The 20th Presidential Election and the Change and Persistence of Regionalism

1. Introduction: Possibility of Change in Regionalism in the 2022 Presidential Election

In the 2022 presidential election, regional conflict between the Yeongnam and Honam regions, a traditional staple of our elections, did not receive the same attention as in previous elections, as partisan polarization, camp confrontation, generational conflict, or gender conflict emerged as the main topics of the election process. While region was still an important variable of interest in the election, it would be more appropriate to say that the focus was on how much each candidate, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party, would perform and gain more votes in the traditional strongholds of the opposing party, rather than on how overwhelmingly their own party's traditional strongholds would show support.

This is understandable, as candidate Lee Jae-myung, from Andong, repeatedly emphasized that he was the first presidential candidate of the Democratic Party with roots in the TK region, and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, from Chungcheong, actively recruited influential figures from the Honam region and visited the 5.18 Democratic Cemetery in Gwangju and the birthplace of President Kim Dae-jung in Shinan, Haui-do, to appeal to the Honam vote. Both candidates made appeals through compelling regional campaign strategies to overcome the high threshold of the opposing party's home turf, leading voters to anticipate a mitigation of regionalism ahead of the election. Indeed, opinion polls conducted several times before election day showed candidate Lee Jae-myung

performing somewhat better than past Democratic Party presidential candidates in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol performing somewhat better than past People Power Party presidential candidates in the Honam region.

Furthermore, this phenomenon had already been observed in Korean elections since the 2000s, and the influence of regional cleavages had been gradually diminishing in Korea due to social changes, generational shifts, and increased geographical mobility. Amidst this, following the 2016 Candlelight Protests and the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye, discussions arose in some quarters about the dissolution of the traditional regional confrontation structure that had persisted in the Yeongnam region since the 1990 merger of three parties and the realignment of political parties. Therefore, analyzing the voting patterns observed in this presidential election to diagnose the current state of regionalism in Korean politics is necessary and holds significant meaning in itself.

Regionalism has long been considered a significant cleavage factor determining the electoral landscape of South Korea. However, from the mid-2000s onwards, discussions began to emerge suggesting that the influence of regionalism on voter behavior was diminishing as alternative cleavage factors such as ideology and generation gained prominence (Choi Jun-young & Cho Jin-man 2005; Kang Won-taek 2003; Kim et al. 2008). Nevertheless, a considerable number of studies have countered this view, arguing that regionalism continues to exert a significant influence on the political attitudes and behaviors of Korean voters, alongside newly emerging factors (Yoon Kwang-il 2012; Kim Yong-chul & Cho Young-ho 2015; Moon Woo-jin 2017; Noh Ki-woo et al. 2018).

Amidst this ongoing debate, in the four national elections held since the impeachment of President Park Geun-hye in 2017—the 19th presidential election, the 7th National Simultaneous Local Elections (2018), and the 21st National Assembly election (2020)—the Democratic Party achieved notable successes in the Yeongnam region (particularly Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam), which had traditionally been a stronghold for conservative parties. This led to discussions about whether regionalism was beginning to weaken significantly. Specifically, a trend of decreasing voter support intensity for the People Power Party (inheriting the legacy of the Liberty Korea Party and the United Future Party) was observed in the Yeongnam region, raising the possibility of changes in regionalism, especially around the PK (Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam) areas (Jeong Jae-do & Lee Jae-mook 2018).

Indeed, in the 19th presidential election, President Moon Jae-in secured the top spot in his home region of Busan (38.7% support) and the adjacent region of Ulsan (38.1%), and also performed well in Gyeongnam (36.7%), Daegu (21.8%), and Gyeongbuk (21.7%), achieving relatively balanced support nationwide. Furthermore, in the 2018 local elections, the Democratic Party candidates Oh Keo-don in Busan (55.23% support), Song Cheol-ho in Ulsan (52.88% support), and Kim Kyoung-soo in Gyeongnam (52.81% support) all surpassed 50% support, sweeping the gubernatorial elections in the Gyeongnam region, making the mitigation of regionalism in the Yeongnam region seem like a fait accompli. However, a decrease in political attachment to conservative parties among Gyeongnam voters did not necessarily translate into increased support or loyalty towards the Democratic Party. Therefore, viewing the signs of change in regionalism, particularly centered in the Yeongnam region, as a 'dealignment' from existing partisan affiliations rather than a 'partisan realignment' is still the more common perspective (Kang Won-taek 2019). In essence, the April 2021 by-election for the mayor of Busan, which served as a precursor to the presidential election, saw the People Power Party candidate Park Hyung-joon win by a significant margin with 62.67% of the vote against the Democratic Party's Kim Young-choon, who received 34.42%, once again confirming the potential fluidity of voter sentiment in the so-called PK region.

The purpose of this chapter is to comprehensively analyze the regional voting behavior of the electorate as reflected in the presidential election held last March. Here, regional voting behavior refers to the overwhelming support shown by voters in a particular region towards the dominant party of that region. Regional political behavior can entrench monopolistic politics at the regional party level, consequently hindering the emergence of new alternative political forces within a party's regional base, and further weakening the dynamism of electoral competition, thereby undermining the functioning of representative democracy centered on responsible parties (Kang Won-taek 2010). Therefore, despite recent discussions about potential changes, academic interest in regional voting behavior remains necessary.

2. Electoral Politics and Regionalism in South Korea

Regionalism has established itself as the most significant socio-political cleavage in South Korean political processes since democratization, leading to various academic studies on its causes (Choi Jang-jib 1996; Son Ho-chul 1996; Cho Ki-sook 2000). To date, three main perspectives have been proposed to explain the causes of regionalism. First, the politico-economic perspective suggests that asymmetrical economic development strategies between the Yeongnam and Honam regions under authoritarian regimes created a form of socio-economic discrimination, leading to regionalism (Choi Jang-jib 1996). Second, the elite-centered political mobilization perspective posits that regionalism emerged as the so-called '3 Kims,' who became mainstream politicians after democratization, adopted regional bases for their electoral strategies (Son Ho-chul 1996). Finally, the perspective based on rational choice theory, deviating somewhat from the elite-centered explanation, posits that voters exhibit regional voting behavior based on their rational desire to improve the socio-economic conditions of their own region (Cho Ki-sook 2000).

However, from the 2000s onwards, studies began to emerge suggesting that the influence of regional cleavages in South Korean politics had somewhat weakened compared to the past, and that alternative cleavages such as generation and ideology were gaining prominence (Choi Jun-young & Cho Jin-man 2005; Kang Won-taek 2003; Kim, Choi, and Cho 2008). For instance, Kang Won-taek (2003) analyzed voter behavior in South Korean elections in the early 2000s and concluded that while regionalism persisted to some extent, generational ideological gaps were observed, and newly emerging alternative cleavages also exerted significant influence on voting choices. Choi Jun-young and Cho Jin-man (2005) empirically demonstrated through an analysis of the 17th general election results that alternative cleavages of ideology and generation had caused significant changes even in regions with strong regional cleavages, such as Yeongnam and Honam. Furthermore, some studies have indirectly measured regionalist attitudes and argued that regional animosity does not exist between voters in Yeongnam and Honam (Choi Jun-young 2008; Noh Ki-woo, Jeong Min-seok, & Lee Hyun-woo 2018).

Meanwhile, recent studies have offered a new perspective suggesting that social media platforms such as Twitter and Facebook can mitigate regionalism through the formation and function of bridging social capital (Lee Jae-mook & Kim Ki-dong 2017). Additionally, from the perspective of regional identity, it has been proposed that Koreans, on average, feel a stronger sense of identity with their place of residence than their place of origin, and that this residential identity is unexpectedly forming more strongly around Seoul in recent times than in the Yeongnam and Honam regions (Kim Ki-dong & Lee Jae-mook 2022). These research findings collectively suggest that the phenomenon of regionalism in South Korea is subject to change.

3. The 20th Presidential Election and Regionalism: Analysis of Election Results

Against this backdrop, let us diagnose the regional competitive dynamics of the two major parties centered on the 20th presidential election. The Democratic Party, traditionally based in the Honam region (Gwangju and Jeolla provinces), nominating a presidential candidate from the Yeongnam region (Roh Moo-hyun in 2002 and Moon Jae-in in 2017) has been cited as one of the main reasons for the weakening of regionalism in national elections since the 2000s (Choi Jun-young & Cho Jin-man 2005). In this context, candidate Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, originally from Andong in Gyeongbuk, focused his campaign on winning over the Yeongnam region by emphasizing his status as the first presidential candidate from the TK region for the Democratic Party. During the Democratic Party's primary, he also made a controversial remark about the "Baekje impossibility theory," which backfired. His argument was that he, being from Yeongnam, had greater potential for broad appeal than a Honam-born candidate for the Democratic Party.

[Figure 1] Regional Vote Share of Democratic Party Presidential Candidates, 2012-2022 (Unit: %)

Looking at the regional vote shares in the actual vote count, candidate Lee Jae-myung, who received 47.83% of the vote nationwide, secured 21.6% of the vote in Daegu and 23.8% in Gyeongbuk, traditional weak areas for the Democratic Party. He garnered 38.15% in Busan, 40.79% in Ulsan, and 37.38% in Gyeongnam. Comparing these figures with President Moon Jae-in's regional vote shares from five years prior, candidate Lee Jae-myung showed differences in Daegu (21.76%→21.60%), Gyeongbuk (21.73%→23.80%), Busan (38.71%→38.15%), Ulsan (38.14%→40.79%), and Gyeongnam (36.73%→37.38%). While candidate Lee Jae-myung narrowly lost the overall election by 0.73%, judging solely by the results in the Yeongnam region, he performed even better than President Moon Jae-in in Gyeongbuk, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam compared to the election five years ago. However, considering the Yeongnam region as a whole, the 2022 presidential election did not show significant changes in terms of regional voting compared to the election results from five years ago. The Democratic Party consistently received similar levels of voter support in the Yeongnam region over the past five years, suggesting that if regionalism has weakened somewhat, it likely occurred prior to the 2022 presidential election. In other words, similar to the results of national elections held over the past five years, the Democratic Party maintained a stable vote share close to 40% in the so-called PK regions, including Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam, in this presidential election as well.

Regarding the vote share in the Honam region, candidate Lee Jae-myung showed strong results, exceeding President Moon Jae-in's vote share in the same regions by more than 20% across the board. However, his performance was somewhat lower than President Moon Jae-in's vote share in Gwangju and Jeolla provinces during the 2012 presidential election. In this regard, it must be considered that in the 2017 presidential election, candidate Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party performed well in the Honam region, including Gwangju (30.08%), South Jeolla Province (30.68%), and North Jeolla Province (23.76%), leading to a dispersion of Democratic Party-leaning votes away from candidate Moon Jae-in. Furthermore, when compared to the 2012 presidential election, it can be argued that some regional votes that were concentrated on candidate Moon Jae-in ten years ago at the aggregate level shifted to competing candidates in this election.

[Figure 2] Regional Vote Share of People Power Party Presidential Candidates, 2012-2022 (Unit: %)

So, have there been significant changes in the regional voting behavior of Honam voters? In response to the recent shifts in voter sentiment in the Yeongnam region during national elections, the People Power Party consistently pursued a "Westward Advance" policy during this election period to focus on winning over the Honam electorate. Party leader Lee Jun-seok frequently visited various parts of Honam during the campaign, and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol sent handwritten letters to the 2.3 million voters residing in the Honam region during the Lunar New Year holiday, appealing his policy vision. The People Power Party also recruited former lawmakers with strong ties to the Honam region, such as Park Joo-sun and Kim Dong-chul, to the campaign committee and appointed Lee Yong-ho, the only incumbent lawmaker from the Honam region within the People Power Party, as co-chair of the campaign committee. Furthermore, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol made efforts to appeal to the Honam electorate in various ways, including becoming the first presidential candidate of a conservative party to visit the birthplace of President Kim Dae-jung located in Shinan-gun, Haui-do, South Jeolla Province. As a result of these efforts, some opinion polls released during the election campaign showed candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party receiving support exceeding 30% in Honam, leading to expectations in some quarters that the People Power Party would achieve close to 30% of the vote in Honam this time.

The actual vote count shows that although the People Power Party did not achieve the expected 30% vote share, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol recorded the highest presidential election vote share for a conservative candidate in Honam history (Gwangju 12.72%, South Jeolla Province 11.44%, North Jeolla Province 14.42%). Specifically, candidate Yoon Suk-yeol not only surpassed the vote records of Saenuri Party candidate Park Geun-hye in the 18th presidential election in 2012 in Gwangju (7.76%), South Jeolla Province (10.00%), and North Jeolla Province (10.46%), but also broke the records for the highest vote share by a conservative party candidate in Honam in previous presidential elections: Gwangju (8.6% for Lee Myung-bak in 2008), South Jeolla Province (10% for Park Geun-hye in 2012), and North Jeolla Province (14.13% for Roh Tae-woo in 1987). While the figures may seem somewhat lower compared to the votes received by the Democratic Party in the Yeongnam region, this can be seen as a significant change indicating the future potential for shifts in Honam regionalism.

4. Voter Behavior and Regionalism Analysis in the 20th Presidential Election

Let us examine changes in micro-level regional voting behavior by analyzing the results of voter surveys conducted before and after this presidential election. This survey was commissioned by the East Asia Institute (EAI) to Korea Research and conducted through telephone interviews with the same panel twice (1st survey: March 12-15, 2022; 2nd survey: March 10-15, 2022). The response rate was 80.3% (1,374 contacted, 1,104 responded), and the sampling error was ±2.9%p.

[Table 1] Voting Choice and Political Orientation by Voter's Residential Region

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[Figure 3] Vote Share Difference between Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol (by Residence/Place of Origin)

First, examining the presidential candidates by voter residence, similar to the actual election results, the Democratic Party's candidate Lee Jae-myung shows a selection rate of over 20% in Daegu and Gyeongbuk, and over 40% in Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam. Furthermore, Yoon Suk-yeol, who received 12.72% of the vote in Honam in the actual election results, recorded 14.5% support from the Gwangju/Jeolla region in this survey. [Figure 3] presents the difference in vote share between candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, based on the survey response results, by respondent's residence and place of origin, respectively. A plus (+) indicates a region (or place of origin) where candidate Lee Jae-myung is dominant, while a minus (-) indicates a region where candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is dominant (disadvantageous for candidate Lee Jae-myung). For reference, the difference in vote share (candidate support) between the two candidates is located between -1 and +1. Based on the candidate selection rate, it is shown that candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is slightly ahead of candidate Lee Jae-myung in all regions except Honam, and it can be confirmed that candidate Lee Jae-myung is significantly ahead of candidate Yoon Suk-yeol in terms of support rate in the Honam region. Although there are some differences, the pattern is very similar when the same analysis is conducted by voter's place of origin. Even when examining by voter's place of origin (hometown) rather than their current residence, a similar pattern to the residence analysis is observed, but it can be confirmed that the support for the People Power Party's candidate Yoon Suk-yeol among voters from Honam slightly increases compared to residents of Honam. In summary, based on the candidate selection rate of the two major parties, the survey results are consistent with the overall status of actual regionalist sentiments, but the regionalism shown in this survey is somewhat weakened compared to the actual election results in the Yeongnam and Honam regions.

[Table 2] Voting Choice by Voter's Region of Origin

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A closer look at the survey results reveals that voters residing in the Honam region are, on average, more ideologically progressive than voters in other regions, and they also show a more favorable or moderate stance on the Moon Jae-in administration's performance. The regional political orientation of Honam voters is reconfirmed by the proportion of respondents who agree with the question of whether this presidential election is considered a referendum on the Moon Jae-in administration; respondents residing in Honam showed the lowest agreement with this question with an average score of 4.15 (compared to respondents residing in other regions), which contrasts sharply with the sentiment of voters in Daegu/Gyeongbuk who expressed high agreement with this question (6.89 points).

Meanwhile, one interesting analytical finding regarding the possibility of regionalism change is revealed in the question asking about the degree of agreement (0-10 points) with the statement, "This presidential election has weakened regionalism compared to the previous election." In relation to this question, the fact that residents of the Yeongnam (including Daegu/Gyeongbuk and Busan/Ulsan/Gyeongnam) and Honam regions showed a commonly high level of agreement compared to residents of other regions is particularly interesting. Residents of the PK region showed the highest degree of agreement with this statement among all regions, with an average score of 4.46, followed by Daegu/Gyeongbuk (4.30) and then Honam (Jeonnam/Buk, 4.27). Interestingly, voters from Yeongnam and Honam, the main axes of regional confrontation, expressed higher agreement on the easing of regionalism than voters from other regions.

Finally, to examine the changes in regional sentiment observed across the first and second surveys, we analyzed the changes in support rates for candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol by respondent's residence ([Figure 4]). It can be confirmed that both candidates saw a general increase in support rates across all regions in the second survey compared to the first, which may indicate that voters consolidated around the candidates of the two major parties as the election day approached. Microscopically, it could also be the result of third-way voters dispersing and consolidating into the respective camps of the two candidates following the unification of Ahn Cheol-soo and Yoon Suk-yeol. While an increase in support for the candidates of the two major parties is observed in all classified metropolitan regions, it is notable that candidate Yoon Suk-yeol showed the largest increase in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region by 17 percentage points (50%→67%), whereas candidate Lee Jae-myung showed the largest increase in the Gwangju/Jeolla region by 19 percentage points (62%→81%). In other words, as election day approached, the two candidates mobilized higher support from their respective traditional support bases.

[Figure 4] Change in Support Rate (Vote Share) for Candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol Before and After (by Residence)

5. Analysis of Future Possibilities for Regionalism Change

As examined so far, the impact of regional variables on the election results in this presidential election can be seen as an extension of the trend of weakening regionalism that has continued in recent years. While regionalism has significantly weakened in Yeongnam, particularly in the PK region, it still persists in the Daegu/Gyeongbuk region. Furthermore, while Honam voters exhibit more robust regionalist tendencies compared to Yeongnam, these also show some signs of weakening compared to the past. In this chapter, to analyze the future possibilities for regionalism change, we conduct several additional analyses. First, to confirm the emotional basis of regionalist voting behavior, we divide survey respondents by their regional background and examine their favorability and unfavorability towards major candidates and their affiliated parties. Subsequently, to indirectly confirm the possibility of weakening regionalism due to generational change in the future, we compare attitudes towards the regionally dominant party by age group and by residence with attitudes towards other parties. Finally, to measure the pure independent effect of regional variables in this presidential election, we analyze the effect of regional variables on voter choice through binary logistic regression, while controlling for other major explanatory variables.

[Figure 5] Favorability towards Politicians by Region of Residence

[Figure 6] Favorability towards Political Parties by Region of Residence

First, to examine voters' regional sentiments more deeply, we will examine the favorability index of major politicians and presidential candidates (President Moon Jae-in, and candidates Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol) and the two major parties by respondent's region of residence. To exclude candidate-specific factors as much as possible and to examine the emotional attitudes of residents toward the two main candidates, President Moon Jae-in was included as a comparative subject. Favorability toward politicians and parties is based on survey results where respondents answered on a scale of 0 (strongly dislike) to 10 (strongly like) how much they liked or disliked the survey subject. Examining the favorability of President Moon Jae-in and the two presidential candidates by region of residence reveals that the main differences are found in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region and the Honam region. However, the difference in mutual favorability toward presidential candidates by region is observed with some variation between the Yeongnam and Honam regions. In the PK region, the favorability difference between President Moon Jae-in and candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is not significantly differentiated, with scores of 4.5 and 4.8, respectively. Candidate Lee Jae-myung's favorability among voters in this region is 4.2, showing no large gap compared to President Moon Jae-in (0.3 points difference) or candidate Yoon Suk-yeol (0.6 points difference). In the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, however, President Moon and candidate Lee Jae-myung, with favorability scores of 3.7 and 3.8, respectively, show a gap of nearly 2 points with candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, who recorded a favorability score of 5.6. For reference, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung received scores 0.3 points lower than President Moon Jae-in in the PK region and 0.5 points lower in the Honam region, while his favorability score in his home region of Daegu-Gyeongbuk was 0.1 points higher than President Moon Jae-in's.[1]

Considering that the favorability gap between candidate Lee and candidate Yoon in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region is 1.8 points, and the gap between the two candidates in the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam regions is only 0.6 points, it can be confirmed that the antipathy of Honam voters toward the dominant party candidate of the rival region is more pronounced compared to the Yeongnam region.

The favorability gap between the parties shows a similar pattern to the favorability gap between candidates. The favorability of the Democratic Party and the People Power Party in the Yeongnam and Honam regions are 3.9:4.4 and 3.1:5.2 for Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam and Daegu-Gyeongbuk, respectively, and 5.8:2.5 for Gwangju-Jeolla, with the gaps being largest in Gwangju-Jeolla and Daegu-Gyeongbuk, in that order.[2]

Next, to indirectly examine the possibility of future changes in regionalism, let us divide voters into generational groups and examine the gap in their voting choices for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party in this presidential election.[3][Figure 7] shows the gap in voter support for Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung and People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, divided by region of residence and generation. The figures range from -100% to +100%, with values closer to +100% indicating regional/generational groups where candidate Lee Jae-myung (Democratic Party) was dominant, and values closer to -100% indicating regional/generational groups where candidate Yoon Suk-yeol (People Power Party) was dominant. First, across all regions except Seoul and Gwangju-Jeolla, it is confirmed that candidate Yoon Suk-yeol narrowly led candidate Lee Jae-myung in terms of support among voters in their 20s (ages 18-28). This slight conservative bias among voters in their 20s is also observed in the party favorability gap. That is, similar to the candidate choice results, the favorability of the People Power Party among voters in their 20s narrowly exceeded that of the Democratic Party in all regions except Seoul and Gwangju-Jeolla.

[Figure 7] Vote Difference between Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol by Region and Generation (by Respondent's Region of Residence, %)

Meanwhile, looking only at voters in the Yeongnam and Honam regions, we can somewhat confirm the possibility of regionalism weakening through the generational vote difference for the two candidates within their respective regions. In the Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam region, support for candidate Lee Jae-myung was found to be leading over candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, particularly among those in their 30s and 40s. In Daegu-Gyeongbuk, the dominance of candidate Yoon Suk-yeol is also observed to be somewhat mitigated among voters in their 20s and 40s compared to those in their 50s and 60s. In the Gwangju-Jeolla region, the favorability gap between the Democratic Party and the People Power Party is smaller among voters in their 20s compared to other age groups. However, the generational gap or variation in the Gwangju-Jeolla region is not as pronounced as in the Yeongnam region.

[Figure 8] Effect of Region of Residence on Voting Choice in the 20th Presidential Election (Logistic Regression Analysis)

Finally, to comprehensively analyze the effect of the regional variable on voter choice in the 20th presidential election, a binary logistic regression analysis was conducted with the choice of the winning candidate, Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party (=1), as the dependent variable. The results are presented in [Figure 8]. The X-axis of the figure, which shows the regression coefficients and statistical test results, includes key explanatory variables such as region of residence (Daegu-Gyeongbuk, Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam, Honam), gender (female=1), age group, education level, individual's subjective ideological evaluation (0=most liberal, 10=most conservative), and party identification, while the Y-axis displays the regression coefficients centered around 0, indicating no effect. The statistically significant explanatory variables include age (20s and 40s), residence in Honam, and party identification (People Power Party (+), People's Party (+), Democratic Party (-), Justice Party (-)). Notably, among the regional variables, only the Honam variable showed a statistically significant negative (-) effect when other related variables were controlled. In other words, residents of Honam are distinctly more likely to choose a competing candidate other than People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, whereas the regional effect for residents of Yeongnam is not statistically significant when other variables are controlled. This analytical result implies that while the effect of regional variables has somewhat decreased compared to the influence of other major variables (generation or party) in this presidential election, the change is observed primarily in the Yeongnam region rather than the Honam region.

In conclusion, synthesizing the above analytical results, regional voting, while somewhat weakened in South Korea compared to the past, has shown more pronounced changes in the Yeongnam region than in the Honam region. Furthermore, within the Yeongnam region, these changes are more evident in the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region than in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region. Particularly, as in recent elections, the voting patterns in the PK region were not as strongly concentrated on the traditional dominant regional party compared to the Daegu-Gyeongbuk or Gwangju-Jeolla regions. However, the survey results also suggest a weak possibility of future shifts in regionalism centered around the younger generation in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Gwangju-Jeolla regions, compared to the older generations.

6. Conclusion

Regionalism, considered the most important voting determinant in South Korean elections since democratization, has shown continuous signs of weakening influence with the rise of alternative cleavages since the 2000s. In particular, changes in regionalism have been observed in national elections held in recent years, centered around the Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam region. In this presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung recorded approximately 40% of the vote in the PK region, maintaining a stable party support level similar to the Democratic Party's vote share in the 19th presidential election five years prior. While the regionalist tendency in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region remained strong compared to the PK region, President Moon's vote share in the TK region already surpassed 20% five years ago, and candidate Lee Jae-myung once again secured over 20% of voter support in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region in the 20th presidential election. Notably, Lee Jae-myung achieved the highest vote share (23.8%) among all Democratic Party candidates in his home province of Gyeongbuk. Furthermore, this presidential election also revealed variations in regional voting tendencies by generation in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, suggesting the possibility of further weakening of regionalism in the TK region centered around future generations.

While the pace of change in regionalism in the Honam region may be slower compared to the Yeongnam region, People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol received the most votes among conservative candidates in the Honam region in this presidential election. Yoon Suk-yeol recorded double-digit vote shares in Gwangju, North Jeolla, and South Jeolla provinces, reaching nearly 15% in North Jeolla. However, a more robust regionalist tendency was observed in Honam compared to Yeongnam through opinion polls in this presidential election, and notably, the variation in political attitudes by generation was not as significant as in the Yeongnam region. Nevertheless, as the possibility of change in Honam regionalism was revealed in various aspects throughout the presidential election campaign, it is necessary to continuously monitor what changes will occur in regionalism in the Gwangju-Jeolla region going forward.

To more closely examine the possibility of future changes in regional voting tendencies, we look at the party and politician favorability ratings by region and generation among Yeongnam and Honam voters. Similar to the 20th presidential election results, the intensity of regionalism appears in the order of Gwangju-Jeolla, Daegu-Gyeongbuk, and Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam. However, it is interesting to note that in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, the degree of regional party bias is somewhat reduced among the youth compared to the older generation. A more detailed examination of voters in the Yeongnam and Honam regions based on various political and social backgrounds such as generation, class, ideological orientation, and education level will allow for some prediction of how regional factors will be replaced by other voting determinants like class, generation, and ideology in these regions in the future. Therefore, further survey work with larger sample sizes and data construction specific to these regions will be necessary for subsequent research on the changes and persistence of regionalism.

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[1] The favorability gap among major politicians in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Gwangju-Jeolla regions does not show significant changes even when analyzed based on respondents' region of origin rather than their region of residence. Candidate Yoon Suk-yeol received a favorability score of 3.1 from voters from Gwangju/Jeolla, while President Moon Jae-in and candidate Lee Jae-myung received favorability scores of 3.8 and 3.6, respectively, from voters from Daegu-Gyeongbuk.

[2] The gap in favorability ratings for the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, centered around the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Gwangju-Jeolla regions, is similarly observed when changing the respondent's regional affiliation from region of residence to region of origin. The Democratic Party received a favorability score of only 3.3 from voters from Daegu-Gyeongbuk (People Power Party: 5.0), and the People Power Party received a favorability score of only 2.7 from voters from Honam in this survey (Democratic Party: 5.6).

[3] However, given that the number of individuals allocated to each sub-group is considerably reduced when dividing the approximately 1,000 respondents included in the survey by region and age, caution is needed in interpreting the analysis results for these sub-groups.

■ Author: Lee Jae-mook_Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; Director of Public Relations, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies; Team Leader, BK21 Global Democracy and Human Security Research Team, Department of Political Science and International Relations. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Iowa, USA, and currently serves as the Education Director of the Korean Political Science Association and the General Affairs Director of the Korean Political Parties Association. His main research areas include political behavior, political processes, and American politics. His recent edited works include "Korean Political Parties and Democracy Diagnosed in the Political Arena" (2018, co-authored), "American Politics and East Asian Foreign Policy" (2017, co-authored), and "US-Korea Politics: Challenges and Changes" (2014, co-authored).

■ Editor: Jeon Ju-hyun_EAI Research Fellow

    Contact: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 204) | jhjun@eai.or.kr