[EAI Special Report] A New North Korea Policy Proposal: Towards the Evolution of the Trust Process

2013 EAI Special Report_Beyond Trustpolitik on the Korean Peninsula

Author

Ha Young-sun Chairman of the East Asia Institute (EAI). Professor Emeritus at Seoul National University. He graduated from the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University and obtained a Master's degree in Political Science from the same university. He received a Ph.D. in International Politics from the University of Washington for his research on North Korea's nuclear issue. He has served as a Visiting Fellow at Princeton University's Center for International Studies, a Visiting Fellow at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University, Director of the Institute for International Affairs at Seoul National University, Director of the Center for American Studies, and President of the Korean Peace Studies Association. He wrote a column titled "Ha Young-sun's Column" for The Chosun Ilbo and The JoongAng Ilbo for seven years and has led research groups such as the Study Group on International Relations, the Study Group on Nuclear Proliferation, the Research Group on Global Politics of Information, and the East Asia Institute Forum. His books and edited volumes include "10 Major Tasks for South Korean Diplomacy in 2020: Complexity and Resonance," "A History of the Formation of Social Science Concepts in Modern Korea 2," "Theories of Complex Global Politics: Strategy, Principles, and a New Order," "Ha Young-sun's International Politics Columns 1991-2011," "The Young People in History," "Crisis and Complexity: The World Order After the Economic Crisis," "A 12-Hour Story of Unification," "Networked World Politics," "North Korea 2032: A Resonance Strategy for Advancement," "New Alliances in the 21st Century: From Cold War to Complexity," "A History of the Formation of Social Science Concepts in Modern Korea," "East Asian Community: Myth and Reality," "Transforming World Politics," "Networked Knowledge State," "Grand Strategy for South Korean Diplomacy in the 21st Century: Building a Networked State," "Peace Studies in the 21st Century," "Internationalization and Globalization," "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons and the World Order," and "War and Peace on the Korean Peninsula."

Chun Yung-sun Professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University. He graduated from the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University and obtained a Ph.D. in Political Science from Northwestern University in the United States. He previously served as an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Sookmyung Women's University. He is currently the Director of the Center for Asian Security Studies at the East Asia Institute. His recent publications include "Is Politics Moral?", "East Asian International Politics: From History to Theory," and articles such as "A Critical Review of Postmodernism and Realism on Constructivist International Relations Theory," "A Theoretical Study on the Emergence of International Politics in Europe," and "The Rise of Great Powers and Response Mechanisms: Theoretical Analysis and European Cases."

Park Won-gon Professor at the Department of International Studies, Handong Global University. He graduated from Southwest Baptist University in the United States, obtained a Master's degree from Boston College, and a Ph.D. in International Politics from Seoul National University. He has served as Director of the External Cooperation Division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), Research Fellow at KIDA's Security Strategy Research Center, and Editor of the Korean Journal of Defense Analysis. His main research interests include Northeast Asian international relations, security studies, diplomatic history, North Korean studies, and the ROK-U.S. alliance. His recent publications include "North-South Korea Relations under the Lee Myung-bak Administration: The North’s Provocations and the South’s Principled Response," "The U.S.'s Policy towards South Korea 1974-1975: The Ford Administration’s Policy Change," "A Case Study of Carter Administration’s Armed Export Policy toward South Korea," "The U.S. Carter Administration and Korea in the 12/12 incident: Concession of Moral Diplomacy," "The United Nations Command in Korea: past, present, and future," "Carter Administration’s Policy Toward South Korea: The Accommodation of Moral Diplomacy around the 10.26 incident," "ROK-U.S. Alliance under the Obama Administration," and "Nation’s Autonomy and Alliance Behavior."

Cho Dong-ho Professor of North Korean Studies at the College of Social Sciences, Ewha Womans University. He obtained a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in the United States and served as a Senior Research Fellow, Head of the North Korean Economy Research Team, and Head of the Planning and Coordination Office at the Korea Development Institute (KDI). He is currently a Standing Member of the Economic, Scientific, and Environmental Committee of the National Unification Advisory Council, a Director of the Council for Economic and Humanistic Research under the Prime Minister's Office, a member of the Advisory Committee on North Korea Policy Governance to the Speaker of the National Assembly, and President of the North Korean Economy Forum. He also serves as the Director of the Center for North Korean Studies at the East Asia Institute. His main research areas are the North Korean economy and inter-Korean economic cooperation. His recent research includes "Pyongyang to Seoul, Seoul to Pyongyang" (co-authored), "The July 7 Declaration and the Possibility of Coexistence between North and South Korea," "Inter-Korean Economic Cooperation Strategy for Resonance: A Joint Consideration by Conservatives and Progressives" (co-authored), "The Benefits of Unification Exceeding the Costs of Unification," and "North Korea 2032: A Resonance Strategy for Advancement" (co-edited).

Executive Summary

The East Asia Institute (EAI) New North Korea Policy Research Team has conducted policy research to develop a new South Korean policy toward North Korea in response to Pyongyang's policy of parallel development of the economy and nuclear weapons. A team of four experts in diplomacy, security, and economics, including EAI Chairman Ha Young-sun, proposes a comprehensive North Korea strategy that encompasses the phases of "deterrence-engagement-trust" to support North Korea's evolution beyond its current self-contradictory parallel development policy towards a parallel development of economic construction and denuclearized security.

Problem Statement

What measures are necessary to advance inter-Korean relations, which are caught in a cycle of crisis and negotiation, towards irreversible peace through substantive negotiations?

Objective

The New North Korea Policy aims to induce a transition from the deterrence phase (Quadrant 3) to the trust phase (Quadrant 1) in the Korean Peninsula War and Peace Tri-dimensional Model (see Figure 1 below) and contribute to building a peace order on the Korean Peninsula and in East Asia. To this end, a comprehensive North Korea strategy encompassing deterrence, engagement, and trust phases will be developed.

[Figure 1] Korean Peninsula War and Peace

Four Principles of the New North Korea Policy

1. [Deterrence] Actively deter North Korea's nuclear armament and the creation of regional military crises. To this end, a comprehensive set of measures will be developed, including the full-scale review of the Korea-U.S. Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR), the Kill Chain, the Korean Air and Missile Defense (KAMD) system, the U.S. extended deterrence, the effective interoperability of wartime operational control transfer, and the concept of a Korean Peninsula peace regime.

2. [North Korean Change] Support North Korea in pursuing "Parallel Development 2.0" of economic construction and denuclearized security. Given the strict international non-proliferation sanctions against nuclear weapons development, pursuing both nuclear armament and significant economic development simultaneously is practically impossible. However, merely conveying criticism that the current parallel development policy is bound to fail will only be perceived as a threat of regime collapse in the short term and will not be effective in guiding North Korea to evolve towards Parallel Development 2.0. Careful efforts are needed to encourage the North Korean political leadership, which has pursued an excessive security policy based on the assumption of U.S. hostile policy, to face the difficulties of Parallel Development 1.0 and make the decision to pursue and implement the alternative of Parallel Development 2.0 for denuclearized security and economic development. To this end, a future vision for the Korean Peninsula, including discussions on a peace regime in the Korean Peninsula and East Asia, and concrete plans for it must be presented.

3. [International Cooperation] South Korea-led international resonance is necessary to support North Korea's Parallel Development 2.0. The parallel development of North Korea's denuclearized security and economic prosperity must be resonated with the East Asian peace and cooperation framework. The functionalist perspective underpinning the current government's Northeast Asian peace and cooperation initiative is difficult to apply in East Asia, where intense nationalistic competition centered on individual states prevails. In other words, expecting non-military cooperation, which is relatively easier in East Asia, to expand into military cooperation is unrealistic. Spatially, limiting Northeast Asia is too narrow. A complex network must be cast, encompassing the deepening of existing networks among South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, the expansion of emerging networks with China, and furthermore, relevant countries and regional international organizations in East Asia and the world. Simultaneously, the stages of activity must be integrated: the traditional stages of security and economy, the emerging stages of environment and culture, the knowledge stage that forms the foundation of all stages in the 21st century, and the governance stage located at the top. Within this resonance of the East Asian peace and prosperity initiative, North Korea's Parallel Development 2.0 should be assisted to evolve into a long-term Parallel Development 3.0 of denuclearization and economic development.

4. [Trust] Develop measures for building trust on the Korean Peninsula for each phase. The trust-building process emphasized by the current government outlines a plan to resolve North Korean issues through phased trust-building, starting with humanitarian aid to North Korea at a low level, and then attempting higher levels of economic assistance and cooperation if North Korea responds favorably. However, the current predicament on the Korean Peninsula is not unfolding in Quadrant 1, which presupposes substantive negotiations, but in the process of evolving from Quadrant 3 (crisis) through Quadrant 4 (transformation) to Quadrant 1 (negotiation). Therefore, it is difficult to substantially implement the New North Korea Policy solely by preparing measures for trust-building limited to specific times and areas. Measures for building trust on the Korean Peninsula must comprehensively address distrust reduction in Quadrant 3, trust-building for trust-building in Quadrant 4, and a full-fledged trust process in Quadrant 1, spanning multiple quadrants... (continued)