[EAI Special Report] The Future and Vision of the ROK-US Alliance

Editor's Note

The ROK-US alliance in the 21st century faces significant environmental changes due to the readjustment of American hegemony and the intensification of US-China strategic competition. Recognizing the urgent need to establish a vision for the ROK-US alliance, EAI conducted a study titled “The Future and Vision of the ROK-US Alliance” in 2020. This study aimed to assess and analyze the rapidly changing security landscape and to develop concrete alternatives for the adjustment and role of the ROK-US alliance for global governance. The study included contributions from Professor Jaesung Lee, Director of the Center for National Security Studies at EAI and Professor at Seoul National University; Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute; Lee Sang-hyun, Senior Research Fellow at the Sejong Institute; and Scott Snyder, Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. This Special Report is the result of the “Future and Vision of the ROK-US Alliance” study, with the table of contents as follows:

1. Foreword: The Role of the Future ROK-US Alliance
2. Asia and the World by 2030
3. The Status of the ROK-US Alliance
4. Vision and Agenda for the ROK-US Alliance
5. Establishing Harmonious China Strategy between ROK and US
6. Forming an Asian Regional Security Network
7. Efforts to Resolve the North Korean Nuclear Issue
8. Enhancing Future Security Cooperation
9. Securing Domestic Foundations for Alliance Maintenance
10. Rebuilding the Liberal Order and Developing Economic Cooperation
11. Strengthening Future-Oriented Alliance Cooperation Amidst the Pandemic Era
12. Advancing Technological Capabilities and Security Cooperation
13. Proposals for Building a Complex Network Alliance

Executive Summary

The ROK-US alliance aims not only to ensure peace and security on the Korean Peninsula but also to contribute to leading the future liberal world order. South Korea has experienced remarkable growth under the US-led international order, and the ROK-US alliance has contributed to South Korea's security, economic prosperity, democratization, and the US role in maintaining the liberal world order. Currently, the ROK-US alliance faces numerous challenges amidst a rapidly changing international environment and the escalating geopolitical competition between the US and China.

Since the establishment of the ROK-US alliance, South Korea has grown into a middle power, ranking among the world's top ten wealthiest democracies, and is now capable of contributing to regional stability and problem-solving on a global scale. The ROK-US alliance must evolve into a complex network alliance that addresses geopolitical challenges on the Korean Peninsula and in Asia, as well as new issues from a future-oriented perspective.

As technologically democratic nations, South Korea and the United States must redouble their efforts to build a knowledge alliance. They should focus on finding solutions to complex global challenges, including climate change, energy and resource scarcity, and threats from environmental and bioterrorism. Furthermore, the two countries must promote democracy, human rights, and high standards of governance as shared interests of the alliance to improve regional and global order. South Korea and the United States should contribute to new formations of like-minded countries, such as the D-10 summit of democracies, and build upon existing institutions like the World Trade Organization (WTO) to advance the alliance relationship. The focus should be on how to preserve and adapt democratic governance and market economies amidst great power competition surrounding digital age, technology, and innovation.

Although the ROK-US alliance was initially solidified based on the shared sacrifices during the Korean War, this historical foundation has gradually weakened over time. Both nations must establish new and robust grounds for cooperation to ensure a lasting alliance. The foundation for a future-oriented ROK-US alliance will be rooted in shared values, while the alliance will develop into a partnership through future-oriented technological cooperation. The ROK-US alliance is presented with new opportunities for cooperation in a wide range of areas, from combating pandemics and space exploration to developing and applying new 5G standards in the technology sector.

The vision for the ROK-US alliance must address a broad range of short-term issues while striving to align the interests of both nations in the long term. A resilient and future-oriented alliance will be based on close consultations, effective cooperation on issues of mutual significance, and diplomatic agility to adapt to the changes witnessed within both democracies. Key policy recommendations are as follows:

1. The Biden administration and the Moon Jae-in administration should promptly announce their commitment to strengthening and expanding the ROK-US alliance. The ROK and the US should consider policies that declare a transition to a value-sharing and responsibility-sharing alliance, particularly in terms of cost-sharing. The US and South Korea should conclude a temporary special measures agreement, enhance support for the transition of wartime operational control based on capabilities, advance discussions on existing extended deterrence, establish regular training and exercise schedules, expand naval and maritime cooperation, and hold strategic dialogues to discuss the environment and challenges facing the alliance after the North Korean threat has subsided.

2. To build peace on the Korean Peninsula, the South Korean government must maintain consistency in its North Korea policy while simultaneously pursuing strategic agreement with the United States in North Korean denuclearization negotiations. It is necessary to harmonize South Korea's diplomatic efforts and the North Korea policies of neighboring countries so that US-China strategic competition does not become an obstacle to resolving the North Korean issue. The US should support the South Korean government's efforts based on de-escalation and confidence-building measures with North Korea. Considering the continuous improvement in North Korea's missile development, the US should discuss the future of missile defense and extended deterrence with South Korea and Japan.

3. The United States and South Korea must establish a normative framework and a broad international security cooperation system to maintain peace and prosperity in Northeast Asia. Adopting a rules-based approach to managing major power competition is essential to prevent the region and its allies from resorting to confrontational and unilateral actions. The US and South Korea must design and implement a cooperative response system to counter China's retaliation, particularly its use of coercive geopolitical means. The US currently holds a military advantage over China. Efforts should be made to reduce normative differences with China while maintaining the current balance of power, and to promote medium- to long-term US-China cooperation in areas such as non-proliferation and climate change.

4. The hub-and-spoke alliance system in Asia has functioned well to date, and allies may supplement it through separate collective networks or small multilateral cooperation bodies upon further consultation. It is important for the US and its Asian allies to cooperate to appropriately allocate roles among allies and partners and to pursue a multi-dimensional strategy toward China. The Biden administration's regional strategy is expected to focus on connecting allies and friends through network-based partnerships. Trilateral security cooperation among the ROK, the US, and Japan is a crucial agenda item in the Biden administration's Asia policy, and the normalization of ROK-Japan relations is necessary to realize this.

5. South Korea and the United States must expand economic cooperation from traditional trade and investment areas to new domains such as the digital economy, energy, environment, and development cooperation. The two countries should pursue regional cooperation amidst close mutual collaboration and build linkages between the Indo-Pacific Strategy and the New Southern Policy. Furthermore, it is crucial for the ROK and the US to exert influence on existing and emerging international institutions. Knowledge should be utilized to tackle complex issues like climate change, norms and codes of conduct should be established for the use of advanced technologies in the digital age, and scientists and scholars should be nurtured to meet future needs. The two countries should expand and strengthen cooperation in global health, while promoting cooperation in the eco-friendly energy sector, including limiting fossil fuel use, reducing carbon emissions, expanding renewable energy, and utilizing advanced nuclear power.

Author Biographies

■ Jaesung Lee_ Director of the Center for National Security Studies at EAI and Professor at Seoul National University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University and has served as a policy advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Unification. His main research areas include international political theory, international relations history, and security studies. His major works include "Sovereignty and International Politics: The Imperial Character of the Modern Sovereign State System," "Northeast Asian International Political Theory: The International Politics of Imperfect Sovereign States," "Is Politics Moral?: The Transcendent International Political Thought of Reinhold Niebuhr," "Is Politics Moral?", and "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory."

■ Patrick M. Cronin_ Asia-Pacific Security Chair at the Hudson Institute in the United States. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Oxford. He has served as Director of Research at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Executive Director of the Military Conflict Database, and Senior Vice President and Director of Research at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). His main research areas include US Indo-Pacific strategy, US-China competition, Korean Peninsula security issues, and alliances and cooperation. His major works include “All the Japanese Prime Minister's Course Corrections” (2020).

■ Sang-hyun Lee_ Senior Research Fellow at the Security Strategy Research Office of the Sejong Institute. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He has served as Director of Policy Planning at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, a researcher at the Institute for Korean Relations, and a researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses. His main research areas include international security, ROK-US relations, theories of war and conflict, regional conflicts, and military security. His major works include "US-China Hegemonic Competition and the Korean Peninsula" (2020, co-authored, forthcoming), "The Trump Administration's Nuclear Policy: Implications for the International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Regime and the North Korean Nuclear Issue" (2019), and "Understanding Contemporary ROK-US Relations" (2019, co-authored).

■ Scott A. Snyder_ Director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States. He holds a Master's degree in Regional Studies from Harvard University's East Asian Program and was a Thomas G. Watson Fellow at Yonsei University. He was responsible for the Asia Foundation's International Relations Program, where he established the Korea Economic Institute and served as the Asia Foundation's Country Representative in Korea. His main research areas include East Asian security, North Korea policy, and ROK-US relations. His major works include "South Korea at the Crossroads: Autonomy and Alliance in an Era of Rival Powers(2018), and "The Japan-South Korea Identity Clash: East Asian Security and the United States(2015, co-authored).

■ Managed and Edited by: Kim Seyoung, EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: +82-2-2277-1683 (ext. 208) sykim@eai.or.kr

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