' votes shifting to Yoon Suk-yeol and 31.34% shifting to Lee Jae-myung.

[Table 8] (Post-election Survey) Proportion of Ahn Chee-chong Supporters among Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol Voters

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Let us examine the effect of vote division due to candidate consolidation in a slightly different way. Six days before the election, various polls showed Ahn Chee-chong's support rate between 7.1% and 9%. If these voters had divided as in this study, with 31.34% for Lee Jae-myung and 57.46% for Yoon Suk-yeol, then for Lee Jae-myung, there would have been a minimum of 2.23%p (31.34% of 7.1%) to a maximum of 2.82%p (31.34% of 9%) of Ahn Chee-chong's votes transferred, and for Yoon Suk-yeol, a minimum of 4.08%p (57.46% of 7.1%) to a maximum of 5.17%p (57.46% of 9%). Considering the candidate consolidation, Yoon Suk-yeol appears to have benefited from a 'differential vote transfer effect' from Ahn Chee-chong supporters, ranging from a minimum of +1.26%p (minimum transferred votes to Yoon Suk-yeol of 4.08% - maximum transferred votes to Lee Jae-myung of 2.82%) to a maximum of +2.94%p (maximum transferred votes to Yoon Suk-yeol of 5.17% - minimum transferred votes to Lee Jae-myung of 2.23%). Given that Yoon Suk-yeol won by a margin of 0.73%p, this differential transfer of Ahn Chee-chong supporters' votes to Yoon Suk-yeol, ranging from 1.26%p to 2.94%p, can be said to have determined Yoon Suk-yeol's victory.

5. Evaluation of Candidate Consolidation

Ahn Chee-chong advocated for candidate consolidation for a 'better' change of government. There was also an argument to secure the necessary governing resources for a government with a parliamentary majority by achieving an 'overwhelming' election victory through candidate consolidation. Nevertheless, Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly won by the smallest margin in history. Without candidate consolidation, Yoon Suk-yeol would not have achieved an 'overwhelming' election victory, nor a 'better' change of government. The scale of 'voter apathy' or 'reflexive vote mobilization towards the Democratic Party' among Yoon Suk-yeol supporters, which they had worried about, also appears to have been not very large. Ahn Chee-chong supporters divided their votes between Yoon Suk-yeol and Lee Jae-myung at a ratio of 57 to 31, based on their issue preferences and favorability towards candidates, and the result was sufficient to create a 0.73%p difference. In the 18th presidential election in 2012, the vote division between Moon Jae-in and Ahn Chee-chong was at a ratio of 61 to 39 for Moon Jae-in and Park Geun-hye, respectively, but the consolidation between Yoon Suk-yeol and Ahn Chee-chong resulted in a vote division ratio of 57 to 31, indicating a wider range of division than the 2012 consolidation. Although more precise analysis is needed, it would not be an exaggeration to evaluate the Yoon Suk-yeol-Ahn Chee-chong consolidation as the most dramatic in terms of effect among candidate consolidations in past elections. Of course, criticisms regarding the method and process of consolidation are also valid. ■[5] In contrast, the Yoon Suk-yeol-Ahn Chee-chong consolidation resulted in a vote division ratio of 57 to 31, indicating a wider range of division than the 2012 consolidation. Although more precise analysis is needed, it would not be an exaggeration to evaluate the Yoon Suk-yeol-Ahn Chee-chong consolidation as the most dramatic in terms of effect among candidate consolidations in past elections. Of course, criticisms regarding the method and process of consolidation are also valid. ■

[1] For a discussion on this, please refer to "Opinion: Choi Jun-won's Reasonable Choice - 'Humiliating' Opposition Consolidation Process, I Couldn't Vote for Yoon Despite Being an Ahn Supporter" in the *JoongAng Ilbo*, March 18, 2022.https://www.joongang.co.kr/article/25056390 Please refer to it.

[2]According to a survey conducted by Korea Gallup from January 11-13, Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate was 17%. A survey by KSOI from January 14-15 showed Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate at 9.6%, and Realmeter's survey for the second week of January showed Ahn Cheol-soo's support rate at 12.9%.

[3] Here, the F value represents the distribution ratio of agreement from 0 (disagree) to 10 (agree), and the p-value indicates whether the distribution ratio of responses from the groups for analysis (in this case, supporters of Lee Jae-myung, Yoon Suk-yeol, and Ahn Cheol-soo) shows a statistically significant difference. Generally, if this value is less than 0.05, it is interpreted as having statistical significance.

[4] This is the sum of 4.62% for 'did not vote' and 2.31% for 'wanted to vote but could not due to circumstances'.

[5] For a more detailed analysis, please refer to Ryu Jae-seong. 2013. “An Cheol-soo Supporters’ Choices” in *Analysis of the 2012 Presidential Election*. Nanam.

■ Author: Ryu Jae-seong_Current Vice President of the Korean Political Science Association, Former President of the Korean Association of Political Parties, Professor at the Department of International and Area Studies, Keimyung University, Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Texas at Austin. His research areas include political parties and elections, American politics, and political psychology. Recent publications include "An Analytical Essay on Downs' P: 'Prospect of Success' and 'Memory of Failure'" (2021), "Types and Motivations of Split Voting: Analysis of the 20th General Election" (2020), "Voter Types and Characteristics: Party Voters, Cross-Pressured Voters, Intermittent Voters, Habitual Non-Voters" (2020), and "How Does Framing Activate or Suppress Ideological Orientation?" (2019).

■ Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun_EAI Researcher

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