[22nd General Election Research Series] The 22nd National Assembly Election and Midterm Evaluation: What Was Evaluated?

1. Introduction

Elections held mid-term in a presidential term often carry the characteristic of a midterm evaluation of the president.

A midterm evaluation generally signifies an assessment of the policy direction or performance pursued by the president, an evaluation of key issues between the ruling and opposition parties, or an assessment of policy success or failure.

However, in the 22nd National Assembly election of 2024, no specific policies or prominent issues between the ruling and opposition parties that could significantly influence the election emerged.

According to Speechlog on March 31st, among the keywords frequently mentioned in news, social media, and online communities during the fourth week of March (March 25-29),

the top keyword was 'candidate,' followed by 'Democratic Party' and 'People Power Party.' Next, in 4th place was Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea,

and in 5th place was Han Dong-hoon, interim leader of the People Power Party. In 6th place was President Yoon Suk-yeol.

(Edaily, 2024/3/31)

Regarding the content of the 'midterm evaluation,' the 22nd general election appears to have been significantly influenced by personal factors such as President Yoon Suk-yeol's leadership style. According to one opinion poll, 'President Yoon Suk-yeol' bore the highest responsibility for the People Power Party's election results at 54.1%, followed by 'First Lady Kim Keon-hee' at 10.2%, the People Power Party leadership at 7.2%, and 'Interim Leader Han Dong-hoon' at 6.7%. (Business Post, 2024/04/15)

This paper focuses on these aspects to analyze how the evaluation of President Yoon Suk-yeol actually influenced voting decisions. Specifically, it examines the choices made in the 2024 general election by voters who supported Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 presidential election or who identify as conservative, and explores the reasons why those who switched their support made different choices.

2. Analysis 1: Presidential Evaluation and Election Issues

In the 2022 presidential election, Yoon Suk-yeol won with 48.56% of the vote, narrowly defeating Lee Jae-myung, who received 47.83%. For example, in Seoul, Yoon secured 50.56% of the vote, a 4.83% lead over Lee Jae-myung's 45.73%. His victory in Seoul significantly contributed to Yoon's win in a close contest. However, in the 22nd general election, for constituency votes, the Democratic Party led with 52.23% compared to the People Power Party's 46.29%, a difference of 5.94%. This indicates that a considerable number of voters who had supported Yoon Suk-yeol switched their allegiance, which can be seen as having a significant impact on the outcomes of races between candidates from the People Power Party and the Democratic Party. Focusing on these defectors from Yoon's support base in relation to the election results is considered important, given the polarized political landscape, because the departure of (potential) supporters is thought to have a greater impact on election outcomes.

■ How Many Defected?

We examined the choices made in the recent general election by voters who supported either Lee Jae-myung or Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 presidential election. As the general election was structured as a two-party competition, similar to the presidential election two years prior, we determined that analyzing constituency votes would be most appropriate for comparison.

As shown in Tables 1 and 2, the analysis based on all respondents indicates that voters for Lee Jae-myung showed a slightly lower degree of defection compared to voters for Yoon Suk-yeol. However, the difference is relatively larger in the Seoul metropolitan area. Furthermore, the rate of voters shifting their support to a rival party was approximately double for Yoon Suk-yeol's former voters compared to Lee Jae-myung's.

<Table 1> All Respondents

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<Table 2> Seoul, Gyeonggi, Incheon

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■ Evaluation of President Yoon Suk-yeol

To understand the reasons for the defection of Yoon Suk-yeol's support base, we examined their evaluations of the president. We analyzed this by dividing voters who supported Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 presidential election into two categories: conservative-centrist-progressive ideological groups.

It can be seen that even among those who supported Yoon in 2022, their evaluation of his administration varied significantly depending on the party they voted for in the general election. Those who defected to the Democratic Party rated his administration's performance at only 2.67 out of 10. The average for those who defected to other parties was 3.99. The average for those who chose the People Power Party was 5.64, which is above the midpoint but not a very high score.

<Table 3> Evaluation of President Yoon Suk-yeol's Administration

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0-Very Poor, 5-Average, 10-Very Good

<Table 4> Presidential Approval Rating by Ideological Group

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Strongly Progressive 0-2, Moderately Progressive 3-4, Centrist 5, Moderately Conservative 6-7, Strongly Progressive 8-10 (Overall Average 3.18)

There were significant differences in President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval ratings across ideological groups. The strongly progressive group rated his performance below 1 point on a 10-point scale, and the moderately progressive group rated it at only 1.93 points. Even among the conservative groups, the moderately conservative group rated it at 4.51 points, falling short of the average score of 5. The strongly conservative group rated it at 6.17 points. Overall, this indicates a very high level of dissatisfaction with President Yoon's administration.

■ Significance of the General Election

Regarding the future political landscape, the significance of the 22nd general election varied greatly depending on the ideological group. Conservative groups interpreted its significance as a need to empower the Yoon Suk-yeol administration, while progressive groups viewed it as a need to empower the opposition parties. Centrist groups also placed more significance on supporting the opposition parties. The overall average indicated a stronger inclination towards supporting the opposition parties rather than the ruling party. Although the campaign period saw conflicting arguments of 'punishing the government' and 'punishing the main opposition party,' voters ultimately placed greater significance on punishing the government.

<Table 5> Interpretation of the General Election's Significance by Ideological Group

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-Values converted from a 7-point scale to a 10-point scale

A significant difference was observed in how the meaning of the general election was perceived among those who voted for Yoon Suk-yeol two years prior, depending on their vote choice in the current general election. Specifically, respondents who answered that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration should be empowered showed a large difference, with those who voted for the People Power Party scoring 8.20 points out of 10, compared to 3.98 points for those who voted for the Democratic Party of Korea. For Yoon Suk-yeol supporters who chose the People Power Party, considerations related to future governance appear to have had a substantial influence.

<Table 6> Meaning of the General Election by Voting Party among 2022 Yoon Suk-yeol Voters

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1-Strongly disagree, 7-Strongly agree

■ Timing of Vote Decision

If the bond or solidarity between voters and their supporting party is strong, the decision on which party to vote for would have been made long before election day. Postponing the vote decision until the last moment is likely due to dissatisfaction with the existing supporting party. To examine the influence on the vote decision, we investigated the timing of vote decisions for Yoon Suk-yeol voters in 2022. These individuals are likely to vote for the People Power Party, but if their vote decision was postponed, it would be due to dissatisfaction with the existing party.

<Table 7> Timing of Vote Decision

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As shown in <Table 7>, defectors from Yoon Suk-yeol's support base decided where to vote closer to the general election day. While about half of the People Power Party voters decided their support a month before the election day, 42.4% (constituency) and 38.6% (party vote) of defectors decided their vote 1-3 days before the election.

Up to one week before the election day, 62.6% (constituency) and 61.4% (party vote) of defectors made their voting decisions close to the election day. This proportion contrasts sharply with the 33.1% (constituency) and 34.2% (party vote) of People Power Party supporters. This indicates that these defecting voters are more related to disappointment with their existing supporting party than to a strong preference for other parties.

■ Election Issues

The fact that a considerable number of people made their decisions close to election day implies that they could be influenced by short-term factors, such as issues during the election period. In this regard, we will examine the influence of issues on voting choices. Here, we selected only issues related to the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and the ruling party.

<Table 8> Influence of Issues on Yoon Suk-yeol Defectors

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1-No influence at all, 2-Little influence, 3-Neutral, 4-Some influence, 5-Very influential

For those who defected from supporting Yoon Suk-yeol two years ago to the Democratic Party, the luxury bag controversy, the Lee Jong-sup-Hwang Sang-moo controversy, and rising prices had a high impact in that order. For defectors from other parties, rising prices were relatively high. The issue of expanding medical school quotas was highest among People Power Party voters, followed by the Lee Jong-sup-Hwang Sang-moo controversy.

However, given that the subjects of analysis here are supporters of Yoon Suk-yeol in 2022, it is necessary to examine the actual impact these issues had on the evaluation of President Yoon. <Table 9> summarizes the results of a linear regression analysis conducted to analyze the impact of foreign policy-national defense policy, election issues, and socioeconomic variables on emotional favorability toward President Yoon.

<Table 9> Linear Regression Analysis: Impact of Policies and Issues on Yoon Suk-yeol's Favorability (Targeting 2022 Yoon Suk-yeol Voters)

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Favorability: 0-Very Unfavorable ... 100-Very Favorable

Policy: 1-Strongly Oppose .... 4-Strongly Favor

Issue: 1-Not at all influential, 5-Very influential

Ideology: 0-Very Liberal ... 10-Very Conservative

Regression Analysis Results. Regarding foreign policy, favorability towards President Yoon increased with greater support for strengthening South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation, and favorability increased with a higher subjective social class and a more conservative self-perceived ideology. These results align with generally expected outcomes.

However, it is noteworthy that the influence of issues that arose during the election period was also confirmed. Favorability towards President Yoon decreased with greater impact from the First Lady Kim Keon-hee's luxury bag controversy, the Lee Jong-sup and Hwang Sang-moo controversies, and the issue of rising prices. Given that the subjects of analysis here are Yoon Suk-yeol's supporters in 2022, it is highly probable that these matters, which influenced the president's evaluation, also negatively impacted the election.

To confirm these characteristics, Table 10 examines the influence of each factor on Yoon Suk-yeol's favorability, divided by ideological groups. Regarding foreign and security policy, regardless of ideological group, favorability towards the president increased with greater support for strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance and South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation. Only within the progressive group was the North Korea relationship statistically significant. It is noteworthy that the issues related to Japan show the same pattern across all ideological groups.

Regarding issues, the First Lady Kim Keon-hee's luxury bag controversy was statistically significant across all three groups, with the coefficient value being largest in the moderate group. Rising prices also affected presidential favorability in the moderate and progressive groups.

<Table 10> Linear Regression Analysis: Influence of Policies and Issues on Yoon Suk-yeol's Favorability (By Ideological Group)

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Overall, election issues influenced presidential approval, with the First Lady Kim Keon-hee's luxury bag controversy and inflation having a negative impact.

3. Analysis 2: Determinants of Voting Decisions

This section examines the factors influencing the choice between the People Power Party and other parties in district elections.

■ 2022 Yoon Suk-yeol Voters' Choices

First, we analyzed the general election support of 2022 Yoon Suk-yeol voters. As shown in the analysis results in Table 11), the more voters assigned meaning to supporting the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in future political affairs, the higher their support for the People Power Party. The influence of ideology was also confirmed: conservative voters showed higher support for the People Power Party. Interestingly, the influence of President Yoon Suk-yeol's favorability was not statistically confirmed. In contrast, the influence of Lee Jae-myung and Han Dong-hoon was statistically significant. Greater rejection of Lee Jae-myung led to higher support for the People Power Party, and favorability towards Chairman Han Dong-hoon had a positive impact on support for the People Power Party.

<Table 11> Analysis of 2022 Yoon Suk-yeol Voters' General Election Choices: Binary Logistic Analysis

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1: Yoon Suk-yeol vote-People Power Party vote, 0: Yoon Suk-yeol vote-Defection

*p<0.01, **p<0.05

Regarding the issues, although directions were indicated for controversies surrounding First Lady Kim Keon-hee, Lee Jong-sup and Hwang Sang-moo, and price increases, they were not statistically significant.

Overall, voters who supported the People Power Party in the 2024 general election among past Yoon Suk-yeol supporters were conservative voters who, regardless of their favorability towards Yoon Suk-yeol, held the stance that the government should be supported in future political affairs, influenced by their rejection of Lee Jae-myung and positive evaluation of Chairman Han Dong-hoon. This situation reflects the polarization of Korean politics. However, given the characteristics of these supporters, the external base of support for the People Power Party has consequently shrunk.

<Table 12> Binary Logistic Analysis of Conservative Voters' General Election Choices

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0-Democratic Party/Other Party Support, 1-People Power Party Support (Constituency)

*p<0.01, **p<0.05

To reconfirm these characteristics, we examined the factors influencing general election choices by ideological group. As the support for the People Power Party is of interest here, we analyzed the voter group who consider themselves conservative and the centrist voter group with high potential for support.

The response pattern of the conservative ideological group shows a strong resemblance to the 2002 Yoon Suk-yeol supporter group presented in Table 11. The influence of President Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating was statistically insignificant. Instead, the support for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in future political affairs was highly significant, reflecting negative sentiment towards Lee Jae-myung and positive preference for Han Dong-hoon. Higher assets were associated with greater support for the People Power Party.

Next, we analyzed the factors influencing the general election choices of centrist voters, who are the 'potential' support group that the People Power Party can attract.

Table 13: Binary Logistic Analysis of Centrist Voters' General Election Choices

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0-Democratic Party/Other Party Support, 1-People Power Party Support (Constituency)

*p<0.01, **p<0.05

When analyzed among respondents with moderate political leanings, Yoon Suk-yeol's favorability had no impact, while Lee Jae-myung's unfavorability and Han Dong-hoon's favorability influenced support for the People Power Party. Most significantly, considerations of future political dynamics played a substantial role, similar to the previous analysis. However, a difference was observed: the influence of issues was confirmed within the moderate group. The issue of expanding medical school enrollment quotas and the controversy surrounding Kim Keon-hee's luxury gifts were statistically significant. While the former influenced support for the ruling party among moderate voters, the latter controversy increased the likelihood of supporting other parties.

However, when focusing solely on the Seoul metropolitan area, the influence of President Yoon Suk-yeol's favorability was confirmed, and the impact of the Kim Keon-hee luxury gift controversy was even more pronounced. Although the influence of supporting the Yoon Suk-yeol administration and the aversion to Lee Jae-myung were also evident, the analysis confirmed that politically sensitive moderate voters in the Seoul metropolitan area were influenced by the Yoon Suk-yeol-Kim Keon-hee dynamic in their voting decisions. If these individuals represent a potential voter base that the People Power Party could attract, then the presidential factor appears to have negatively impacted their support.

4. Conclusion

Overall, for conservative voters or those who supported Yoon Suk-yeol in 2002, the most significant factor leading to support for the People Power Party appears to be their stance of supporting the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in future political dynamics (and opposing the opposition parties' leadership), irrespective of their evaluation of Yoon Suk-yeol. Their negative reaction towards Lee Jae-myung was also consistently observed. This confirms the polarization of South Korean politics.

The evaluation of Han Dong-hoon by the People Power Party's support base appears favorable. In contrast, the evaluation of President Yoon Suk-yeol was not only generally low but also received poor ratings within his support base and among potential supporters. While policy-related factors such as inflation are relevant, the controversy surrounding Kim Keon-hee's luxury gifts consistently emerged as the most influential factor. This presidential variable, including the First Lady, influenced moderate voters to turn away from the People Power Party.

The 2024 general election appears to have been negatively impacted by the Yoon Suk-yeol variable on the cohesion of past voters and potential supporters, amidst significant interest from various political factions and ideological groups in leading the future political landscape.

5. Political Reform: Electoral System Revision

Finally, opinions on the revision of the electoral system were examined. Similar to the 21st general election, the semi-proportional representation system was utilized, leading to the creation of 'satellite parties.' This also resulted in issues of disproportionality, where significant discrepancies arise between vote share and seat allocation. For these reasons, opinions on revising the electoral system were solicited.

The analysis revealed that a majority (73.2%) held the opinion that "the current National Assembly electoral system needs revision." By party support, 84.1% of People Power Party supporters felt the need for revision, and two-thirds of Democratic Party supporters also agreed.

<Table 14> Necessity of Revising the Current Electoral System

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<Table 15> Reasons for Necessity of Electoral System Revision

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The most frequent response for the reason for amendment was the need to resolve polarized party politics. Approximately 40% of respondents indicated this, regardless of their party affiliation. Among supporters of the People Power Party, the second most common reason cited for amendment was disproportionality, referring to the gap between vote share and seat share, at 27.5%. Approximately 25% of respondents, regardless of party, also stated that the National Assembly should strengthen its representation of the socioeconomic status of the populace. In this regard, the 22nd National Assembly should undertake political reform efforts aimed at resolving polarization, mitigating disproportionality, and enhancing representation in the electoral system.

References

Kim, Dae-cheol. 2024. "Yoon Suk-yeol's Approval Rating Plummets to 25.7%, Responsibility for General Election Defeat is Yoon Suk-yeol 54.1%." <Business Post>, April 15.

Kim, Hye-seon. 2024. "Negative Campaigning in General Elections Failed to Attract Public Attention [4.10 Big Data Public Sentiment]." <Edaily>, March 31.

■ Author: Kang Won-taek_Director of the EAI Center for Democratic Studies. Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University.

■ Editor: Kim Sun-hee_EAI Research Fellow

    Inquiries: 02-2277-1683 (ext. 209) shkim@eai.or.kr