[NSP Report 39] Obama Administration's East Asia and Korean Peninsula Alliance Policy

He is currently an assistant professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University. Professor Shin Sung-ho holds a Ph.D. in International Politics from the Fletcher School at Tufts University and has served as a research professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS) of the U.S. Department of Defense, a visiting fellow at the Northeast Asia Program of the Brookings Institution in the U.S., and a visiting fellow at the East-West Center in Washington. His research interests include East Asian security and national strategy, the ROK-US alliance and the Korean Peninsula, and demographic change and Northeast Asian international politics. His recent papers include "Demographic Peace: Rapid Aging and Its Implication for Northeast Asian Arms Rivalry," "The ROK-US Alliance in the 21st Century: A Smart Alliance in the Age of Complexity," and "Two Approaches to Nuclear Terrorism: Bush and Obama."

I. Introduction

Following the Republican Bush administration's eight years, the Obama administration, launched in 2009, heralds significant changes and reforms in its foreign and security policy. President Obama's pragmatic approach differs greatly from the Bush administration, which pursued the idealism of spreading freedom for the sake of the war on terror. However, the Obama administration's foreign and security policy should not be understood solely as a complete break from the previous administration. To properly understand future policies, both change and continuity must be considered. Obama criticized the Bush administration's Iraq War as an unnecessary conflict and made a swift withdrawal from Iraq a key campaign promise. However, this does not mean Obama rejects the fundamental American foreign policy value of promoting liberal democracy. In his foreign and security vision announced during the campaign, Obama set the renewal of American leadership as his primary goal. Obama's objective to maintain and renew America's hegemonic position reflects the unchanging interests and goals of U.S. foreign policy, which has reigned as the world's hegemonic power since World War II. However, Obama emphasizes differentiation from the Bush administration in the means to achieve the same goal. Compared to the Bush administration, which was criticized for its aggressive and unilateral diplomacy, Obama proposes to avoid unnecessary friction with allies and restore international support through multilateral diplomacy. At the same time, he emphasizes America's leading role in addressing environmental and energy issues and in efforts to eradicate global poverty (Obama 2007). However, the extent to which Obama's new approach will be realized is another question. This paper aims to illuminate how the changes and continuity in the Obama administration's foreign and security policy will specifically manifest in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Finally, it will present the policy implications of these changes and continuity for the ROK-US "strategic alliance," which the South Korean government has proposed as an alliance for the 21st century, and suggest our response strategies.

II. Obama Administration's East Asia Alliance Policy

1. Obama, Asia, and the Economic Crisis

President Obama, the first African American U.S. president, is the only U.S. president to have spent his childhood in Asia. During his high school years in Hawaii, at the age of six in 1967, Obama moved to Indonesia with his mother and lived in a working-class neighborhood in Jakarta with his Indonesian stepfather, Lolo, until 1971. His time in Indonesia provided Obama with an opportunity to vividly experience and understand the world outside the United States, particularly Asia. The descriptions of Indonesian circumstances and experiences in the two books Obama wrote before his election demonstrate an insight and depth of understanding unimaginable to the average American (Obama 2004, 28-52; 2006, 271-276). These experiences have given Obama the ability to face the domestic and international problems confronting the United States by understanding the realities of the world outside the superpower America. Although the United States still possesses the unparalleled capabilities and status of a superpower, Obama understands that this very fact can provoke envy and suspicion from others, thereby acting as a disadvantage for the U.S. Furthermore, his time in Indonesia provides key clues for President Obama to possess an understanding and sentiment towards Asia that is qualitatively different from previous U.S. presidents who were centered on Europe across the Atlantic. Hawaii, where Obama spent his adolescence, is also a place where people of color of Asian descent, such as Japanese, Chinese, Koreans, and various Southeast Asians, form the majority along with native Hawaiians, rather than white people. These personal growth experiences and background of Obama will significantly influence future U.S. policy toward Asia.

Nevertheless, Obama's Asia policy is currently less important than overcoming the economic crisis and the war on terror, which are the immediate challenges facing the United States. The Obama administration's primary focus is on overcoming the economic crisis. The U.S. economy is in a comprehensive crisis, with an unemployment rate nearing 10 percent, a collapse in housing values and the decline of the middle class due to the recession, the seemingly endless insolvency of the financial industry that led the U.S. economy with its world-leading profitability and competitiveness, and the collapse of GM, Ford, and Chrysler, the representative companies of the U.S. auto industry. The Obama administration is making every effort to prevent a catastrophic economic downturn akin to the Great Depression of 1929 or Japan's lost decade of the 1990s, as many crisis theorists have warned. To this end, it announced a financial bailout package of over $800 billion immediately after taking office, and America's largest mortgage companies, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, as well as top private financial institutions like AIG and Citibank, are effectively under government control. Simultaneously, it is pursuing bold reforms to address the fundamental problems of the American-style neoliberalism exposed by this financial crisis. President Obama's first address to Congress after taking office focused on overcoming the economic crisis, as well as fundamentally reforming healthcare, energy, the environment, and education (New York Times 2009).

The Obama administration's efforts to overcome the economic crisis, as well as to resolve pressing domestic issues such as healthcare reform and greenhouse gas limitations, which have been debated for decades, foreshadow a reality where foreign and security issues will inevitably be pushed down the policy priority list for the time being. President Obama and his administration are hard-pressed for time, dealing daily with economic indicators showing further decline, continuous reports of potential new insolvencies from banks and large corporations, complex and arduous tug-of-wars with Congress over various reform proposals and budgets, including healthcare, and the numerous policy debates and scandals emerging through the media related to these issues. Nevertheless, the fate of the United States, still the world's preeminent power and influence, continues to present the challenge of addressing various international issues. These include the ongoing war on terror, traditional great power diplomacy such as the rise of China or the containment of Russia, managing alliances in Europe and Asia, energy and environmental issues, and poverty eradication and human rights. The problem is that the U.S. lacks the time and capacity to proactively address these complex external issues as it did in the past. Warnings about the decline of American hegemony, which began to emerge even before the economic crisis, have intensified the debate on the role the U.S. should play in international politics. Although resolving domestic economic issues will undoubtedly be the Obama administration's top priority, the U.S., still the world's greatest hegemon, has an obligation to jointly address the various problems arising from outside. For the Obama administration, Asian policy will be pursued as a means to achieve the goal of overcoming the economic crisis and within the broader framework of U.S. global policy... (to be continued)