[Global NK Commentary] The Possibility and Promotion Strategy for Simultaneous Peaceful Unification of North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan: Based on the Theory of Geopolitical Linkage within the Same Theater (戰區)

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This article seeks to explore the possibility and promotion strategy for the simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan, based on the theory of geopolitical linkage within the same theater (戰區) that encompasses the West Sea. The justification and necessity for the unification of the Korean Peninsula and China/Taiwan are abundant. Furthermore, unification is sufficiently worthwhile as an investment because the strategic benefits of achieving unification far outweigh the perpetual division costs incurred by remaining divided.

The Korean and Chinese peoples possess a strong will to achieve unification, rather than accepting division as destiny. The paths to unification are forceful unification and peaceful unification. Whether North Korea attempts forceful unification through a preemptive nuclear-missile strike, or China attempts to encircle and occupy Taiwan by deploying aircraft carriers, the characteristics of the same theater (戰區) that includes the West Sea mean that a war on the Korean Peninsula or in Taiwan would escalate into a regional conflict, and the power structure would not guarantee victory for either side, leading to mutual destruction.

Moreover, due to geopolitical interconnectedness, even if North and South Korea or China and Taiwan achieve peaceful unification first, it is highly likely to stimulate unification impatience in the other region, leading to attempts at forceful unification. In this scenario, a vicious cycle could occur where the region that first achieved unification becomes embroiled in civil war again due to geopolitical spillover. It can be seen that neither forceful unification nor a phased peaceful unification of North and South Korea and China/Taiwan can guarantee complete unification. This is the background for seriously exploring the path of simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan.

Research Hypothesis

(1) Attempts at unification by force between North and South Korea or between China and Taiwan will, due to the geopolitical characteristics of the same theater (戰區) encompassing the West Sea, become interconnected and escalate into wars in other regions, resulting in failure to unify and ultimately leading to self-destruction and mutual annihilation.

(2) Due to the geopolitical interconnectedness of the Northeast Asian region, if either North and South Korea or China and Taiwan achieves peaceful unification first, it may induce unification impatience in the other region, leading to attempts at forceful unification, and could also cause a vicious cycle where the already unified region is drawn into civil war again.

(3) Recognizing the geopolitical dilemma of unification in North and South Korea and China/Taiwan, the simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan will be the surest way to guarantee complete and sustainable unification.

With this strategic understanding, this article aims to examine the justification and civilizational significance of unification for the Korean Peninsula and China/Taiwan. Subsequently, it will evaluate why unification has not been achieved despite 80 years of division on the Korean Peninsula, and why China, which has advocated for a 'One China' policy, has failed to unify Taiwan. It will also analyze the unification cases of Germany, Yemen, and Vietnam to draw implications. Following this, it will posit scenarios for forceful unification in the Korean Peninsula and China/Taiwan and predict their final outcomes. Through this, it will demonstrate that simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan is the best course of action. Finally, it will explore promotion strategies for simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan and offer policy recommendations.

I. The Justification and Civilizational Significance of Unification

The justification and necessity for North and South Korea, China, and Taiwan to achieve unification are evident.

First, the Korean national community, founded on the principle of benefiting all humanity (Hongik Ingan) and having lived together for over 5,000 years, cannot be separated. The Korean Peninsula, divided not by our will but by foreign powers, must be unified and reborn as a single Korean national community.

China and Taiwan have also pursued unification as a national objective based on the 'One China' principle. Historically and legally, Taiwan is Chinese territory, and the people on both sides of the strait are of the same Chinese ethnicity. After suffering 50 years of Japanese colonial rule following the Sino-Japanese War of 1895, the abnormal division that has persisted due to the Chinese Civil War must be rectified as it is the natural course of history.

Second, unification is also urgently needed for the realization of humanitarianism. The current population of North and South Korea is approximately 79.12 million (South Korea 52.82 million, North Korea 26.30 million), and the population of China and Taiwan is approximately 1.43933 billion (China 1.41604 billion, Taiwan 23.29 million).[1]The suffering of separation experienced by ten million separated families in Korea, 82,000 prisoners of war, and[2]34,000 North Korean defectors must be urgently resolved. In China, it is essential to create a society where the native Taiwanese (85%), descendants of those who migrated to Taiwan after the Chinese Civil War in 1949 (13%), and indigenous peoples (2%) from provinces like Fujian and Guangdong during the Ming and Qing dynasties, overcome their divisions and peacefully coexist as one with mainland China.[3]Third, unification is necessary for the fundamental prevention of war. As long as inter-Korean relations remain in a confrontational standoff, the possibility of a second Korean War cannot be ruled out. Unification must be achieved to prevent the recurrence of the tragedy of the Korean War, which claimed the lives of over 4.46 million people (Korean ethnicity: 3.49 million [South Korea: 1.61 million, North Korea: 1.88 million], US forces: 130,000, Chinese forces: 950,000).

Third, unification is necessary for the fundamental prevention of war. As long as inter-Korean relations remain in a confrontational standoff, the possibility of a second Korean War cannot be ruled out. Unification must be achieved to prevent the recurrence of the tragedy of the Korean War, which claimed the lives of over 4.46 million people (Korean ethnicity: 3.49 million [South Korea: 1.61 million, North Korea: 1.88 million], US forces: 130,000, Chinese forces: 950,000).

<Table 1> Korean War Casualties

Source: Park Dong-chan, "The Korean War Seen Through Statistics" (Seoul: Institute of Military History, 2014)

Furthermore, tensions are escalating in the cross-strait region due to frequent incursions by Chinese fighter jets across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and military tensions between the US and China, and China and Japan are incessant due to displays of force, such as frequently deploying aircraft carriers to encircle Taiwan. There is a possibility of escalation into war if Taiwanese fighter jets that scrambled clash with Chinese fighter jets that violated the median line, or if Chinese forces conducting large-scale displays of force clash with US and Japanese fighter jets and warships that scrambled or set sail in the East China Sea.[4] Unification is also indispensable for guaranteeing lasting peace in Northeast Asia.

<Table 2> Casualties of the Chinese Civil War (Kuomintang-Communist Civil War 1945-1949)

Source: Compiled from casualty and troop loss data of the Chinese Civil War, documents and related historical literature on the Chinese Civil War, civilian damages, and post-war damage reports.

Fourth, the Republic of Korea, which enjoys freedom and prosperity, has a mission to share the same blessings with our North Korean brethren who are suffering from oppression. The Republic of Korea became the first developing country to graduate to a developed country in history, as recognized by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in 2021.[5] It has built a free democratic developed country that pursues universal values such as checks and balances among the legislative, executive, and judicial branches and civil society, human dignity, freedom of religion and the press, the pursuit of private property, and a free market economy. It has also become a technological powerhouse in semiconductors, steel, batteries, shipbuilding, automobiles, nuclear power, and Korean defense industries, and a cultural powerhouse in soft power through K-Pop, dramas, films, literature, fashion, and cuisine. Unification is necessary to share these achievements with our North Korean brethren.

China and Taiwan have also emerged as advanced science and technology powerhouses, but due to the cross-strait standoff, excessive investment in national defense restricts the welfare and civilized life that their citizens should enjoy. Unification is also necessary for the people of both sides of the strait to escape from a wasteful arms race and lead human lives in a more peaceful environment.

Fifth, we seek unification to build an economic powerhouse. As projected by Goldman Sachs, if peaceful unification is achieved, with a unified domestic market of 80 million people and the organic integration of South Korea's capital and technology with North Korea's resources and labor, the Republic of Korea can surpass Japan and Germany to become the world's third-largest economy by 2050.[6] China and Taiwan can also become greater economic powers by ending the arms race and integrating the synergies of their vast markets if they achieve peaceful unification.

Lastly, the surrounding countries that have been directly or indirectly involved in the division of the Korean Peninsula have a historical mission and moral responsibility to restore the Korean Peninsula to its original, whole state. In modern and contemporary history, the Korean Peninsula has been a victim of great power politics. If not for the colonial rule of Japan, if not for the division of the Korean Peninsula along the 38th parallel by the US and the Soviet Union for the purpose of disarming Japanese forces, if not for the Korean War initiated by North Korea with the approval of the Soviet Union and the cooperation of China, and if not for the intervention of Chinese forces when the ROK and UN forces advanced to the Yalu River at the time, the Korean Peninsula would not have been divided for such a long time. The psychological trauma and economic and security costs that our people have endured due to the division are beyond imagination. The surrounding countries must unite the divided Korean Peninsula and liberate it from suffering. China, too, must rise from the division that has become entrenched since the Chinese Civil War and achieve integration.

Meanwhile, the emergence of a unified peaceful Korea and a unified peaceful China has a civilizational significance in completely ending the Cold War structure that has persisted in Northeast Asia. If the division structure is dismantled through strategic compromise and cooperation between the US and China amidst their hegemonic competition, it will be a decisive moment for US-China relations to evolve from confrontation and conflict to a co-evolutionary relationship of mutual development and coexistence.

Furthermore, the liberation of our North Korean brethren, whose human rights have been violated and who suffer from threats to their survival, will send a message of warning and hope to failed states worldwide. The unification of North and South Korea and the simultaneous peaceful unification of China and Taiwan will not only contribute to global peace but also mark a new historical epoch in opening a new global civilized community that organically fuses Eastern and Western civilizations.

II. Evaluation of the Causes for the Continued Division of North and South Korea and China-Taiwan

Eighty years of division on the Korean Peninsula, and the fact that China, which has continuously claimed a "One China" policy since the proclamation of the People's Republic of China in 1949, has not been able to unify Taiwan, are due to a combination of internal and structural external factors.

Germany, a war criminal state in World War II, achieved unification during the process of Cold War de-escalation with the cooperation and support of the victorious powers. In contrast, the reality that the Korean Peninsula, a victim of Japanese colonial rule, was divided by great powers and has not achieved unification to this day is a historical paradox. China, too, must coolly diagnose why it has not been able to revive as a unified Chinese nation after being divided by the Chinese Civil War and seek a prescription.

1. Internal and External Causes for the Continued Division of the Korean Peninsula

The primary reason for the delay in North-South unification is the Korean War, provoked by the North Korean Kim Il-sung regime to communize the Korean Peninsula, and the Kim dynasty's persistent ambition for unification through armed force. After the withdrawal of US forces from South Korea in June 1949, North Korea launched an armed invasion, proclaiming liberation through overwhelming military power. Although unification was within reach as the ROK and UN forces counterattacked and advanced to the Yalu River, the opportunity for unification was lost due to the large-scale intervention of Chinese forces, leading to an unstable state of confrontation for over 70 years, with an armistice line unlike any other in world history, neither war nor peace.

A major factor contributing to the continued division is that surrounding powers such as the US, China, Russia, and Japan have strategically deterred the emergence of a unified Korea led by any single party, and have preferred the status quo. Of course, there have been efforts by the UN and the parties to the peace agreement to overcome the division of the Korean Peninsula. The 7th UN General Assembly in 1953 promoted the political conference stipulated in Article 60 of the Armistice Agreement for the peaceful resolution of the Korean question, and accordingly, a political conference was held in Geneva, Switzerland, on April 26, 1954, to discuss peace and unification on the Korean Peninsula.[7] However, the Geneva Political Conference failed on July 21 due to irreconcilable differences regarding the withdrawal of foreign troops and the political system, and the issue of the Korean Peninsula was returned to the UN.

Subsequently, four-party talks (South Korea, North Korea, US, China) to discuss a peace agreement were held six times in Geneva, Switzerland, from 1997 to 1999, but they failed due to differences in positions among the involved countries regarding the issue of peace agreement parties, the withdrawal of US forces, and the relationship between the peace regime and alliances. Furthermore, from 2005 to 2008, six-party talks (South Korea, North Korea, US, China, Japan, Russia) were pursued. Through the September 19 Joint Declaration in 2005, it was agreed that North Korea would completely dismantle its nuclear weapons, and the relevant parties would commence negotiations on a permanent peace regime for the Korean Peninsula in a separate appropriate forum. However, at the end of 2008, North Korea declared that it could not allow the re-entry of nuclear inspection teams, leading to the collapse of the six-party talks, and ultimately, substantive negotiations to establish a permanent peace regime for the Korean Peninsula have stalled without even commencing.[8] Although efforts have been made through UN Security Council sanctions, etc., against North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile development to ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula, some permanent members of the Security Council have raised the argument of sanctions' futility, thereby undermining the authority of the UN itself. Despite such efforts by the international community for peace and unification on the Korean Peninsula, they have proven insufficient for achieving Korean unification.

Above all, the lack of a unified will among our people to forge our own destiny cannot be denied. We must deeply reflect on whether we have accepted the division that followed liberation as destiny.[9] Over 80 years of division, Korea has emerged as a leading global nation, a free democratic developed country, an economic and technological powerhouse, and the world's 5th-ranked military power. In this process, some segments of Korean society have shown a tendency to distance themselves from unification, fearing that unification might erode the prosperity and achievements they have attained.

In contrast, North Korea has become a closed and isolated state, a hereditary monarchy unprecedented in modern history, which, while proclaiming itself a "strong and prosperous nation," has concentrated all its efforts on strengthening military power, including nuclear weapons and missiles, resulting in a populace suffering from poverty and human rights abuses. Fearing absorption and unification by South Korea due to the overwhelming disparity in national strength, North Korea has put forth the theory of two hostile states as a defensive mechanism to perpetuate the division.

<Table 3> Comparison of National Strength between South and North Korea

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2025 (2025); Central Intelligence Agency, The CIA World Factbook 2025-2026 (Washington, D.C: Skyhorse Publishing, 2025), p.499; Unification Ministry North Korea Information Portal, “North-South Korea Comparative Statistics,” https://nkinfo.uni korea.go.kr/nkp/stats/openapi/kosisView.do?menuId= NKSTA TS1159&statsTy=19 (Accessed: June 14, 2026); Global Trade Statistics Service, K-stat, “2025 Trade Status,” https://stat.kita.net/ (Accessed: June 14, 2026); Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, 『2022 Defense White Paper』(Seoul: Ministry of National Defense, 2023), p.290; “South Korean Military Personnel Decreased by 110,000 in Six Years to 450,000… Below Minimum Levels,” 《JoongAng Ilbo》, August 11, 2025; Korea Policy Briefing, “2026 Defense Budget Confirmed at 65.8642 Trillion Won, a 7.5% Increase from the Previous Year,” December 5, 2025.

Certainly, in the 1990s, North and South Korea signed agreements for reconciliation, non-aggression, and exchange and cooperation, bringing unification closer. Through the first inter-Korean summit and the June 15 Joint Declaration in 2001, it felt as though inter-Korean relations were moving towards unification through independent pursuit of unification, resolution of humanitarian issues, economic, social, and cultural cooperation, and dialogue between authorities. The sinking of the Cheonan in 2010 and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island froze inter-Korean relations. The 2017 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics served as a catalyst for inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation, leading to summits between the leaders of North and South Korea and even developing into North Korea-U.S. summits. However, the breakdown of the second North Korea-U.S. summit in Hanoi led to a situation where all channels were blocked, and North Korea's nuclear missiles continue to be the biggest obstacle to the development of inter-Korean relations.

It became clear how important the will of the people of North and South Korea for unification, consistent unification policy, continuous inter-Korean exchange and cooperation, the North Korean nuclear and missile issue, military confidence-building and arms control, and international support and cooperation are for the unification of the divided Korean Peninsula.

2. Decisive Factors in the Continued Division of China and Taiwan

Meanwhile, the decisive background for China's failure to unify Taiwan lies in the strong intervention and deterrence strategies of countries like the United States and Japan, which value Taiwan's geopolitical and strategic importance. In the early stages of reform and opening up, China prioritized economic growth and refrained from military intervention in cross-strait issues. However, after emerging as a G2 in 2010, it shifted to a hardline stance, stating that it would not rule out the use of force for unification.

In this process, Taiwan has become a crucial hub for the global supply chain of advanced industries such as semiconductors, and a core security axis of the liberal international order. Consequently, the United States, Japan, and other countries can no longer tolerate any unilateral attempts by China to reshape the existing geopolitical balance of power in Northeast Asia. By forming a massive strategic defense barrier to prevent China's unification of Taiwan, the division of the two sides has been prolonged.

<Table 4> Comparison of National Power: China vs. Taiwan

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook 2025 (2025); Central Intelligence Agency, The CIA World Factbook 2025-2026 (Washington, D.C: Skyhorse Publishing, 2025),

While China may believe it can unilaterally resolve the issue of cross-Strait unification, asserting the One China Principle, the geopolitical significance of Taiwan and its status as a technologically advanced democracy make it an international issue. Therefore, resolving cross-Strait unification cannot be achieved without the support and cooperation of the international community, including the United States.

III. Analysis of German, Yemeni, and Vietnamese Unification Cases and Implications

The unification cases of Germany, Yemen, and Vietnam serve as historical mirrors reflecting diverse paths to overcoming division, offering implications for the unification of North and South Korea and cross-Strait relations today.

1. Germany: Unification through Confidence-Building and International Cooperation

German unification was a success story resulting from West Germany's consistent Ostpolitik, continuous exchange and cooperation, and diplomatic efforts that transformed the concerns and opposition of the United Kingdom, France, and the Soviet Union into active support. The two Germanys also effectively leveraged the global historical turning point of the Soviet Union's collapse and the systemic transitions in Eastern Europe. Above all, the strong will of the German people for unification and the voluntary choice of a liberal democratic and market economy system by the citizens of East Germany led to unification.[10]

The German case demonstrates that achieving peaceful unification requires sustained confidence-building based on robust security capabilities and diplomatic capacity to garner the support of neighboring countries.

2. Yemen: Unification through Prior Agreement Followed by Civil War

Yemeni unification began with a dramatic political agreement between North and South Yemen, with almost no foreign intervention. However, internal conflicts over power distribution and military integration erupted due to the inability to overcome the heterogeneity of systems and ideologies. Ultimately, in 1994, after immense costs in civil war and human casualties during the process of North Yemen, which held economic and military superiority, forcibly suppressing the rebellion of South Yemen that attempted secession and reintegrating the country, full unification was achieved.[11]

This starkly illustrates, as a cautionary tale, how hasty peaceful unification, relying solely on political agreements between leaders without preceding economic exchange, cooperation, and socio-cultural integration, is fragile and can trigger brutal civil war at any time.

3. Vietnam: Unification by Force, Violating the Paris Peace Accords

The decisive moment for Vietnamese unification occurred after the signing of the Paris Peace Accords in 1973, which ended the Vietnam War. Following the withdrawal of foreign troops, including the U.S. military, a power vacuum emerged in South Vietnam. In the absence of an international body to enforce and monitor the agreement, North Vietnam violated the peace accords and launched a full-scale surprise attack on the powerless South Vietnam, capturing Saigon on April 30, 1975.[12]

The Vietnamese case shows that a peace agreement without a balance of power between North and South Vietnam and without guarantees cannot achieve true unification and foreshadows unification by force.

4. Comprehensive Implications: Lessons for Korean and Cross-Strait Unification

The implications drawn from the unification cases of Germany, Yemen, and Vietnam for the unification of North and South Korea and cross-Strait relations are profound.

First, for nations divided by civil war, it is crucial to establish a peace regime by signing peace agreements and to create international monitoring bodies to ensure adherence to these agreements, along with peacekeeping forces.

Second, there are two paths to complete unification: one where parties involved in the division and external powers that directly or indirectly intervened reach an agreement on unification and achieve internal integration in economic, military, social, and cultural spheres; and another where, after a certain degree of integration through economic exchange, military confidence-building, arms control, and socio-cultural exchanges while in a divided state, unification is achieved through agreement between the divided parties and the international community. The latter path is more likely to lead to complete unification than the former.

Third, unification diplomacy that secures international support and cooperation based on confidence-building critically contributes to achieving unification.

The people of North and South Korea and of China and Taiwan must foster the will to build a new, free, and prosperous unified nation, while pursuing economic exchange and cooperation, military confidence-building and arms reduction, and socio-cultural exchanges. Furthermore, it is essential to establish consensus on why unification is necessary and what kind of unified nation should be built, to cultivate the will for unification, and to gain support and cooperation through unification diplomacy.

IV. Scenarios and End-State Predictions for Unification by Force on the Korean Peninsula and Cross-Strait

Currently, North Korea and China appear to be prioritizing military buildup, setting aside discussions of peaceful unification. North Korea advocates for a theory of two hostile states, defining South Korea no longer as compatriots but as an enemy to be defeated. It has enacted the Law on the Policy of Nuclear Weapons[13]assigning the mission of territorial integrity to nuclear weapons[14] and is conducting operational training for the occupation of South Korea with tactical nuclear units. Furthermore, it is accumulating combat experience through strengthened military cooperation with Russia and has institutionally secured Russia's intervention in the event of an emergency on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea cannot possibly achieve victory if it launches an armed invasion under the pretext of unification. In the event of war on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea, possessing the world's fifth-largest military, along with Japan and the United States, based on the spirit of Camp David[15] and the Washington Declaration, and the member states of the UN Command will swiftly intervene[16], making the course of the war difficult to predict. Rather than victory for the invading North Korea, the combined forces of South Korea, the U.S., and Japan, along with 18 member states of the UN Command (including the U.S.), will counterattack into North Korean territory and achieve victory in military operations. However, the Korean Peninsula will be devastated in the process.

China, too, frequently deploys its carrier strike groups to conduct naval exercises surrounding Taiwan, heightening international tensions. The United States has established a Denial Defense Line (DDL) along the First Island Chain (FIC), constructing it as the foremost defensive barrier to deter Chinese expansion and a crucial line of defense in the hegemonic competition.[17]The United States has established a Denial Defense Line (DDL) along the First Island Chain (FIC), constructing it as the foremost defensive barrier to deter Chinese expansion and a crucial line of defense in the hegemonic competition.

<Figure 1> U.S. Denial Defense Line in the Indo-Pacific (First Island Chain)

Source: Department of War, 2026 National Defense Strategy Jan 23, 2026, p.4; ”First Island Chain Strategy: US Deterrence and China Challenge,” https://smallwarsjournal.com/2026/03/18/first-island-chain-us-strategy-china-deterrence (accessed: July 26, 2026); Defense News cited in, “US ‘First Island Chain as Axis’… Changes in ROK-US Forces Role Inevitable,” 《Donga Ilbo》, September 30, 2025.

This includes the firm resolve of the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia to defend the liberal international order. While China may believe it can realize its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy with its considerable military buildup, including aircraft carriers and ballistic missiles, it is judged insufficient to counter the multi-domain operations (MDO) capabilities demonstrated by the U.S. in the invasion of Iran. If China, with its limited combat experience, recklessly attempts an invasion of Taiwan, it could lead to irreversible consequences.

1. Prediction of the End-State of a Full-Scale War on the Korean Peninsula

In the event of a full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula, within 90 days of its outbreak, the concentration of artillery fire from North Korea's 8,800 170mm self-propelled howitzers and 5,500 240mm multiple rocket launchers in tunnel positions, totaling 14,300 artillery pieces, and 1,300 ballistic missiles, including Close-Range Ballistic Missiles (CRBM, within 300km), Short-Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBM, 300-1,000km), Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles (MRBM, 1,000-3,000km), Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBM, 3,000-5,500km), and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM, over 5,500km)[18], will result in severe damage to the Seoul metropolitan area, with approximately 490,000 South Korean casualties and 52,000 U.S. military casualties. Including North Korean casualties, the total is estimated to be around 2.5 million.[19] Particularly, if North Korea were to actually deploy its approximately 60 nuclear warheads or biological and chemical weapons, the human cost would be astronomical.

The economic impact would also be catastrophic. South Korea's GDP would contract by approximately 37.5% in the first year of the war. The semiconductor ecosystem, which leads global supply of DRAM (41%) and NAND flash (33%), would be paralyzed, causing the global IT and automotive industries to collapse like dominoes. Consequently, a Great Depression would occur, with losses amounting to approximately $4 trillion, equivalent to 3.9% of global GDP, leading to a 5% GDP reduction in China and a 2.3% reduction in the U.S. Although the Kim Jong-un regime would fall due to the overwhelming strategic counteroffensive of the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces, the entire Korean Peninsula would be reduced to an irrecoverable ruin as the price.[20]

2. Predicting the Final State of Armed Conflict between China and Taiwan

Even if military operations in cross-strait relations were to conclude within a short war of 3-4 weeks, both the United States and China would suffer tens of thousands of casualties and critical losses to their naval and air force capabilities. In such a scenario, China would lose over 11% of its GDP, and the United States would lose 6.6%.[21]The severe impact on maritime trade routes, such as the Strait of Malacca, would also result in extreme damage to neighboring countries. South Korea would face a devastating economic blow, losing 23% of its GDP, and Japan would lose 14.7%, comparable to the war-torn nations themselves.

As recently witnessed in the US military operation against Iran, modern warfare can paralyze international energy supply chains and maritime logistics networks, leading to catastrophic consequences that regress human civilization.

V. Comparative Evaluation of Unification Plans: Profits and Losses of Four Paths and the Final Choice

The outcome will vary significantly depending on the path and method by which the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan overcome division. This paper aims to derive the optimal strategy by comparatively evaluating four hypothetical paths: continued division, unification by force, phased peaceful unification, and simultaneous peaceful unification.

1. Scenario of Continued Division (Status Quo): Perpetuation of Consumptive Costs

As long as the division persists in its current state, both regions will incur astronomical opportunity costs. The Korean Peninsula is currently expending a significant portion of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense spending (approximately 2.7% for South Korea and 25% for North Korea),[22]and is depleting its national capabilities through the recurring threat of war, the persistent "Korea Discount," and the costs associated with circumventing maritime and air routes.

Furthermore, the ongoing cross-strait tensions between China and Taiwan continuously threaten regional peace and stability. This reality underscores the imperative not to neglect the issue of division. Continued division is not a viable path forward under any circumstances.

2. Scenario of Unification by Force: Catastrophic Mutual Annihilation

An act of military aggression by either North and South Korea or China and Taiwan, given their proximity across the Yellow Sea, has the characteristic of escalating into a regional conflict within the same theater of operations.

Scenario 1: China's Invasion of Taiwan

For instance, if China invades Taiwan and its aircraft carriers Liaoning from Dalian and Shandong from Qingdao secure control of the First Island Chain by employing an anti-access/area denial strategy, the western sea control will open a tremendous window of opportunity from North Korea's perspective. This could lead to a spillover effect within the same theater, and if the core forces of the US Forces Korea are also diverted to Taiwan, it would further tempt North Korea to launch a full-scale invasion. This would ultimately lead to the war escalating to the Korean Peninsula, evolving into an East Asian conflict pitting North Korea, China, and Russia against the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia. In such a situation, China's invasion of Taiwan would not only be unachievable but would also result in disaster.

Scenario 2: North Korea's Invasion of South Korea

Conversely, if North Korea launches a full-scale invasion of the South, neutralizing the launch bases for US reinforcement forces in Japan and Guam with numerous ballistic missiles, Russian and Chinese fighter jets would frequently enter South Korea's air defense identification zone, engaging in military posturing. They would then encircle the Korean Peninsula, blocking reinforcements for US and Japanese forces operating in the Korean theater. China would attempt to invade Taiwan by exploiting the concentration of US and Japanese forces on the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean military, with the participation of UN Command member states, would engage North Korean forces. Meanwhile, the US mainland forces, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia would concentrate their military power to counter China's invasion. This would ultimately escalate into an East Asian war, potentially more devastating than the Pacific War. In these circumstances, neither North Korea nor China can guarantee victory. The pursuit of unification through a war with no prospect of victory must not even be contemplated.

If North Korea or China attempts unification by force, there is a high probability of escalation into a full-scale international war between North Korea, China, and Russia on one side, and the United States, Japan, the Philippines, and Australia on the other. In such a situation, not only would the aggressors fail to achieve victory, but Northeast Asia would be devastated, leading to a regression of human civilization. Unification by force is militarily impossible and is a plan that can never be adopted on economic or moral grounds.

3. Scenario of Phased Peaceful Unification: The Danger of Geopolitical Headwinds

While peaceful unification is the only viable option, it is crucial to confront the inherent risks that arise when either the Korean Peninsula or China and Taiwan achieve peaceful unification at different times.

Scenario 1: Peaceful Unification of the Korean Peninsula First

If the Korean Peninsula achieves unification first, China, which is sensitive to the expansion of maritime powers into the peninsula, may become obsessed with the urgency of unification and be unable to resist the temptation of forcibly unifying Taiwan.

Scenario 2: Peaceful Unification of China and Taiwan First

If China and Taiwan achieve unification first, North Korea, perceiving itself as having lost its rear support due to the transitional period towards a unified China, may face a regime crisis and attempt a military unification of the Korean Peninsula through adventurous preemptive nuclear strikes.

Ultimately, peaceful unification of either the Korean Peninsula or China and Taiwan could trigger a geopolitical spillover, leading to military escalation in the other region, and subsequently drawing the already achieved peaceful unification back into a vortex of war and civil unrest, creating a vicious cycle.

4. Scenario of Simultaneous Peaceful Unification: A Structural Solution

In conclusion, neither continued division, unification by force, nor phased sequential peaceful unification can guarantee lasting peace in Northeast Asia.

The only and best way to overcome the dilemma of geopolitical interdependence in the unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan is for the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan to pursue and achieve simultaneous peaceful unification through close strategic coordination.

VI. Strategy for Pursuing Simultaneous Peaceful Unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan

To realize this ambitious goal of simultaneous peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan, a meticulously designed master plan is required.

Who should take the lead? Amidst the complex dynamics between South Korea, North Korea, the United States, and China, the key nation that must play the role of a catalyst for unification is not the United States, China, or North Korea, but the Republic of Korea.

<Figure 2> The Dynamic Relationship between South Korea, North Korea, the United States, and China, and South Korea's Role

In reality, South Korea has a strong alliance with the United States, cemented by the Mutual Defense Treaty signed on October 1, 1953. It is also a diplomatic partner with China, having established diplomatic relations on August 24, 1992. Furthermore, with North Korea, it shares a special relationship aimed at unification, as outlined in the Basic Agreement on Relations between the South and the North, which took effect on February 19, 1992. The United States and China are in a hegemonic rivalry, and the United States and North Korea are in an adversarial relationship, not even having diplomatic ties. China and North Korea are allies under the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance, though their alliance is strained. North Korea maintains a cooperative relationship with Russia but is relatively isolated from the international community.

By leveraging its network assets, South Korea can play a linchpin role. It can guide North Korea, the United States, and China to the negotiating table to lead a grand bargain for the simultaneous peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan.

1. Strategy Towards the United States: Reducing Defense Burden and Ensuring Stable Securing of the Indo-Pacific Defense Line

The core argument to persuade the United States to support the simultaneous peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan is the drastic reduction of strategic burden and the stable securing of the Indo-Pacific defense line. A unified Korean Peninsula will never adopt an anti-US stance and will maintain a firm pro-US and friendly relationship. The status and mission of the US Forces Korea will transition from managing the North Korean threat to maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula and serving as a regional stability provider.

Through this, the United States can significantly reduce the costs of managing the division of the Korean Peninsula. Simultaneously, it can more stably secure the Indo-Pacific defense line, extending from Japan, a unified Korean Peninsula, Okinawa, the Philippines, and the South China Sea, which can block the power projection of Russia and China.

2. Strategy Towards China: Resolving the Security Dilemma of "Lips and Teeth" and Achieving Peaceful Reunification of Taiwan

China's greatest strategic concern is the forward deployment of US military bases along its border with a unified Korean Peninsula. Through a four-party peace treaty on the Korean Peninsula among South Korea, North Korea, the United States, and China, the mission of the US Forces Korea after unification will be contractually guaranteed as peacekeepers on the Korean Peninsula. The continued presence of US Forces Korea south of the Han River will not only serve as a regional stabilizer not aimed at China but could also contribute to China by deterring a unified Korea from radical nuclear armament or Japan's militarization.

Simultaneously, if the United States, South Korea, and North Korea support China's phased unification under the "One China, Two Systems" principle[23]to achieve peaceful unification, China will accomplish its greatest national aspiration since its founding—a unified China—without military sacrifice. Such a grand compromise will be a decisive moment in transforming Northeast Asia from a power-confrontation dynamic to a multilateral system of coexistence and cooperative security.

3. Strategy Towards North Korea: Institutionalizing Regime Security and Ensuring Economic Soft Landing

The key keywords for persuading the North Korean regime are the alleviation of fears of absorption unification and the recognition of the transitional regime's autonomy. By concluding a peace treaty legally guaranteed by the United States, China, and both Koreas, transforming the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) into a peace zone, and reorganizing the Military Armistice Commission into an international peace monitoring organization involving the UN, North Korea's regime security will be firmly guaranteed. Furthermore, US Forces Korea will transition to peacekeepers on the Korean Peninsula and continue their stationing. This serves as a meaningful measure to deter North Korea from violating the peace treaty and invading the South. Within this framework, US Forces Korea are not a threat to North Korea.

Through the peace treaty, North Korea will receive recognition of its regime, completely dismantle its nuclear weapons, have all sanctions against it lifted, establish diplomatic relations with the US and Japan, shift its defense budget to civilian economy, and participate in economic development with South Korea, China, the United States, as well as the World Bank, ADB, and AIIB.

VII. A Four-Stage Roadmap for Pursuing Simultaneous Peaceful Unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan

Only by the Republic of Korea proactively designing and leading this grand geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape can we prevent the folly of being sacrificed through collusion amidst the conflicting interests of major powers. The four-stage roadmap for achieving the simultaneous unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan is as follows:

Stage 1: Internal Coordination among South Korea, the US, and Japan, and Establishing the Stability-Providing Role of US Forces Korea

Clearly share with the United States and Japan the vision of a new unified Korean Peninsula characterized by denuclearization, freedom, peace, and prosperity. This aligns with the official statement of support for a free and peaceful unified Korean Peninsula by the leaders of South Korea, the US, and Japan at the Camp David Summit on August 18, 2023.[24]Agree to the continued stationing of US Forces Korea as peacekeepers even after the conclusion of a peace treaty.

Stage 2: Grand Bargain between the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan, and Official Proposal for Simultaneous Peaceful Unification

After South Korea, through separate working-level negotiations with North Korea, the United States, and China, reaches an agreement to pursue negotiations for the simultaneous peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan among the leaders of South Korea, North Korea, the United States, and China, the South Korean government will officially propose a four-party summit among these leaders at the UN General Assembly to realize the simultaneous peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan.

Stage 3: 2+2 Two-Track Multilateral Talks and Korean Peninsula Peace Treaty-One China, Two Systems Unification

To conclude agreements on the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, a peace treaty, and the simultaneous peaceful unification of China and Taiwan under the "One China, Two Systems" principle, the channels for negotiating a peace treaty for the Korean Peninsula and the channels for unification under the "One China, Two Systems" principle between China and Taiwan will be organically coordinated. The United States and China will mutually cross-guarantee the agreed-upon terms, and a treaty for the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan will be signed, stipulating a clause for the simultaneous effect of the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan.

Stage 4: Establishment of a Northeast Asian Security Regime and Soft Landing for a Unified Korea and Unified China

By institutionalizing a Northeast Asia Security Regime involving a unified Korea, a unified China, the United States, Japan, Russia, and Mongolia, the simultaneous peaceful system of the Korean Peninsula, China, and Taiwan will be firmly established.

For a unified Korea and a unified China to take root as complete nation-states and to regularly discuss and resolve complex security issues such as regional arms races, territorial disputes, and large-scale disasters, the establishment of an institutional architecture for a Northeast Asian security cooperation body is essential. The vision for Northeast Asian peace and cooperation envisions a summit of Northeast Asian leaders as the highest body, with ministerial-level consultations in the form of a strategic dialogue, working-level bodies such as the Security and Economic Cooperation Committee and the Confidence-Building Committee, and a supporting secretariat. The Secretariat for Trilateral Cooperation among Japan, China, and South Korea, currently operating in Seoul, will be expanded to serve as the secretariat for the Northeast Asian security cooperation regime.

[Figure 3] Northeast Asian Security Cooperation Architecture

Source: Chung Kyung-young, "Building a Military Security Regime in Northeast Asia: Feasibility and Design," PhD Dissertation, The University of Maryland (2005), p.347.

VIII. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations

Without the peaceful unification of the Korean Peninsula, lasting stability in the Taiwan Strait cannot be achieved, and without peace in the Taiwan Strait, the peace and prosperity of the Korean Peninsula cannot be guaranteed. It is necessary to shift our thinking to recognize the geopolitical interconnectedness of North and South Korea and China/Taiwan within the same theater of operations, and to create peace and common prosperity in Northeast Asia through the simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea and China/Taiwan.

Furthermore, as history has shown, the Korean Peninsula has been a stage for great power politics. Japan invaded Joseon in 1592 under the pretext of conquering Ming China; the Qing Dynasty launched the Manchu invasion of Joseon in 1636; the First Sino-Japanese War broke out on the Korean Peninsula in 1894; the Russo-Japanese War occurred in the Korean Strait and the Yellow Sea region in 1904; Japan eventually colonized Joseon and used the Korean Peninsula as a logistical base to invade Manchuria in 1937 and mainland China in 1941; the United States and the Soviet Union, victors of the Pacific War, divided and occupied the Korean Peninsula; and Kim Il-sung invaded South Korea at the instigation of the Soviet Union. We must recognize that there have been power struggles surrounding the Korean Peninsula and implement measures that can fundamentally prevent armed conflict between hegemonic powers after unification.

In this context, the status and role of the U.S. Forces Korea should be transformed into a role of maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula and acting as a balancer and stabilizer in Northeast Asia. The Military Armistice Commission, which oversaw the implementation of the Armistice Agreement, should be transformed into a UN supervisory body responsible for implementing the Peace Treaty, thereby enabling a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula to achieve complete unification.

The vision for a constructive bilateral relationship of strategic stability, agreed upon by U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping during their summit in Beijing on June 14, 2026,[25]enhances the feasibility of the discourse on simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea and China/Taiwan. China adheres to the One China principle and insists on the exclusion of any foreign intervention, while frequently conducting large-scale exercises encircling Taiwan. The international community interprets this as an intention to forcibly occupy Taiwan for unification. Witnessing the U.S.-Iran war, we are realizing how costly and reckless it is to pursue national strategic goals through military force. Some Chinese elites have begun to recognize the catastrophic risks and international isolation that would result from the forceful unification of Taiwan. The formation of a forward-looking trend towards pursuing peaceful unification is encouraging.

The strategy of simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea and China/Taiwan is the only path to achieve peaceful and sustainable unification. If the security of the North Korean regime can be guaranteed through a grand bargain among the U.S., China, South Korea, and North Korea, North Korea will have no grounds to refuse.

When the leaders of South Korea, North Korea, the U.S., and China agree on the great cause of simultaneous peaceful unification of North and South Korea and China/Taiwan, and are reborn as a new unified Korea and a unified China that are free and prosperous, they will be remembered in history as leaders who ended the Cold War in Northeast Asia and contributed to human peace. We anticipate the courageous decision of the leaders of South Korea, North Korea, the U.S., and China to create a new history. ■

References

Books

Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, "2022 Defense White Paper" (Seoul: Ministry of National Defense, 2023).

Park, Dong-chan, "The Korean War in Statistics" (Seoul: Institute of Military History, 2014).

Chung, Kyung-young, "Strategy for Promoting Unification Diplomacy and Security," in "Strategies for Promoting North-South Integration" (Seoul: GDC Media, 2024).

Bush, Richard C., translated by Park, Haeng-yong and Lee, Yong-bin, "Taiwan on the Brink: The International Politics of U.S.-China Competition and Cross-Strait Relations" (Paju: Hanul Academy, 2023).

Cancian, Mark F., Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (CSIS, January 9, 2023).

Central Intelligence Agency, The CIA World Factbook 2025-2026 (Washington, D.C.: Skyhorse Publishing, 2025).

IMF, World Economic Outlook 2025 (2025).

Papers

Policy Briefing Korea, "2026 National Defense Budget Confirmed at 65.8642 Trillion Won, a 7.5% Increase from the Previous Year," December 5, 2025.

"A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks (Part I)," Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, Global Economics Paper No.188.

Chung, Kyung-young, "Building a Military Security Regime in Northeast Asia: Feasibility and Design," PhD Dissertation, The University of Maryland (2005).

The White House, "The Spirit of Camp David: Joint Statement of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States," August 18, 2023.

Newspapers and Internet

Global Trade Statistics Service, K-stat, "2025 Trade Status," https://stat.kita.net/ (accessed: June 14, 2026).

"Active Military Personnel Decreased by 110,000 in Six Years to 450,000... Below Minimum Strength," JoongAng Ilbo, August 11, 2025.

"U.S. 'First Island Chain as Central Axis'... Change in Role of U.S. Forces Korea is Inevitable," Dong-A Ilbo, September 30, 2025.

"2nd ROK-UN Command Member States Defense Ministers Meeting to be Held in Seoul on September 10," Yonhap News, September 5, 2024.

Ministry of Unification North Korea Information Portal, "North-South Korea Comparative Statistics," https://nkinfo.unikorea.go.kr/nkp/stats/openapi/kosisView.do?menuId=NKSTATS1159&statsTy=19 (accessed: June 14, 2026).

"Korean War Armistice Agreement," https://ko.wikisource.org/wiki/한국전쟁_정전협정문 (accessed: July 6, 2026).

"Korean Peninsula War Would Cause 5.5 Trillion Won in Damages... 'Twice the Impact of Russia-Ukraine War'," Electronic Times, July 30, 2024.

"China and the U.S. Agreed to ‘Strategic Stability’ in Beijing," Council on Foreign Relations, May 18, 2026.

"First Island Chain Strategy: US Deterrence and China Challenge," https://smallwarsjournal.com/2026/03/18/first-island-chain-us-strategy-china-deterrence (accessed: July 26, 2026);

"Goldman Sachs: GDP of “United Korea” Will Outpace Those of Japan, Germany, and France in 2050," Maeil Business News, September 22, 2009.

"New Vision for Constructive Relationship of Strategic Stability should Guide Sino-US ties," China Daily.COM.CN, May 14, 2026.

"UN agency upgrades Korea's status to developed economy," Korea Net, July 5, 2021.

[1]The Central Intelligence Agency, The CIA World Factbook 2025-2026(Washington, D.C: Skyhorse Publishing, 2025), p.499.

[2]"Korean War Prisoners of War," https://namu.wiki/w/6.25%2.0%EC%A0%84%EC%9F%81/%EA%B5%AD%EA%B5%B0%2.0%ED%8F%AC%EB%A1%9C(accessed: July 7, 2026): According to UNC, there were approximately 82,000 ROK prisoners of war during the Korean War. After the Armistice Agreement, South Korea and the UN forces repatriated over 30,000 North Korean prisoners of war, but North Korea only returned 8,726 ROK prisoners of war during the prisoner exchange.

[3]"Taiwan," https://namu.wiki/w/%EB%8C%80%EB%A7%8C(accessed: July 7, 2026).

[4]Bush, Richard C., translated by Park, Haeng-yong and Lee, Yong-bin, "Taiwan on the Brink: The International Politics of U.S.-China Competition and Cross-Strait Relations" (Paju: Hanul Academy, 2023), pp.181-211.

[5]"UN agency upgrades Korea's status to developed economy," Korea Net, July 5, 2021.

[6]"A United Korea? Reassessing North Korea Risks (Part I)," Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, Global Economics Paper No: 188; "Goldman Sachs: GDP of “United Korea” Will Outpace Those of Japan, Germany, and France in 2050," Maeil Business News, September 22, 2009.

[7]“Armistice Agreement of the Korean War,”https://ko.wikisource.org/wiki/한국전쟁_정전협정문(Accessed July 6, 2026): Article 60 of the Armistice Agreement: “For the purpose of the peaceful settlement of the Korean question, the Commanders of the United Nations Command and of the Korean People’s Army and the Chinese People’s Volunteers shall, within three (3) months after the signing and coming into effect of the Armistice Agreement, recommend to the respective governments of the countries of which they are in command, the convening within a specified period of a higher level political conference of the two parties concerned, with a view to the withdrawal of all foreign troops from Korea and the peaceful settlement of the Korean question.”

[8] Jeong Gyeong-young, “Strategy for Promoting Unification Diplomacy and Security,” in *Strategies for Promoting North-South Integration*, ed. by AKU Professors Association, Korea Global Peace Foundation (Seoul: GDC Media, 2024), p. 150.

[9] Kang Won-taek, Kim Sung-kyung, Ma Sang-yoon, and Cho Dong-ho, *80 Years of Division, Reflections for Unification* (Seoul: 21st Century Books, 2026).

[10] Bernd Oettinghause et al., *German Unification, A Miracle of Freedom and Harmony*, trans. by Kim Won-won (Seoul: Gukmin Books, 2019); Kim Dong-myung, *German Unification and the Choice for the Korean Peninsula* (Paju: Hanul Academy, 2010).

[11] Park Sung-ki, “Case Study of Unification and Integration of Divided Nations,” in *Strategies for Promoting North-South Integration*, ed. by AKU Professors Association, Korea Global Peace Foundation (Seoul: GDC Media, 2024), pp. 583-585.

[12] Jeong Gyeong-young, Oh Heung-guk, Jang Sam-yeol, Jeong Ji-yong, and Choi Yong-ho, *Strategy for Promoting Self-Reliant Security and Peace Regime: Focusing on the Lessons of the ROK-US Alliance and Vietnam's Unification* (Seoul: Dooseo Chulpan KCP7·27, 2018).

[13] “Will Effective Countermeasures Emerge for the 'North Korean Nuclear Force Policy Law' Hinting at Preemptive Strikes… Consultations Between South Korea and the U.S. Also Gaining Momentum,” KBS News, September 17, 2022.

[14] “Two Meanings Hidden in Kim Jong-un’s ‘Territorial Conquest’,” *Sisa In*, March 8, 2024: North Korean government statement on November 29, 2017, “North Korea has developed strategic weapons for the sake of ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country.’”

[15] The White House, “The Spirit of Camp David: Joint Statement of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States,” Aug 18, 2023: On August 18, 2023, the leaders of South Korea, the United States, and Japan agreed to jointly respond to regional challenges, provocations, and security threats.

[16]“Korean War Military Armistice Agreement,”https://ko.wikipedia.org/wiki/한국_군사_정전_협정(Accessed July 8, 2026): At the time of the signing of the Armistice Agreement on July 27, 1953, UN Command member states confirmed in the Washington Declaration that “if an armed attack in violation of the principles of the UN Charter recurs on the Korean Peninsula, they will again unite to counter it immediately.” Accordingly, UN Command reinforcement personnel from UN Command member states (Denmark and Germany added, totaling 18 countries) participate in the Freedom Shield exercise annually in Korea; “Second ROK-UN Command Member States Defense Ministers Meeting to be Held in Seoul on the 10th,” *Yonhap News*, September 5, 2024: Since 2023, South Korea has been holding the ROK-UN Command Member States Defense Ministers Meeting annually under the slogan of fighting together under one flag and one spirit for the peace and freedom of the Korean Peninsula.

[17] Department of War, 2026 National Defense Strategy(Jan 23, 2026), p. 4.

[18] Ministry of National Defense, Republic of Korea, *2022 Defense White Paper* (Seoul: Ministry of National Defense, 2023), pp. 27 & 31-32.

[19] Don Oberdorfer, The Two Koreas: A Contemporary History(Basic Books, 2001), p. 315.

[20] “Damage of 5,500 Trillion Won in Case of Korean Peninsula War… ‘Twice the Shock of Russia-Ukraine War’,” *Electronic Times*, July 30, 2024.

[21] Mark F. Cancian, Matthew Cancian, and Eric Heginbotham, The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan(CSIS, January 9, 2023).

[22] Central Intelligence Agency, The CIA World Factbook 2025-2026(Washington, D.C.: Skyhorse Publishing, 2025), pp. 497-506.

[23] Richard C. Bush, trans. by Park Haeng-yong and Lee Yong-bin, *Taiwan on the Brink: The International Politics of U.S.-China Competition and Cross-Strait Relations* (Paju: Hanul Academy, 2023), pp. 181-211.

[24] The White House, “The Spirit of Camp David: Joint Statement of Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the United States,” Aug 18, 2023.

[25] “China and the U.S. Agreed to ‘Strategic Stability’ in Beijing,” Council on Foreign Relations, May 18, 2026; “New Vision for Constructive Relationship of Strategic Stability should Guide Sino-US ties,“ China Daily.COM.CN, May 14, 2026.

■ Jeong Gyeong-young_Co-Chair of the Korea-International Working Group on Unification; Former Professor, Graduate School of International Studies, Hanyang University.

■ Editor: Lee Sang-jun_EAI Research Fellow; Oh In-hwan_EAI Senior Research Fellow

    Inquiries: 02 2277 1683 (ext. 211) | leesj@eai.or.kr