The Future of Sino-American Relations from the Perspective of International Relations Theory: Focusing on the Post-2008 Global Financial Crisis

EAI China Panel Report No. 7

Author

Han Suk-hee (韓碩熙)_Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Yonsei University. Director, EAI Center for Chinese Studies. Graduated from the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Yonsei University, and obtained a Ph.D. from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. He has served as a visiting researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and as a lecturer at the School of Government, Peking University. His major works include "China's Foreign Relations in the Hu Jintao Era," "China's Strategy of Multipolarization, Multilateral Diplomacy, and Northeast Asian Security," "The Stalemate of the Six-Party Talks and China's Dilemma," and "Alliance fatigue amid asymmetrical interdependence: Sino-North Korean relations in flux."

I. Introduction

The 2008 Global Financial Crisis marked a new milestone in Sino-American relations. The global financial crisis, which began with the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States, led to the bankruptcy of global financial institutions such as Lehman Brothers Inc., causing a shortage of liquidity and a credit crunch in the global financial market, which in turn spread to a recession in the real economy worldwide. The United States, which had reigned as the world's sole superpower, not only lost the international community's trust in its economic capabilities due to the global financial crisis but also suffered a fatal blow to its comprehensive leadership in global development. In contrast, China has maintained its policy of strengthening national capabilities since the 1990s, and particularly since the global financial crisis, it is perceived to be gaining influence and leadership in various international arenas. Reflecting this trend, discussions about China's rise and America's decline have been widespread in the international community, and the concept of "G2" or "Chimerica" has emerged, emphasizing the need for the United States and China to jointly address various international issues.

In reality, since the global financial crisis, while the United States and China have outwardly emphasized cooperation and interdependence, they have intensified conflicts and competition on practical issues. For instance, since President Obama's visit to China (November 2009), both countries have engaged in power struggles over various issues, including U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, climate change agreements, the appreciation of the Renminbi, South China Sea disputes, and the sinking of the ROKS Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island. In particular, President Obama's "return to Asia" strategy (November 2011), a result of these conflicts and competition, has stimulated China's strategic concerns, and these bilateral conflicts are expected to continue for a considerable period. Some Western scholars and media attribute the causes of these conflicts to "China's anti-Western and anti-foreign nationalism" or "China's miscalculation combining diplomatic overconfidence and domestic anxiety," while Chinese media reports that a majority (55%) of Chinese perceive the current Sino-American relations as a "prelude to a new Cold War," citing several scholars to clearly articulate a nationalistic tone advocating for retaliation against U.S. actions toward China (Sheridan 2010; Pomfret 2010; Nye 2010;〈环球网〉2010/02/02).

Of course, given that Sino-American relations during the post-Cold War era have been characterized by a cross-cutting and simultaneous interplay of cooperation and conflict, the current Sino-American relations can be seen as not deviating significantly from the broad framework of cooperation-conflict. Furthermore, the various conflict issues between the U.S. and China listed above are not new issues when reviewing the bilateral relations of the past 30 years. Nevertheless, the fundamental reason for the intense focus on current Sino-American relations is the high likelihood that the ongoing bilateral relationship will directly influence the formation of the future international order. The relationship between China's continuous rise and the United States, which, although weakened, remains the world's hegemonic power, undoubtedly constitutes a key element in shaping the future world order.

Another reason for the intense focus on current Sino-American relations is that the most prominent change when comparing the present relationship to the past is the shift in China's perception and attitude toward the U.S. due to its relative increase in national power. In particular, China, reflecting its growing confidence as a major power, has been reaffirming the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party's leadership domestically and strengthening China's status as the world's strongest power externally. This change in attitude, driven by China's increasing national strength, has become more evident with the decline of U.S. hegemony following the global financial crisis, and it is in this context that extensive conflicts with the United States are emerging. Therefore, this paper aims to analyze the cooperative-conflictual relationship between the United States and China that has emerged since the 2008 global financial crisis and to attempt a theoretical approach to defining the bilateral relationship, which is a key factor in shaping the future international order.

II. Theoretical Approaches to Sino-American Relations

The current Sino-American relationship is recognized as the most crucial determinant of the future international order. However, the current Sino-American relationship is analyzed in various ways depending on the perspective and views of the evaluator, and consequently, the future international order is predicted with considerable uncertainty. Amidst this diversity, adopting a theoretical approach can be seen as an optimistic measure for a clearer and more realistic analysis. Especially, as many scholars and analysts are presenting their own opinions and arguments about where the bilateral relationship is heading and what factors can most pivotally influence that direction, theoretical analysis can serve as a tool to explain reality more effectively.

Generally, the most common theoretical analyses used to explain international relations can be divided into realism, liberalism, and constructivism. When applied to predicting the future of Sino-American relations, each theoretical approach offers different explanations for the future of Sino-American relations within its own domain. Furthermore, by applying two variables—optimistic and pessimistic predictions—to each theory's outlook on future Sino-American relations, the theoretical explanations for analyzing the future of Sino-American relations can be classified into the following six categories: realist pessimists; realist optimists; liberal pessimists; liberal optimists; constructivist pessimists; and constructivist optimists. Professor Aaron L. Friedberg has attempted an analysis of Sino-American relations using these six variables. This paper will analyze the future of Sino-American relations based on Professor Friedberg's research.

1. Realist Approach

From a realist perspective, all states perceive the international system as anarchic, and their common goal is survival. Therefore, realists assume that all states pursue power, recognizing power as the only means to ensure their own survival. Applying this to Sino-American relations, realist pessimists predict that, assuming China's rise continues, future Sino-American relations will become entangled in severe security competition, and the possibility of war will be considerably high. They argue that as China rises, it attempts to widen the power gap with neighboring countries and, based on this, seeks to establish a China-centric hegemony in East Asia. They specifically assert that based on the security dilemma, China will attempt to weaken U.S. influence in the region once it establishes hegemony in East Asia, ultimately aiming to force the U.S. to withdraw from the region.

On the other hand, realist optimists, under the same preconditions, differ from realist pessimists by viewing that, despite China's rise, its power is constrained and its hegemonic ambitions are weak, thus the security dilemma, characterized by suspicion of the other's intentions and military buildup, will not intensify. They particularly emphasize that conflict escalation due to misperception is unlikely. Firstly, they argue that post-Cold War East Asian international relations are inevitably bipolar between China and the United States, both are nuclear powers, and the unique geopolitical factors of East Asia will all weaken the security dilemma (Goldstein 1997, 70). According to Kenneth N. Waltz, a bipolar system is the most stable system, and nuclear war, by its nature, implies mutual destruction, thus reducing the possibility of war. Especially due to the geopolitical characteristics of East Asia, the U.S. is a maritime power and China is a continental power, so their spheres of influence tend not to overlap, which can provide a relative sense of stability.

Furthermore, they assess China's national strength as having potential but not yet being a match for the United States. In other words, they maintain a skeptical stance on China's continuous growth and consider the notion of China's national strength surpassing that of the U.S. as unrealistic. They particularly focus on the internal instability and political inefficiencies within Chinese society, arguing that the continuous development or expansion of the Chinese economy is hindered by these socio-political factors. They also note that the rising China's development goals are not revolutionary in nature, aiming to change the existing international order, but rather revisionist, with a strong intention to enhance its capabilities and influence within the current international system. Thus, they recognize China as a force for maintaining the existing system, denying the possibility of a power transition from the U.S. to China in Sino-American relations.

2. Liberal Approach

The liberal approach is a theoretical framework that analyzes Sino-American relations through variables such as economic interdependence, institutionalism via international regimes, and democratization. It operates under the premise that interdependent economic development will transform China into a more cooperative state and sustain peaceful bilateral relations. Specifically, liberal optimists argue that as China and the United States increase their interactions through international regimes, the scope of mutual understanding expands, trust is enhanced, and misunderstandings decrease. Generally, liberals perceive democratization as a force that sustains peace. Regarding China's democratization, liberal optimists hold an optimistic view, asserting that economic development without a reliable rule of law will ultimately be constrained. Therefore, they conclude that continuous economic development will eventually lead to political liberalization in China. They also perceive that the democratization process has already progressed to a certain extent as China deepens its reform and opening up. In particular, as China's opening up and economic development have advanced, the middle class within China has grown, and they argue that this middle class is acting as a key driver for political democratization. Consequently, they believe that as China modernizes, it will inevitably become democratized... (continued)