EAI Opinion REVIEW 1 : 2009 Security Crisis and Public Opinion as Seen Through Public Opinion Polls

Abstract

Amidst anticipation of the cooperation model between the liberal Obama administration and the conservative Lee Myung-bak administration, North Korea's hardline policies have put the yet-to-be-solidified ROK-US alliance to the test. Tensions are escalating on the Korean Peninsula as North Korea's missile launch preparations are detected and its criticism of the South Korean government's North Korea policy intensifies daily. In its second year in office, the Lee Myung-bak administration faces the dual challenge of forging an ROK-US alliance framework with the new Obama administration while simultaneously resolving the strained inter-Korean relations and the North Korean nuclear crisis.

Public opinion is a variable that must be considered in the Lee Myung-bak administration's efforts to resolve these dual security challenges. In a democratic society, policies lacking public consensus and support are unlikely to succeed. Even policies stemming from sound political conviction and responsibility can face political backlash or escalate into inter-Korean conflict if opposed by the majority of the public. Government policies toward the United States and North Korea are issues highly susceptible to evolving into ideological confrontations between pro-US and anti-US or pro-North Korea and anti-North Korea sentiments. The Lee Myung-bak administration, which faced difficulties early in its term due to the mad cow disease protests and subsequent candlelight vigils, must not only overcome the current security challenges wisely but also react sensitively to shifts in public opinion. It is essential to accurately diagnose the reasons and grounds for opposing public opinion and to make efforts to persuade and gain consensus from dissenting voices.

This paper aims, first, to diagnose the public's sense of security crisis and their desired direction for North Korea and US policy amidst rapidly escalating tensions on the Korean Peninsula following North Korea's missile test. Second, it examines how public security awareness is changing in this process, pointing out the limitations of the logic and frameworks used to explain public security awareness. Finally, it summarizes the political implications for the government to consider, based on the analysis of public opinion.

<Table of Contents>

2009 Security Crisis and Public Opinion

Changes in South Korean Public Perception of North Korea and the US

The 2009 Missile Crisis and Fluctuations in Public Security Awareness

- Deterioration of Perceptions toward North Korea during the 2009 Crisis

- ROK-US Alliance: Transition from Conditional Support Based on Interest to 'Trust-Based Alliance' (신맹)

North Korea Policy Solutions Through Public Opinion: A Policy of Compromise with Both Hardline and Softline Approaches

- Demand for a Hardline Response to Missile Launches

- Dialogue as the Fundamental Solution to North Korean Issues

- Spread of Engagement (Sunshine Policy) and Containment Sentiments

- Growing Nuclear Fatigue: 'Acceptance of North Korea's Nuclear Status'

- The Nuclear Crisis and the ROK-US Alliance: Opportunities and Challenges for the Lee Myung-bak Administration

Reference: Chronology of Key Events Related to North Korea's Missile Launch

<Key Survey Findings>

Regarding the US or Japan intercepting North Korea's missile if it proceeds with a launch:

'Approve' 51.1%

'Disapprove' 42.3%

Regarding South Korea's participation in the Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI), which the government is currently considering:

'It is desirable to participate in PSI to monitor and prevent North Korea's arms exports.' 51.1%

'It is undesirable to participate as it may worsen relations with North Korea and increase tensions on the Korean Peninsula.' 40.6%

Perception of desirable solutions for the North Korean nuclear issue:

'Inter-Korean Summit or Special Envoy Dispatch' is Desirable for 85.7%

The format of the 'Six-Party Talks' is also positively evaluated by 85.2%

55.6% support direct negotiations between North Korea and the US, excluding South Korea

49.4% support 'international sanctions' that could provoke North Korea, and 49.2% support 'PSI including maritime interdiction.'

Regarding strong pressure tactics against North Korea, such as 'US military action' and 'suspension of the Kaesong Industrial Complex/Geumgangsan tourism,' public opinion favoring these measures is 31% and 21.1% respectively.

Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue:

3% responded 'will give up soon'

45% responded 'will give up in the long term'

A prospect that 'a compromise will be reached with North Korea possessing nuclear weapons' was held by 36.6%