The Role of Internet Public Opinion in China's Foreign Policy Decision-Making: Focusing on the Third North Korean Nuclear Test

EAI China Studies Panel Report No. 12

Author

Professor at Korea University, Director of the Center for Chinese Studies, Institute for East Asian Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Peking University. His main research areas are Chinese politics and diplomacy. Recent publications include <The Chinese Communist Party during the Reform and Opening-Up Period> (2014, co-edited), “Perceptions of Democracy among Intellectuals in Contemporary China: Evidence from Study on Political Scientists in Beijing and Shanghai” (2012), and “Dilemma of Korea-China Relations with the Emergence of the G2 Era” (2012), among others.

I. Problem Statement

Influenced by informatization and globalization, internet media has been rapidly growing in China. According to the <Statistical Report on the Development of China's Internet> (30th edition) released by the China Internet Network Information Center on July 19, 2012, the number of Chinese netizens reached 538 million as of the end of June 2012, with an internet penetration rate of 39.9% nationwide. The number of mobile internet users increased by 32.7 million from the end of 2011 to 388 million. China has maintained the world's largest netizen population for five years, surpassing the United States in June 2008. The number of users of the Chinese social networking service 'Weibo' increased from 63.11 million at the end of 2011 to 195 million by the end of June 2012, an increase of 132 million in half a year, representing a growth rate of 208.9%. Consequently, the proportion of Weibo users among all Chinese netizens rose from 13.8% to 40.2%. The number of mobile Weibo users also increased from 15.5% at the end of 2010 to 34.0%. Furthermore, since the second half of 2012, the number of Chinese users of WeChat, a service similar to South Korea's KakaoTalk, has rapidly increased, reaching approximately 500 million users by the end of 2013, with over 100 million overseas users. According to one expert, the growth rate of internet usage in China showed a high annual average of 38.1% between 2000 and 2008. Even if it maintains an average annual growth rate of 15%, it is projected that by 2015, 793 million people, or 58% of the total population, will be using the internet.

As the internet and social networking services spread at such a rapid pace, they have become important means for disseminating public opinion, making internet media not only a crucial space for opinion formation but also the most significant channel for political participation. Although the internet is strictly controlled and managed by the Chinese government, it still serves as a primary avenue for numerous individuals to voice grievances and criticisms. Particularly since 2003, Chinese netizens have begun to engage in discussions online concerning China's foreign policy and external relations, and these discussions have emerged as important variables to consider in China's foreign policy decision-making process.

Despite this trend, research on the impact of internet media on China's foreign policy decision-making and implementation is not extensive. Historically, it was widely believed that in highly centralized authoritarian regimes like China, the roles of groups and individuals other than the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in foreign policy decision-making were extremely limited compared to democratic systems. According to this view, even though Chinese diplomacy has gradually become more professionalized, diversified by institution, and involved a wider range of actors beyond the core leadership, and globalization has progressed, China remains an undemocratic country where public opinion's influence on foreign policy decision-making is strictly curtailed due to media control. Furthermore, the government's control over emerging media such as the internet and social networking services, through measures like shutting down problematic websites or employing various technical means, makes it difficult for the internet to positively influence the government's foreign policy decisions.

Conversely, there is also the argument that as China has undergone rapid economic growth and marketization, society has become more pluralistic and civil society has grown, inevitably strengthening pluralistic trends and the influence of internet public opinion in foreign policy decision-making and implementation. According to this perspective, opinion leaders, including public opinion, think tanks, media, and experts, directly or indirectly, consciously or unconsciously, influence foreign policy decision-making, hoping that the final policy decisions align with their policy preferences. While traditional media such as newspapers remain under significant government control, the development of emerging media like the internet has made centralized government control over various information difficult, enhanced channels and capabilities for public political participation, and thus strengthened the influence on domestic politics as well as foreign policy.

Thus, the impact of the internet on China's foreign policy remains a subject of debate. This paper argues that as China's internet usage has rapidly increased and the formation of public opinion and political participation through the internet have become more frequent, public opinion formed through these emerging media is becoming increasingly important in the government's pursuit of foreign policy. Simultaneously, the relationship between public opinion formed through these internet media and foreign policy takes various forms. In other words, while internet public opinion has led to actual changes in foreign policy in some cases, in other instances, the government has utilized internet public opinion to promote policy directions and create favorable conditions for policy implementation. Specifically, this paper aims to analyze the relationship between internet public opinion and China's foreign policy by examining the impact of internet public opinion on foreign policy after the third North Korean nuclear test, based on the premise that public opinion within China is developing in various ways in relation to foreign policy through emerging media such as the internet.

II. The Emergence of the Internet and China's Foreign Policy Decision-Making

1. The Spread of Internet Media and Challenges to China's Foreign Policy Decision-Making

The internet, often referred to as the fourth or new media, has developed rapidly since the 1990s, becoming an important tool for information dissemination and opinion formation. It is characterized by its transmission medium, distinct from traditional media such as newspapers, broadcasting, and television. While debates exist regarding the definition of internet media, this paper defines internet media as a medium that disseminates news based on various formats like text, voice, and images, borrowing from diverse technologies in fields such as semiconductors, electronics, telecommunications, and audiovisuals, with transmission occurring on the internet. Furthermore, it encompasses not only forms that utilize internet spaces like newspaper websites, blogs, and internet TV as efficient transmission channels, based on interactivity, simultaneity, transnationality, and multimedia capabilities, but also various social networking services such as Weibo and KakaoTalk.

Since the mid-1990s, with the rapid spread of the internet in China, these internet media have emerged as significant variables influencing the foreign policy decision-making process. The role of media in China's foreign policy decision-making has evolved through three main stages. First, the period from 1949 to 1978 was characterized by a charismatic leader occupying a central position in policy decisions, with the entire decision-making process being highly personalized. During this era, the development of mass media was low, and China was isolated from the international stage within the Cold War framework. The primary function of mass media was focused on reporting government news and promoting government policies.

The second stage, from 1978 to the mid-1990s, saw a transition from individual-dependent policy-making to collective policy-making, although Deng Xiaoping, as a charismatic leader, still wielded significant personal influence. A notable event in Chinese politics during this period was the revival of the Foreign Affairs Leading Small Group in 1981, which served as an important indicator of the restoration of collective foreign policy decision-making. Although the public's role in the policy-making process was still absent during this period, mass media development progressed at a rapid pace.

The third stage, from the mid-1990s to the present, marks a period when the relationship between foreign policy and media began to change. This transformation was conditioned by four factors. First, with the end of the Cold War, the rapid introduction of information and communication technologies, represented by the internet, into China led to changes in the relationship between mass media and Chinese foreign policy. Second, demographic changes, specifically the birth of the second and third generations after the revolution, reduced the social foundation for the emergence of strong charismatic leaders, creating key conditions for the development of scientific and rational foreign policy decision-making processes. Third, the expansion of the foreign policy domain due to the advancement of reform and opening-up policies introduced various new elements influencing foreign policy, inevitably increasing the media's influence. Fourth, the unprecedentedly rapid spread of internet usage within China acted as a significant variable.

Among the aforementioned factors, internet media, which has steadily developed since the mid-1990s, has brought about tremendous changes in the relationship between China's foreign policy and the media. With the development of the internet, various online communities have emerged, challenging the previously monopolistic transmission media and creating new participation mechanisms based on the public. Government control over traditional mass media in China determined what information the public should and could access, and what they should believe. Furthermore, public discussion was impossible in traditional media, and it was even more difficult concerning foreign policy. Before the development of internet media, there were no systematic channels for the Chinese public to participate in politics and public affairs or express their views.

However, the internet and internet forums have become a new and unique space for the public to express their perspectives and opinions, particularly on political issues. Through the internet, the public has gained a degree of freedom to disseminate various news, express viewpoints, and criticize political issues and public affairs. Concurrently, platforms like internet forums have enabled the public to break free from official information and news control. Thus, the internet has provided the public with a space to express opinions or criticisms on political issues and facilitated connections with the outside world.

As the internet has become an important channel that not only provides a critical space but also facilitates connections with the outside world, individuals have also been able to conveniently obtain information and knowledge related to China's foreign policy through the internet. This situation has posed three significant challenges to China's foreign policy decision-making.

First, it is a challenge arising from the impact of advancements in information and communication technology on the redistribution of information. The high-speed flow of information across borders, occurring almost in real-time, allows all internet users to simultaneously access the latest developments on a particular issue. Consequently, even ordinary Chinese citizens can obtain the same information as top policymakers, or even faster. Simultaneously, netizens can conveniently acquire knowledge about international relations from the internet, enabling them to choose means to understand and analyze international phenomena and China's foreign policy based on their individual preferences, rather than passively accepting the government's unilateral choices. The government can no longer monopolize the sole interpretation of international issues and its own foreign policy, and policymakers must give much greater consideration to how to persuade the public and gain support when formulating and announcing policies.

Second, it is a challenge stemming from the dissemination of knowledge. In the age of information and communication, the supply of reliable knowledge has become a new source of power. With the ample supply of information, people have increasingly needed efficiently processed information and knowledge. Depending on who provides this knowledge, it can influence the behavior of those who receive it. In this context, China's foreign policy decision-making bodies are compelled to seriously consider how to maintain public trust in official sources.

Third, it is a challenge arising from the strengthening trend of decentralization of power distribution. In China, as in most countries, foreign policy decision-making authority is typically concentrated in the central government. However, with the diversification and professionalization of the foreign affairs domain, and the development of the internet making it easier for individuals and organizations to acquire information and knowledge related to foreign policy, the decentralization of power in foreign policy decision-making and implementation is an undeniable trend. Various actors, beyond traditional policy-making entities, can now influence policy decisions much more easily than before, especially when they can mobilize public support. In response to this trend, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs established the Department of Public Diplomacy within the Information Department (新闻司) on March 19, 2004, to enhance public understanding of the Ministry's work.

2. Characteristics of Internet Media Operation Mechanisms in China's Foreign Policy Decision-Making

The role of internet media in foreign policy decision-making and implementation occurs through the following processes. First, it can drive agenda-setting. When issues are raised on the internet and attract increasing attention from both the government and the public, the agenda set by the internet eventually becomes the government's policy agenda. Second, it can create a favorable environment for policy implementation. Once a foreign policy is decided, its implementation may become impossible or require adjustments depending on the environment. At this stage, internet media can serve as a crucial window for guiding and shaping public opinion, thus intervening and playing a role not only in the decision-making process but also in the implementation process of foreign policy. Internet media can foster an environment conducive to policy implementation by promoting government policies, providing specific interpretations of policy provisions, and introducing best practices in policy execution, thereby encouraging the public to accept and align with foreign policies. Third, it participates in policy evaluation. Internet media can conduct public oversight of the government's policy implementation process by conveying public opinion and suggestions regarding the actual execution of policies to the government and policymakers... (continued)