在亚太战场上发动一场心理战：美国对中华人民共和国

佐世保海上自卫队资料馆 · 吴大烈 · 早稻田大学

引言

九州是构成日本列岛的四个大岛之一。九州位于日本西南部，长期以来与西方帝国和朝鲜进行交流。作为贸易和文化的中心，九州是理解日本国际政治框架和方向的必访之地。“为什么日本能在西方文明到来后，比中国和韩国更早地接受并发生变化？”怀揣着这样的疑问，12月26日，沙龙第九期开始了考察之旅。虽然我本人对日本的历史和文化一直有所了解，但这次机会让我深刻认识到了九州地区在国际政治学中的特殊意义。

图1. 2017.12.27 在佐世保海上自卫队资料馆前，沙龙第九期成员与

河永善老师合影

抵达福冈机场，在九州西北部考察期间，我一直在思考九州的日本领导人看到了什么、认识到了什么，又怀有怎样的信念？在四面临海、天皇与幕府权力斗争等政治动荡中，日本近代化的领导者们是如何解读变化的国际力量格局的？为什么在日本试图学习西方文明的尝试失败了，而日本却能相对和平地实现文明的近代化？最重要的是，这两个问题在为期两天的考察中一直困扰着我。4. 在亚太战场上发动一场心理战_佐世保海上自卫队资料馆

从小到大，我通过观看讲述太平洋战争和日本殖民朝鲜半岛的作品，对日本的帝国主义和军国主义怀有憎恨。“如果西方帝国主义没有在东方扎根，那么现在被敌意包围的东亚国际关系是否就不存在了？”“为什么西方富国强兵的范式会最先传到日本？”通过这次参观佐世保海上自卫队资料馆，我发现了一些能够在一定程度上解答这些疑问的线索。

在我看来，日本国际政治的开端可以用“模仿”和“创造”这两个词来解释。日本领导人看到日益强大的西方帝国，感到恐惧，于是推翻了全面禁止与外部势力交流的决定，并积极引进他们的文化。

图2. 佐世保海上自卫队资料馆留影处。初次参观佐世保海上自卫队资料馆时，最让我难以置信的是日本吸收英国和美国的海军技术，建立强大海军的历史。看到他们详细分类和列举至今为止日本拥有的驱逐舰、航空母舰、海军战力资产以及武器的努力，一方面我感到惊叹，另一方面也感到惋惜。惋惜于至今未能拥有世界顶尖海军力量和历史的韩国的处境，以及他们将目前为防御目的而创建的日本海上自卫队与日本帝国主义海军的历史混为一谈的历史认识。也许是我过于敏感，但通过佐世保海上自卫队资料馆，我对进一步研究和了解驻扎在佐世保的海上自卫队和美军产生了学术上的好奇心。

4. 在亚太战场上发动一场心理战_佐世保海上自卫队资料馆 图3. 佐世保美军基地航拍图

综合观看的各种资料，我得出了结论：佐世保

美军基地过去和现在都是影响东北亚安全和力量

平衡的重要存在。当然，驻日美军第七舰队的主力部署在

冲绳和横须贺，但面对不断变化的东亚局势以及中国

的扩张主义，我很好奇“美国治世”（Pax Americana）会持有怎样的战略牌？那么，与美国保持牢固同盟的日本，对于中国目前积极施加影响力的南海问题，又持何种看法？

为了强调佐世保海军基地的重要性，我调查了美国和

中国在亚太舞台上关注的焦点是什么，以及为何亚太地区

会成为海上领土争端的中心。最后，我阐述了日本佐世保海军基地为何将在未来展开的

美中影响力争夺战中发挥重要作用。

为期两天半的日本实地考察，以及五个月的讨论和学习，我从现实主义视角探讨了东亚军事国际政治的方向。虽然仍有许多不足之处，但我希望我所看到的东亚国际政治视角，能为今后接触国际政治的人们的研究提供哪怕一点点的帮助。最后，我想对理解和指导我的河永善老师以及沙龙第九期成员们表示感谢。

I. 概述

为了强调佐世保海军基地的重要性，我们调查了美国和

中国在亚太舞台上关注的焦点，以及亚太地区为何会成为海上

领土争端的中心。

最后，我们阐述了日本佐世保海军基地为何将在未来展开的

美中影响力之争中发挥重要作用。

通过为期两天半的日本实地考察，以及为期五个月的

讨论与学习，我们从现实主义的视角探讨了东亚军事国际政治的走向。尽管仍有许多不足之处，但我希望我所看到的东亚国际政治视角，能对未来接触国际政治的人们的研究有所帮助。最后，我想向理解并指导我的河永善教授和“爱之屋”第九期成员表示感谢。

I. 概述

石油储备（美国国防部1）。但最重要的是，全球三分之二的石油运输经过印度-亚太地区的国际水道（美国国防部2）。鉴于该地区的物质和商业重要性，国际社会不惜一切代价保护商业航行自由。此外，在该地区部署海上力量不仅保障了商业航行，还确立了安全利益。具体来说，在该地区部署军事资产可以起到安全威慑作用，在威胁升级之前将其化解。鉴于新认定的经济和军事利益，尽管美国已正式宣布其在该地区作为调解者的角色，但亚太地区的国家之间已存在大量的领土和经济争端。

I. 概述

在美利坚合众国与中华人民共和国（PRC）就亚太地区日益紧张的局势中，有人猜测这种分歧将引发两国之间的冲突。尽管未来太平洋战区的走向尚不可知，但显而易见的是，谁在该地区建立稳固的存在，谁就将保持或继承“全球霸主”的称号。这一论断的理由是，亚太地区被广泛认为是各种活动的中心枢纽，是促进海上自由贸易、孕育多样海洋生物和资源以及作为海上军事行动战略要地的焦点。中国作为崛起中的大国，其未来和福祉取决于能否保证获得这些功能。作为对此根本重要性的回应，中国一直在不懈地努力改善和扩大其在亚太地区的影响力。然而，美国和该地区其他国家也希望继续获得该地区的准入权，因此亚太地区的现状不可避免地将经历动荡。

在本篇论文中，我将探讨亚太地区，特别是南海地区存在的显性与隐性利益。例如，我将解释该战略区域争端的构成、该地区的领土和海洋主张以及主要参与者的战略。在主要参与者关于亚太地区的战略之外，我将进一步将佐世保海军基地作为美国为应对中国在亚太地区快速军备而可能采取的战略选择。尽管佐世保海军基地在当前美日同盟的军事事务中不再处于战略首位，但一旦亚太地区出现现状的转变，其重要性将大大提升。

II. 亚太地区（南海）

根据

联合国关于南海现状估计的报告，仅南海就占全球渔业产量的10%以上，以及约110亿桶

和1.9亿立方英尺的天然气和图1. 南海的重要性，数据来源：美国国防部

石油储量（美国国防部1）。但最重要的是，全球石油运输量的三分之二通过印度-亚太地区的国际水道（美国国防部2）。鉴于该地区的物质和商业重要性，国际社会不惜一切代价保护商业运输的自由。此外，在该地区部署海上力量不仅保障商业运输，还能建立安全利益。具体来说，在该地区部署军事资产可以起到安全威慑作用，在威胁升级之前将其削弱。鉴于新承认的经济和军事利益，尽管美国已正式宣布其作为该地区调解者的角色，但亚太地区国家之间已存在大量的领土和经济争端。

石油储备（美国国防部 1）。但最重要的是，全球三分之二的石油运输途经印度-亚太地区（美国国防部 2）的国际水道。鉴于该地区的物质和商业重要性，国际社会不惜一切代价保护商业航运自由。此外，在该地区部署海上力量不仅保障了商业航运，还确立了安全利益。具体来说，在该地区部署军事资产能够起到安全威慑作用，在威胁升级之前将其化解。考虑到新确认的经济和军事利益，尽管美国已正式宣布其在该地区的调解者角色，但亚太地区各国之间存在着大量的领土和经济争端。

根据《联合国海洋法公约》，主权国家拥有专属经济区（EEZ）。EEZ是一个海域，赋予一个国家从其海岸基线起200海里范围内进行经济开发的权利（联合国第56条）。然而，当中国和其他国家开始建造人工岛礁时，赋予这一权利就引发了许多疑问。将人工岛礁置于EEZ的保护之下仍然是一个有争议的案例，可能引发亚太地区国家之间的争端。除了专属经济权之外，海上规则还规定了航行自由；允许包括军舰在内的外国船只自由航行于国际水域（国会研究服务局2017年第14页）。然而，亚太国家对海上规则的应用和解释各不相同，从而引发了军事争端。总而言之，亚太地区的海上和物质争端在很大程度上可归因于该地区日益增长的利益冲突、军事化以及国际水域规则的模糊性。

III. 亚太地区的主要参与者

尽管许多国家在亚太地区拥有复杂的利益，但我将特别关注两个主要大国：美利坚合众国和中华人民共和国。这两个大国符合以下条件：1）一个在亚太地区拥有相对较大经济和安全利益的国家；2）拥有可能打破亚太地区力量平衡的军事能力。

利益联系（美国）

“美国希望确保亚太地区持续的经济进步……全球十大集装箱港口中有八个位于亚太地区，每年约有30%的世界海运贸易经过南海，其中包括约1.2万亿美元运往美国的货物”

（美国国防部，亚太海事安全战略）

正如报告中所明确指出的，美国在经济上有动力保障海上贸易和提高该地区的军事戒备，从而消除可能扰乱贸易自由流通的敌对势力。

不仅是经济重要性，亚太地区也是美国与其盟友和伙伴（包括澳大利亚、日本、大韩民国、菲律宾、泰国、印度、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、蒙古、新西兰、新加坡、斯里兰卡和越南）的主要行动区域（美国太平洋司令部2017年第25-29页）。作为公认的全球霸主，美国在安全方面有义务保护其盟友免受任何潜在威胁，并维护有利于美国在亚太地区领导地位的法治。

利益联系（中华人民共和国）中华人民共和国

前所未有的经济增长水平引起了政治局领导人的警觉，

能源消耗与生产增长图2. 中华人民共和国能源消耗与生产增长

resources. In

response to the mounting energy needs, they have been searching means to constantly run their industry engine. Unfortunately, along with the heavy dependence on foreign energy supplies, the current economic diagrams already point the PRC’s waning growth in the economic power. Yet still increasing, the economic and social inequality and ineffective domestic policy lead to decrease in economic growth in PRC (U.S-China Economic and Security Review Commission 2017 3). The worsening circumstance along with the environmental issues in PRC not only necessitated the decision makers to devise a sustainable and eco- friendly energy source that could substitute the imported fuel, it also enforced the leaders to acquire safe energy transit free of foreign interference (Erickson 2017 131-152). This volatility puts PRC to set adamant policy acquiring military stronghold in Asia-Pacific region where its secure logistics transit can take place.

Moreover, the current research on natural resources has confirmed that the natural resources hidden under the sea bed of South China Sea could become a game changer for PRC, for it could vitalize and provide constant flow of energy production in the future. To be specific, in 2011, the PRC government has positive conjectures that the region will serve as a “Second Persian Gulf”, supplying over 213 billion barrels of oil (Blazevic 2012 84-85). China estimated over 100 billion barrels of oil buried under the Spratly Islands and another 100 billion barrels of oil under the rest of the seabed in the South China Sea. Although the estimates seem somewhat exaggerated contrary to the United Nations report on the South China Sea, it still plays a role in reducing PRC’s reliance on foreign energy imports. It is important to note that maintaining the constant supply of energy resource is the primary concern for all nations. Therefore, securing and expanding its sovereignty over the region is the stepping stone that PRC has to take in order to stay on top of the international competition.

PRC政治局也从历史角度看待其在海洋中的婚姻和外交行动；他们的决定是对中国经历的百年屈辱的迟缓回应。换言之，撇开该地区能源潜力不谈，PRC领导人认为亚太地区具有安全重要性。这是因为中国过去在阻止敌对国家侵犯其主权领土方面无能为力，处于不利地位（Blazevic 2012 80）。纵观中国历史，不难理解PRC的动机和政治言论，这些都源于通过中国南海和东海遭受外国侵略的悠久历史。4. 在亚太战场上发动一场神经战_佐世保海上自卫队资料馆

To sum up, there are complex reasons including security and economic interests and historical context that account PRC’s obsession towards the Asia-Pacific region, especially South-East China Sea. Therefore, it is rational enough for PRC to relentlessly endeavor to break the balance and establish a different paradigm in the region that is favorable to them.

Military Capabilities According to the figure

3.1, it shows that Asia- Pacific region is the congregation of military powers that could escalate into a major war if not contained. It is important to note China’s growing military presence in the region. Although the figures are not enough to pinpoint the modernization of PRC military, the figure

alone yet sufficiently

Figure 3.1. Military Personnel stationed in the accounts that PRC

Asia-Pacific Region

surpasses other military

capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region. Moreover, since I am mainly concentrating on the naval powers in the region, PRC by far has a great number of Naval personnel and assets that could tip the balance of power in the Pacific if they are destined to do so.

I will further analyze another major actor, the United States. Figure 3.2 shows the number of the US military personnel and assets deployed in the Asia-Pacific region. Although the figure does not indicate the level of military modernization, it at least gives the rough numbers that the United States forces serve as a major contestant of PRC in the Asia-Pacific region. To elaborate, the United States primarily deployed its troops and assets on the East side of the Pacific theater; US Military powers in Japan, Guam, Hawaii, and South Korea are detrimental to the region’s balance of power.

It is important to

clarify that the potential conflict in the Asia- Pacific will not escalate between the two major powers, but a bipolar conflict lead by the two major powers and their allies. In this respect, the sheer consequence of breaking the balance of power in the region will not only mark an end to the safe transit of goods

accompanying Figure 3.2: US military personnel deployed in diplomatic hostilities in the Asia-Pacific Region

the region, but also

possibly engendering irreversible conflict that could destroy the entire area.

The United States

美国国防部已正式宣布其在亚太地区的首要目标：保护海洋自由，威慑冲突和胁迫，以及促进遵守国际法和标准（DoD 2015 1）。行政部门认为亚太地区持续的经济进步不仅对该地区而且对美国都至关重要。因此，维护亚太地区的经济秩序并建立其据点存在以防止任何危机破坏现状符合美国的利益。此外，考虑到亚太地区的海事安全环境符合所有国家4. 在亚太战场上发动一场神经战_佐世保海上自卫队资料馆的利益，美国认为亚太地区可能发生的任何溢出效应都是不可容忍的（USPA COM 2017 2）。具体而言，如果该地区的秩序受到干扰，美国的任何盟友或伙伴都将受到严重影响，从而削弱商业运输。最后，美国维护亚太地区的国际法，以促进该地区的和平、稳定和繁荣。在这方面，严格遵守统一的规则有助于在美国的指导下实现亚太国家之间的和平。

While the United States currently holds the strategic advantage over other powers in the Asia-Pacific region, pointing PRC as one of their challenges in the Asia-Pacific region is important (USPA COM 2017 5). Admiral Harry B. Harris, the commander of U.S Pacific Command mentioned that “If USPACOM has to fight tonight, I don’t want it to be a fair fight. If it’s a knife fight, I want to bring a gun. If it’s a gunfight, I want to bring in the artillery of our allies.” The reason why I quote this statement is because the United States is attempting to break through its critical shortcomings present in the region: rapid militarization/fortification in the region especially PRC, critical munition shortages, and budget uncertainty. In this respect, the United States seeks to make use of diplomacy and strategic alliance to safeguard its interests in the region. In particular, the United States stressed the importance of trilateral military alliance (US-JP-KR) and Multi-Domain Battle (MDB) system.

In a nutshell, despite the growing power of PRC, the United States has been using means at its disposal to maintain strategic superiority in the Asia-Pacific region.

People’s Republic of China PRC’s ‘one belt-one

road’ initiative dictates expanding its leverage on other nations by establishing economic and military ties in the Figure 4. China growth rate of real gross

domestic product (GDP) Asia-Pacific region (Chohan 2017). This policy is mainly intended to undermine the United State’s influence on the Asia-Pacific theater by connecting the two main channels of commerce: the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and the ocean-based Maritime Silk Road (MSR). To illustrate, the initiative invites nations in the Asia-Pacific regions to cooperate and establish diplomatic ties with PRC; a bold move targeting a decrease in overall influence that the United States has over the region.

However, the economic situation in PRC is not as bright as it seems due to heavy governmental regulations on the domestic market (U.S-China ESRC 2017 1). On the other hand, there are also pros for such policies, the government has indirect control over the private entities thus allowing systematic advantage to extract core intelligence from the world market, especially in the United States (U.S-China ESRC 2017 2). PRC’s economic future heavily relies on the constant flow of foreign resources, especially on fossil fuels. This urgency implies that PRC has utmost interest in securing safe energy transit and safeguarding the commerce channels. However, PRC currently lacks in a strategic alliance to defend the region, which incentivizes them to construct and fortify artificial islands in the South China Sea. The leadership in PRC believes that the fortification of the Spratly Islands rules out potential armed conflict in the region because it acts as a deterrent effect on other claimant states in the Asia-Pacific region (Martinson 2017). On top of that, shrewdly counter-balancing in the Asia-Pacific region is long sat PRC’s maritime dispute strategy, which accounts the incongruities in Chinese behavior. The current leadership views the balance of power is slowly tilting towards their advantage thus making America more assertive and restless in the Asia-Pacific International Politics. They believe that the scale and intensity of any future crisis can be kept under control, the current government does not seek any disputes from escalating because it could imperil the current period of “strategic opportunity” (Martinson 2017).

PRC一直奉行两大战略扩大其海军实力：提高海军力量和采用区域4. 在亚太战场上发动一场神经战_佐世保海上自卫队资料馆海上执法力量。下表7.1和7.2显示了PRC海军力量的增长。

Figure 5.1. 2015 Regional Naval Figure 5.2. 2015 Regional

Combatants Comparison Maritime Law Enforcement

Comparison

The increase in the number of Regional Maritime Law Enforcement Forces or Coast Guard Units in the Asia-Pacific Region is worth noting because it indicates that all claimant states are expanding their non-military assets. This is significant because the figures verify that PRC is pursuing protracted war, “long-term, patient and comprehensive contest to master the strategic initiative” which allows PRC to evade any military conflict with the United States (Martinson 2017). By shunning unnecessary conflict with the United States, this allows PRC to acquire some time; increasing its sphere of influence in the region and improving military capabilities that would equally match with the United States in the likely future. To sum up, PRC is expansionary in aim, incremental by design, and realist in orientation. The future of PRC relies deeply on the area because its security and economic interests are too big to overlook. Rather than merely using military powers to influence the region in an abrupt manner, PRC has chosen an initiative that perpetuates soft and real powers. By building economic relationships and promoting ‘protracted war’ that will painstakingly off-balance the United States’ leverage on the Asia-Pacific theater, PRC leadership is looking forward to becoming the new hegemon in the region.

IV. US Fleet Activities Sasebo

The US Fleet Activities Sasebo

epitomizes the bilateral relationship between the United States and Japan. Although the current mission and objectives of the naval base do not clearly indicate its potential uses during any times of security crisis in the Asia-Pacific region, I foresee that the US Fleet Activities Sasebo can transform into a major location for U.S. Marines amphibious operations. Sasebo port harbors vessels of the Japan Maritime Self

Defense Forces and the United

Figure 6: The geographic location of States Seventh Fleet. Its prime

Sasebo

objective is to provide

logistical support to the naval

尤其是用于两栖作战的舰船（CNIC Commander Fleet Activities Sasebo History 2017）。目前驻扎在佐世保的舰船有“好人理查德”号（LHD-2）、“安克雷奇”号（LSD-46）、“哈珀斯费里”号（LSD-49）、“丹佛”号（LPD-9）、“复仇者”号（MCM-1）、“捍卫者”号（MCM-2）、“守护者”号（MCM-5）和“爱国者”号（MCM-7）（US Fleet Activities Sasebo Project Overview 2017）。这些舰船都属于两栖任务能力。自1889年以来，佐世保海军基地一直是日本帝国海军第三区司令部的所在地，拥有5万多名员工，为太平洋海军行动提供便利，并在第二次世界大战高峰期建造海军舰艇（World Port Source 2016）。1945年9月，在日本及其盟友（包括日本帝国海军）投降后，美国第5海军陆战师登陆佐世保，该港口现正式作为美国佐世保舰队活动中心。佐世保曾是一个小渔村，直到日本帝国海军上将东乡平八郎决定因其地理优势而将其建立为佐世保海军区。佐世保是一个天然的堡垒，可以战略性地抵御外国势力；它也是一个深水港，靠近中国和朝鲜，这解释了为什么佐世保在第二次世界大战结束前被日本军方领导层选为主要海军基地（CNIC 2017）。

To briefly list the historical context of the US Fleet Activities Sasebo, the port has long since been serving as the main launching point for the United Nations and the U.S. Forces during the Korean Civil War in 1950, homeporting Self Defense Forces after the Korean War, providing heavy support to the expanded U.S. Seventh Fleet during the Vietnam War in the 1970s, and playing a vital logistics role during Operation Desert Storm in 1990-1991 (World Port Source 2016). In this respect, the history of Sasebo explains its underlying features: a full operative naval base that could serve beyond the functions of logistical support, the main transfer or the starting point for the amphibious attacks in the Asia-Pacific theater. Although some may not agree my conjectures, it is evident that the Sasebo’s capacity is maintained in its lowest level. Therefore, it is rational enough to think that once the security in Asia-Pacific region is at peril, The United States Combined Forces in the Pacific have a reliable naval base on their side waiting to be ran fully operational.

V. Conclusion

Asia-Pacific region is the vital channel for global commerce as it is directly related to each nation’s economic activity and success. However, beyond economic interest in the region, PRC’s future hinges on securing and expanding its foothold in the region for it is directly related to their security interests as well. While both superpowers are waging a war without an actual fight, they are using any means at their disposal to contain each other in the Asia-Pacific theater. Since PRC has been fortifying military powers in the artificial islands in the South China Sea and proclaiming its ‘one belt-one road’ initiative which projects China’s economic power, I believe that the United States also has an option to fortify locations bearing strategic advantages like Sasebo Naval base. Regardless of the interdependence between the two nations, I stand in the realist point of view that there will be an ongoing war between the two great powers, whether it escalates into a full-scale military war or not, until one relinquishes its power to the other.

Reference United States of America Department of Defense. 2015. The Asia-

Pacific Maritime Security Strategy.

United Nations, 28 April 2011. Part V – Exclusive Economic Zone,

Article 56 Law of the Sea.

Statement of Admiral Harry B. Harris Jr., U.S. Navy Commander, U.S.

Pacific Command, 26 April 2017.

2017 Report to Congress of the U.S. – China Economic and Security

审查委员会、美中经济与安全4. 在亚太战场上发动一场神经战_佐世保海上自卫队资料馆

Review Commission, November 2017, One Hundred

Fifteenth Congress First Session

Andrew S. Erickson and Austin M. Strange, 2017. China’s Resources

驶入南海，纽约：Lynne Rienner出版社

（2017年），第131-152页。

Jason J. Blazevic，2012年。《驾驭安全困境：中国、

越南与南海》，《当代东南亚事务杂志》，第84-85页。

东南亚事务杂志》，第84-85页。

Usman W. Chohan，新南威尔士大学，2017年。《什么是

“一带一路”？一种剩余回收机制

方法

三名中国海军军官可能刚刚揭示了中国在

南海的意图》，Ryan Martinson和Katsuya

Yamamoto，《国家利益》（2017年12月5日）中国海军舰艇基地佐世保历史，美国海军官方网站，

网站，

https://www.cnic.navy.mil/regions/cnrj/installations/cfa_sas

ebo/about/history.html

美国海军佐世保基地项目概述，《海军技术》，

https://www.naval-

technology.com/projects/usfleetactivities/ 佐世保港评论与历史，《世界港口来源》（2016年3月17日）

http://www.worldportsource.com/ports/review/JPN_Port_of

_Sasebo_1413.php