[Future Japan 2030 - Where is Japan Heading After Abe?] II. Challenges in Japanese Politics and the Future Direction of 2030 Next-Generation Politics

Editor's Note

As the second report in the "Future Japan 2030" special commentary series, a working paper by Lee Ju-kyung, a full-time researcher at the Institute of Korean Studies for National Culture, Pusan National University, has been published, analyzing Japan's political system and forecasting the future type of democracy based on this analysis. The author states that Japan's political system reflects the changes and responses of its domestic political and social structures to evolving domestic and international environments. In this regard, Japan is currently building a political system of the "regime selection-cabinet leadership" type, and the author argues that this system, due to the dominance of the LDP and competition among parties, diminishes opportunities for regime selection. However, recent reformist forces within the LDP are pursuing measures such as Japanese social policy and parliamentary reform. The author contends that the institutional arrangements resulting from the efforts of these new forces, the responses of established political powers, and the policy competition between the two will determine the future direction of Japanese democracy.

※ The following is the introduction to this working paper. For the full text, please refer to the attached file below.

I. Introduction: The LDP's Dominant Hegemony and Cabinet Leadership

Predicting the direction of Japanese politics is challenging amidst the fluidity of the global political economy and domestic political uncertainties. While the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) dominant hegemony is deepening, the fluid consciousness of voters, which varies with time and circumstances, further complicates predictions. This study aims to provide a perspective on the future trajectory of Japanese politics by examining the operational principles and challenges of the political system that Japan's politics and society have been newly exploring since the 1990s.

The reason this study focuses on the political system is twofold. First, it encapsulates the outcomes derived from Japan's political and social efforts to adapt to changes in its domestic and international environments. The sense of crisis regarding comprehensive structural transformation is not a recent phenomenon in Japanese society. The necessity for structural transformation across government policies, including demographics, labor, industry, social welfare, and finance, emerged around the 1990s. The current state of Japanese politics is the result of a process of repeated changes and responses, compounded by new domestic and international variables. The cornerstone of political change in Japan over the past three decades has been the transition to a new system to replace the 'Japanese-style system' under the 55-year structure, aiming to realize responsible politics through regime change in elections. In other words, it represents the process of implementing a political system that enables agile responses to rapidly changing domestic and international environments, fosters policy competition based on party principles, and ensures transparency and speed in policy decision-making through the integration of government and ruling party (Lee Ju-kyung 2018, 25). Consequently, Japan has established a 'regime selection-cabinet leadership' type political system, anchored by strong cabinet leadership as a mechanism for agile response to domestic and international environmental changes, and regime selection through elections as a mechanism to ensure the cabinet's swift policy implementation.

Second, the currently established political system presents new challenges for Japanese politics. Japanese politics, which has pursued the establishment of a system that encourages policy competition based on a two-party framework and voter regime selection, has produced the unintended outcome of LDP one-party dominance. What is noteworthy here is the incongruity between the 'regime selection-cabinet leadership' political system and the one-party dominant party system. In the current electoral process, the LDP's dominance is solidifying, partly due to its relatively positive evaluation following the failure of the Democratic Party of Japan's administration, contrasted with the weakened opposition forces. In the policy process, prime ministerial and core executive policy-making authority has been strengthened, government-ruling party cohesion has increased, and policy-making processes have been simplified and expedited, leading to the institutionalization of "Kantei-led" policy-making. In contrast to the strong policy leadership of cabinets based on electoral victories since the launch of the second Abe administration in December 2012, the current political landscape, where the influence of opposing forces within and outside the LDP has weakened, signifies the decline of alternative government forces in inter-party competition. It also presents a factor that hinders the emergence and dissemination of policy ideas within the LDP itself. Consequently, while the legitimacy derived from cabinet leadership, representing the majority of voters through election results, exerts stronger pressure on the policy-making process, the reciprocal reinforcement between policy implementation and regime selection within the political system has not been achieved due to weakened scrutiny and verification of policies pursued by the cabinet (see Figure 1).

<Figure 1> Regime Selection-Cabinet Leadership Political System

If the current political system is the foundation of change connecting Japan's past and present, in what direction will the Japanese political system move forward? In answering this question, the core of the discussion lies in how one views 'change.' Considering the current state of Japanese politics, rather than simply predicting the possibility of regime change, a strategic and normative deliberation is necessary on how political forces will rectify the structural problems of the political system arising from LDP dominance, taking into account the reality of this dominance.

In this regard, this study aims to present qualitative changes in political forces and the resulting variability in the political process. Even if LDP dominance continues, changes in policy-making actors are expected due to generational shifts. In particular, by focusing on the perceptions and actions of the new generation of politicians, roughly in their 40s, who are expected to emerge as Japan's political leaders after 2030, it is necessary to examine the political leadership and policy orientations they pursue. This will allow for an assessment of the anticipated changes in Japan's electoral and policy processes and how these will alter the 'regime selection-cabinet leadership' political system. For example, how do the next-generation political leaders perceive the current political system? If they identify problems, what kind of political leadership do they aspire to, and what policy ideas do they intend to use to address them? Furthermore, do their responses possess strategic validity that can be projected onto real politics in the near future? If these responses manifest in the political arena, what changes can be expected in the Kantei-led policy-making process, and how will responsible politics be ensured (or supplemented)? The primary objective is to present the changes in the Japanese political system in the process of answering these questions.

The main analysis will proceed as follows. First, the problems of the current political system will be presented by examining the issues that emerge in Japan's electoral and policy processes following the shift to the 'regime selection-cabinet leadership' political system. Second, the perceptions and responses of the next-generation political leaders (new forces) who will emerge in the 2030s will be investigated, and their desired political leadership and electoral strategies will be examined. Furthermore, based on the perceptions and responses of these political forces, the potential future direction of the Japanese political system will be proposed. Finally, the conclusion will present the implications of this study for the future direction of Japanese politics, based on the analysis.

■ Author: Lee Ju-kyung_Full-time researcher at the Institute of Korean Studies for National Culture, Pusan National University. She holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Hosei University, Japan, where she also served as a visiting researcher. Her research areas include Japanese politics, policy processes, and party politics. Her major publications include "The Interaction Between LDP Central and Local Politicians Regarding the TPP Negotiations and Agricultural Issues" (2019), "The Japanese House of Councillors Election and Party Campaign Strategies" (2015), and <The Policy Change Mechanism of the LDP Administration> (2014).

■ Contact and Editor: Kim Seyoung EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) sykim@eai.or.kr

[EAI Commentary] is a commentary series planned to provide a forum for experts from various fields to present in-depth analyses and policy recommendations on major domestic and international issues. Please cite the source when quoting. EAI is an independent research institution independent of any partisan interests. The arguments and opinions presented in the reports, journals, and books published by EAI are not attributable to EAI and represent solely the views of the individual author.

Attachment: [Future Japan 2030] Challenges in Japanese Politics and the Future Direction of 2030 Next-Generation Politics_Lee Ju-kyung.pdf