[NSP Report 35] Worldviews and Alliances in the Middle East

Professor Nam-Sik In is an adjunct professor at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and is in charge of Middle East Islamic regional studies. Professor In received his bachelor's and master's degrees in political science from Yonsei University and his Ph.D. in Middle Eastern politics from Durham University in the UK. He also served as a correspondent for EBS (Educational Broadcasting System) in the UK and as a visiting researcher at the Centre for Political Science and Strategic Studies at Al-Ahram newspaper in Cairo. His major publications include "Understanding International Conflicts" (2000) and "Prospects and Implications for Establishing a Democratic Government in Iraq" (2004), among others. His research areas are Middle Eastern politics and terrorism. Recent publications include "The Emergence and Meaning of Voluntary Network Terrorism" (2009) and "The Dilemma of Pakistan and the United States" (2008).

I. Introduction

The political instability in the Middle East has become chronic. It harbors a persistent conflict structure to the extent that the expression 'inherent quality of instability' is commonly used. This instability is linked to the fact that a significant number of countries that achieved independence as the post-war colonial system dismantled were in the Middle East-Africa region. Artificial borders were created, and nation-state political communities were established in the Arabian Peninsula, the Levant, and the Maghreb regions, which fundamentally maintained a nomadic tradition at the tribal level. For the majority of the inhabitants of the Middle East, who had lived politically detached lives as provinces of the Ottoman Empire for over five centuries, these were unfamiliar forms of political community. Consequently, national autonomy remained weak. In conjunction with the reorganization of the colonial system, external forces continuously intervened to exert influence over state-building and regime formation within the Middle East. These external factors exacerbated political instability by influencing the internal affairs of newly independent states in the region. The geopolitical significance of the Middle East during the Cold War and interest in oil resources were the primary causes.

In addition to these external factors, internal issues within the Middle East also contributed to regional instability. The overlapping of sectarian and ethnic conflicts and historical dispute factors created a background for the clash of various interests. The combination of cultural, political, religious, and economic factors such as tribalism, Islam, and rent-seeking behavior, which constitute the internal culture of the Middle East, has made it difficult to establish a stable trend. Alliance structures based on identity are double-edged. While they foster internal cohesion and solidarity, they also presuppose 'othering' and 'exclusion.' Therefore, in the Middle East, where kinship, ethnicity, and religious identities are clear and strong, alliance structures based on identity are more likely to exhibit exclusivity. This naturally creates a chronic social conflict structure (Ramsbottom 2005).

Due to the aforementioned internal and external factors, as chaos and conflict have intensified for over half a century, phenomena of alliances and solidarity have begun to emerge in the Middle East. In the early Cold War, reflecting the East-West bloc conflict, alliances like the Baghdad Pact were formed between external powers and Middle Eastern countries, even amidst tensions with former colonial powers, indicating close cooperation. As the Cold War intensified, political solidarity movements based on the 'Arab cause' arose in the Middle East, which, sublimated into Arab nationalism, also attempted to build national and cultural communities, moving away from ideological confrontation.

The collapse of the Cold War engendered new dynamics and a new landscape in the Middle East. With the collapse of the ideological framework that had shaped the conflict structure for half a century, reflections on new conflict structures for the 21st century emerged. In the Middle East, unlike in other regions, civilizational discourse rapidly gained prominence, lending credibility to Huntington's thesis, while Fukuyama's worldview began to spread in the United States and the West. Concurrently, the 'Islamic revival movement,' which had been dormant, began to become fully politicized. The 9/11 attacks brought the anti-terrorism and non-proliferation agenda to the forefront, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq brought about changes in the political landscape of the Middle East. Iran emerged as a significant player, and the number of countries and political groups joining the Iranian Islamic revolutionary line began to increase. Anti-American sentiment prevalent in the Middle East fueled the spread of terrorism, but in a situation where linkage with Al-Qaeda-type Islamic terrorism is difficult, the anti-American and anti-Israeli solidarity led by Iran is gaining strength.

The rise of Iran and the expansion of the Shiite coalition signify the emergence of a new form of alliance structure. Following the decline of Arab nationalism based on cultural communities, an Islamic alliance based on transcendent values has emerged in the Middle East, which was in a state of ideological vacuum. Concurrently, tensions are rising among Sunni Arab authoritarian states, centered around Gulf monarchies and secular republics, signaling the emergence of a kind of 'counter-alliance' structure against Iran and the Shiite coalition. Meanwhile, questions are being raised about how the advent of the Obama administration might influence these dynamics, and coupled with this, there is growing curiosity about whether the alliance between the United States and Israel, which has maintained a classical alliance relationship, will endure.

In this context, this paper first examines the layers of identity that constitute alliances and solidarity in the Middle East and then traces the changes in dominant ideologies based on these identities. The shift from the cultural identity of 'Arab' to the religious identity of 'Islam' is considered a background variable for the recent changes in the Middle East alliance order. By tracking the changes in political alliance formation intertwined with the Islamic revival movement, which is observed as a general political phenomenon in the Middle East, this paper aims to grasp the overall political landscape of the region. Furthermore, it forecasts how the Islamic revival movement, which resisted the Bush administration's strong unilateralist policies, will respond to the Obama administration's new Middle East policy... (to be continued)