[Future Japan 2030 - Where is Japan Headed After Abe?] I. Factors of Internal and External Structural Change and Japan's Response

Editor's Note

As the first report in the "Future Japan 2030" special commentary series, a working paper by Professor Lee Jeong-hwan of Seoul National University, analyzing the factors of internal and external structural change in Japan and its response measures, has been published. The author argues that Japan is currently facing key structural change factors such as the rise of China, demographic shifts, and technological innovation, and that these factors will intensify in the near future. While Japan continues its efforts to secure international influence amidst US-China competition, it faces challenges such as the sustainability of its social security system and securing industrial competitiveness, brought about by structural changes including demographic shifts and technological innovation, including the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Regarding external structural change factors, including US-China competition, the current Abe administration exhibits a flexible 'internationalism' and strategic flexibility, while regarding internal structural change factors such as demographic shifts and technological innovation, the author argues that the approach is characterized by gradual institutional reform.

※ The following is the introduction to this working paper. Please refer to the attached file at the bottom for the full text.

I. Introduction

Kenneth Pyle understands modern and contemporary Japanese political and diplomatic history as a response to changes in the international structure (Kenneth Pyle 2008). Japan, heavily reliant on overseas resources for procurement and demand, is inevitably greatly influenced by the international structure, and its modern and contemporary history is strongly constrained by factors of international structural change. From this perspective, Japan's foreign policy and domestic system are bound to undergo significant changes at times of major shifts in the international structure. Japan's success or failure depends on how well it has adapted to the changing international structure. While Japan's aggressive wars before 1945 are considered a representative error in response to the international structure, its response to the international structure of the Cold War and the Bretton Woods system after 1945, based on the Yoshida Doctrine, is considered a positive example. Meanwhile, the domestic social structure, symbolized by demographics, becomes a cause for the nation's path regarding labor supply, demand creation, and engagement with the outside world.

Structural variables are undoubtedly critically important in understanding Japan's foreign policy and domestic system. However, as with all political phenomena, structural variables are realized through the choices of actors. Japan's response to structural change is inevitably differentiated by the perceptions and preferences for response methods of the members of the political community of Japan. Aggressive wars and the Yoshida Doctrine were all based on the choices and support of Japanese policymakers and social members. Furthermore, these choices were selected as national responses through processes of debate, confrontation, and convergence within Japan regarding differing understandings of structural characteristics and response methods. Therefore, understanding Japan's foreign policy and domestic system requires not only an objective analysis of the nature of structural variables but also an examination of how these variables are understood and how response measures are sought within Japan.

Currently, the international structure and domestic social structure are undergoing significant changes in various aspects. The internal and external structural changes represented by the rise of China, demographic shifts, and technological innovation are not unique to Japan. However, for Japan, which has enjoyed prosperity and peace since 1945, these structural changes are factors that erode the foundations of its prosperity and peace. How will Japan respond to the structural changes it currently faces? How will Japanese policymakers choose Japan's path within their perceptions, and how will domestic debates and confrontations unfold regarding this? How will Japanese society react to and influence the process of choosing response methods to structural change factors at the policymaker level?

This paper does not aim to answer all these questions. Rather, it seeks to provide an overall grasp of the structural change factors Japan currently faces and to forecast the direction of domestic discussions surrounding Japan's response. The trajectory of Japan's near future in politics, diplomacy, economy, and society over the next 10-20 years will be shaped by Japan's response to the constraints and opportunities presented by structural changes represented by the rise of China, demographic shifts, and technological innovation. Therefore, analyzing the constraining and opportunistic aspects of the structural changes presented to Japan will be the most prerequisite task for forecasting Japan's future. In addition, an analysis of the national vision that forms the basis of Japan's response strategies to these structural change factors is necessary.

At present, the key variable in analyzing Japan's national vision is the Abe administration. The second Abe administration, launched on December 26, 2012, and continuing for nearly seven years, is exceptionally long-lasting in modern and contemporary Japanese political history. The long duration of the current Abe administration focuses the analysis of recent changes in Japan's politics, diplomacy, economy, and society on the policy orientation of the Abe administration. The national vision of the Abe administration, which advocates for 'breaking away from the post-war regime,' is understood as the integrated pursuit of foreign and security policy lines represented by value-oriented diplomacy, proactive pacifism, and the Indo-Pacific strategy, and economic and social policy lines represented by Abenomics and the Japan Revitalization Strategy. The long continuation of the Abe administration has the effect of making it appear that the Abe administration's national vision has been agreed upon and converged by Japanese policymakers and Japanese society as a whole. On the other hand, the economic and social policy lines of the Abe administration are difficult to view as a clear vision in terms of value criteria such as efficiency and distribution, market and community, and inwardness and outwardness, and tend to mobilize all possible policy tools to re-establish a 'strong Japan.' The lack of clear direction in the economic and social policy lines demonstrated by the Abe administration suggests a high probability that competition over Japan's economic and social policy lines will re-emerge after the Abe administration or after the Tokyo Olympics.

This study aims to analyze the challenges posed by the internal and external structural change factors facing Japan, examine the nature of the policy content in response by the current Abe administration, and explore the phenomenon where discussions on national vision regarding Japan's response to structural change factors are latent within this context.

■ Author: Lee Jeong-hwan_ Professor of Political Science and International Relations, Seoul National University. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California at Berkeley. His main research areas include Japanese political economy and Japanese foreign policy. His major works include <Decentralization Reform and Public-Private Cooperation in Contemporary Japan> (2016), "The De-localizing Nature of Japan's Regional Revitalization Policy" (2017), and "Transformation of Abe Administration's Historical Policy: Abe's Speeches and Internationalism" (2019).

■ Contact and Editing: Kim Seyoung EAI Research Fellow

Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 208) sykim@eai.or.kr

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Attachment: [Future Japan 2030] Factors of Internal and External Structural Change and Japan's Response_Lee Jeong-hwan.pdf