[Polarization and Korean Democracy Series] ④ Why Can't We Trust? Perceptions of Election Fairness and Confidence in the National Election Commission

I. Introduction

In a democratic society, trust in the fairness of elections is a crucial element for maintaining political stability and social consensus. Confidence in fair electoral procedures serves to guarantee institutional legitimacy amidst political competition. Conversely, when doubts about the legitimacy of elections spread, social unrest and political conflict are inevitable. While distrust in elections is not an entirely new phenomenon in Korean society, the issue of confidence in the National Election Commission (NEC) has escalated into a national crisis following intensified controversies over election fairness after the declaration of martial law on December 3rd. Particularly, as suspicions of electoral fraud are not merely political debates but are functioning as a form of conspiratorial belief, it is an opportune moment to analyze the factors that shape this distrust and how it combines with specific political attitudes.

In many cases, as with the current controversy over election fairness, institutional and official responses such as the data provided by the NEC and court rulings have not resolved distrust. Instead, they have further strengthened existing suspicions or led to the generation of new arguments supporting conspiracy theories. This is not simply a matter of insufficient information or collective belief, but is closely linked to the process by which electoral distrust is utilized as a political strategy. Moreover, with the President directly citing the 'possibility of election fraud' as a primary reason for declaring martial law, electoral distrust is being actively employed as a tool to support political legitimacy, extending beyond mere individual suspicion. In such circumstances, verifying and refuting the logic of those who claim electoral fraud is unlikely to be a practical solution. Conspiratorial beliefs, beyond simple factual disputes, are continuously reinforced within specific socio-cultural and structural contexts.

This study, unlike previous research that has focused on verifying the content and factual accuracy of specific conspiracy theories or analyzing the media environment that disseminates them, explores the question: 'Who believes in conspiracy theories, and what is their social context?' Focusing on perceptions of election fairness and levels of trust in the NEC, it seeks to identify the socio-psychological factors that determine these perceptions and to analyze the attitudes and political judgments of those who strongly believe in conspiracy theories regarding various social and political issues. Through this, it aims to elucidate how political orientation and personal values combine to form specific conspiratorial beliefs, thereby providing empirical evidence for understanding public opinion in a society where conspiracy theories about election fraud are rampant. We hope that the findings of this study will offer significant insights for seeking practical measures to restore institutional and social trust within the democratic system.

II. Theoretical Background and Research Model

Conspiracy theories are commonly encountered in daily life and tend to be particularly potent in situations of high conflict and uncertainty (Carlson and Ramo 2023). From a cognitive science perspective, the persistence of conspiracy theories is relatively straightforward. In an environment flooded with complex information, people tend to prefer simple, intuitive explanations over analyzing and verifying it. Conspiracy theories serve as a type of 'cognitive shortcut' that fulfills these psychological needs, simplifying complex information and providing an easy-to-understand narrative. Furthermore, individuals who share conspiracy theories experience strong in-group cohesion and reinforce their group identity. Especially in times of crisis, they find psychological comfort by excluding out-groups and reinforcing in-group bias. For these reasons, conspiracy theories are maintained and reproduced more strongly within specific social contexts, extending beyond mere individual beliefs.

Conspiratorial beliefs can have various negative impacts on both individuals and society (Jeon Sang-jin 2014). At the individual level, believers in conspiracy theories are more likely to maintain biased attitudes or make irrational decisions based on distorted evidence. For example, those who believe the conspiracy theory that the COVID-19 virus originated in a Wuhan laboratory are likely to engage in socially harmful behaviors, such as refusing vaccination (e.g., Romer and Jamieson 2020) or reinforcing negative attitudes towards immigrants (e.g., Kim and Park 2022). Particularly when conspiracy theories spread in a political context (as is often the case), trust in public institutions and systems can be weakened, and they can be used as a basis for justifying extremist political actions.

So, who is vulnerable to conspiracy theories? Previous studies have indicated that individuals with extreme political orientations tend to accept conspiracy theories more readily than those with moderate orientations. Individuals with extreme political leanings tend to adopt a more defensive stance towards information that threatens their beliefs and are more likely to embrace conspiracy theories as a strategy to maintain the legitimacy of their favored political leaders or groups. In particular, numerous studies have reported that individuals with extreme right-wing orientations are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories (Sutton and Douglas 2020). It is also important to note that the relationship between political orientation and conspiracy theories varies depending on specific political contexts and the content of the conspiracy theories (Enders et al. 2023). In situations of heightened political and social uncertainty, such as in contemporary South Korean society, conspiratorial thinking can be further amplified (Carlson and Ramo 2023).

This study expands upon existing research by analyzing the influence of personal values, in addition to political orientation, on belief in conspiracy theories. Values are thoughts or beliefs about desirable states that transcend specific situations, shaping various behaviors and attitudes, and serving as a guide for evaluating social issues (Schwartz 1992; Hitlin and Piliavin 2004; Kim Ji-hye and Kim Sang-hak 2022). In societies with deepening political polarization, political conflicts are likely to manifest not just as debates over laws and institutions, but as fundamental value clashes. In this context, it is necessary to empirically examine the extent to which personal values play a significant role in shaping attitudes towards conspiracy theories surrounding election fraud and the NEC. By examining 'which values' are linked to belief in conspiracy theories, we expect to provide additional explanations beyond what can be captured by political orientation alone. This study will consider 'perceptions of election (un)fairness,' specifically the belief that the 2024 general election was fraudulent, and related 'distrust in the NEC' as the primary content of conspiracy theories, and explore their relationship with political orientation and values.

Shalom H. Schwartz's theory of values categorizes basic human values into two fundamental dimensions: 'Openness to change' (OC) versus 'Conservation' (CS), and 'Self-enhancement' (SE) versus 'Self-transcendence' (ST) ([Figure 1]). Within the circular arrangement of specific values, those closer to each other are more compatible, while those farther apart are more conflicting. For instance, 'Power' and 'Achievement' within the Self-enhancement dimension contrast with 'Benevolence' and 'Universalism' within the Self-transcendence dimension. Based on previous research findings (e.g., Poier and Suchanek 2024), individuals who prioritize Self-enhancement values, de-emphasize Self-transcendence values, are less inclined towards change and new experiences, and hold more conservative attitudes are more likely to believe the elections were fraudulent and distrust the NEC, especially when the progressive opposition parties secured a majority. While individuals with conservative values are generally known to have high levels of trust in institutions, as they prioritize maintaining social order and control (Devos, Spini and Schwartz 2012), this can vary depending on the political context. When conservatives feel their political position is threatened, conspiratorial beliefs that question the legitimacy of institutions and organizations can be triggered and reinforced. This study, based on the research model in [Figure 2], aims to empirically investigate through quantitative analysis how political orientation and personal values are associated with belief in conspiracy theories.

III. Data and Analysis Methods

1. Data and Variable Measurement

This study analyzed the responses of 1,514 adults aged 19 and above, based on a survey conducted in the fourth week of January 2025. The dependent variables consisted of perceptions of fairness in the 22nd National Assembly election (hereinafter referred to as the general election) and the level of trust in the NEC. Perceptions of election fairness were measured by how respondents evaluated the freedom and fairness of the election on a 4-point scale: 'Completely free and fair' (=1), 'Free and fair but with minor issues' (=2), 'Free and fair but with major issues' (=3), 'Not free or fair' (=4). Higher scores indicate a higher level of perceived election unfairness. Trust in the NEC was measured by how much respondents trusted the NEC, on a scale from 0 (very trusting) to 10 (very distrusting). Higher scores indicate stronger distrust in the NEC.

The main independent variables comprised political orientation and personal values. Political orientation was measured on a continuous scale from 0 (very conservative) to 10 (very progressive), indicating how respondents perceived their political stance. Higher scores signify a more progressive political orientation. Personal values were measured across four dimensions based on Schwartz's theory of values: Self-enhancement (SE), Self-transcendence (ST), Openness to change (OC), and Conservation (CS). Individual value items were measured on a scale from 1 (not at all important) to 5 (very important) (<Table 1>). The analysis utilized standardized scores for each individual, calculated by subtracting the mean score of all value items for that individual from the raw score of each value item. Control variables included gender, age, education level, household income, and region of residence. Additionally, models controlling for interest in politics, self-efficacy, and characteristics of online communities visited were examined, and it was found that these did not significantly affect the core analysis results.

2. Analysis Methods

Based on the research model in [Figure 2], regression analyses were conducted with 'perceptions of election unfairness' and 'distrust in the NEC' as dependent variables. To explore the social diffusion effects of conspiratorial beliefs, additional regression analyses were performed with political orientation, personal values, and 'perceptions of election unfairness' as independent variables, and attitudes towards impeachment and evaluations of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration as dependent variables.

IV. Research Findings

The graph in [Figure 3] illustrates that perceptions of unfairness in the 2024 general election and attitudes of distrust towards the NEC are distributed differently according to political orientation. Individuals with more conservative leanings tend to perceive the election as unfair and distrust the NEC, while those with more progressive leanings tend to evaluate the election as fair and exhibit higher levels of trust in the NEC. This reveals that levels of trust in elections and state institutions can vary significantly by political orientation, which is a relatively predictable outcome considering that the general election resulted in a landslide victory for the pan-progressive opposition bloc, centered around the Democratic Party of Korea.

[Figure 3] Distribution of Perceptions of Election Unfairness and Attitudes of Distrust in the NEC

[Table 2] presents the influence of political orientation and personal values on perceptions of election unfairness and attitudes of distrust in the NEC. A statistically significant tendency was confirmed where stronger progressive orientation was associated with lower perceptions of the last general election as unfair or lower levels of conspiratorial thinking distrustful of the NEC, which aligns with previous research findings. Regarding Schwartz's values, a stronger emphasis on Self-enhancement (SE) values, which prioritize power and achievement, was associated with a belief in election fraud, while the other three value dimensions were not statistically significant. Notably, it was empirically confirmed that the belief in current election fraud conspiracy theories is not related to Self-transcendence (ST) values, which emphasize others and society, or Conservation (CS) values, which uphold tradition and norms. Similar results were generally confirmed for attitudes of distrust in the NEC, with an additional finding that higher Self-transcendence (ST) values, which focus on others and society, were associated with greater trust in the NEC.

[Figure 4] Visualization of Regression Analysis Results (Main)

To examine the social diffusion effects of conspiratorial beliefs, additional analyses were conducted. By including values, political orientation, and 'perceptions of election (un)fairness' in the regression model, the relationship with attitudes favoring impeachment and negative evaluations of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration was analyzed and presented in [Table 2] (supplementary). The visualization of the interaction between political orientation and perceptions of election unfairness is presented in [Figure 5]. As expected, a clear tendency was observed where stronger progressive orientation was associated with negative evaluations of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's governance and support for impeachment. Notably, even among conservatives, belief in election fraud conspiracy theories further intensified these attitudes, leading to increased opposition to impeachment and higher support for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration. This suggests that belief in conspiracy theories, such as perceptions of election unfairness, can act as a significant moderating variable in political attitudes and evaluations.

[Figure 5] Visualization of Regression Analysis for Impeachment Support Attitudes and Negative Evaluations of the Yoon Suk-yeol Administration (Supplementary)

V. Conclusion and Implications

This study analyzed the influence of political orientation and personal values on the formation of conspiratorial beliefs. The findings indicate that stronger progressive orientation was associated with perceptions of election fairness and trust in the NEC, while among personal values, a greater emphasis on power and self-enhancement was linked to a stronger tendency to believe in conspiracy theories. Conversely, conservation values, which emphasize tradition, norms, and stability, and were predicted to have a strong correlation with political orientation in previous studies (e.g., Bolte et al. 2024), were found to be largely unrelated to belief in conspiracy theories. These results suggest that conspiratorial beliefs are likely to be deeply connected with an interest in controlling power and resources and a focus on personal achievement. Furthermore, additional analysis confirmed that while current election fraud conspiracy theories do not significantly affect those with strong progressive leanings, they are utilized within conservative circles as a strategic tool to enhance group cohesion and secure legitimacy. The findings of this study highlight that conspiracy theories strongly drive the opinions of specific groups, underscoring the need to move beyond factional logic that utilizes conspiracy theories and to seek more realistic and strategic responses for resolving social issues and fostering integration.■

VI. References

Kim Ji-hye and Kim Sang-hak. 2022. “Value Research and Dual-Process Theory: Application of Implicit Cognition Measurement Methods.” *Korean Sociological Association* 56(3): 1-44.

Jeon Sang-jin. 2014. *The Age of Conspiracy Theories*. Munhakgwa Jiseongsa.

Bolte, Susanne et al. 2024. “The Role of Political Orientation and Value-Framing in Carbon Pricing Acceptance: Evidence from a Representative Sample.” *Journal of Environmental Psychology* 96: 102-330.

Carlson, Jennifer and Elliot Ramo. 2023. “‘I’m Not a Conspiracy Theorist, but…’: Knowledge and Conservative Politics in Unsettled Times. *Social Forces* 101(4): 1658-1681.

Devos, Thierri et al. 2002. “Conflicts Among Human Values and Trust in Institutions.” *British Journal of Social Psychology* 41: 481-494.

Enders, Adam et al. 2023. “Are Republicans and Conservatives More Likely to Believe Conspiracy Theories?” *Political Behaviors* 45: 2001-2025.

Hitlin, Steven and Jane Piliavin 2004. “Values: Reviving a Dormant Concept.” *Annual Review of Sociology* 30: 359-393.

Kim, Ji Hye and Jihye Park. 2023. “Perceived China Threat, Conspiracy Belief, and Public Support for Restrictive Immigration Control During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” *Race and Justice* 13(1): 130-152.

Morselli Davide et al. 2012. “Human Values and Trust in Institutions Across Countries: A Multilevel Test of Schwartz’s Hypothesis of Structural Equivalence.” *Survey Research Methods* 6(1): 49-60.

Poier, Stefan and Michal Suchanek. 2023. “The Effects of Higher-Order Human Values and Conspiracy Beliefs on COVID-19-Related Behavior in Germany.” *Journal of Public Health*.

Romer, Daniel and Kathleen Jamieson. 2020. “Conspiracy Theories as Barriers to Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 in the US.” *Social Science and Medicine* 263: 113-356.

Schwartz, Shalom H. 1992. “Universals in the Content and Structure of Values: Theoretical Advances and Empirical Tests in 20 Countries” pp.1-65 in *Advances in Experimental Social Psychology*, editied by Mark P. Zanna. San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

Sutton, Robbie M. and Karen M. Douglas. 2020. “Conspiracy Theories and the Consipiracy Mindset: Implications for Political Ideology.” *Current Opinion in Behavioral Sciences* 34: 118-122.

■ Kim Ji-hye, Professor of Sociology at Sogang University.

■ Managed and Edited by:Song Chaerin, EAI Researcher

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