[22nd General Election Research Series] Defection or Protest? Determinants of Voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party

1. Introduction

The Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party, newly emerged in the 22nd general election, garnered significant attention by successfully entering the National Assembly. The Cho Kuk Innovation Party, founded about a month before the election, maintained high approval ratings throughout the campaign period and secured the position of the third-largest party in the National Assembly as a result of the election. The Reform Party also succeeded in entering the National Assembly by overcoming the proportional representation threshold, in addition to winning constituency seats.

The purpose of this report is to explore the political determinants of voting for these new parties in the 22nd general election. As many predict, did dissatisfaction with the existing two major parties contribute to the success of these parties? Specifically, what form of dissatisfaction had what impact on the decision to vote for a new party? If protest votes occurred, have they completely defected from the existing parties, or are they temporarily protesting? This report seeks answers to these questions from the perspective of strategic protest voting.

Before proceeding with the analysis, this report clarifies that it focuses on the determinants of voting for new parties in the proportional representation election, not the constituency election. This is considering that the Cho Kuk Innovation Party did not nominate constituency candidates, and the Reform Party only nominated candidates in 43 constituencies. Therefore, "new party voters" mentioned in this report refer to voters who cast their ballots for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the proportional representation election of the 22nd general election.

2. Who are the New Party Voters?

1) Sociodemographic Characteristics

The sociodemographic characteristics of voters who cast their ballots for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party as proportional representation parties in the 22nd general election are as follows. First, while the gender ratio was similar for Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters, the proportion of males was higher for Reform Party voters. Approximately 53% of respondents who indicated they voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party were male, and approximately 71% of respondents who indicated they voted for the Reform Party were male.

Second, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party received support from individuals in their 40s and 50s, while the Reform Party received support from individuals in their 20s and 50s. Notably, approximately 34% of all respondents in their 50s cast their votes for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, confirming that the party received strong support from this age group. For Reform Party voters, approximately 23% were in their 50s and approximately 22% were in their 20s. When considering all respondents in their 20s, approximately 10% voted for the Reform Party.

Third, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party received support from voters in the Honam region, while the Reform Party received support from voters in the Gangwon and Jeju regions. Approximately 43% of respondents from the Gwangju and Jeolla regions stated they voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, and approximately 10% of respondents from the Gangwon and Jeju regions stated they voted for the Reform Party.

Fourth, both parties appealed to middle and upper-income brackets. Approximately 30% of respondents who reported a monthly household income of 4-5 million KRW and approximately 26% of respondents who reported a monthly household income of 5-6 million KRW voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. Approximately 8.6% of respondents who reported a monthly household income of 6-7 million KRW voted for the Reform Party.

2) Ideology

To analyze the voting determinants of new party voters, it is necessary to examine their political characteristics. First, Table 1 shows the average self-assessed ideological scores of voters for each party. Subjective ideological assessment is on an 11-point scale from 0 to 10, where 0 represents very progressive, 5 represents centrist, and 10 represents very conservative. As shown in the table, the average ideology score for Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters was 3.67, indicating they self-identified as progressive, which was not significantly different from the average score of 3.54 for Democratic Party voters. Interestingly, Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters evaluated the Democratic Party as the ideologically closest party to them, even more so than the Cho Kuk Innovation Party itself. In this regard, it is difficult to distinguish Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters from Democratic Party voters. For the Reform Party, the average score was 5.41, indicating voters considered themselves centrist and evaluated the Reform Party as the ideologically closest party.

Table 1. Average Ideological Scores of Party Voters for Themselves and Their Parties

3) Party Affiliation

Table 2 below shows the distribution of responses regarding the current party affiliation of new party voters. First, approximately 44% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters responded that they support the Democratic Party. Voters who identified as supporting the Cho Kuk Innovation Party followed, at approximately 19.5%. In contrast, among Reform Party voters, the largest group, approximately 29.3%, identified as supporting the Reform Party, while only about 9.7% identified as supporters of the People Power Party.

Table 2. Party Affiliation of Voters Who Voted for New Parties in the Proportional Representation Election

4) Constituency Vote Choice in the 22nd General Election

So, which party did voters who cast ballots for new parties in the proportional representation election of the 22nd general election vote for in the constituency election? Table 3 below categorizes the constituency election vote choices of voters who responded that they voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the proportional representation election. The majority of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters (81.3%) chose Democratic Party candidates in the constituency vote. Only about 4% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters responded that they chose People Power Party candidates in the constituency election. This appears to have materialized the slogan, "Constituency vote for the Democratic Party, proportional representation vote for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party."

Meanwhile, approximately 37% of voters who responded that they voted for the Reform Party in the proportional representation election chose People Power Party candidates in the constituency election, and about 32% chose Reform Party candidates. Interestingly, a significant portion of Reform Party voters, about 22%, chose Democratic Party candidates in the constituency election. This behavior differs from Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters who largely avoided the People Power Party, suggesting that the voters for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party are distinct groups.

Table 3. Constituency Vote Choice of Voters Who Chose New Parties in the Proportional Representation Election

5) Constituency Vote Choice in the 21st General Election and the 20th Presidential Election

Which parties did voters for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the 22nd general election support in the 21st general election? Tables 4 and 5 show the distribution of vote choices in the 21st general election among respondents who voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the 22nd proportional representation election. First, the majority of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters were Democratic Party supporters who chose the Democratic Party in the 21st general election. Approximately 80% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters responded that they voted for Democratic Party candidates in the constituency election of the 21st general election, and approximately 34% responded that they voted for the Democratic Party's satellite party, the Citizen's Coalition for Economic Justice, in the proportional representation election. The number of voters who stated they voted for both the Democratic Party and the Citizen's Coalition for Economic Justice in the constituency and proportional representation elections, respectively, reached 32.7% (104 people).

Table 4. Vote Choices of Cho Kuk Innovation Party Voters in the 21st General Election

Table 5. Vote Choices of Reform Party Voters in the 21st General Election

Meanwhile, a significant portion of Reform Party voters supported the United Future Party in the 21st general election. Approximately 33% of Reform Party voters responded that they voted for United Future Party constituency candidates in the 21st general election, and approximately 24% stated they voted for the United Future Party's satellite party, Future Korea Party, in the proportional representation election. The number of voters who stated they voted for both the United Future Party and the Future Korea Party in both constituency and proportional representation elections was approximately 20% (16 people). Interestingly, approximately 27% of Reform Party voters responded that they voted for the Democratic Party in the 21st general election. This suggests that the Reform Party voter group is composed of both defectors from the People Power Party and the Democratic Party.

A notable characteristic is that a considerable number of both Cho Kuk Innovation Party and Reform Party voters had experience voting for a third party, not one of the two major parties, in the proportional representation election of the 21st general election. Approximately 48% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters responded that they voted for minor parties such as the Justice Party in the proportional representation election of the last general election. Similarly, approximately 68% of Reform Party voters stated they voted for minor parties in the proportional representation election of the last general election.

Finally, Table 6 shows the distribution of votes cast by new party voters for presidential candidates in the 20th presidential election. In the last presidential election, 80% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters voted for candidate Lee Jae-myung, and 63% of Reform Party voters voted for candidate Yoon Suk-yeol.

Table 6. Vote Choices of New Party Voters in the 20th Presidential Election

6) Summary: Political Characteristics of New Party Voters

A significant portion of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters were identified as progressive, consistently supporting the Democratic Party or feeling ideologically close to it, both in the past and present. They supported the Democratic Party and its candidates in past general and presidential elections, or supported third parties in proportional representation. In contrast, a considerable number of Reform Party voters were identified as centrist, showing a strong tendency not to support the existing major parties, and were found to support the Reform Party or feel ideologically close to it. They had a high rate of support for the United Future Party and its candidates in past general and presidential elections. Two main implications can be drawn from this distribution. First, new party voters were supporters of the existing major parties in past general and presidential elections. They appear to have expressed their dissatisfaction with the two major parties by shifting their votes to third parties in this election. Second, the majority of new party voters have already voted for a third minor party in past proportional representation elections. Therefore, it is highly likely that they are voters who have been continuously expressing dissatisfaction with the existing major parties.

In summary, new party voters appear to be "protest voters" who shifted their votes to third parties due to dissatisfaction with existing parties. The next section of this report will analyze the determinants of new party voting decisions more closely from the perspective of protest voting.

3. Political Determinants of New Party Voting: From the Perspective of Protest Voting

This report conducted a logistic regression analysis based on the results of a voter survey conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI) immediately after the 22nd general election to analyze the determinants of new party voters' decisions. The results are presented in Table 10 at the end of the report. This report analyzes these statistical results from the perspective of "protest voting" and aims to highlight several significant findings.

1) Theory of Protest Voting

According to the theory of protest voting, voters may strategically vote for other parties as a display of dissatisfaction when they are disappointed with the major party they have traditionally supported and its candidates. In a simple plurality party system, protest voting is difficult due to the burden of voting for the competing opposing party, but in a proportional representation multi-party system, protest voting can be more easily used as a tool to express dissatisfaction with existing parties. Such protest votes are known to have contributed to the growth of various third parties in different countries, including the Liberal Democratic Party in the UK, the Freedom Party of Austria (Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs) in Austria, and the New Democratic Party in Canada (Bowler and Lanoue 1992; Bergh 2004; Kang 2004). In Korea as well, the effect of protest voting has been consistently confirmed in various past elections. Kang Won-taek (2002) showed that dissatisfaction with major parties or politics and the economy in general was associated with voting for third candidates in the 14th and 15th presidential elections, and in another study, he also showed that voting for the Democratic Labor Party in the 17th general election was related to protest voting (Kang Won-taek 2004). Furthermore, Kim Sung-hoon (2002) demonstrated that support for minor parties in the 16th general election stemmed from dissatisfaction due to a decline in the policy levels of existing parties. Ju Min-hye (2018) also showed that voting for the People's Party in the proportional representation election of the 20th general election had the characteristics of protest voting.

According to Kang Won-taek's (2002) research on support for third parties and third candidates in Korea, there are two mechanisms through which support shifts from existing parties to third parties. First, it is the "complete transfer of support" where voters genuinely favor a third party, completely withdraw their support from the existing party, and transfer their support to the new party. In this case, there is little incentive to return to the previously supported party in the next election. Second, it is the "temporary transfer of support" where voters temporarily change their voting choice to express disappointment and political dissatisfaction with the existing party. In this case, there is a high possibility of returning to the previously supported party if their expectations are met again. Based on Hirschman's (1970) theory, the author viewed the first form of protest voting as "exit" from existing parties and the second form as "voice" (Kang Won-taek 2002, 162).

For protest voting to occur, two preconditions must be met. First, there must be high disappointment and dissatisfaction with the existing supported party. Second, there must be a sustainable and viable alternative party. In the 22nd general election, various third-party candidates emerged, suggesting that the second precondition was met. In particular, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, founded about a month before the election, consistently showed support ratings of around 20%, sending a signal to voters that this party was a viable alternative.

Given the existence of alternative parties, did dissatisfaction with existing parties lead to voting for new parties? To analyze this, it is necessary to measure political dissatisfaction with existing parties. This report measures three types of political dissatisfaction: 1) dislike of existing major parties, 2) dissatisfaction with the nomination process of existing parties, and 3) dissatisfaction with President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration, and analyzes their impact on voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party.

2) Political Dissatisfaction (1): Dislike of Existing Major Parties

To assess whether voters engaged in protest voting, it is necessary to measure their degree of political dissatisfaction with existing parties. The first indicator to measure voters' dissatisfaction with existing party politics is party favorability. Party favorability quantifies the positive or negative feelings towards each party. Holding negative feelings towards a specific party can be seen as an indicator of overall dissatisfaction with that party. The survey conducted by the East Asia Institute (EAI) immediately after the 22nd general election measured party favorability on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents "very negative feelings," 50 represents "neither favorable nor unfavorable feelings," and 100 represents "very favorable feelings."

Table 7 compares the average favorability ratings of each party among respondents who voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the proportional representation election with the average for all respondents. First, Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters viewed the Cho Kuk Innovation Party (68 points) most favorably, and the Democratic Party (65.5 points) was also viewed favorably to a similar extent. This is a natural result considering that a significant portion of Cho Kuk Innovation Party supporters voted for the Democratic Party in the last election. In contrast, Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters evaluated the Reform Party (22.5 points) and the People Power Party (11.5 points) with very negative feelings. Meanwhile, Reform Party voters viewed the Reform Party (57 points) most favorably and evaluated all other parties with negative feelings. Despite a significant portion of Reform Party voters having chosen the United Future Party in the last election, their negative assessment of the People Power Party (32.8 points) suggests that most of them experienced unsatisfactory changes, such as disappointment with the People Power Party.

Table 7. Party Favorability Ratings of New Party Voters in the 22nd General Election

Figures 1 and 2 graphically depict the marginal effects of party favorability in the logistic regression models, which are the core analyses of this study. First, as shown in Figure 1, we confirmed that the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party increases as negative feelings towards the Democratic Party, the People Power Party, and the Reform Party increase, and as favorable feelings towards the Cho Kuk Innovation Party increase. Second, as shown in Figure 2, the probability of voting for the Reform Party increases as negative feelings towards the Democratic Party, the People Power Party, and the Cho Kuk Innovation Party increase, and as favorable feelings towards the Reform Party increase.

These empirical results are consistent with the existing theory of protest voting. As mentioned earlier, protest voting occurs when existing parties are unsatisfactory and when there are sustainable and viable alternative parties. The logistic regression results show that the probability of voting for a new party increases as negative feelings towards existing parties increase and as favorable feelings towards a specific new party strengthen, which can be seen as a typical manifestation of protest voting.

Figure 1. Impact of Party Favorability on Voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party

Figure 2. Impact of Party Favorability on Voting for the Reform Party

3) Political Dissatisfaction (2): Dissatisfaction with Existing Parties' Nomination Process

Dissatisfaction with existing parties can also arise from dissatisfaction with the nomination process of existing parties during the election period. To verify this effect, the survey question "What do you think of each party's nomination process for the general election candidates?" was used. For ease of analysis, dissatisfied voters who responded "poorly" and "very poorly" were recoded as 1, and other voters as 0.

As shown in Table 8 below, approximately 32% of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters were dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's nomination process, a significantly lower percentage than the proportion of all respondents dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's nomination process (approximately 51%). In contrast, the proportion of Reform Party voters dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's nomination process was very high at approximately 72%. On the other hand, the proportion of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters dissatisfied with the People Power Party's nomination process was approximately 78%, significantly exceeding the average for all respondents (approximately 61%). The proportion of Reform Party voters dissatisfied with the People Power Party's nomination process was approximately 68%, also higher than the average for all respondents.

Table 8. Degree of Dissatisfaction with Existing Parties' Nominations Among New Party Voters in the 22nd General Election

The logistic regression analysis yielded interesting conclusions. Dissatisfaction with the People Power Party's nomination process significantly increased the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party compared to those who were not dissatisfied. Conversely, dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's nomination process significantly increased the probability of voting for the Reform Party compared to those who were not dissatisfied. Specifically, the probability of voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party for voters dissatisfied with the People Power Party's nomination process was approximately 25%, higher than the 20% probability for voters who were not dissatisfied. Similarly, the probability of voting for the Reform Party for voters dissatisfied with the Democratic Party's nomination process was approximately 7%, higher than the 4% probability for voters who were not dissatisfied. However, the effect of dissatisfaction with the People Power Party's nomination process on voting for the Reform Party, and the effect of dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party's nomination process on voting for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, were not statistically significant.

4) Political Dissatisfaction (3): Dissatisfaction with President Yoon Suk-yeol's Administration

The possibility that political dissatisfaction with President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration could lead to voting for new parties cannot be ruled out. To test this hypothesis, the survey question "How well do you think President Yoon Suk-yeol is managing state affairs?" was used. The assessment of President Yoon's administration was based on an 11-point scale, where 0 means "very poorly," 5 means "average," and 10 means "very well." As shown in Table 9 below, the average score for President Yoon's administration among all respondents was 3.179, which is generally low. The average score for President Yoon's administration among voters who stated they voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the proportional representation election was significantly lower. The average score for President Yoon's administration assessed by Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters was 1.101, and for Reform Party voters, it was 2.488, indicating a very low level of satisfaction. This highlights the high degree of dissatisfaction with the president's administration among new party voters.

Table 9. Degree of Dissatisfaction with the President's Administration Among New Party Voters in the 22nd General Election

The logistic regression analysis confirmed that the assessment of President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration had a statistically significant impact on the decision to vote for the Reform Party, but only for Reform Party voters. In other words, the lower the score for President Yoon's administration, the higher the probability of voting for the Reform Party. As shown in Figure 3 below, when the assessment of President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration was "very well" (10 points), the probability of voting for the Reform Party was close to 0 (0.01), and when the assessment was "very poorly," the probability of voting for the Reform Party increased to approximately 0.9.

Figure 3. Impact of President Yoon's Administration Assessment on Voting for the Reform Party

Table 10 below presents the comprehensive results of the logistic regression analysis, which is the core of this study.

Table 10: Determinants of Voting for New Parties

Results of logistic regression analysis. ***p<.01, **p<.05, *p<.1

4. Conclusion

The success of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the 22nd National Assembly elections can be explained by voters expressing their dissatisfaction by shifting their votes to new parties due to growing disappointment with the existing major two parties. The research findings indicated that voter dissatisfaction includes general negative sentiment towards the existing major two parties, dissatisfaction with the nomination process, and disappointment with the parties stemming from dissatisfaction with President Yoon Suk-yeol. It was confirmed that the greater the degree of dissatisfaction, the higher the likelihood of voting for a new party. In other words, protest voting occurred.

As mentioned earlier, the mechanisms of protest voting are broadly divided into complete defection from existing parties and temporary protest against existing parties. If so, did the voters who voted for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party in the 22nd National Assembly elections completely defect from their previously supported parties? Or are they temporarily protesting against their previously supported parties? This report assesses that it is highly probable that voters for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party cast protest votes as a means of temporary protest against the Democratic Party, while voters for the Reform Party cast protest votes as a result of complete defection from both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party.

Table 11 summarizes the modal political characteristics of voters for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the Reform Party. As the table shows, the majority of Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters are those who have voted for the Democratic Party in the past, currently support the Democratic Party, and feel ideologically closest to the Democratic Party. In the current situation, where dissatisfaction with the previously supported Democratic Party is not high, it appears they cast their votes for the Cho Kuk Innovation Party as a form of temporary protest against the Democratic Party.

Table 11: Summary of Political Characteristics of New Party Voters

In contrast, Reform Party voters are largely composed of those who supported the United Future Party in the past, currently support the Reform Party, and feel ideologically closest to it. Furthermore, as mentioned earlier, a significant portion of Reform Party voters stated that they had voted for the Democratic Party in the past. This suggests that Reform Party voters are a group comprising defectors from both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party. Unlike the case of the Cho Kuk Innovation Party, given their high dissatisfaction with both existing major parties and their affinity for the Reform Party, it appears more likely that Reform Party voters engaged in protest voting as a form of complete defection rather than temporary protest.

What factors, then, influenced voters' decisions to vote for either the Cho Kuk Innovation Party or the Reform Party when engaging in protest voting? First, the more positively voters felt about a particular new party, meaning the higher their party favoritism, the more likely they were to vote for that party. Second, voters were more likely to vote for the party they felt was closest to their ideology. The closer the ideological distance between the Cho Kuk Innovation Party and the respondent, and the closer the ideological distance between the Reform Party and the respondent, the higher the probability that the voter would vote for that party. Finally, this study also confirmed that the higher the level of political interest, the higher the probability of voting for a new party.

Although more detailed analysis is needed in the future, overall, voting for new parties in the 22nd National Assembly elections can be summarized as the result of voters with high political interest experiencing disappointment and dissatisfaction with existing parties, and voting for those parties when they felt favorable towards them and ideologically close. Cho Kuk Innovation Party voters expressed their protest with affection for the Democratic Party, while Reform Party voters turned away from both existing major parties.■

References

Bergh, Johannes. 2004. “Protest Voting in Austria, Denmark, and Norway.” Scandinavian Political Studies 27.4: 367-389.

Bowler, Shaun and David J. Lanoue. 1992. “Strategic and Protest Voting for Third Parties: the Case of the Canadian NDP.” Western Political Quarterly 45.2: 485-499.

Hirschman, Albert O. 1970. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Kang, Won-Taek. 2004. "Protest Voting and Abstention Under Plurality Rule Elections: An Alternative Public Choice Approach." Journal of Theoretical Politics 16.1: 79-102.

Kang, Won-Taek. 2004. "Analysis of Support for the Democratic Labor Party in the 17th General Election." 『Korean Political Studies』 13.2: 143-165.

Kim, Sung-hoon. 2002. "A Study on Protest Voting of Korean Voters: Focusing on the 16th General Election for National Assembly Members." Master's thesis, Seoul National University.

Joo, Min-hye. 2018. "Analysis of People's Party Voters: Focusing on Defectors from the Saenuri Party and the Democratic Party." 『Social Science Research』 44.2: 249-277.

■ Author: Jeong Yeon-kyung_Visiting Researcher, Institute for Social Sciences, Seoul National University

■ Editor: Kim Sun-hee_EAI Researcher

    Inquiries: 02-2277-1683 (ext. 209) shkim@eai.or.kr