[NSP Report 41] Changes and Prospects in Russia's Alliance and Friendly State Policy in the 21st Century

Professor Shin Beom-sik (辛範植) graduated from the Department of Diplomacy and Graduate School at Seoul National University and received a Ph.D. in Political Science from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Russia. He is currently a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at Seoul National University and the Executive Director of the Association for Slavic Studies. His major works include "Eurasian Challenges and International Relations in the 21st Century" (edited), "Russia's Choice: Post-Soviet Transition and Changes in State, Market, and Society" (co-authored),Russian Nonproliferation Policy and the Korean Peninsula(co-authored), and "Siberian Journey: An Expedition Report by 8 Russia Experts" (co-authored).

I. Introduction

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, having undergone complex domestic and foreign policy changes, is striving to formulate strategies to emerge as a key player in 21st-century global politics with the inauguration of President Dmitry Medvedev in 2008. External challenges can be summarized as the need to respond to the changing global strategy of the U.S. with the Obama administration's inauguration, the shift in the international political landscape due to the global economic crisis, and the increasing instability stemming from the realignment of regional politics. Internal challenges involve creating a stable structure for Russian economic development independent of oil price fluctuations, rational stabilization of sovereign democracy, and overcoming social polarization.

In response to these internal and external challenges, Russia's foreign policy requires "friends" more than ever to strengthen its position and role as a great power and to foster an environment conducive to its development. However, the "friends" of the new, changing century must embody a partnership that differs from the concept of "alliances" based on ideological divisions during the Cold War era.

Indeed, in the rapidly changing international environment following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian elites, in the process of experiencing and overcoming confusion regarding national identity and foreign strategy, keenly felt the necessity to conceptualize their future alliance and friendly state strategies not within the rigid, fixed Cold War framework of alliances, but on a new, amorphous, and multifaceted conceptual basis. Consequently, they are making efforts to construct a new network of alliance and friendly state relations that is highly complex and multi-layered, unlike in the past.

As a result, the network structure of alliances and friendly states that Russia is currently pursuing is characterized by regional fragmentation, and these alliances and friendly states are developing in a complex manner through asymmetrical integration. This transformation is partly attributable to Russia's geographical characteristics as an intermediary located in Eurasia, but it also signifies the diversification and sophistication of the thinking of Russian elites regarding threat perception and response strategies at the global and regional levels, as they have strived to restore Russia's international political status and influence lost amidst the turbulent post-Cold War international politics.

Therefore, this chapter will examine the factors influencing the development of Russia's alliance and friendly state policy since the collapse of the Soviet Union, identify its characteristics, and forecast its future development.

II. Changes in Russia's Perception of the International Environment and Security Strategy

Russia's perception of the rapidly changing world order since the collapse of the Soviet Union has evolved through several significant phases. The first phase was a period of confusion marked by severe internal and external environmental changes experienced during the post-Soviet transition. The second phase was a period of gradual recovery of Russia's influence through Putin's pragmatic, multi-vector foreign policy. The third phase involves pursuing a balanced multipolar order based on Sino-Russian cooperation in response to American unilateralism. The general outline of Russia's perceived surrounding environment, threats, and corresponding foreign policy responses during each phase can be summarized in [Table-1].

Based on [Table-1], let us examine the key characteristics of each period, including how Russia perceives the international environment, its own status, and the appropriate security strategy accordingly... (continued)